Month: January 2025

This sounds great:

But you know what will be even better? Sometime in the medium future AI will have such a detailed understanding of human physiology—including all its variations—that it will be able to run virtual clinical trials. Anything that passes goes straight to Phase 3 human trials just to be 100% sure, and then gets approved. The entire pipeline will be reduced to a couple of years and will only go down from there.

How long until we get there? I don't know. Four or five years? This stuff is all closer than we think.

Revenge, revenge, revenge:

For all I know, Bolton doesn't need Secret Service protection anymore. But that hardly matters. It's obvious Trump didn't do this on the advice of professionals after careful consideration. He did it because Bolton has said mean things about him.

It's revenge, but it's also a message to everyone else. I have the power to hurt you in ways you can't imagine. Be careful.

I have a bonus cat for you this week. This one is from Les Andelys in France, one of the stops on our Seine cruise. He was only slightly sociable and walked with a limp, but his fur was shiny and his eyes were clear. He obviously got along OK one way or another.

OK, folks, here's my first embed of a Bluesky post:

Bergstrom is a biology professor, but I'm not sure what he's getting at here. There's no "retreat." Gamete size has long been the biological definition of sex among complex organisms (like mammals). In simple terms, the large gamete is the egg and the small gamete is the sperm. If you produce eggs you're female. If you produce sperm you're male.¹

There's nothing controversial about this—or shouldn't be. The controversy is over gender, the social presentation of sex among humans. Regardless of your biological sex, you can choose to present yourself as anything you please.

Most liberals think society should accept whatever presentation you prefer. Most conservatives think you should be legally treated as whatever your biological sex is. That's the controversy, and it's why Donald Trump's executive orders about trans people are so destructive. He aims to have the government prohibit the free expression of gender by main force. This is not something the government of a free people should be doing.

But leave biology out of it. It is what it is, and denying it does nothing to help the cause.

¹If you produce both you're a hermaphrodite. Humans are not hermaphrodites. No mammals are hermaphrodites.

Israel may have reduced much of Gaza to rubble, but Hamas is still up and running:

Under the cease-fire agreement struck last week, police overseen by Hamas will assume responsibility for managing law and order among Palestinians generally.... The police officers can carry weapons only when necessary and would be monitored by teams of Egyptian and other Arab observers.... The Hamas forces are supposed to wear distinct blue uniforms, and their numbers will vary based on the population densities of different areas.

....A major point in the first phase of the cease-fire revolves around significantly increasing the amount of aid entering Gaza, with Hamas patrolling major routes and accompanying aid trucks and distributors.... “There have been security forces out on the streets, and they are more visible around the main junctions, which is something they have not been able to do without the risk of being killed for several months,” Sam Rose, a senior official with the U.N. Relief and Works Agency, the largest aid group in Gaza, said in a phone interview from the enclave.

So not only is Hamas still around, they get to build up popular support by going after gangs and producing enough law and order to allow aid trucks to enter and distribution centers to function.

Can Israel destroy Hamas faster than it can reconstitute itself? I wonder. It's hardly conceivable that any military group could suffer as comprehensive a defeat as Hamas, and it's equally inconceivable that Israel could conduct a war even more brutal. And yet, after 16 months Hamas seems no closer to giving up than ever.

Yesterday Donald Trump issued a pair of executive orders that were generally described as ending the "weaponization of government" and stopping "censorship." That seemed largely symbolic and they were mostly ignored.

So imagine my surprise when I actually read them. They're far from symbolic and have nothing to do with ending anything. They're both full-on revenge orders to begin investigating the Biden administration. Here's the first one:

The American people have witnessed the previous administration engage in a systematic campaign against its perceived political opponents.... The prior administration and allies throughout the country engaged in an unprecedented, third-world weaponization of prosecutorial power to upend the democratic process. It targeted individuals who voiced opposition to the prior administration’s policies with numerous Federal investigations and politically motivated funding revocations, which cost Americans access to needed services. [etc.]

