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Aid to Gaza is up either 100% or 4%

How much humanitarian aid is getting into Gaza? There are two sources for this: Israel itself (via COGAT) and the UN (via OCHA). Here's what they report recently:

Up through April 6 both sides mostly agree. Israel reports an average of 190 trucks per day while the UN reports an average of 170.

But after April 6 they wildly diverge. Israel claims that shipments have surged nearly 100%. The UN says they've gone up 4%.

What accounts for this? For one thing, the two sides count trucks differently. Israel counts trucks entering Gaza. Once there, the trucks unload everything and their pallets are then loaded onto Palestinian trucks. The UN counts the number of trucks that leave the loading area.

This should still be about the same, but the UN says that many of the entering trucks are only half full. When they're reloaded inside Gaza workers fill the trucks completely, which explains why they see fewer trucks leaving than Israel sees entering.

But that should have produced a steady difference, not a sudden change on April 6. Something else is at work here. But what?

Israel has loudly and persistently claimed that there is "no limit" to the amount of aid they allow into Gaza. The problem is distributing it. They say the UN is unable to distribute all the food and other types of aid that enter Gaza. In fact, Israel claims that more food enters Gaza now than before the war:

The UN says the "no limit" claim is true only in a hypertechnical sense. In reality, shipments are held up by: (a) onerous inspections, (b) a small number of entry points, (c) limited hours of operation, (d) slow approval of visas for aid workers, and (e) regular attacks on aid convoys, which naturally makes it hard to recruit workers.

There's no way to arbitrate these claims from 8,000 miles away. However, we do know that if plenty of food is getting in but it's not being distributed, warehouses in Gaza would be bursting at the seams by now. They don't seem to be. Beyond that, it's flatly inconceivable that twice as much food is being delivered as before the war. I'm not sure what games are being played here, but the UN seems to have the better of the argument.

43 thoughts on “Aid to Gaza is up either 100% or 4%

  1. Austin

    I don't know what Kevin's addiction to giving everyone the benefit of the doubt all the time is, but as I see it:

    The UN has little to no reason to lie. Sure, some of its members hate Israel and would like to cast it in a terrible light. But that's far outweighed by members who like Israel or are indifferent. And it would be a huge scandal if the UN was caught lying. So I conclude: they probably aren't lying much or at all.

    Since Israel is increasingly desperate to rehabilitate its reputation among Western nations after the whole "whoops we killed a bunch of aid workers" a few weeks ago... they have a much bigger reason to lie. And since Israel's number is so very different from the UNs, somebody must be lying here. So I conclude: Israel is lying.

    1. jeffreycmcmahon

      You don't need to do a lot of investigative reporting, they _clearly_ are lying, have been lying for decades, are not being particularly subtle about it, and their only goal is to provide just enough plausibility for the "there are two sides, who can say" crowd, of which KD is a member.

  2. Leo1008

    Once again Kevin has written a post about the Israel/Hamas war which does not even mention Hamas. And this post in particular focuses heavily on the logistics of aid within Gaza without once referring by name to the actual rulers of Gaza.

    At this point, I think it’s fair to just say that Kevin is biased against Israel. Worse: that bias is clearly affecting his judgement:

    “The UN says the ‘no limit’ claim is true only in a hypertechnical sense. In reality, shipments are held up by: (a) onerous inspections, (b) a small number of entry points, (c) limited hours of operation, (d) slow approval of visas for aid workers, and (e) regular attacks on aid convoys, which naturally makes it hard to recruit workers.”

    What else impacts delivery of aid within Gaza? Well, it’s impossible to answer that question if you’re determined to implicitly assert that Hamas has no agency in the area.

    But for anyone not expressing an obvious and possibly hopeless bias against Israel, there’s this to consider (from Newsweek):

    “An elderly woman in Gaza criticized militant group Hamas for taking humanitarian aid intended for Palestinians displaced by the ongoing conflict with Israel …

    “While Hamas has its supporters in Gaza and seeks to portray Israel as the Palestinians' only oppressors, some are occasionally able to express dissent towards the regime. Some Palestinian human rights activists have argued that Hamas was responsible for the high poverty rate in Gaza, using humanitarian aid to fund its attacks.”

    Hamas, of course, denies stealing aid. Seeing as how they’re a theocratic group of terrorists who have publicly and repeatedly asserted that they exist in order to perpetrate genocide, I’m not inclined to believe them. Nevertheless, I’ll admit that the issue is in dispute.

    But for Kevin to write on this topic and fail to even mention the possibility that Hamas is stealing aid? At best, that’s merely stupid. At worst, he’s a useful idiot for terrorists.

