I won't pretend to be a huge fan of James Carville, but he happens to have said something that's been on my mind ever since Donald Trump won the election:
Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville told Mediaite’s Dan Abrams that the Trump administration would “collapse” within 30 days and advised Democrats to sit back and let it happen.
...."What I have said very publicly is that Democrats need to play possum. This whole thing is collapsing. It doesn’t need Elizabeth Warren and somebody screaming to pacify some progressive advocacy groups in Washington".... “It’s going to be easy pickings here in six weeks,” he said of opportunities for Democrats. “Just lay back.”
I'm not sure Trump is near collapse, but he might be. His net job approval numbers are certainly crashing fast:
But Trump aside, I agree that Democrats should play possum. They have loads of time before the midterm elections, and in the meantime it's impossible to figure out what their best strategy ought to be. Trump and congressional Republicans control everything anyway, so just let them. They'll eventually need to make a deal over the budget, and that's plenty soon enough to start up a bit of bargaining.
Then sit and wait to see how things shake out. Allow Republicans to create their own problems and then attack. By then Dems will know what to do and can energetically go out and do it.
No, I don't think so. I think Carville was very correct when he clearly saw for a long time before the election that Biden couldn't win. And that a Democratic candidate could have won if Biden withdrew sooner.
But on the issue of doing something or doing nothing., the Parties are stunningly different. If Harris had won, the R's would be attacking non-stop, and the airwaves would be filled with Republican lies.
The Democrats on the other hand have plenty of legitimate targets. If I were a Democratic politician who wanted to win, I would be attacking Trump as a Putin stooge who is following Putin's wishes to destroy America. Sure, there is no hard proof of that, but based on Trump's behavior, it is quite believable (and I believe it).
I just don't see how letting Trump have the bully pulpit without any pushback is a winning strategy. Words matter, and unanswered words risks having the R views take root among the populace. Maybe I'm wrong, but give me an example where waiting to fight back paid dividends.
You don't really have to prove Trump's a Putin stooge, you can just ask the question: Name one thing Trump has done that a Russian stooge wouldn't do.
You absolutely do have to prove it - this is the consistent Lefty error - assuming because you lot are sold on the idea that the idea sells itself.
It does not - one has to sell the idea, and sell it in terms that convince people who are not pre-sold.
The enormous error of the Democrats since you became the party of the Bourgeousie, the educated classes, is to speak heavily in the language and to assume only you are the market (while in ironic snobbery sneering at MAGA [yes they may well deserve it, I have zero MAGA sympathy but it is not an electoral winner])
Selling Putin Stooge, Selling Weak Before Russia, selling National Security and US not being Pushover... these things need to be sold in working class terms, not taken as revealed truths self-evident (to avoid any doubt yes he is a Putin sympathesier)
Also, the parties are bound by history and path dependence. The DNC can't simply adopt whatever position is momentarily convenient.
The Democrats have historically been opposed to the American Imperial Project and its NatSec enablers. In the last 10 years, the Democratic party elite welcomed in the Neocons and the 3-letter-agency ghouls. But the Democratic party base isn't there yet. When some Atlantic Council freakshow starts slavering about fellow travelers, many Democrats get uncomfortable.
"Selling the idea" and "proving the idea" are not synonymous, or even close.
This. Fox News has been selling ideas for years. They have yet to prove one.
If Harris had won, the R's would be attacking non-stop, and the airwaves would be filled with Republican lies.
This. We know it's hard to get the mainstream press to report on the Democrats fairly, but the more you say it the more it gets out. Bernie is out there doing rallies right now to do this; I'm not some Bernie bro, but it's not a bad start. Keep calling out every bad thing, every negative stat (how many jobs have been lost now?), you name it. Pete Buttigieg was good at schooling Fox hosts when given a chance, everyone should be working like that. Do pressers, speak at grocery store openings, any chance to get out the message because the press isn't even covering the bad all that well either.
In the same light, Sen. Jack Reed is fighting back. As reported on ABC news, here is what he said:
"In an interview Sunday on ABC News' "This Week," Democratic Sen. Jack Reed decried President Donald Trump's recent verbal attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and increased alignment with Russia.
"Essentially, this is President Trump surrendering to the Russians," Reed told co-anchor Martha Raddatz.
"This is not a statesman or a diplomat," Reed added. "This is just someone who admires Putin, does not believe in the struggle of the Ukrainians and is committed to cozying up to an autocrat."
Reed said statements Trump made recently about Ukraine were "generally misleading or completely false," and suggest he has "no real intention to engage the Ukrainian government to find out what they need" in negotiations with Russia.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-surrendering-russians-democratic-sen-jack-reed/story?id=119084470
Forbes posted a 35 minute video of Bernie speaking in Iowa City explaining how the mega-rich are screwing average Americans. He urged locals to work to defeat their Republican Congresswoman. Seems like Dems could do this also. Being quiet as mice (like my two Senators in WA) seems awfully convenient advice for pols who do that anyway — unless, that is, they’re working to defenestrate Al Franken from the Senate.