....The Attorney General, in consultation with the heads of all departments and agencies of the United States, shall take appropriate action to review the activities of all departments and agencies exercising civil or criminal enforcement authority of the United States, including, but not limited to, the Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Federal Trade Commission, over the last 4 years.... The Director of National Intelligence, in consultation with the heads of the appropriate departments and agencies within the Intelligence Community, shall take all appropriate action to review the activities of the Intelligence Community over the last 4 years.... [etc.]

And here's the second one:

Over the last 4 years, the previous administration trampled free speech rights by censoring Americans’ speech on online platforms, often by exerting substantial coercive pressure on third parties, such as social media companies, to moderate, deplatform, or otherwise suppress speech that the Federal Government did not approve. Under the guise of combatting “misinformation,” “disinformation,” and “malinformation,” the Federal Government infringed on the constitutionally protected speech rights of American citizens across the United States in a manner that advanced the Government’s preferred narrative about significant matters of public debate. Government censorship of speech is intolerable in a free society.... [etc.]

Does anyone still think Biden was wrong to preemptively pardon the J6 committee and other vulnerable Democrats? These EOs are plain as day: Trump plans a witch hunt targeting every paranoid grievance of the MAGA crowd as amplified by Fox News and the rest of conservative media. He's going after the FBI for searching Mar-a-Lago. He's going after the Justice Department for prosecuting both him and the J6 rioters. He's going after anyone who fought vaccination conspiracy theories. He's going after the SEC and others for investigating crypto fraud. He's going after the FTC for pursuing antitrust actions against big tech companies.

This is unprecedented. It's clearly the first step in looking for individuals to prosecute for the crime of doing things that upset Trump and his supporters. It's legit fascist revenge fantasy—except it's no fantasy. Biden probably should have preemptively pardoned the entire federal government.

A friend sent me a copy of the 2025 Edelman Trust Barometer and it's a great example of the liberal fixation on doomsaying. The entire report is about a "generation of institutional failures" that has produced plummeting trust and a surge in grievance even though the report's own data says exactly the opposite.

On page 6 the message is that elections "fail to improve trust," a melodramatic way of saying that nothing changed:

Page 8 declares an "unprecedented global decline" in employer trust even though their own chart shows only a one-year change of three points that still leaves trust up over the past seven years:

It gets worse. Page 9 declares that the poor are "mired in distrust." But their trust has gone five points since 2012 while trust among the affluent has gone up a healthy twelve points:

Finally, here's a weird chart that's a little hard to decipher. Sorry about that. But what it shows is that over the past five years the public view of government has improved considerably. People view government as 11 points more competent and 13 points more ethical than they did in 2020:

In fact, every institution has improved on both metrics. Not bad.

This is typical think tank work. Everything is presented in the worst possible way. Everything is a crisis. Everything is getting worse.

And sure, some of these numbers aren't great. But numbers in isolation don't mean much, especially for a fuzzy concept like trust. The only thing that matters is how they've changed over time—and in this case change has been uniformly for the better.

But I suppose it's hard to raise money if there's no crisis to sell.

For all the Republicans who kvetched constantly over the past four years about Joe Biden's "unlawful" behavior, I'd like to remind you that in one day Donald Trump has:

1. Pardoned hundreds of violent criminals solely because they're MAGA supporters.
2. Explicitly declared that he wouldn't enforce a law he's legally required to enforce.
3. Redefined birthright citizenship in a way he knows very well is unconstitutional.
4. Declared two national emergencies that patently don't exist.
5. Unilaterally renamed an international body of water he has no authority to rename.
6. Promised to "take back" the Panama Canal, a clear treaty violation in defiance of both domestic and international law.

Is Donald Trump acting unlawfully? Let's hear it.

I've seen an outpouring of outrage today about pardons. In particular, Joe Biden pardoned several family members and a bunch of Democratic politicians. Sacré bleu! What kind of a precedent does this set for Donald Trump?

