25 thoughts on “Chart of the day: People fully vaxxed by state”
Thorwald
Just to note the obvious: Florida is the only state that went for Trump that's in the above-average group, and Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia, all of which went only narrowly for Biden, are the only non-Trump states in the below-average group. (This leaves aside the single electoral vote for Biden from Omaha, and the one for Trump from northern Maine, but I suspect you would find the vaccination rates in those districts line up in a predictable way.) I seem to sense a pattern . . . .
Kevin McAuliffe
My current home state - Nevada - is also in the below average category. But it's one of the weirdest states, so it's kind of always an outlier. The pattern still stands.
J. Frank Parnell
Seniors over 65 have the highest vaxination rate (close to 90%), which may explain Florida's reletively high rate of vaccination.
kahner
be interesting to see a scatterplot of vax rate vs median income by state.
kahner
to answer my own question, i plotted it and the results were exactly what you'd expect, with positive correlation coef = .636.
Displaced Canuck
62% fully vaccinated is very low compared to richer countries worldwide (e.g. EU is at 69.5% and Canada, Australia, New Zealand Japan, China and Singapore are all well over 75% fully vaccinated).
Jasper_in_Boston
Really? The USA is vaxxed at a lower rate than other high income countries??
I never would've guessed that.
KenSchulz
Five of the six New England states are 75% or better. Guess which of the six has the motto, “Live free or die”?
Alas, I no longer live in Connecticut.
Updated today as of noonish. 70% fully vaccinated which puts us just behind Maryland and ahead of Washington and well above the national average instead of below it
I wonder if CDC reports weekly figures with one week lagging?
I trust our state health dept numbers more so than CDCs for North Carolina totals
But be aware we are setting records for cases
We are setting records for hospitalizations
We are setting records for pediatric hospitalizations
Deaths are not rising as badly but that is not the point here
The virus is still SPREADING and mutating as it does
"It will be over by spring" Wrong Spades
"It will be over by summer" Wrong Spades
"Delta is the end" Wrong Spades
"It will be over by Thanksgiving" Wrong Spades
"Now It will be over in a couple of weeks" Wrong spades
You don't have a special forces background
You have a special farces back ground
Please try to leave Mom's basement will you?
On of the consistent problems we have with reporting on the pandemic is we have too many individual states reporting in different ways.
And we toss around ideas here and in other places without thinking about what we are actually seeing
Scientists are now coming around to the belief that a swift and mild case of Omicron after vaccination might not impute "super immunity" https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/01/do-post-vaccination-infections-improve-immunity/621172/
I also think that in some cases we may be OVER vaccinating. Israel comes to mind here. They are on round 4. How much stimulation can the bodies immune system take before it becomes OVER worked? And as the article in the Atlantic points out our vaccines are geared towards Wuhan and Alpha variants which were MUCH stronger than Omicron.
And the new variant in France has 45 mutations to it where as Omicron had 27(?).
So what we are doing is trying to hit a moving target - with ammunition that is declining in effectiveness over time using a gun that has limited use left in it.
Because we think in terms of the United States ONLY we are not winning the battle.
For a disease to become endemic means that we have slowed the spread down enough so that transmission is less frequent. This in turn, means new mutations are MORE SIMILAR to the last mutation of the pandemic
This is NOT what is happening - yet. Wuhan and Omicron look nothing alike - it has mutated THAT much. In times past this would not be a problem
Take the spanish flu. It killed more people in round 4 than it did in round 1. So you are in france and you get exposed. You pass it around until you get symptoms (5 to 6 days later). You then get on a boar for a 7 day cruise home.
By the time yo get home you are over the worst part of the disease and you are no longer shedding the virus. Your body is at that point HEALING from the virus.
In our recent story from Frances several people were in Cameroon and flew back WITH THE VIRUS in them only to test positive a day or two later WHILE they were still incubating it. This is why we are so different than in 1918. What took days is now taking hours. You could test negative in Cameroon at 8am local time and be positive at 8pm France time and already exposed hundreds of other people at the airport and at home.
Secondarily what else is different since 1918? Well we're 10 times more populated world wide AND due to bad diets and devil may care attitudes we are in much POORER health than we were in 1918
So anyone here trying to promote post infection immunity (PI Immunity) or trying to compare this to spanish flu needs to rethink what they are doing
As the IMMUNOLOGIST said in the Atlantic article
(And, to be clear, infections are still never something to be sought out.)
Say it again
(And, to be clear, infections are still never something to be sought out.)
