Washington DC is suddenly full of anonymous Democratic insiders who are dishing dirt on Joe Biden's parlous mental state. The New York Times rounds up a lot of them for a long story today, and if you read carefully one of the recurrent themes is that Biden's mental state has fallen off a cliff in just the last few months:
People in the room with him more recently said that the lapses seemed to be growing more frequent, more pronounced and more worrisome.... Last week’s debate prompted some around him to express concern that the decline had accelerated lately.... This person said Mr. Biden had shown a “sharp decline” since a meeting only weeks earlier.... A senior European official who was present said that there had been a noticeable decline in Mr. Biden’s physical state since the previous fall.
Politico described Biden as getting worse recently during routine briefings:
During meetings with aides who are putting together formal briefings they’ll deliver to Biden, some senior officials have at times gone to great lengths to curate the information being presented in an effort to avoid provoking a negative reaction. “It’s like, ‘You can’t include that, that will set him off,’ or ‘Put that in, he likes that,’” said one senior administration official. “It’s a Rorschach test, not a briefing. Because he is not a pleasant person to be around when he’s being briefed. It’s very difficult, and people are scared shitless of him.”
Angry outbursts are a bad sign. All of this is a bad sign. And it might explain why nobody talked about it until now: no one is going to tattle about occasional lapses, and it may be that Biden hasn't shown any serious cognitive issues until relatively recently.
In any case, if this is right it means things are going to get even worse in fairly short order. Unfortunately, Biden himself doesn't see it. When you start to lose your faculties, the first thing to go is your ability to recognize that you're losing your faculties.
as the likelihood of seeing harris at the top of the ticket is in the realm of possibility, i'm wondering who the best VP options might be
not sure how many top-tier candidates for 2028 would be willing to play VP, especially if you're already the top executive of a state
someone from the senate may find it more appealing, and of course a few representatives might be interested but not sure how much they'd bring to the ticket
jay inslee. mid60s, three term governor of washington, slight national profile from his 2019 primary campaign, unlikely to run in 2028 in event biden were to remain candidate & win reelection.
I think Inslee is terrific - he was my top choice for 2020. But I think he is also getting on in years.
What about Pete Buttigieg?
If he’s willing, how about Barack Obama?
no one seemed to like that idea 😉
even though the 22nd amendment text seems to allow it, the alito court would likely decide those words don't mean what they say
and i'm sure they'd come to that conclusion a lot faster than they did with the trump cases
No shit. They'd rule as soon as Obama's name was mentioned at the convention.
I wasn't thrilled when Biden announced his reelection campaign but this election, and 2020, isn't about either candidate but more how they'll govern. And because of that I cannot vote for the guy who NEEDS immunity to be president. Just look at the awful outcomes from the SC these past few years. I'm a Pennsylvania voter and will be voting for Biden even if he's in a coma
It's kinda amusing. By November, one might be in a coma, the other in an orange jumpsuit. You cannot make this stuff up.
With the postponement of Trump's sentencing, there is no chance he will be seeing a jail cell til 2025.
You and I and just about everybody in the left-liberal camp feels the same. But that leaves the question of whether he can get enough independents and swing voters to win.
The campaign has already been lackluster and has too often left the initiative to the other side. It will only get worse if half of what we are hearing about Biden's mental state is true.
I resisted it at first, but I am more and more coming around to saying he needs to cut the cord and give Kamala a shot. I hope Jill and his family will face the truth and convince him. He can retire now with a solid place in history, and his leaving could turn out to be his last best act.
Candidate Biden had one job, to beat Trump in the debates. And he failed, badly. No accident the Trump campaign is running adds against Kamala, but not Joe. They know which candidate they want to face.
My mother is a few years older than the President. She has trouble recalling words a lot. So you have to be patient when you speak with her as she also speaks more slowly. She is entirely within her proverbial faculties. She knows what she wants to say but has a hard time getting there.
I see the President facing the same issues. It's hard to know if he has real cognitive issues unless you know him well.
I always get annoyed when people seem to think the job of the President is to fist fight Putin or out debate someone. Neither skill is applicable to the actual job.
You're right -- "debate skills" are not part of the job description. What the presidential debates are, however, is an opportunity for the incumbent in particular to tout their accomplishments and really sell their record to the voters. Biden's superpower is that he has *gotten shit done* legislatively and politically and it has helped the American people even if a lot of them don't seem to know it yet. He had a huge chance the other night to lay out that record and contrast it with the four-year shitshow that was the Trump administration. His communication problems totally blew up that chance and by the time he seemed to have composed himself in the latter part of the debate, it was too late and all anyone remembers now is his argument with Trump over golf handicaps.