I get this—but only up to a point. Does anyone even remember Trump's pardon record from four years ago? You probably remember part of it: all the cronies and friends who were granted clemency, mostly at the end of his term. Here they are:

Michael Flynn	Paul Manafort	Roger Stone
Rod Blagojevich	Joe Arpaio	Dinesh D'Souza
Conrad Black	Bernie Kerik	Steve Bannon
George Papadopoulos	Charles Kushner	Scooter Libby
Alex van der Zwaan	Michael Milken

But wait! Do you also remember that Trump pardoned seven former Republican congressmen solely because they were Republicans?

Chris Collins	Duncan Hunter	and his wife
Rick Renzi	Robin Hayes	Mark Siljander
Steve Stockman	"Duke" Cunningham	and his wife

These weren't just formal pardons, either. The first four were actually in prison or on probation when they were pardoned.

And that's not all. Trump also pardoned a massive number of other Republican fundraisers and lower-level politicos, many of them people who had donated money directly to Trump. Hold your breath:

Patrick Nolan	Angela Stanton-King	David Safavian
Paul Pogue	Alfonso Costa	Philip Kay Lyman
Mary McCarty	John Tate	Jesse Benton
Paul Erickson	Elliott Broidy	Tommaso Buti
George Gilmore	William Henry	Douglas Jemal
Kenneth Kurson	Michael Liberty	Glen Moss
Hillel Nahmad	Casey Urlacher	Albert Pirro
Jonathan Braun	Eliyahu Weinstein

And even that's not all. Trump had a real weakness for pardoning people guilty of Medicare fraud, Medicaid fraud, hospital fraud, and various other forms of health care scams. Most of them were from Florida, coincidentally enough.

He was also partial to pardoning police officers, military members, and military contractors who were convicted of unlawful behavior. This was apparently his way of showing that MAGA had no patience with woke ideas that constrained the conduct of our police and fighting men.

Here's his record, as told by the world's greatest font of information:

Since 1921, only two Presidents granted fewer clemencies than Trump.... Of the pardons and commutations that Trump did grant, the vast majority were to persons to whom Trump had a personal or political connection, or persons for whom executive clemency served a political goal.

....Of the 237 grants of clemency by Trump, only 25 came through the Office of the Pardon Attorney's process (which at the end of Trump's presidency had a backlog of 14,000 applications); the other clemency recipients came to Trump's attention through an ad hoc process at the Trump White House that benefited clemency applicants with money or connections to Trump allies, friends, and family members. Most of Trump's pardons and commutations were granted to people with personal or political connections to him.

....A late December 2020 analysis by Harvard Law School's Jack Goldsmith determined that "seven of the 94 Trump grants came on recommendation from the pardon attorney" and "at least 84 out of 94 Trump pardons had a personal or political connection to the president."

....Trump's use of the pardon power was marked by an unprecedented degree of favoritism. He frequently granted executive clemency to his supporters or political allies, or following personal appeals or campaigns in conservative media.... Many of Trump's grants of clemency were criticized by the federal agents and prosecutors who investigated and prosecuted the cases.

....Many wealthy individuals paid tens of thousands of dollars to former advisors to Trump for them to lobby Trump to grant pardons, bypassing the review process of the Office of the Pardon Attorney. Trump former personal lawyer John M. Dowd was hired by a number of convicts to lobby Trump for clemency, taking advantage of his direct access to Trump's White House Counsel's Office. Matt Schlapp, the chairman of the American Conservative Union and a lobbyist close to Trump administration, also lobbied Trump for clemency on behalf of their clients.

If you want to trash Biden for his pardons, that's fine. He deserves (some of) it. But spare me any crocodile tears about the terrible precedent he's setting. Four years ago Trump did infinitely worse than Biden and nobody was wailing and crying back then for a constitutional amendment to restrain the pardon power. Hell, Trump also did far worse than Biden this very day.

If you were on the bandwagon to impeach Trump over his pardons four years ago, you can go to town on Biden. If you weren't, I really don't want to hear from you.

Donald Trump has promised a blizzard of executive orders on Day 1. Some he's already signed while others are still waiting. Here's a list of the most important ones, along with my best read of how much impact they'll have.