We are not in 1918 anymore
The virus is mutating at an astonishing speed due to our continued lack of concern over it.
We EXPECT to do away with it by taking a pill, or a shot. While the rest of the world tosses Omicron about like a ping pong ball - within 4 hours flight time to the United States and less to Europe.
We need to vaccinate more people over seas as quickly as possible.
Otherwise in 3 months time we may be looking at something very different here.
I often hear my pears (older folks) saying the world is moving too fast.
It sure is
Jasper_in_Boston
I also think that in some cases we may be OVER vaccinating. Israel comes to mind here. They are on round 4. How much stimulation can the bodies immune system take before it becomes OVER worked?
You THINK we're over-vaxxing? (No doubt based on your extensive post-doc research stints at Berkeley and Johns Hopkins, right?)
And I THINK regular (maybe 2x a year) booster shots might well be in our future for the next few years, until this thing becomes a common cold.
Wuhan and Omicron look nothing alike - it has mutated THAT much
Uttery unscientific statement. In fact researchers are working on a single vaccine that would target a wide range of coronaviruses.
Vog46
Jasper-
Israel is on round 4 for their population
Yes I do think that the combination of two shots, a mild case of COVID and a booster could be over stimulation our immune system. the problem we have here in the US is that we don't know for sure who has had covid and who hasn't because we didn't test early.
Israel did, and they already know who had what vaccines and when because they have both a national HC system, and a population that for the MOST part is subjected to being mobilized for military service very quickly - which makes them already highly vaccinated.
And scientists at Ben Gurion University are now studying whether COVID attacks the immune system, and how.
Yes, researchers are working on a single vaccine to target a wide range of coronaviruses and I applaud that and hope they are successful. But it is still 1 to 2 years away.
Will we keep on recommending more shots in the meantime? Will the virus continue to mutate? Will Israel react by recommending over the nest year rounds 5 and 6?
OR
Would we be better off providing vaccines to those countries that haven't gotten vaccinated with rounds one or two? As WHO is recommending we do?
I am just a lay person trying to make sense of this who pandemic thing
Vog46
spell check or just bad spelling
peers although many of us are pear shaped
{snip}
Infection with the virus that causes COVID-19 can trigger an immune response that lasts well beyond the initial infection and recovery—even among people who had mild symptoms or no symptoms at all, according to Cedars-Sinai investigators. The findings are published in the Journal of Translational Medicine.
When people are infected with a virus or other pathogen, their bodies unleash proteins called antibodies that detect foreign substances and keep them from invading cells. In some cases, however, people produce autoantibodies that can attack the body’s own organs and tissues over time.
The Cedars-Sinai investigators found that people with prior infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have a wide variety of autoantibodies up to six months after they have fully recovered. Prior to this study, researchers knew that severe cases of COVID-19 can stress the immune system so much that autoantibodies are produced. This study is the first to report not only the presence of elevated autoantibodies after mild or asymptomatic infection, but their persistence over time.
“These findings help to explain what makes COVID-19 an especially unique disease,” said Justyna Fert-Bober, PhD, research scientist in the Department of Cardiology at the Smidt Heart Institute and co-senior author of the study. “These patterns of immune dysregulation could be underlying the different types of persistent symptoms we see in people who go on to develop the condition now referred to as long COVID-19.”
{snip}
This is Cedar Sinai
Not S Africa scientists
Here in NY, I think the lines of morgue reefer trailers and the mass pauper graves in NY got people's attention. Franklin: "Experience is a dear school, but fools will learn at no other."
dspcole
Lets hear it for Maine!!!
Spadesofgrey
Post HS is the key. Maine, Vermont and Rhode Island vs Wyoming, Idaho and Montana. Heck, the bump in post HS of Montana vs the other 2 are noticeable.
The first part of that article is for a study from here in LA county, which I remember when it came out.
It is somewhat misleading which seems to be the case re lot of cdc studies . The first problem is what la county kept doing and still sometimes does . Which is reporting the cumulative rates for infections, hospitalizations and deaths and then dividing by the number in each category at the END of the period . That is fundamentally dishonest for reasons anyone with any numeric knowledge can see, because people are being vaccinated during that period and plus the highest number of infections were in the earlier part in early 2021 when few were vaccinated ( note this is an old study and covers data well before omicron and before the bulk of the delta wave here. If the vaccine actually had zero affect, this type of " study" would show a huge advantage for vaccinated when none existed, simply by the way it is designed.