As I've said on a number of occasions, I don't think he has dementia, but he is having cognitive problems around speaking and expressing himself and it *has* gotten worse recently. Kevin's original point on that is probably right.
It's amazing how those comments describing Biden sound like the things people have said about Trump. He doesn't like to read, he doesn't like long briefings. He gets bored. Likewise, he doesn't like anything that isn't (in some way) related to him. He shouts a lot. Yep, that's Trump.
Don't listen to the nameless quotes, they're probably Republicans anyway.
Another trick the Republicans are trying to pull is to convince people Trump is already running things. He isn't. And when they refer to Joe Biden as “Uncle Joe”, that's preparation for comparisons of Donald Trump to “Uncle Joe” Stalin. I can easily imagine young Donnie thinking that maybe one day he can impress his father by growing up to be just like Fred Trump's hero, Joe Stalin.
Republicans are full of B.S. Just don't believe them. “Just say 'No' " and “He's a bad man”.
Has it occurred to any of our punditry that the reason Trump refuses to answer questions and instead gives his stump speech over and over is that he can't answer them? That people who are in advanced cognitive decline repeat themselves a lot? Why is the narrative Trump is just doing his stick-it-to-the-libs when not responding substantively to questions, instead of, what's going on upstairs with this guy?
Kevin, this is from Biden's interview with Stephanopoulos after the Afghanistan withdrawal three years ago:
STEPHANOPOULOS: So when you look at what's happened over the last week, was it a failure of intelligence, planning, execution or judgment?
BIDEN: Look, I don't think it was a fa-- look, it was a simple choice, George. When the-- when the Taliban -- let me back -- put it another way. When you had the government of Afghanistan, the leader of that government get in a plane and taking off and going to another country, when you saw the significant collapse of the ta-- of the-- Afghan troops we had trained -- up to 300,000 of them just leaving their equipment and taking off, that was -- you know, I'm not-- this -- that -- that's what happened.
Great post. Reminder that Bidens actions arent really new, this is the Joe Biden that has been around for the last several years. Hes been a poor, live speaker for a long time. Nobody really cared.
Whats new is the narrative that preceeded the debate and the medias eagerness to run with this story.
Trump raped a women and was convicted of a felony. But the media wasnt really interested in that storyline.
This is poorly done remake of the 2016 classic, "But her Emails!!"
Or the 2021 classic "Biden is weak on Afghanistan!"
A couple of thoughts if I may:
- I agree the steep decline is recent because people certainly felt even a few weeks ago he was on top of his game in Normandy or as close as he could get at that age. And yes, traveling as much as he did at that age is going to wear you out no matter how much re-coup time you get. But that's the dilemma the campaign faces: To run a "vigorous" campaign with lots of travel to show he can handle another four years will wear him out and thus what you saw in the debate will happen again
- I don't want to hear any recriminations bullshit. Like it or not and I've said it before, Joe Biden is the center of the Democratic Party and has kept remarkably unified and coherent for the past four years. Taking him out is going to be disruptive even for good cause and people will have to brace themselves for it. That's why I had no problem with him running for another term until I and what many others saw during the debate and afterwards. Nobody expected this even those worried about his decline have said he was far healthier last fall and throughout the winter. And running a primary campaign against him not based on serious policy differences but only on the fact that "well, you're too old", would be stupid.
- If Biden goes, you get Harris, period. Jim Clyburn has already said he will not stand for anyone trying to dump her and many Black party officials and activists feel the same way (especially females) and they have the pull right now because they feel strongly about it even if other Blacks outside the party don't. Besides, she is the only potential candidate with a campaign apparatus and money in place ready-to-go. None of the others do and it would be harder than hell to put one together overnight. Their chances are one-in-a-million and they know it and they're not going to waste their time or split the party, especially if Biden endorses Harris which I'm sure he will.