Yeah, and nobody should be listening to James fucking Carville right now.
He's basically saying "the world's on fire but don't worry, it'll burn itself out when it runs out of fuel, just don't try to stop it from burning everything it can burn first."
Fuck that, James.
Hakeem Jeffries saying "we're not going to swing at every pitch, we're going to wait for the right one" is just as fucking stupid.
There are plenty of good pitches right now, Hakeem, and you're getting rung up for strike 3 while Schumer is picking his nose in the dugout.
Agree. Worse than even the election result, the Democrats continually get their asses kicked in the information war. To play possum now would be gross malpractice. Democrats have never had such a compelling case to make against Trump and the GOP. Voters of all stripes are terrified and pissed. Show the people who's fighting for them and for the American way.
I agree. I saw this convo with Carville, but he's a creature of the political=industrial complex. Like other PR consultants, he thinks of everything in terms of campaign messaging and "branding."
I would point out that in mid-2024 he was predicting a landslide win for Kalama Harris.
I hardly ever disagree with Kevin, but I think he's wrong about this. See this Bulwark post from Jill Lawrence: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/start-the-2026-campaigns-right-now.
Waiting for the 2026 campaign season is thinking as if it's normal times. But this is Dystopia. Trump has assembled a determined army of extremists who truly want to destroy the post-New Deal world. There is no time to waste.
There is definitely evidence of Trump being a Putin stooge. I think the civil standard of proof applies here, and I'm satisfied on the balance of probabilities that Trump is a Putin stooge. I'm satisfied beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump is either a Putin stooge or a useful idiot for Putin.
I think the best argument to make is the useful idiot one. And hardly anybody is making it.
It sure seems like it would work. Why has nobody tried?
I sort of agree but there are so many Democrats that are totally freaking out. And for good reason! This presidency is so bad!
I don't know anyone who is NOT freaking out right now. If you aren't, you're not paying attention.
Also, BE WELL! Get better dude!
Nope. The longer MAGA has a monopoly on media coverage, the more its programs will be normalised in Americans' minds. Tina Smith's "This is the ultimate dick boss move from Musk - except he isn't even the boss, he's just a dick" was not only brilliant, but the snarling MAGA response suggested it hit home. If nothing else, a demoralised Democratic base deserves to see that its leaders are out there throwing punches.
Plus I've no idea what "This whole thing is collapsing" is supposed to mean. Carville has been wrong about practically everything this century. I wish he'd just go away, taking Gingrich and Epstein and Penn and all the other relics of a past era with him.
BTW Dan Bongino was just appointed as Patel's deputy. Dan fucking Bongino! Democrats can't mutter "no comment" sheepishly in the face of the ongoing merger of the US government with the massive MAGA propaganda machine.
There needs to be ads running with video of Bongino saying really stupid things. I'm sure there are ample clips to choose from. This is such a horrible choice. At least when asked about this any Democrat should stop, laugh first then rip into just how bad this choice is.
"Dan fucking Bongino! "
This is at a visible level, so tthey are a little restraint. There will be much worse people at lower levels.
"... massive MAGA propaganda machine."
The FBI isn't going to do propaganda. It will be political opponents harassment or worse.
Sit back and wait for the fight between Musk and Putin for control of the Presidency?
Or Musk and any of the other factions jockeying for Trumps favor and attention. The backstabbing will be epic.
It's my opinion that Dems can use this time to claim some ideological turf. Trump's disruptiveness and general awfulness have lured Dems into being constantly reactive, to rise against the flood of terrible stuff he says and does.
That's left something of a void in the public's perceptions about what the Dems are actually for.
It shouldn't be a long list. Hakeem Jeffries "ABCs" includes a value for each letter of the alphabet. That's too many. Dems have been scattershot in their public stands and lacking in an articulated unifying principle.
I haven't given any thought to what I would recommend as a simple message. But the values that America aspires to offer a ready menu of choices: Fair play, opportunity, individual freedom, creating a promising future, justice for all. Take your pick.
A couple of overarching principles can serve as a way to frame many disparate battles. Dems correctly fight for the rights of marginalized groups, But without a larger frame for those fights, folks who aren't members of those groups may feel excluded. It's time to call 'em in.
Agree completely. R's have always been good at messaging. Somehow or other, someone on the D side has to figure it out. That's one thing Carville was good at. You can't just be against Trump. You have to be for something. They need a list of things they want to do to differentiate them from Trump. Biden was one of the most consequential Presidents in recent times...and almost nobody knew about it. That's political malpractice.
I agree the current administration is going to collapse. I just don't think it's going to happen in 30 days. Maybe six months. Maybe longer. Watch the stock market. When that goes south, the people writing the checks are going to notice and you can't bullshit them. They know when they're losing money and they won't be happy.
Most people don’t have enough squirreled away to pay their mortgage or rent for more than a month or two without paychecks regularly coming in.