    And this is at least the third time that Kevin has written about the Israel/Hamas war without even mentioning Hamas. So after a while it gets impossible to avoid wondering if he isn’t suffering from a well-known and particularly insidious prejudice.

    Maybe he should stop listening to so much NPR (National Palestinian Radio), because I don’t think it’s doing him much good.

      1. ScentOfViolets

        Indeed. I've used -plonk- occaisionally in this, the modern era of the internets, but somehow, it's just not the same.

    1. kennethalmquist

      Kevin addresses this indirectly. “However, we do know that if plenty of food is getting in but it's not being distributed, warehouses in Gaza would be bursting at the seams by now. They don't seem to be.” If Hamas is sitting on tons of stolen food, where are they storing it?

      1. MF

        Well, first off they are certainly eating a lot of it. We keep hearing about how people in Gaza are suffering from malnutrition. I bet Hamas fighters are not losing weight.

        Secondly, they are probably stockpiling large amounts in tunnels, in homes, in offices, and yes, in warehouses to eat if aid is interrupted in the future.

        1. TheMelancholyDonkey

          Well, first off they are certainly eating a lot of it.

          You know this . . . how? If Hamas were eating more than a tiny fraction of the food, either the Israelis have drastically undercounted how many of them there are, or they can stop worrying, because all of Hamas's fighters are so bloated they can't move.

        2. ruralhobo

          A released Israeli hostage said food had become a problem after the pizzas of her first days in Gaza, but her Hamas captors got no more than she did. Also, she wasn't raped. Also, she was mostly afraid of Israeli bombings. Also, when there was a bombing dangerously nearby, her captors sheltered her with their own bodies. That doesn't prove they were good guys, of course. Just that a hostage was very precious. And also that, no, they weren't human animals out to rape young white women and no, they weren't getting lots to eat while others starved.

          Israel just makes up stuff and throws it out there. Even if Hamas raped hostages, they couldn't know that - but they said it anyway and it was repeated by the media.

          1. jeffreycmcmahon

            It is well documented that they raped plenty of people, whether or not they were also taken as hostages is pretty irrelevant.

            1. Coby Beck

              Citation, please? I'm not saying there were no instances of rape, and evena single one is heinous, but accusation of systematice rape and rape as a weapon are serious and should not be made without evidence. My understanding is that most of the initial accusations have turned out to be fabrication or based on very little.

              I would sincerely like to see substantiation of this now taken for granted accusation, if you have it.

      2. Leo1008

        @ kennethalmquist:

        “Kevin addresses this indirectly.”

        That’s not good enough.

        A significant segment of the Left is ablaze with outright, explicit, and utterly contemptible statements of support for Hamas.

        Right here in the comments of this blog post there is at least one raving lunatic trying to deny the reality that Hamas terrorizes and rapes their victims. Whoever that commenter is (below), I want them to know how despicable I believe them to be.

        So it’s not enough to imply that maybe Hamas is engaging in some underhanded shenanigans.

        Kevin should in fact be ashamed of himself for writing several blog posts on the Israel/Hamas war (like this one) that not just fail to condemn Hamas but fail to even MENTION Hamas!

        And he should be called out for it in no uncertain terms. Such blog posts are deeply irresponsible. They are an embarrassment for the Left. And they are an embarrassment for anyone in these comments who fails to admonish him.

        1. TheMelancholyDonkey

          "I have no valid defense for Israel on the charges made, so I'm going to bluster and distract."

          The, "But you didn't mention this other thing that I'm obesessed with," is always a weak argument.

        2. Coby Beck

          "A significant segment of the Left is ablaze with outright, explicit, and utterly contemptible statements of support for Hamas."

          I don't think you understand what the word "significant" means. Meanwhile, mainstream media, senators, congress people, the Isreali government are all ablaze with outright, explicit, and utterly contemptible statements of support for mass starvation and genocide.

    2. ProbStat

      Once again Leo1008 had written a comment in which he failed to note that Israel is a settler colonial state that was founded through ethnic cleansing.

    3. jeffreycmcmahon

      The actual (de facto, not de jure) rulers of Gaza are the IDF. They are an occupying military force that has destroyed any kind of civilian governmental infrastructure that may have previously existed. The former military government (Hamas) only exists in pockets on the ground, and in Qatar.

  3. Coby Beck

    "There's no way to arbitrate these claims from 8,000 miles away."

    I think we are well and truly beyond the point where there is simply no reason to credit any IDF statement that contradicts a UN or aid group statement.

    Seriously, it is like asking whether or not Trump's penthouse actually is 30,000 sq ft.

    1. MF

      I don't follow. What is the problem here?

      I do not think anyone denies that in this second raid on al-Shifa there were plenty of Hamas fighters there and that the Israelis were in near constant fire fights with them.