- Anyone talking about Lyndon Johnson has to realize this is a completely different situation. LBJ had thought seriously about not running for another term as far back as '66 and the fact that he was facing resounding defeat in the Wisconsin primary of '68, his health wasn't good, the economy was starting to falter, he couldn't attend events outside military bases due to demonstrators, his administration's policy in Vietnam was in a shambles after Tet, RFK's entry in the race and that peace negotiations were starting over Vietnam meant in his mind he could not run against his own party and conduct peace negotiations at the same time because anything he did even in the cause of peace would interpreted as "political" thus he decided to drop out. Even still, if you read Teddy White's book on the campaign, he almost jumped backed in just before the Democratic National Convention that year. And who was in a position to be succeed him? His Vice-President Hubert Humphrey who ultimately won the nomination for the same reasons Harris will if Biden drops out.
- There hasn't been the collapse in Biden polling some has predicted, at least not yet. He's behind yes but not to the extent where he can't catch up. If I was with Trump, I would be concerned about that.
The big difference with LBJ is LBJ would have easily won if he ran in 1968. (Humphrey only lost the popular vote by 0.7%) And people who talk about Johnson withdrawing or doing badly in New Hampshire are lying. Johnson never entered the 68 campaign so couldn't withdraw. He wasn't on the ballot in New Hampshire, never campaigned in New Hampshire and never asked anyone to campaign for him. And still won.
Yes he won New Hampshire as a write in but barely against a little-known U.S. Senator in a pro-war state if you take both McCarthy's vote in the Democratic primary and Republican write-in tallies. Plus, Johnson's campaign had demanded loyalty oaths from NH Dem voters in the form of purchased tickets which backfired greatly.
Johnson was on the ballot in Wisconsin and polling before the election indicated he was going to lose significantly. Could he have beaten Nixon? Of course, but being renominated was the problem and he simply had no stomach for a fight.
People in my family recognized cognitive decline in themselves from such things as losing the plot or forgetting a character in a book, reading much slower than previously, needing help with an addition etc. And then stopped driving, gave up positions of reponsibility, etc. I think Biden just has a lot of hubris. I also think the people who are now saying it's sudden are covering their asses. "How could I have known? It wasn't that way yesterday!" Yeah, sure. The people he listens to are his campaign staff. Who have a vested interest in the continuation of his campaign. In November they'll find some new excuse. I don't believe for a second that when he decided to run, nobody around him had worries he might not remain mentally fit for another five years. They just didn't tell him. And he didn't want to see it either.
I hope Biden uses the upcoming interview to withdraw. It seems like a good format to make that announcement.
I changed my mind. Biden should resign with a prepared speech, read off a teleprompter to do it in the best possible way. Maybe during the interview he can talk about his many accomplishments, because he had such a tremendously successful presidency.
reuters:
House Democrat Jim Clyburn - a kingmaker of sorts within the Democratic Party and who was instrumental in Biden's 2020 win - told CNN on Wednesday that the party should hold a "mini-primary" if Biden steps aside, the first senior party member to talk publicly about how, exactly, replacing Biden as a candidate would work.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-reassure-governors-democratic-kingmaker-floats-mini-primary-if-he-leaves-2024-07-03/
How bad will it be if trump wins? Even if he loses he’ll steal for sure this time. Is this right? Could be.
MAGA hates you. They really hate you.
In the wake of the Supreme Court making the president a de facto king, Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts just gave it one. Yes, the “radical left” is the enemy MAGA will defeat “in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.” And if we resist?
Resistance is futile.
https://digbysblog.net/2024/07/03/terminating-america-with-extreme-prejudice/
Your neighbors and your coworkers are the enemy. Get used to it.
Biden just said,
Now stop complaining and make it work.
The alternative is a criminal psychotic and an organization of criminal psychotics.
Trump Widens Lead After Biden’s Debate Debacle, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey. Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, an uptick since the debate.
from,
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/continuing-thoughts-on-the-turmoil
marshall also goes on to say:
"but that I am also waiting to see what new evidence comes in. The support of critical party stakeholders is evidence, a thing in itself."
josh wrote this before the nyt poll and clyburn's comments came out
before the nyt poll came out nate silver stated that biden had a 35% chance of winning
i can't imagine the new poll improved his odds
1. I am amazed how many experts we have in cognitive decline in this country. Seriously can we all stop diagnosing everybody?*
All we know for sure is this: Biden had a very bad debate.
2. I don't trust the NYT on this topic; they have been so invested in the idea of Biden decline that they can not allow themselves to admit they (at least) wildly exaggerated. They absolutely need something, anything negative on Biden because of their need to be "fair and balanced" which is far more important to them than being true. And luckily for them Biden is old.
* FWIW my own diagnosis is sleep deprivation: He did indeed doze off at least once, clearly visible to someone who has been sleep deprived himself at times.