Ross Douthat joins a cast of millions today to ask:
Why Is Joe Biden So Unpopular?
The answer is: he's not. How often do I have to post this chart before the message gets through? Here are our last four presidents at week 133 of their first terms:¹
¹Excluding George W. Bush, as usual, because of his 9/11 bump.
(1) it is in the interest of every "conservative" propagandist to faithfully repeat the mantra that Biden is unpopular.
(2) it is in the interest of most media to allow it to be repeated in the name of "balanced coverage," lest they (horrors!) be accused of "librul bias."
(3) at 14 months before the election, poll respondents are not approving or disapproving of Biden relative to Trump; they are comparing him to a fuzzy ideal. "Well, the economy seems to be doing okay, but he's old, and I wish gas prices weren't so high ..." IOW, his numbers are soft, in contrast to Trump's, which are very hard indeed. This will change materially when people start thinking about a 2-way contest rather than vague "approval."
It amazes me so many people point to gas prices, as if those are the only thing that matters in life.
Or, they'll pay $5 for 12 ounces of coffee and then bitch about $5 for a gallon of gas.
????????????????????
This is ignorant. Most people that are impacted by gas price increases are living paycheck to paycheck. They are not buying $5 coffees every day.
And, this is super offensive. Instead of acknowledging the problem and assigning any responsibility to political leaders, you essentially say the real issue is with my budgeting of our family's finances. I would love to see a democrat publicly take this stance and see what kind of blowback they would get.
Vs anything else that's gone up (and down) in price; I agree. I think it's two things.
(1) the media have harped on it incessantly, and "advertising works." If you repeat something enough times, it seeps into people's brains. Look at Hunter Biden and his laptop. (Harry Potter and the Laptop of Hunter Biden) As KD observed a while ago, nothing has been proven, and in fact very little has been formally alleged, against Hunter other than a tax violation long set right and a very minor gun violation, neither of which has to do with a laptop. But that doesn't stop a large fraction of Americans from believing there's something hinky going on with his laptop.
(2) Gas price hits only occasionally -- when you fill up -- and in big chunks -- "damn that just cost $65!" (Or $80 or $95 -- the big trucks and SUVs that Americans have been buying for a while have big tanks.) Even if prices haven't gone up much -- or even come down! -- it sticks in people's minds as a big chunk of change.
The NY Times found it necessary to put a front page article on the Sunday Times about how Hunter was a political liability for Biden. Of course there's no allegation that the President has done anything wrong, but that there's an appearance of impropriety.
When the price increase makes it harder to pay your other bills or impacts your discretionary spending, yeah, it becomes a big deal. The majority of people in this country live paycheck to paycheck. An extra $150 or so above what you were paying a couple years ago for gas is not insignificant for many people.
The president gets blamed for everything bad that happens, and has a hard time taking credit for the good stuff. It sort of goes with the territory.
Inflation? War in Europe? Crime? Political Unrest? Climate disasters? Your uncle's bad breath? It's all the president's fault. Why doesn't he fix it???
Interesting contrast - Rachel Maddow had a segment in which she looked at the approval ratings of governors. They ranged from around 54 to 74, but all 50 of them were above 50 percent. Yes, every single governor in the country has a positive approval rating. I guess since governors aren't expected to solve all of the world's problems, they can get more credit for small, local victories.
Presumably, the Governors of each state were elected with a large plurality if not > 50% of the votes within their state. And the voters of other states are not asked their opinion of him/her.
In contrast, a President has not necessarily carried each state of the Union but pollsters will be asking voters in every state about him/her. And it likely also matters if the pollsters pick numbers “a la House” (from each State according to its population…) or “a la Senate” (from each State equally)
If you're trying to measure a president's national approval rate, it would be mathematical lunacy to give each state equal weight.
I came here to make that very point, but then as I was making it I spotted the problem:
While it's true that presidents don't win every state, governors also don't win every county.
Your speculation seems sound--if pollsters do some kind of electoral college type correction whereby they, say, greatly over-weight the respondents of Wyoming and under-weight those of California, then Republicans would have a large built-in advantage in opinion polling.
But just on its face that seems like a bonkers thing to do and I'm not aware that any pollsters do it when measuring approval. Do they?
"I guess since governors aren't expected to solve all of the world's problems, they can get more credit for small, local victories."
Whitmer in Michigan has repeatedly shut down talk of a presidential bid for those reasons, and the fact that she can get more actual good done, what with a Dem legislature and Supreme Court.
If she goes to Tax Town, she'll have to deal with Joe Manchin on a daily basis.
God.
The job approval rating is meaningless because Democrats say he is doing well and Republicans say he is doing poorly out of party loyalty. Ask Democrats whether he should run for re-election and compare that to past Presidents.