The economic collapse is gonna happen sooner than 6 months, when suddenly hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of fired federal workers and disappeared undocumented people stop paying their mortgages or leases, and banks and landlords in turn fail to pay the people they owe money to.
I don't know if it will be sooner than 6 months, but I agree - I couldn't think of a more sure way of manufacturing a depression than just turning off the federal spigot. Here in the DC area, things are feeling pretty grim. It goes way beyond direct federal employees. It's all tied together. So much of the regional economy depends on indirect federal dollars (apparently about 40% of the economy), and it'll cascade through as homeowners stop paying for as many renovations and other home goods, landscaping and construction firms start laying off workers (if they haven't already gone into hiding to escape ICE), small businesses start to close, landlords start to go belly up, and so on.
The economic collapse is gonna happen sooner than 6 months...
Happily or sadly, we're not going to have an economic "collapse" as such. The numbers of federal workers Musk is likely to be able to get rid of (a couple hundred thousand? one or two milion if contractors, military and USPS are factored in?) aren't enough to trigger a "collapse" even if most of them remain unemployed indefinitely (which almost certainly won't be the case). Same things for undocumentd immigrants. The regime's deportation numbers in the early going appear to be smaller than Biden's.
The biggest macro-economic threat the regime's policies pose in the short/medium term is inflation. Voters hate rising prices (as we saw recently), and so such a situation will reverberate to the benefit of Democrats. And, yes, I do think it's extremely likely the economy does eventually slip into recession, sure. Maybe even a relatively bad one.
Trump's numbers are fairly likely to get quite a bit worse in the fullness of time. Democrats will have lots of opportunities. The midterms are a long ways away but the (very) early signs point to the opposition party doing well. I'd be moderately shocked if Democrats don't take back the House.
Thankfully, none of this requires a "collapse," though.
It's going to be inflation and recession. Stagflation, just like in the late 1970s. Maybe not great recession levels of unemployment, but the "misery index" is going to be high enough for Democrats to retake the House of Representatives in 2026, if not sooner. Two or three retirements and special election losses and Johnson is no longer Speaker.
I mean, if they proceed with impounding even just 1/3 of the federal contracting budget (about 2.7% of GDP at 770B), that would be equivalent to an immediate -1% to GDP. Then there are the knock-on effects from all of the spending those contractors do on subrecipients/vendors, consumables, housing, etc. - and the spending THOSE people do on the things they need, and so on. And if they illegally fire tens of thousands of people, that's another few billion and all of the spending that their income supports. Even if the multiplier is only like 1.5x the actual outlay, you're pretty quickly at something like a 1.5% hit to GDP.
Then there are secondary effects like foreclosures, hits to rental markets reducing the amount of GDP generated by landlords, etc.
Then there are unrelated things like bird flu/probable egg producer price gouging (source: https://farmaction.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Final_FarmAction_FTC_DOJ_EggPricesLetter.pdf, same sales volume but 6x profits on average over 2 years but greedflation isn't a thing, right guys?).
GDP growth in 2024 was 2.8% and 2.9% in 2023. I'm not going to pretend to have hard numbers or even that anybody can crunch these numbers, but it's not hard to see a world in which shrinking federal spending by 1% of GDP, along with the increased economic uncertainty (which is already showing up in data and other indicators, going back to November), lands us in a recession.
Arithmetic says the disappeared undocumented people are not going to be much of a short term issue. Estimates of the number of undocumented people in the US start at 12 million and go up. Trump has been shifting immigration officials around punitively because they haven't achieved his target of deporting 1,500 people a day. That sounds like a lot of people, but at 1,500 people a day it would take 22 years to deport 12 million people. In the next six months, not more than 2 or 3 percent of the undocumented people in the US will be deported, which is not enough to have any noticeable effect.
BTW, in addition to recession Trump's tariffs can be expected to cause a lot of inflation.
"I haven't given any thought to what I would recommend as a simple message."
"You can't just be against Trump."
As a basic message, Quaker, how about "these people only care about ruining everybody's lives"? And pointing out what's bad, and what it's doing to people, that it shows they don't give a damn about anybody but themselves?
As far as FrankM's point about needing more than just being against trump, I'm with David Frum on this one-- at this early stage, the job of an opposition party is to cover the governing party with mud. The more directly American poli-sci-speak for this is that you want to drive their negatives up and their positives down. That means a wide spray pattern because you never know what specific thing is going to resonate. And here, the job gets a running start with an in-party that's so completely determined to prove that it's a passel of evil fuck-ups.
But I don't think Dems can be silent now-- they have to let people know they're there and watching and recognizing the evils and harms for what they are. They have to compete for attention. To that extent, Carville's point of view is outdated, rooted in a time when media automatically asked for a D perspective and sects competed against each other to grab camera time. It doesn't work like that now.