Executive Order	Likely Outcome
End birthright citizenship	Dead in the water. Both the 14th Amendment and Supreme Court precedent are clear on this. With a few very narrow exceptions, if you're born on US soil, you're a US citizen.
Order of non-enforcement regarding TikTok ban	Questionable. Trump doesn't appear to have any authority to refuse enforcement of a properly passed law. But the order only lasts for 75 days, so unless a court overturns it in record time it's a moot point.
Declare an emergency on the southern border	Complicated. Presidents have broad authority to declare emergencies, but this would be a tough one since illegal immigration has dropped substantially over the past year. The president also has to specify exactly which authorities he's invoking that allow him to take the specific actions he proposes. Trump tried to use this during his first term to pull money from the Pentagon to fund the wall and he was shot down in court. So this is all pretty iffy, though Trump has considerable authority over immigration with or without emergency powers.
Stop asylum appointments	Unclear. Trump can certainly shut down the CBP One app that allows asylum seekers to make appointments, but that was just a scheduling tool. Asylum seekers can still show up and request asylum any time. There's no telling what impact this will have.
End CHNV parole program	Definitely something Trump can do. This will end Biden's program that allows limited legal, temporary immigration of Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans. It amounted to 30,000 immigrants per month.
Reinstate "Remain in Mexico."	Unclear. It can only happen with the cooperation of the Mexican government, which Trump doesn't have yet.
Withdraw from Paris Treaty	Definitely legal. Beyond symbolism, however, it's not clear what real-world impact this has.
Withdraw from the World Health Organization	I suppose this is legal. But what an idiotic pander to his COVID-pilled base.
Transgender rollbacks	This includes: allowing only natal birth sex on official documents like passports; defunding transition medical care in Medicaid; moving trans prisoner to facilities for their natal sex; and ending requirements to use preferred pronouns. Most of this is probably legal, but maybe not. It will end up in court for a while.
J6 pardons	There's no question about this. Trump can pardon anyone he wants.
End DEI programs	Trump can do this, but only within the federal government. It will likely be challenged in court.
Schedule F	Unclear. This order creates a new schedule for about 4,000 high-ranking bureaucrats who are currently civil servants. Instead of having permanent jobs, they would be considered political appointees who can be replaced at the start of every administration. This will be tested in court, and it's hard to predict whether it will pass muster.
Declare a national energy emergency	As with the southern border, this is complicated. It's also even harder to justify since the US is currently awash in energy. This will certainly be challenged in court and there's a pretty good chance Trump could lose.
End Biden's temporary freeze on new approvals for LNG exports	Trump can do this. However, it probably doesn't matter much since a judge has already overturned the freeze.
End Biden's EV mandate	Biden's "mandate" is actually a steady increase in mileage standards, which eventually get high enough that gasoline cars can't qualify. Trump can certainly roll this back, but he has to go through the same rulemaking procedures that Biden went through to enact them, so it could take a couple of years. Unless he invokes emergency authority, that is. As above, this would be iffy.
Force federal workers to show up in the office.	Trump has the authority to do this, though there might be issues with union contracts.
Rename Denali Mt. McKinley and rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America	Trump can rename the mountain since it's American territory, but the Gulf of Mexico isn't—and the International Hydrographic Organization clearly recognizes it as the Gulf of Mexico. But there's some promising news for Trump. Thanks to endless squabbling between Japan and South Korea, the IHO has given up on naming and is moving to a system of identifying bodies of water solely by number. So in a few years perhaps the sea to our south will just be the Gulf of 26 and everyone can be satisfied.
"Empower consumer choice in vehicles, showerheads, toilets, washing machines, lightbulbs and dishwashers"	I guess this is legal? But it might run into rulemaking requirements (drafts published, public comment period, etc.).
"American landmarks will be named to appropriately honor our Nation’s history"	What?
Temporary hiring freeze	This is standard stuff. Plenty of other presidents have done it.
Rollback of Biden orders	Also standard stuff. Every new president does it.
Directives galore	Trump has one to address the cost of living. Another to restore freedom of speech. Another to end the weaponization of government. These are meaningless, nothing more than Trump expressing his opinions.