Sometimes, la county has shown the different rates for infections, etc. just in that week , not cumulative . Which makes the distortion minimal if the change in vaccination rate in just that week is small. And those honest numbers showed the vaccines working quite well. Not sure why they kept feeling compelled to make up flawed study methods trying to exaggerate the vaccine benefits when the truth was good enough.
Plus I would add that this type of comparison study is skewed in too ways , even when done honestly. First, in favor of the vaccine. Because those who are vaccinated also have been being far more cautious re exposure than unvaccinated re things like masking and social distancing. If those reduce infections and deaths by themselves, and are correlated with being vaccinated, then part or even all of the presumed vaccination benefit could be due to that and not the vaccine itself. Those who vaccinated would have less less covid even if the vaccine never was invented, because of who they are. And vaccinated tend to be healthier too than unvaccinated before vaccination. And I have yet to see one study that adjusts for comorbidity factors, which are higher in unvaccinated and thus the adjusted number would show a lower vaccine advantage. But they always adjust for age which increases the vaccine advantage.
Remember that study which kevin posted showing unbelievably lower mortality for vaccinated, even for things like accidents which could not be caused by the vaccine? The implication would be that much of the vaccine benefits such studies show is really just correlation and not the vaccine.
But the other skew going the other way is that many more of the unvaccinated vs vaccinated have natural immunity from prior infection. So when just comparing the two groups, much of the comparison is just natural vs vaccine immunity. if they are around the same effectiveness, that would incorrectly dilute the effectiveness of the vaccine.
Back in summer, I felt the two skews roughly offset . Now evidence indicates to me that , in summer, the first skew might be bigger and so net vaccine overrated a bit . By fall might have changed as delta wave so increased the number of unvaccinated who were infected and increased the 2nd skew.
To a great extent, the study you just posted was scientific crap.
rational thought
And second problem is it is so dated..giving evidence from largely the pre delta period and some of delta wave. What relevance does that have now with omicron which has a decent ability to evade both vaccibe immunity or natural immunity from prior variants , especially for infection and especially if such immunity is older ( 3 months seems to really deteriorate ) ?
Anyone counting on the vaccine, especially if not boosted within 3 months, to protect from getting infected and infecting someone who might be vulnerable, is foolish. It clearly is only marginally useful there. And do not count on a huge benefit for hospitalization and sickness either. Still helps a lot there, but not near as much as with delta. But, if omicron starts out as less virulent, then even a lesser vaccine or natural immunity benefit might leave you as well off as you were with delta or better.
But people should not get the wrong idea with omicron looking at this study, which measured vaccinated vs vaccinated for a period dealing with original and some of delta, and when vaccine immunity was for most more recent than today ..and plus the methodology inflated vaccine effectiveness in the most crudely incompetent way .
So don't go thinking you can start with lower virulence of omicron and then believe being vaccinated reduces your risk of hospitalization by 29 times from that lower omicron virulence. Nowhere close to that, especially of were vaccinated over 3 months ago ( but booster counts as revaccination) .
rational thought
I posted my tentative guess at when usa will peak in this wave a few weeks ago as jan 5 to jan 10 with jan 7 , tomorrow as beat guess. This is for reported cases not actual infections but my guess at peak of actual infections is actually about same as reported infections. Normally the reporting peak will be after actual peak but my estimate is that holiday delays pushed some of those infection reports to this week and so inflated reports this week so that syncs it up. And always bet on a Thursday or Friday for reporting peak. I think actual infection peak of a little less than a week after new years eve infections ( when they can infect others ) seems right. Without holidays, I think peak would be a week or two later .
So just sticking my neck out and , if cases go to 1.5 million a day next week , you can say I was wrong. Though I would not be surprised at all if peak report was next Thursday or Friday a little higher. Don't think it will be 1,000,000 a day like a thought earlier but that is due mostly to testing catching a low % age of actual infections..
But , unfortunately, also tend to think cases will not go down from peak as fast as I thought earlier. The way it appears immunity wears off so much after 3 months or so means continually lowered immunity ( as people hit that mark) requires more new infections to offset . Until we get to most having omicron recent infection, that will not change.
People like me , who got boosted in late October ( or those who got delta in October) will lengthen wave tail as our ability to be infected will be greatly increasing this month and next .