There will be a time for Ds to lay out what they want to do, when elections are much closer, and that's the part of Carville's point I agree with. And in my view they'd be smart not to focus on details but to keep to general aims that most people agree with. Nobody doubts that Ds are able to talk about details when they need to (300-page white papers and all), but people need to know what those details are in service of, and talking about those broader purposes is where Ds have fallen short.
Dems have relied far too much on the idea that people will automatically come up with 4 if you just give them 2 and another 2 and leave it at that. No idea explains itself, no dots connect themselves. I think this is a big reason why R comms have just beaten them silly over so much of my lifetime.
I tend to agree, mostly. Waging an information war would be the right call, since the only other tool at the Ds disposal is to not help them run the country off the road. Of the former, the single best thing the Ds could do is fire every single overpaid consultant and marketing firm in their employ and hire a bunch of young influencers who understand how the game is played today.
We haven't had a strong win since Obama and we can't go on with just barely eking out wins that don't get us the full power that the Rs have right now. We have to do something about the fact that a couple hundred thousand voters in just a handful of states tip the scales one way or the other. That's too much power for such a small number of people to have. The Ds have to stop relying on marketing to people already on the bus and start selling the economic policy to skeptics in the middle and young people.
I do agree with Carville that Trump is his own worst enemy and you never interrupt your opponent when they're making a catastrophic mistake. Trump has made a catastrophic mistake in handing off the gutting of government and making Musk the Master of Coin. Nobody voted for Elon Musk and it's not going over well back at the ranch. Trump looks weak and like he's ceded all budget power, which he has. He can't keep his team on message, Vance is making up policy on his own. Hegseth is off the reservation. All the media can talk about is Musk. Musk has a taste for power now, greater than anything he's ever known and he's not giving it up. That is Trump's Achilles heel, he can't get rid of Musk and Musk is going to wreck all those carefully laid plans by running his own show.
But back at home, Aunt Susan just lost her job at the University due to cuts. Cousin Eddie is going to lose his Medicaid and there's talk about the Post Office and Social Security. This stuff is not going over well. The voters wanted deportations and lower prices, yet prices are going up. They wanted the waste, fraud and abuse cut - not the stuff they rely on in their daily lives. They didn't vote for some techno libertarian autarky that requires a painful transition.
And they sure didn't vote for people tinkering around with birth control, so when that rolls out via EO all hell will break loose. Eventually, the Ds are going to have to roll in and get the country back on the road again and they need to make sure they have enough of a majority to fix all the loopholes we now are so acutely aware of.
"I do agree with Carville that Trump is his own worst enemy and you never interrupt your opponent when they're making a catastrophic mistake"
Of course you don't dream of trying to *stop* him when he's stepping on rakes all day. But what about standing to one side and pointing and jeering about all the rakes he's stepping on?
As we know, most of the voting public isn't paying much attention to politics most of the time. And all the time they're deluged, like we all are, by devices and media that bend heaven and earth to grab their attention, practically leap out of their screens at them. Ds can't sit in a corner and expect this kind of person to quietly mull things over at election time, slap a knee, and say "you know what? These guys are irrational, I see the light, the Dems are right."
People like that need to have the language and point of view articulated for them, and well ahead of time so that what they conclude is something they're already familiar with. This is kind of a stretch, but I don't think most people really enjoy those aha moments of insight and clarity that so many of us here live for. They're more comfortable lining up with things they've already internalized. And Dems need to help them internalize truths about these guys who step on rakes all day, and make all the rest of us step on their rakes. Sort of like moving the Overton window-- things you don't talk about don't affect it, things you *do* talk about can move it. And this isn't so different, I don't think.
Also, one of the ways you tell people what you're in favor of is by telling them what you're opposed to. Even if all you do is stand to one side and jeer at rake-steppers, you're telling people that rakes are dangerous, and you're also lining yourself up alongside onlookers and against the rake-steppers. Leaving people adrift in this competitive attention economy doesn't strike me as a winning approach.
"But what about standing to one side and pointing and jeering about all the rakes he's stepping on?"
Honestly, the best people for that are the comedians, late-night show hosts, etc. That is what they do for a living. They are good at it.
And the more non-partisan the better. The last thing we need is Charles Schumer pretending to be a millennial insult comic.
Heather Cox Richardson had a great Substack post highlighting statements by Governors Pritzker & Mills: https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/february-21-2025?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=apj91.
Gov. Mills, by standing up to Trump in person and thru a later statement provides a model: "No President…can withhold Federal funding authorized and appropriated by Congress and paid for by Maine taxpayers in an attempt to coerce someone into compliance with his will. It is a violation of our Constitution and of our laws.”
Interesting but fanciful idea there. One of Trump's talents is saying and doing things that drive a lot of Dems utterly bat-sh*t crazy. Staying quiet/expressing outrage is nearly impossible for them.
Where is that trend line when we really need it?
“We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert it.” — Abraham Lincoln
Doing nothing, waiting for people to see the truth about Trump and Republicans, and waiting for demographics to shift their way, is what Dems have been doing for years. The results are before us.
yes
Oh! I know!! Dems have to shift more to the right. That will work, fer sher.
