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Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: July 20 Update

Published on 6 Comments on Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: July 20 Update

Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through July 20. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

6 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: July 20 Update”

  1. golack

    The CDC update their numbers yesterday to fix issues they had. In the morning, trends were pointing down--in the afternoon pointing up. Their values are now consistent with other organizations' numbers.

    Caseloads still trending up. Some of the rates of increase may be dropping, though that might just be reporting artifacts in places. No reports on fixed days flatten the results over those days. Change in reporting frequency adds noise to the data. I hope the rate increase is dropping for real, but numbers still going up.

    CovidActNow still working on their data for today's post, so yesterday's results: CA and TX rates of increase dropped to 1.4 or below over the past day or three, so they're no longer in the red zone. FL, however, has a high number of cases, 30.2 >25 cutoff, and high rate of increase, 1.49 > 1.4 cutoff, so it's bad there and getting worse.

    Fear the Deer.

  2. Special Newb

    Slowly inching toward 300 cases a day in MN. Still under 2% positivity rate though since we have a highly vaccinated population a lot of folks probably just feel like they are catching a cold and not getting tested.

  3. rational thought

    Covidactnow updated.

    I think it does look like the R is coming down most places. Texas below 1.3. Only two states and P.R. above 1.4 and just barely.

    Note this does not mean cases going down or that the arithmetic rate of increase is going down. Still exponential increase. But the rate of change of the rate of increase seems now negative. Gotta start there.

    Consistent to me with delta being done most places taking over so now have seen the real delta only R and that should be declining in future as immunity slowly increases through vaccinations and people getting covid.

    But bad news to me is that I do not see vaccinations picking up as much as I hoped they would. Still looks like well below .1% per day. At this rate, we probably will need three months to get an extra 6% or so. And cases still are not really all that high yet, although going up. So probable contribution of addtl natural immunity is still likely less than vaccinations per day.

    I think that many average people are not obsessing over the data like many of us are ( honestly not that mentally healthy), and the impact of delta has just not sunk in yet. A very large R means nothing to most until you see a huge case increase or, even more , a sizable increase in deaths.

    So I still think that many might be persuadable re vaccination due to delta but not until things get actually somewhat worse.

    And maybe the focus of vaccination should shift more to getting those who only got one shot to get the 2nd. As compared to alpha, seems % of total vaccinated is more important than single dose now. I an guessing convincing someone to get a 2nd dose helps more than someone getting 1st. And, as they already got one, seems they should be persuadable.

    The gap between 1st dose and fully does not seem to be closing much anymore. Seems to be a decent number just sticking with one dose.

    Other things I think I see just eyeballing.

    A) still seems to me that data looks like natural immunity just as good or a bit better than full vaccine.

    B) single dose vaccinated does seem to be much less effective. I think covidactnow should emphasize the full vaccinated member, not 1st dose.
    That focus seemed to start with Biden stating the july 4th goal/prediction of 70% that way but that is now old news. And I think it now gives some an implicit impression that one dose is good enough.

    C) the further north you are , the better it seems you do compared to what it " should be " based on immunity.
    Whether a factor. Being warm enough to be outside in summer is good, but too hot so go inside in air conditioning is bad.
    I wonder. Has seemed to some extent that undeveloped nations have been hit but not as bad as expected given little vaccinations bad health care, etc..maybe where too poor to afford air conditioning is good thing for covid.

      1. cld

        Does that work the other way around as well, if I had the Pfizer vaccine should I get the J&J or AstraZeneca booster?

        1. rational thought

          I am also interested in how valuable it might be for someone who has natural immunity from getting covid to get vaccinated. How much will it boost their immunity?

          I have heard some say that will get you to be super immune but have yet to see any real evidence of it. Has it think it boosts immunity some but how much?

          And same question for getting covid after vaccination ( although that would not be something deliberate) . How much does that boost immunity from vaccination only?

          When we were thinking that vaccine and natural immunity might be 90% effective in stopping infection, that was a less important issue. But if vaccine or natural immunity is only 60 or 70% effective and you can get up to 90%, that is big.

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