Just to note the obvious: Florida is the only state that went for Trump that's in the above-average group, and Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia, all of which went only narrowly for Biden, are the only non-Trump states in the below-average group. (This leaves aside the single electoral vote for Biden from Omaha, and the one for Trump from northern Maine, but I suspect you would find the vaccination rates in those districts line up in a predictable way.) I seem to sense a pattern . . . .
My current home state - Nevada - is also in the below average category. But it's one of the weirdest states, so it's kind of always an outlier. The pattern still stands.
Seniors over 65 have the highest vaxination rate (close to 90%), which may explain Florida's reletively high rate of vaccination.
be interesting to see a scatterplot of vax rate vs median income by state.
to answer my own question, i plotted it and the results were exactly what you'd expect, with positive correlation coef = .636.
62% fully vaccinated is very low compared to richer countries worldwide (e.g. EU is at 69.5% and Canada, Australia, New Zealand Japan, China and Singapore are all well over 75% fully vaccinated).
Really? The USA is vaxxed at a lower rate than other high income countries??
I never would've guessed that.
Five of the six New England states are 75% or better. Guess which of the six has the motto, “Live free or die”?
Alas, I no longer live in Connecticut.
Maybe it should be "Live free and die" now.
Kevin
When does the CDC updates it's figures?
Look at our state report
https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/
Updated today as of noonish. 70% fully vaccinated which puts us just behind Maryland and ahead of Washington and well above the national average instead of below it
I wonder if CDC reports weekly figures with one week lagging?
I trust our state health dept numbers more so than CDCs for North Carolina totals
But be aware we are setting records for cases
We are setting records for hospitalizations
We are setting records for pediatric hospitalizations
Deaths are not rising as badly but that is not the point here
The virus is still SPREADING and mutating as it does
"It will be over by spring" Wrong Spades
"It will be over by summer" Wrong Spades
"Delta is the end" Wrong Spades
"It will be over by Thanksgiving" Wrong Spades
"Now It will be over in a couple of weeks" Wrong spades
You don't have a special forces background
You have a special farces back ground
Please try to leave Mom's basement will you?
Hahahahahahahaha
Since I have a continuing interest in things happening in the District: https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2022/01/04/dc-hits-new-peak-for-covid-19-hospitalizations
Great work reminding him.
On of the consistent problems we have with reporting on the pandemic is we have too many individual states reporting in different ways.
And we toss around ideas here and in other places without thinking about what we are actually seeing
Scientists are now coming around to the belief that a swift and mild case of Omicron after vaccination might not impute "super immunity"
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/01/do-post-vaccination-infections-improve-immunity/621172/
I also think that in some cases we may be OVER vaccinating. Israel comes to mind here. They are on round 4. How much stimulation can the bodies immune system take before it becomes OVER worked? And as the article in the Atlantic points out our vaccines are geared towards Wuhan and Alpha variants which were MUCH stronger than Omicron.
And the new variant in France has 45 mutations to it where as Omicron had 27(?).
So what we are doing is trying to hit a moving target - with ammunition that is declining in effectiveness over time using a gun that has limited use left in it.
Because we think in terms of the United States ONLY we are not winning the battle.
For a disease to become endemic means that we have slowed the spread down enough so that transmission is less frequent. This in turn, means new mutations are MORE SIMILAR to the last mutation of the pandemic
This is NOT what is happening - yet. Wuhan and Omicron look nothing alike - it has mutated THAT much. In times past this would not be a problem
Take the spanish flu. It killed more people in round 4 than it did in round 1. So you are in france and you get exposed. You pass it around until you get symptoms (5 to 6 days later). You then get on a boar for a 7 day cruise home.
By the time yo get home you are over the worst part of the disease and you are no longer shedding the virus. Your body is at that point HEALING from the virus.
In our recent story from Frances several people were in Cameroon and flew back WITH THE VIRUS in them only to test positive a day or two later WHILE they were still incubating it. This is why we are so different than in 1918. What took days is now taking hours. You could test negative in Cameroon at 8am local time and be positive at 8pm France time and already exposed hundreds of other people at the airport and at home.
Secondarily what else is different since 1918? Well we're 10 times more populated world wide AND due to bad diets and devil may care attitudes we are in much POORER health than we were in 1918
So anyone here trying to promote post infection immunity (PI Immunity) or trying to compare this to spanish flu needs to rethink what they are doing
As the IMMUNOLOGIST said in the Atlantic article
(And, to be clear, infections are still never something to be sought out.)
Say it again
(And, to be clear, infections are still never something to be sought out.)
We are not in 1918 anymore
The virus is mutating at an astonishing speed due to our continued lack of concern over it.