I agree that things are going to get a lot worse before they can get better. No reason not to take advantage of the target rich environment in the mean while.
But Trump aside, I agree that Democrats should play possum. They have loads of time before the midterm elections...
I mostly agree. The impatience! to! do! something! anything! (for the sake of doing something) is understandable—the regime is terrifying and destructive. But most of the heavy lifting on pushback against Trump—at least until Dems take the House back—is going to be undertaken by courts, foreign governments, financial markets and (yes) Republicans in Congress (not saying the latter will do anything, mind you, but they at least do have some actual power).
I do think, though, state governments run by Democrats are an option.
Mainly, it's still early yet: we'll surely have a better idea of what kinds of resistance activities make sense six months from now.
You figure out what works by doing things to see what is working. Often, doing a thing creates the opportunity you are sitting around waiting to drop in your lap.
We won't have absolute certainty or any better clarity in X months. It doesn't work that way, it never does. Assuming that clariry can only be divined right around the time we start handing out big contracts for the upcoming elections seems obviously misaligned.
This is a time for boring but decisive lawsuits, not exciting but counterproductive protests and paper-mache puppets.
This is a time for boring but decisive lawsuits AND exciting protests and papier-mache puppets. Yes, the omission of "but counterproductive" was deliberate. The correct answer is "all of the above".
Except that I have never in my life seen protests be productive at the national level. Instead, protests just give Fox News a gallery of freaks to hawk to the base as being representative of the Democratic party.
Martin Luther King disagrees. Also, the war in Vietnam ended.
If the Dems do nothing but sit on their hands, will that lead to a situation where Fox avoids hawking something to the base?
Obviously not.
Instead we are left with a situation where Fox is hawking something to the country while Dems sit back and lose touch. There is no reality where this works out well.
You can do an action that hurts in the long run, that is possible. But waiting and doing nothing is a guaranteed way to ensure you will lose.
+1
The Democrats need to be out making sure everyone knows this is on them.
Inflation--that's the Republicans fault.
Defunding cops--that's on them.
Bird flu--the Republicans are not really trying to stop it.
We're on the verge of eliminating polio from the face of the Earth--Trump's stunts has set that back, potentially undoing years of work in a few weeks.
Disaster funding--well that's a disaster now.
Losing your healthcare---that's on Trump and the Republicans.
Farmer's losing out--Trump is just building on the damage he did the last time in office, and their Senators and Representatives are responsible too.
Trump cutting the people in government who weed out waste, fraud and abuse....yeah, that's not going to end well...
Agree. Who the hell decreed that finger-pointing is bad politics for Dems?
The fact that Rs lie about virtually everything when they point fingers doesn't mean Dems shouldn't point their own fingers at Rs. In fact it means Ds should do it more because truth works for them.
Old "give 'em hell" Harry Truman said it-- "I don't give them Hell. I just tell the truth about them, and they think it's Hell." You know you've hit a nerve when they howl like stuck pigs. The public needs to hear more of that sound.
+1
Welcome back, Kevin, Sending you my wishes for better health ahead.
But no, no one should play possum at this time. The country is under the greatest threat in our lifetime. What is happening is unprecedented. To fail to speak up and rally the public to the cause of saving this nation's heritage would be a disgrace.
Carville is an election guy. This is not an election campaign, where letting the other side shoot itself in the foot is something you don't interrupt. This is a house on fire with a mad scramble to fight the blaze, even though the hydrant is dry and the guys on that red truck are the ones holding the flamethrowers. It's a desperate situation demanding a response.
Trump's approvals are sinking. That's good. It will help to have the public united in opposition to what Maga and Doge are doing.
But I'm skeptical. "Trump is sinking in public opinion" has the whiff of "Trump's legal problems are mounting," which buoyed lib hopes in past years that we might soon be done with him. Or in this case, rein him in. Or help Dems win the midterms to check his power. Or win the White House in '28 to send him packing.
None of those scenarios are realistic. Trump will never go peacefully, and he has the apparatus of the state at his disposal. The usual rules for how to get rid of a bad leader don't apply this time. I don't think that idea has gotten through yet.
+6 (one for each paragraph).
Waiting for the midterms is utter insanity. Trump and Musk have already set gov't back years if not decades on the principle that it is quick and easy to destroy things, slow and hard to rebuild them. On top of that it is just more of playing by the rules that have already been shattered.
I would also like to ask what exactly does "collapse" look like? In 30 days, Republicans will see the error of their ways and reverse course everywhere? Does collapse mean economic depression and anarchy? What is being proposed here? (Sincere question).
As the resident opossum gravatar, I feel impelled to weigh in, and I strongly disagree. I think Democrats need to oppose, loudly, at every opportunity. We need to make sure that everybody knows which side we're on.