      If you turn a hospital into a strong point for your fighters it is no longer protected under the laws of war.

      1. ruralhobo

        I do deny it. There were Hamas fighters NEAR Al Shifa and that's where the fighting took place. In the hospital itself there was no "fighting", only slaughter.

      2. jeffreycmcmahon

        Have you considered that just because a "law of war" says something is acceptable, it still might not be a good idea, militarily, politically, or ethically?

        1. MF

          Sure.

          But given that there were hundreds of Hamas fighters there and that this seems to have been a very effective operation, killing and capturing 700+ (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Shifa_Hospital_siege), I think this operation was a good idea militarily, politically, and ethically. The only people now claiming that al-Shifa was not a military installation are blatant anti-Semites with little or no credibility..

          1. TheMelancholyDonkey

            I'm sure that there were some fighters there, but anyone who accepts Israeli claims at face value is a credulous fool. It's documented that the IDF's figures as to the number of Hamas militants they have killed is significantly inflated by declaring that Palestinians for whom there is no evidence that they were guilty of anything being posthumously declared to be terrorists.

            Then again, it surprises me not at all that you are a credulous fool.

            https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-03-31/ty-article-magazine/.premium/israel-created-kill-zones-in-gaza-anyone-who-crosses-into-them-is-shot/0000018e-946c-d4de-afee-f46da9ee0000

      3. Coby Beck

        I seriously doubt there was any Hamas militant presence there at all, wounded patients excepted. We will certainly never be shown any evidence of such.

        My effort was poor, but what I meant to highlight was the evidence of total, wanton destruction juxtaposed with the Isreali propoganda footage showing an IDF soldier making a bed. Isreal knows its idiot supporters (there are non-idiot supporters as well) will swallow any bullshit they put out. Do you think any armed combatant fighting a hated, sub-human (in their eyes) enemy is pausing to fold their blankets?

        Isreal is carrying out one of the worst atrocities since the Holocaust and telling us they are the world's most moral army. As one of the idiot supporters, MF, Bibi is laughing at you.

  4. Solar

    Given their history, Israel is as trustworthy as Trump, so why would anyone believe a single thing they say?

    Having said that, even if Israel's dishonesty wasn't an issue, their method of counting is simply nonsensical. It's the equivalent of counting sales by counting the number of trucks bringing items into a store instead of the trucks leaving with the items actually sold.

  5. Traveller

    Another case of the Dog that doesn't Bark.

    Israeli Arabs consists of about 21.6 percent of the total Israeli population and this population scattered up and down the coast and throughout Israel proper don't seem exactly eager to help usher in a Hamas governance inside Israel....and probably rightly so, there is no freedom under Hamas, and the people, Western people also would not survive long under Hamas. (this does not obtain in the West Bank, of course, but all t hings considered, the WB has remained remarkably calm.

    I wonder why people don't try to project what living in a Hamas ruled society would be like?

    I am a little irritated that the UN has failed in its mandate to keep Southern Lebanon free of Hezbollah and Israeli's...in fact.... Kofi Annan stated that "Some Hezbollah positions remained in close proximity to United Nations positions, especially in the Hula area, posing a significant security risk to United Nations personnel and equipment."[20]

    This is an old habit.

    Not that I blame them...it is a smart tactic all in all. Traveller

    1. Coby Beck

      "but all t hings considered, the WB has remained remarkably calm."

      No. This is from wikipedia, all statements are cited in foot notes at the bottom:

      "During the Israel–Hamas war, Israeli forces have carried out multiple ground incursions, occasionally accompanied by airstrikes, into several Palestinian cities and refugee camps in the West Bank, including Jenin and Tulkarm.[32] The Israeli incursions have led to clashes with Palestinian militants. Over 200 Palestinians have been killed by Israel since the conflict began, including 75 children.[33] Israel has arrested more than 7,210 Palestinians since 7 October 2023.[34] On 15 December, Doctors Without Borders reported 2023 was the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank in recorded history.[35]"

      1. Traveller

        Yes, there have been disturbances in the West Bank....I'm not sure if 200 dead is a high number or a small one.

        Regardless, Israel could open talks for quasi-sovereignty tomorrow, with both good and bad effects.

        1. Let us join hands and start to build a Palestinian state, you need separate courts, separate police

        2. No, sovereignty does not mean you get to buy rockets from Iran or militarize the WB...today, and maybe never.

        3. Water Rights to the Jordan need to be negotiated...if CA, AZ and CO can do it, so can we.

        4. Yes, Israel will have to move north of 100,000 settlers out of the WB....but those that refuse to leave, you must protect them and treat them justly.