We EXPECT to do away with it by taking a pill, or a shot. While the rest of the world tosses Omicron about like a ping pong ball - within 4 hours flight time to the United States and less to Europe.
We need to vaccinate more people over seas as quickly as possible.
Otherwise in 3 months time we may be looking at something very different here.
I often hear my pears (older folks) saying the world is moving too fast.
It sure is
I also think that in some cases we may be OVER vaccinating. Israel comes to mind here. They are on round 4. How much stimulation can the bodies immune system take before it becomes OVER worked?
You THINK we're over-vaxxing? (No doubt based on your extensive post-doc research stints at Berkeley and Johns Hopkins, right?)
And I THINK regular (maybe 2x a year) booster shots might well be in our future for the next few years, until this thing becomes a common cold.
Wuhan and Omicron look nothing alike - it has mutated THAT much
Uttery unscientific statement. In fact researchers are working on a single vaccine that would target a wide range of coronaviruses.
Jasper-
Israel is on round 4 for their population
Yes I do think that the combination of two shots, a mild case of COVID and a booster could be over stimulation our immune system. the problem we have here in the US is that we don't know for sure who has had covid and who hasn't because we didn't test early.
Israel did, and they already know who had what vaccines and when because they have both a national HC system, and a population that for the MOST part is subjected to being mobilized for military service very quickly - which makes them already highly vaccinated.
And scientists at Ben Gurion University are now studying whether COVID attacks the immune system, and how.
Yes, researchers are working on a single vaccine to target a wide range of coronaviruses and I applaud that and hope they are successful. But it is still 1 to 2 years away.
Will we keep on recommending more shots in the meantime? Will the virus continue to mutate? Will Israel react by recommending over the nest year rounds 5 and 6?
OR
Would we be better off providing vaccines to those countries that haven't gotten vaccinated with rounds one or two? As WHO is recommending we do?
I am just a lay person trying to make sense of this who pandemic thing
spell check or just bad spelling
peers although many of us are pear shaped
Even more news
Over stimulated antibodies
https://scitechdaily.com/covid-19-can-trigger-self-attacking-antibodies-even-in-people-that-had-no-symptoms-of-infection/
{snip}
Infection with the virus that causes COVID-19 can trigger an immune response that lasts well beyond the initial infection and recovery—even among people who had mild symptoms or no symptoms at all, according to Cedars-Sinai investigators. The findings are published in the Journal of Translational Medicine.
When people are infected with a virus or other pathogen, their bodies unleash proteins called antibodies that detect foreign substances and keep them from invading cells. In some cases, however, people produce autoantibodies that can attack the body’s own organs and tissues over time.
The Cedars-Sinai investigators found that people with prior infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have a wide variety of autoantibodies up to six months after they have fully recovered. Prior to this study, researchers knew that severe cases of COVID-19 can stress the immune system so much that autoantibodies are produced. This study is the first to report not only the presence of elevated autoantibodies after mild or asymptomatic infection, but their persistence over time.
“These findings help to explain what makes COVID-19 an especially unique disease,” said Justyna Fert-Bober, PhD, research scientist in the Department of Cardiology at the Smidt Heart Institute and co-senior author of the study. “These patterns of immune dysregulation could be underlying the different types of persistent symptoms we see in people who go on to develop the condition now referred to as long COVID-19.”
{snip}
This is Cedar Sinai
Not S Africa scientists
We are learning as we go
Here in NY, I think the lines of morgue reefer trailers and the mass pauper graves in NY got people's attention. Franklin: "Experience is a dear school, but fools will learn at no other."
Lets hear it for Maine!!!
Post HS is the key. Maine, Vermont and Rhode Island vs Wyoming, Idaho and Montana. Heck, the bump in post HS of Montana vs the other 2 are noticeable.
And the chart for hospitalizations, vax vs not (scroll down)
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/cdc-study-shows-unvaccinated-people-are-29-times-more-likely-to-be-hospitalized-with-covid.html
The first part of that article is for a study from here in LA county, which I remember when it came out.
It is somewhat misleading which seems to be the case re lot of cdc studies . The first problem is what la county kept doing and still sometimes does . Which is reporting the cumulative rates for infections, hospitalizations and deaths and then dividing by the number in each category at the END of the period . That is fundamentally dishonest for reasons anyone with any numeric knowledge can see, because people are being vaccinated during that period and plus the highest number of infections were in the earlier part in early 2021 when few were vaccinated ( note this is an old study and covers data well before omicron and before the bulk of the delta wave here. If the vaccine actually had zero affect, this type of " study" would show a huge advantage for vaccinated when none existed, simply by the way it is designed.