Not just oppose, but blame. Tie bad things that are happening to Republican policy changes. Bird flu increasing? Point to Republicans having all the power and laying off CDC staff. No FEMA money for hurricane victims? Point to Republicans having all the power and gutting FEMA. Crime rising? Point to Republicans having all the power and replacing top management at the FBI. Deficit? Point to Republicans having all the power and cutting IRS enforcement staff. Your neighbor got cancer? Point to Republicans and the cuts in researching cancer cures. Heat waves? Floods? You can see the pattern. Everything bad that happens is because Republicans have all the power, and what they've chosen to do with it.
+1. This is the blueprint
In the primaries, things get weird, and more extreme. Then as the actual election comes, campaigns trend more to the center, to pick up the more moderate and independent voters. The winner usually maintains an outward appearance of being center while behind the scenes pushing out but never to the extreme.
Now, we have a situation we've not seen, a winner who is hiring cabinet members he wouldn't have touted even in the primary process, and openly embracing a hard right wing appearance. For some, this is very troubling and even intimidating, for others an opportunity, and a signal that none of this is going to work, and in 2 years and then 2 years more, the tide reversed, if the opposition stays calm and reasonable (and probably if they mostly don't).
The best thing to do now is point out the extremism, the dishonesty, the exaggerations, the conspiracies (and conspiratorialists), the rudeness, thoughtlessness, recklessness, lawlessness, as if people's jobs don't matter, their lives don't matter, rules and laws don't matter, unless on the Trump MAGA cult of personality train.
That Musk is epically failing and screwing everything up is just an added and unexpected bonus, not only the reality but culture of incompetence is fully on display, and the infighting has barely even started yet, as everyone knows Trump is done in 4 years, and wants to be next.
Ultimately this big mess is mostly about how big money has infected our politics again, so campaign finance reform has to be a main item. Corruption is also a big problem, so every inspector general Trump fired should be paraded before the people, so it's not forgotten, transparency championed, and accountability expected. No more striking it rich getting elected! The rule of law must be respected!!
Aside from that, stay focused on the actual people living their lives, not trying to pay bills but to get ahead, so if bills are a problem than we have huge problems. Economic and leadership competency is essential to the middle class, and to those aspiring to be in the middle class, and those are the voters who need to be won, not the fat cats.
Last, focus on science, and technology, we have a competition to win against authoritarian states diametrically opposed to our way of life, of liberty, of justice, and if they get the edge, and focus on actual reality, evidence and learning better than we do, then we may not like the coercive world we end up with - militarily, legally, economically, ecologically, culturally or morally - it's critically important as we move into the age of quantum computing and AI that no small cabal wins this competition, whether that's some private plutocrats or the Chinese politburo.
+ 1. Don't forget, after pointing out the extremism, the dishonesty, the exaggerations, the conspiracies (and conspiratorialists), the rudeness, thoughtlessness, recklessness, lawlessness, as if people's jobs don't matter, their lives don't matter, rules and laws don't matter, to tie those choices to problems that the public is facing. Make the Republicans own all of the problems, by tying them to their choices.
salud
It's a good rule to never get in the way of your enemy when he's in the process of destroying himself, but if he's attempting to destroy all brakes on his power, you had better be damned sure he really is going to fail.
+1
This is literally the worst approach.
First, this is bad governance.
Second, if like Carville youre only interested in elections, this is a bad way to win future elections.
The strategy seems counterintuitive and obviously stupid until you realize that Carville represents the election strategist industry and mindset. His interest isn't governing a country, or the people of the country, it's not even winning future elections. His interest is promoting the role of campaign strategists who get paid lots of money to run short term advisory and messaging campaigns that churn through a lot of cash.
This 'do nothing, cede space to the GOP for 12-18 months, wait for election season to launch a targeted messaging campaign' has been the default Democrat approach the last few decades. Doesn't appear to have worked in the past, no reason to think it will work in the future.
But the strategists will get paid. A lot.
But by the same token, you can’t govern if you can’t win. On that, I agree.
I 100% agree with Carville. See, this is how it's going so far.
Something outrageous happens. People demand Democrats do something. Democrats do something (go on TV to talk about something outrageous the convicted felon's administration has done, then do political stunts to get TV coverage) knowing full well they can't actually unilaterally stop that something outrageous from happening. But because they don't have the power to unilaterally stop something outrageous, it'll look like Democrats failed when they did something in response to something outrageous. Do this a few more times and after a while they begin to see Democrats as a failed party.
Doom loop. Why does Trump seem to get away with it? Because many voters are under the illusion that you have to 'break some eggs' and by golly most Democrats (and I count Never-Trumpers in here) just aren't that stupid to fall for that excuse to act negligently.
So two scenarios: (1) everything slowly breaks, or (2) too many things breaking all at once. Like Carville, I'm betting on (2) creating a shock to the system that causes enough chaos (in the markets and to enough people personally), getting Americans to the realization that 'enough is enough, already'. That's why Carville is saying Democrats should stop getting in the way of Trump when they can't actually stop something outrageous. Like Carville, I have faith that the administration will collapse under the weight of its own fuckery.