        5. No, you do not get East Jerusalem or especially the Old City. If this is a a deal breaker for you, let us make what deals we can make and agree to go to war over East Jerusalem at a later, agreed upon time.

        ********

        This is how you make peace.

        Best Wishes, Traveller

        1. TheMelancholyDonkey

          In other words, the Israelis are going to continue to pretend that they have offered the Palestinians sovereignty.

          And, of course, you have failed to mention the over a thousand Palestinians that have been terrorized into fleeing their homes while Israeli security forces stand by and watch the settlers loot and burn.

          1. Traveller

            No, I have been very clear....we all need to stop lying with words we ourselves don't belief (or I don'think you yourself believes in full Sovereignty....but maybe you do...if your PA state gets to buy Iranian rockets to kill Israeli's, you need to specify this).

            De militarized WB....forceably remove 100,000's of thousands of Settlers....maybe not what you want, but what do you want? The 1967 borders?

            If this is your position, you need to say so....I will be honest with you....I will recommend more war.

            Best Wishes, Traveller

            1. TheMelancholyDonkey

              It isn't a question of what I want. But it's a simple fact: what you are saying the Palestinians should get is not sovereignty. You may think that it is all that they should get, but stop gaslighting us that it's sovereignty.

              1. Traveller

                No, I have called it Quasi-Sovereignty...which may itself be too strong a word.

                Mostly Autonomously Region? Palestinian authorities protect and enforce Palestinian rights?

                Are you in fact calling for full Sovereignty? If so say so! And over what? Where are the borders? How do they share the Jordan riparian rights?

                Or, lets try something easy...

                Under your full Sovereignty on the WB, do those Palestinians also have the Right of Return to Israel proper?

                Under my formulation of Quasi-Sovereignty do the Palestinians have a Right of Return?
                ^^^^^^^^
                I am trying to see if there is some commonality, some basis for negotiation here?

                There may or may not be....I am just trying to find out.

                Best Wishes, Traveller

                1. TheMelancholyDonkey

                  It isn't for me, or for you, to tell the Palestinians what they should want or settle for. But, if you are going to insist that they settle for less than an actual sovereign state, then no one should claim that they have been offered a state, or have ever rejected a two-state solution. Israel and its supporters constantly insist on doing both.

                  It's another place where Israel simply lies.

    2. ruralhobo

      "... the UN has failed in its mandate to keep Southern Lebanon free of Hezbollah and Israeli's".

      First, UN peacekeeping forces mostly keep warring parties apart (but only on the ground, as they have no means to take down missiles or airplanes). Their role is not nation building. Second, while you are right that part of Unifil's mandate was nonetheless to help re-establish the authority of the state in the South, and that it failed to keep southern Lebanon free of Hezbollah, its UN mandate explicitly says they must do so to assist the Lebanese army and not on their own. Thus if the army doesn't go there, Unifil can't either.

      I think your irritation at them is misplaced. They've done a good job with a curtailed mandate and with very few military means compared to Israel and Hezbollah.

    3. jeffreycmcmahon

      "I wonder why people don't try to project what living in a Hamas ruled society would be like?"

      I wonder why this strawman isn't getting more attention?

  6. ProbStat

    I'm old enough to remember when other racists liked to point out that South Africa's Blacks under the Apartheid system were still better off in many ways than the Blacks in neighboring countries.

  7. Salamander

    I'm surprised our US journalists take Israel's claims totally at face value, no corroboration, fact checking, or investigation needed, after they've been burned so many times. Probably some kind of "IOKIIDI" thing.

    (It's Okay If Israel Does It)

    1. Coby Beck

      CNN at least runs all of its coverage through the IDF Censor for approval.

      every CNN journalist covering Israel and Palestine must submit their work for review by the news organization’s bureau in Jerusalem prior to publication, under a long-standing CNN policy.
      [...]
      Like all foreign news organizations operating in Israel, CNN’s Jerusalem bureau is subject to the rules of the Israel Defense Forces’s censor, which dictates subjects that are off-limits for news organizations to cover, and censors articles it deems unfit or unsafe to print. [...] In order to obtain a press pass in Israel, foreign reporters must sign a document agreeing to abide by the dictates of the censor.

  8. Traveller

    Be honest about the letter....it specifies that Siege Warfare is allowed under the Laws of War providing there are channels of escape for civilians.

    There is nothing illegal suggested in this letter...the execution of allowing civilians to leave is the problem....and I suppose would be in all forms of Siege Warfare.

    Best Wishes, Traveller

    1. ScentOfViolets

      Don't feed the troll; you're only giving it cover to insult both our inteligence and the English language more than it already has. One of our more offensive gits.

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