"Ask Democrats whether he should run for re-election and compare that to past Presidents."
No, ask Democrats if they would vote for him in 2024. I'm betting they say "yes."
"No, ask Democrats if they would vote for him in 2024. I'm betting they say "yes.""
That doesn't mean they like him.
Then again, when's the last election when most everyone did NOT feel they had to choose "the lesser of two evils"? And a significant part of the voter population just decided "Well, they're BOTH 'evil', so I won't even vote!"
2016? No, Dem voters had been cowed by nearly three decades of generalized Clinton-bashing, and over a decade focused laser-like on Hillary. And repubs, of course, have always hated her. Woman! Smart! Powerful! NOOOOOOO! Many of them even stood up against that Noo York City grifter and charlatan, the Defendant.
2020? Not hardly. Dems held their noses and voted for a clearly qualified, moderate to progressive, experienced candidate ... but OLD! Unforgiveable! And that other guy, impeached, divisive, no accomplishments other than making the US the Most Hated Nation, and look at all those COVID deaths... all you could say for him was he made the Libz cry and had an (R ) after his name.
Maybe 1964, when LBJ had the advantage of JFK nostagia. But everything else? The lesser of two evils. Choices nobody really liked.
Nobody liked Obama?
It doesn't. But, also, it's kind of the only thing that really matters?
Go find a story about Biden's approval rating. Just choose one at random. And it's pretty likely that the story will move from that approval rating to a discussion of its significance in the upcoming election.
Every last one of these stories I've seen boils down to "His approval rating is about where Obama's was at this point, so he's doomed."
The absence of serious challengers in the primary, with no significant move within the party to find an alternative, speaks for itself. Pundits (and of course Republicans) are desperate to make up negative stories about "80 year-old Biden" to "balance" all the negative stories they have to publish about Trump.
Thank all the gods Donald Trump is a youthful 77! Why, he has even been known to walk down a ramp! Without a handrail!
And drink water from a glass held in his own two hands!
He's still bragging about the "acuity test" he took around six years ago and which consisted of repeating five words.
Good ones! The Lincoln Project even has an ad to this effect: "Two Presidents"...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjnB8HhaaGs
+1
I disagree that Biden isn't unpopular. It's just that he's no more unpopular than other recent presidents, who were also all unpopular to varying degrees.
Yet Clinton and Obama were re-elected.
To that point, I think a lot of people are surprised that, given how much Biden has accomplished, they're genuinely surprised he's not more popular than all recent presidents.
And of course, the likely reason for this is because echo chambers have nudged partisanship to expand and solidify.
Uh, if more people dislike you than like you, you are by definition unpopular. It makes everyone unpopular. Also Biden is lower than most on the scale.
Post it all you want but it wont matter because Biden is unpopular.
Biden is the red line and thus more popular than Trump or Obama and less popular than Clinton.
I saw a different graphic of past presidents and that one showed Biden as between Trump and Carter the 1 termers at this point in their terms. Also Obama was significantly more popular until just recently. So in general Obama was better liked.
So I am disputing the measurements.
"Biden is the red line and thus more popular than Trump or Obama and less popular than Clinton."
Yes, he's more popular than Obama at week 133. Not at 123. Or 113. Or 103. Or 93. Maybe at 83, though - meaningless Biden uptick and Obama trough coincide about then! But not at 73. Or 63. Or 53. Or....
And the graph should show 143, 153, 163, etc. to see if Obama bounces back up.
All the graph really shows is that Biden's popularity has been pretty similar to the very unpopular Trump over weeks 60 - 130, and usually (or almost always) behind the other two but rarely by double digits.
If KD would show what happens to the other three past week 133 it would be a lot more helpful in letting us know if he has much of a point in this comparison; if Obama bounces back up and Clinton doesn't have a drop I'd say he has no point at all.
I’d like to see the margin of error. I suspect there are few points where the differences aren’t just noise.
Yes, I agree that this looks like very weak graph to make the point that Biden is not unpopular. The red line seems to be on the whole the lowest one, sometimes even lower than Trump. Even to be level with Trump is no great achievement.
This analysis by Kevin seems to be below his usual standards. I myself would rate Biden above the other three (and way above Trump), but in elections we must defer to the "wisdom" of the masses.
Kevin needs to explain why the point he is trying to make is so opaque from the data he offers.
What would journalists at NYT and NPR talk about if not how unpopular Biden is? Any perceived criticism of Trump would just get them a whole lot of violent threats from the right wing and charges that they are not balanced in their treatment of know-nothing racist authoritarianism vs progressive democracy.
