Charles Gaba tweeted out the following chart today:
States that voted for Donald Trump have the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rates. But be careful. Here's a similar chart:
States with the lowest population density also have the lowest vaccination rate. The problem is that population density is highly correlated with support for Trump. So which is the real underlying cause of low vaccination rates: support for Trump or the presence of lots of rural voters? Or maybe it's something else entirely.
It's not impossible to untangle effects like this, but it's hard. And once you've done it, you still don't know for sure that you've accounted for every possible confounder. This was the point of my post earlier today about the historical source of Republican vaccine skepticism, which goes back for decades. It might have something to do with conservatism. It might have something to do with Republicanism. But it almost certainly has very little to do with Trumpism.
I'll guess most of those not getting vaccinated in the more crowded states are still conservatives, irrespective of rurality.
In addition to the other point that social conservatives have a high level of revulsion to things that offend bodily integrity, in this case the simple association of this vaccine with an obvious and aggressive ailment and descriptions of possible side effects, where taking it is to admit the threats' existence and thereby giving it power and making them paranoid; there is also anti-vaxxism; virtue-signalling to their fellow idiots, their own loud talk boxing them in; and the social conservatives' fundamental drive to think that they're getting away with something, because they think everyone else is getting away with something, a magical privilege being denied them.
So, add that all up and you have almost every wingnut assuming it's a good thing he won't win this lottery.
That last line is not italicized, it just looks that way.
Read it in it's intended, unstressed manner, via the mental editing function.
States with higher populations should have bigger dots in plots like these, and be weighted for purposes of finding the linear fit.
I appreciate Gaba labeling the points so I can look for the biggest states: CA, TX, FL, and NY. I don't think it makes sense to put much focus on Rhode Island.
So is Kevin saying that if Trump had made a big fuss about how great the vaccine is and if he and his family made public service ads showing them getting the vaccine and advising his supporters that it was their duty as patriotic Americans to get the vaccine that it wouldn’t have much of any effect on Republican reluctance to get the vaccine?
Because if that’s what he’s saying I think he is wrong.
Population density (as opposed to dense mentality) may well have something to do with it, but it would be more valuable to have a more granular look than at a statewide population per square mile. Percentage of population in urban/suburban/rural, whatever. You can always plot an X and a Y on a chart and draw a line. Not sure it's as meaningful in this situation.
So this has nothing to do with Trump constantly lying about and downplaying the pandemic?
Also undermining public health officials and their messaging and guidance.
Top three states for Covid deaths per capita -- NY, NJ, MA.
What's your point?
Hmm. Hard to think of any other reason for that.
/s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_rapid_transit_systems_by_ridership
Sort by "riders per mile". The three states with the densest subway systems had the highest covid deaths per capita. Imagine that. Putting a sick person in a subway car full is an effective way to spread airborne diseases. Who woulda thunk?
Weirdly, if you compare subway riders in other countries your connection fails.
Which is probably why you didn't mention it.
Washington, DC breaks your theory. Second highest ridership in the nation yet COVID rates for DC/Maryland/Virginia were not bad because a lot of the workforce was in jobs that went to maximum telework in early March.
He's a cult leader and if he had been enthusiastic about masks from the beginning there would obviously be less resistance. Who knows how much.
In the previous post Kevin showed that the difference between Republicans and Democrats increased for covid compared to previous vaccines. There is undeniably a partisan difference. Why did this difference increase? Clearly it became a partisan issue and that was due primarily to Republicans. Again, it is Republicans' practice to seize on any conceivable non-economic issue to increase partisanship and distract from how their economic policies are designed to benefit the rich. Trump's own personal role is somewhat ambiguous, since he claims credit for vaccine development. But Trumpism is itself a highly polarizing thing, and obviously has made Republican voters increase their tendency to take sides on every issue on irrational cultist grounds.
The fact that it was Democrats who increased their tendency to get the vaccine is irrelevant - the nature of the pandemic and the unprecedented efficacy of the mRNA vaccines should have made everybody more amenable to getting vaccinated.
The plot that you mention seemed to roughly show an increase in partisan polarization in vaccination rates with time. That is quite consistent with the increasing political polarization with time, and would indicate political polarization driving the difference in vaccination rates.
And: Trumpism is the final stage of the polarization. Hence, Trumpism is responsible.
Did Democrats increase their tendency to get the vaccine or did Republicans take up rejection with a vengeance?
Nope. Your wrong. Notice how many of those states have low population density. They are lower educated, low density white states. In Oregon, it's college educated are liberal antivaxxers with college educated Republicans destroying them in vaccine rates.
The low population density states have a large scatter in vaccination rates. A closer examination of the scatter should throw light on how strong a bearing politics has on vaccination rates.
Um, yeah, the graph by vote pretty clearly has a lower error-squared value than the graph by density.
There is no clean distinction between Trumpism and Republicanism. Trumpism is the final consequence of Nixon's Southern Strategy ("Bigots all over the country unite!").
This is why the argument that Trumpism is somehow not responsible for Republican vaccine "hesitancy" does not fly.
Incorrect. Trumpism is a blown up doll version of neoconservatives who want all Zionism to unite. You still don't get it.
The Gaba graph is an actual graph.
The second graph is just a load of rubbish. Most States fall in the "low" density category, so one can't just randomly plot a X-axis line. Bad graph leading to bad conclusion.
Yeah, drawing the line based on those heavily weighted outliers isn't sound.
Nope. You need to break down by demographics. East Coast white Republicans with a college degree are higher vaccinated than east coast white democrats with a college degree.
You still don't get it.
More urban and condensed+education post high school=more vaccinated. Alabama which isn't nearly as post high school educated or urbanized, is much lower than New Jersey. No sheet??? Likewise, Vermont and New Hampshire are vastly more post HS educated than Wyoming or Idaho. Sheet, look at the difference between neighbor Montana, which has more college grads.
Do you have a citation for that? Age-corrected?
Let me make it simple: Trump voters with a post-HS degree, pro-covid vax. Trump voters with HS or less anti-covid vax. Got it yet???
LOL! Of course not. Anti-semitic trolls don't need no stinkin' citations. Trolls gotta troll.
Thanks for doing this. Gaba's slope is higher, so, presumably, political affiliation is more closely associated than logistical challenges.
Two thoughts:
-- I still think the county-level is a better measure against density.
-- Do a 3D graph measuring vaccination rates against both vote-gap and density.
Politics does have a lot to do with it. I live in a rural area of France where anti-vaxxers are mostly leftwing. It becomes a ridiculous purity test. I have friends I no longer talk to about vaccines. I'll be a traitor, a sellout to big pharma, how can I do that to my kids, and so on. I'm sick of it. I assume the same is true in the heartland of MAGA. A debate that should be about science becomes one about political identity. Same is true with mask mandates. In the US it's Trump followers who refuse to wear one. Here it's almost always a progressive. Why? Politics.
In my small circle of friends and family, the only ones not getting vaccinated are avowed trump lovers. And I really don’t care much if they get sick. I don’t have any physical contact with them. They live in other parts of the country form me. Good luck!
I don't understand why Trump supporters might be skeptical about getting the vaccine -- after all Trump, as he has repeatedly asserted, totally invented it by himself and only the yuuuuugeness of his brilliant leadership made it possible to have any vaccine at all, remember?
Trump speaks out of both sides of his mouth with impunity. Trump supporters could go either way with the vaccine, but the “Libs” want them vaccinated so they will do the opposite. With the current GQP owning the Libs is an end in itself.
Am I missing something? the correlation between Trump votes and vaccines is significantly stronger than the correlation with population density.