So what's the Democratic message while avoiding the doom loop? Sell the future:
(1) Identify the goal (stop America from collapsing);
(2) Identify the how (remove Trump);
(2) Outline actions required to stop the hemorrhaging;
(3) Describe how to fix what's broken (via consulting w/ policy experts);
(4) Explain the actions to prevent this from happening again (burn all the rich people, figuratively speaking).
I'd call it, "The Day After Project 2025: How We Recover and Build a Better Future", to bury the Federalist Society with a nice headstone/marker.
Do that instead of doing something in response to something outrageous.
Also, there's a bonus: Hell yeah, fucking Schadenfreude!!!
But as a politician, for goodness sakes, don't say that part out loud.
+1
+10!
well put
Excellent analysis.
(1) Identify the goal (stop America from collapsing);
(2) Identify the how (remove Trump);
(2) Outline actions required to stop the hemorrhaging;
(3) Describe how to fix what's broken (via consulting w/ policy experts);
(4) Explain the actions to prevent this from happening again (burn all the rich people, figuratively speaking).
Good message. But getting that message out sounds to me like "doing something", no?
It's a concrete strategy full of many specific things rather than a bunch of somethings.
Oh, I see. "Many specific things" trumps "a bunch of somethings".
I'm having trouble getting my head around that. My head's problem. Sorry.
Agreed. This is not what Carville or Kevin appear to be advocating for. In fact, it's the opposite of the Carville/Kevin Drum approach.
Don't wait for the problem to solve itself and hand you victory. Take action. Start now.
D_Ohr's argument that you should do something that works instead of something that doesn't work is an obvious point and hes right. Noone is arguing that Dems should do something that doesnt work.
But this is certainly different than Carvilles argument
"Carville told Mediaite’s Dan Abrams that the Trump administration would “collapse” within 30 days and advised Democrats to sit back and let it happen."
Do I have to point out it's been longer than 30 days already? That sounds like bad advice, bad advice, everybody makes occasional mistakes, and that was bad advice.
Democrats have a shrinking base of support and those who are ambivalent (non voters) really aren’t interested in the stated agenda. There is nothing democrats could say or do which would change minds. Republicans need to fail and cause chaos to change minds.
Democrats will have to get tough on criminals, oppose immigration, and stop talking about homosexuality and transgender to make a dent. And then… what’s the point of being liberal.
It won’t work to try to appeal to the working class on economic policy. They don’t care.
The right wing begins to train its supporters on economic policy. Hilarious.
Prices and inflation are different. Inflation is the speed of rising prices — now 3% versus a year ago based on CPI. Prices overall don’t fall. Select categories may, but broadly falling prices – aka deflation – well, developed nations don’t do that.
https://nypost.com/2025/02/24/business/why-the-war-on-inflation-is-over-even-though-the-experts-dont-get-it/
You use the word "hilarious" far too often. It will read much better without it.
Thanks… it’s dripping with sarcasm and contempt.
https://youtu.be/-SRbSvYbBdw?si=ZlGQzdnGfLk9_yT4
The Democrats tried being tough on criminals. The Republicans elected them any way. "Tough on crime" is not helpful.
So far, nothing Trump has done has resulted in noticeable changes to day-to-day life for most of us. I read a lot of news every day, so I'm atypical, but it seems to me the Democratic response _has_ been persistent and loud enough. The way Carville puts it is glib, but he's probably right on the merits of his argument. Until more of us actually, directly feel the pain that Trump and his mob inflicts, the debate about it doesn't matter. For most of us, it's just a show on a stage so far away that it's easy to ignore. We've all been through enough real "shock and awe," actual crises that have had a direct effect on us, over the past 25 years that we know what the real thing looks and feels like. Right now we're still riding on the Biden dividend, but that's not going to last much longer. I'm thinking it will take until summer before it starts to get bad enough for people to notice something's seriously gone wrong.
Yes, but if you don't start now to hold Trump to account, then when the shit hits the fan, he will be in a better position to blame Democrats, as he undoubtedly will.
the Democrats need to change their logo to an ostrich?
Screw that!
There are people out there that just voted themselves or family members out of jobs and are blaming Biden. That is the power of griping and it is free
Democrats should only be saying one of three things on the House and Senate floors:
NO/NAY
I OBJECT
POINT OF ORDER
Save their questions for Committee hearings, save the speeches for fundraisers, and just demand maximum time on the floor while doing crossword puzzles.
If Democrats want to win in 2028 in the face of the massive authoritarian headwinds that will make the task nearly quixotic, they they must choose someone unorthodox and absolutely authentic. No more mealy mouthed attempts to offend no one, but rather someone who says what they think, even if that sometimes slaps one liberal interest group or another in the face. Yes, this means you are going to have to accept someone who will gore a couple of your oxen, but your alternative is Trump III, or if his health fails, Vance.