Sometimes, la county has shown the different rates for infections, etc. just in that week , not cumulative . Which makes the distortion minimal if the change in vaccination rate in just that week is small. And those honest numbers showed the vaccines working quite well. Not sure why they kept feeling compelled to make up flawed study methods trying to exaggerate the vaccine benefits when the truth was good enough.
Plus I would add that this type of comparison study is skewed in too ways , even when done honestly. First, in favor of the vaccine. Because those who are vaccinated also have been being far more cautious re exposure than unvaccinated re things like masking and social distancing. If those reduce infections and deaths by themselves, and are correlated with being vaccinated, then part or even all of the presumed vaccination benefit could be due to that and not the vaccine itself. Those who vaccinated would have less less covid even if the vaccine never was invented, because of who they are. And vaccinated tend to be healthier too than unvaccinated before vaccination. And I have yet to see one study that adjusts for comorbidity factors, which are higher in unvaccinated and thus the adjusted number would show a lower vaccine advantage. But they always adjust for age which increases the vaccine advantage.
Remember that study which kevin posted showing unbelievably lower mortality for vaccinated, even for things like accidents which could not be caused by the vaccine? The implication would be that much of the vaccine benefits such studies show is really just correlation and not the vaccine.
But the other skew going the other way is that many more of the unvaccinated vs vaccinated have natural immunity from prior infection. So when just comparing the two groups, much of the comparison is just natural vs vaccine immunity. if they are around the same effectiveness, that would incorrectly dilute the effectiveness of the vaccine.
Back in summer, I felt the two skews roughly offset . Now evidence indicates to me that , in summer, the first skew might be bigger and so net vaccine overrated a bit . By fall might have changed as delta wave so increased the number of unvaccinated who were infected and increased the 2nd skew.
To a great extent, the study you just posted was scientific crap.
And second problem is it is so dated..giving evidence from largely the pre delta period and some of delta wave. What relevance does that have now with omicron which has a decent ability to evade both vaccibe immunity or natural immunity from prior variants , especially for infection and especially if such immunity is older ( 3 months seems to really deteriorate ) ?
Anyone counting on the vaccine, especially if not boosted within 3 months, to protect from getting infected and infecting someone who might be vulnerable, is foolish. It clearly is only marginally useful there. And do not count on a huge benefit for hospitalization and sickness either. Still helps a lot there, but not near as much as with delta. But, if omicron starts out as less virulent, then even a lesser vaccine or natural immunity benefit might leave you as well off as you were with delta or better.
But people should not get the wrong idea with omicron looking at this study, which measured vaccinated vs vaccinated for a period dealing with original and some of delta, and when vaccine immunity was for most more recent than today ..and plus the methodology inflated vaccine effectiveness in the most crudely incompetent way .
So don't go thinking you can start with lower virulence of omicron and then believe being vaccinated reduces your risk of hospitalization by 29 times from that lower omicron virulence. Nowhere close to that, especially of were vaccinated over 3 months ago ( but booster counts as revaccination) .
I posted my tentative guess at when usa will peak in this wave a few weeks ago as jan 5 to jan 10 with jan 7 , tomorrow as beat guess. This is for reported cases not actual infections but my guess at peak of actual infections is actually about same as reported infections. Normally the reporting peak will be after actual peak but my estimate is that holiday delays pushed some of those infection reports to this week and so inflated reports this week so that syncs it up. And always bet on a Thursday or Friday for reporting peak. I think actual infection peak of a little less than a week after new years eve infections ( when they can infect others ) seems right. Without holidays, I think peak would be a week or two later .
So just sticking my neck out and , if cases go to 1.5 million a day next week , you can say I was wrong. Though I would not be surprised at all if peak report was next Thursday or Friday a little higher. Don't think it will be 1,000,000 a day like a thought earlier but that is due mostly to testing catching a low % age of actual infections..
But , unfortunately, also tend to think cases will not go down from peak as fast as I thought earlier. The way it appears immunity wears off so much after 3 months or so means continually lowered immunity ( as people hit that mark) requires more new infections to offset . Until we get to most having omicron recent infection, that will not change.
People like me , who got boosted in late October ( or those who got delta in October) will lengthen wave tail as our ability to be infected will be greatly increasing this month and next .