BOOMER, NO! This is the freakin’ boomer Dem “oh we’re so damn clever ever since our guy played a sax on Arsineo” approach that always effing flops!
Democrats should be making Every. Single. Trumpism. Step. As. Painful. As. Possible! We should be making every thing politically expensive and throw sand in the gears!
Dems should NOT spend much time: sending out lame press releases, reading dry statements in the well, going on MSNBC
Dems SHOULD: be driving protests outside Republican house member offices in DC and locally; driving Repub switchboard flooding; holding loud, angry press conferences outside the VA hospitals and military bases where jobs are being incinerated; going on Faux News with fired military vets and bankrupted farmers at their side to talk about how heartless and and awful this all is, and how angry people are
So when the time to negotiate comes, Dems have both LEVERAGE and an IRATE public behind them. I mean seriously, we just saw this with the tea party, for gawd’s sake… The *sustained* part of “sustained pressure” is important.
SMH…
This is the complete opposite of what should happen. The democrats SHOULD be sending out lame press releases, reading dry statements in the well, going on MSNBC. Because the real action should be at the state level and in the courts.
The democrats SHOULD NOT be doing dumb, preformative shit (particularly harassment) that "feels good." That just reminds wavering Republicans that the Democrats are the "other team."
Has James Carville been involved in a significant American Electoral victory since 1992? I'm checking, but it looks like he wasn't even the lead strategist in 98 and since then he worked for Kerry, Clinton (08), and Bennet on Presidential bids. So, as a strategist, he picks a lot of losers. He's also been heavily embedded in the Palantir system, so I wouldn't trust that his brain is anything but mush today.
Dems shouldn't play possum, they need a message, and the avatar of their message should be Musk. Look to Sheinbaum as an example since she was one of the only candidates to not suffer the incumbent ouster in the last round of elections. She's been doing lengthy briefings directly to the public without relying on the media for a middleman and she's been pinpointing blame on the private equity and investor class that is extracting everything of value from the world. Obama ran on hope and change, won, then delivered more of the same, which disillusioned a lot of younger voters. Dems should do the hope and change but be more specific.
The Dem message should be "Musk bought control of the government so he could rob us blind and steal your taxes. His finance friends are taking over your hospitals, nursing homes, stores, and factories so they can steal everything that isn't nailed down while making you suffer for their 3rd home. Elect us and we'll make sure that everyone has a voice in government and keeps the life they worked hard for." You can get into more specifics about shrinkflation, planned obsolescence, cheap quality goods, endless scam phone calls, etc. Until the Dems can accurately point the finger at who is causing the harm and actually mean it when they take power all we'll get is oscillation between creeping authoritarianism and sprinting authoritarianism until we have another civil war.
There are two problems with this attitude, and they are potentially bad ones.
The first is the indifference to collateral damage. That should be one of theirs, not one of ours.
The other is the historical fact that our messaging always begins too late. Starting the message early is never a problem, as it then must in any case be kept up until it becomes effective; but if it starts late, it never gains any credibility at all.
(And then the third and largest problem is that the first two should be overwhelmingly obvious but somehow they are not.)
Quite nicely summarized.
There would be collateral damage regardless; Democrats do not have the unilateral power to stop it, but they do have the ability to allow the administration to collapse and to step in to fix everything as fast as possible.
We can compare the recoveries, of using stimulus $, from the 2008-2009 recession and the 2020 COVID recession to understand the issue. The faster we stopped the bleeding, the fewer people were permanently affected detrimentally.
Let's say Medicaid is slashed for 1 year or 2: Which one will be more detrimental?
I don't think Trump cares about his numbers anymore, why should we.
I have reached the point where even if Dems win back the Senate and the House at midterms, which are very far away at this moment, that it won't matter.
Trump isn't using Congress now, why would things change? What will be different if Dems are in charge of the Legislature? I don't see a way to rein him in.
Only the Courts, but we know how that goes...
Democrats have been pointing out what's wrong with Trump since 2015, and they have even been supported to some extent by the media. This didn't prevent him from being elected in 2016 and again in 2024. Trump basically said what he was going to do if elected in 2024 and now he is doing it.
He lost in 2020 because at least some people found out in real time what he and Republicans were really doing and trying to do in his administration, such as kill the ACA, and they could see how incompetent Trump is in a real job instead of just ranting and lying in rallies.
As the media exist now, that is a both-sider MSM and a right-wing propaganda machine, Democrats have a limited ability to get out their message and counter the lies of Trump and Republicans. There is no reason to think that Democrats attacking Trump just now would be any more effective in itself than it was in the past.
Voters and possibly some people in authority will just have to find out again how incompetent and malevolent Trump is. Or find out how much worse he is this time than in the previous administration. People will be disillusioned as they see promises are not fulfilled or as they themselves are actually harmed, even if there isn't a major crash. This process, which is a normal political cycle, is not under control of Democratic politicians.