+1
J. Frank Parnell has this right, as do others, but I have floated a bunch of Democratic potential names that I like, that they have a good resume, have energy, verve, and should be attractive across a broad swath of the Democratic electorate.
I have been shot down on most liberal/progressive blogs for even bringing up such a suggestion...objections are real however...Teddy Kennedy's challenge of Carter some say guaranteed Regan's win, with all that that meant.
I will of course vote for Joe, I will even work for him if the proper opportunity comes knocking...but he is hardly my first, second or third Democratic choice for the 2024 election.
Like everywhere else, you all can now say I am terrible human being and exactly what is wrong with the Democratic Party for suggesting such an....outrageous thing as choosing someone other than a sitting Democratic president. Best Wishes, Traveller
...choosing someone other than a sitting Democratic president.
The central problem with your thesis is: Joe Biden is running. Full stop. So unless you can convince him otherwise, nominating someone else requires a primary challenge.
Even in the incredibly unlikely event such an effort were to succeed, we'd be replacing Joe with someone who hasn't run for president, and therefore hasn't been vetted on the national stage anywhere near to the extent Biden has been. I like the sound of "Whitmer-Shapiro" as much as the next guy. Sounds great on paper! But DeSantis sounded pretty good on paper, too.
1) We all wish Joe Biden were 58. But there's nothing to be done about that, so,
2) Our only realistic course of action is to make sure 81 year old Joe Biden gets reelected.
We'll see if he serves a full term. My guess is he bows out after the 2026 midterms. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. First there's that little matter of sending Cheato packing....
Should add: an actual, competitive (and undoubtedly highly vituperative) primary battle would damage the Democratic brand next year, were it to come to pass. So if (as seems highly likely) Biden were to prevail, he'd be wounded. Maybe badly so.
My guess is that, while Carter was hurt by Ted Kennedy's challenge in 1980, Reagan would have beaten him in any event: a double digit misery index will tend to do that. That election wasn't destined to be a close affair.
But 2024 is overwhelmingly likely to be a close election. America's 51-49, "scorpions in a bottle" political culture guarantees that. And in a close election, yes, absolutely, a messy primary that draws blood very likely would be a difference-maker.
Again, we all wish he were younger. But that's no reason to abandon common sense: jettisoning a highly vetted and successful presidential nominee is very risky. And accomplishing that at the price of a bloody, internecine party battle would be the height of lunacy.
And, might I note, that's why we have Vice Presidents. Plus a whole line of succession, should the worst occur. (Like "Designated Survivor").
Agree, except that I don’t think 2024 will be particularly close. TFG has done nothing to broaden his appeal since losing the popular vote by 2.8 and then 7 million votes, nor even to maintain support at what seems to be his ceiling of 46% of the electorate. Add to that some increased Democratic turnout due to Dobbs; Republican-leaners discouraged by TFG’s indictments. R opposition to infrastructure, student-loan relief and prescription-drug price negotiations. Democrats need to hammer the GOP on its steadfast opposition to anything that benefits non-wealthy Americans.
As long as nothing bad happens, you are probably right that Trump lose by a large margin. But economic crisis or Biden health crisis may change it. Neither of these is unrealistic, even if they are low-probability.
Considering the amount of damage that Trump will do if he gets even close to winning, that is a high risk situation.
(That is not about whether Biden should run or not)
To expand upon your additional comment, Jasper, all the people proposing alternatives fail to realize that incumbency means a LOT in an election. I don't have any idea what the actual measure would be in percentage points, but it's definitely several. In the end most people who are still undecided up until election day choose to avoid the risk of the new over the familiar, even if "unpopular." Only the presidents with the most severely negative favorability ratings in modern times have failed to win reelection.
Trump happened to be somewhat of an outlier in that he lost without the severely low favorability of Carter and Bush Sr. on election day, but on average he was the least popular president of any president since FDR over the course of his term.
...the people proposing alternatives fail to realize that incumbency means a LOT in an election.
Yes. the incumbency advantage is a real thing in US presidential politics.
Even if it's only 1-2%, that's enough, in the right places, to lose the election.
You're right. All these scenarios I think come with a presuming that as soon as some credible politician announces they're running against him, he'll, for some odd reason, announce he won't run. But what if he does run anyways? Then what? If Whitmer-Shapiro-Newsome et.al basically agree with every policy Biden has accomplished then they're only message of difference is "I'm young, he's old". That message no more won the Presidency for Adalai Stevenson or Walter Mondale anymore than it will for the aforementioned against Biden. Because it isn't a message, it's just vanity. They're smart enough to know this and that's why they're not running.
I don't know - take a look at his press conference in Vietnam and tell me that is not highly concerning. Maybe the Democrats need to lose to an indicted idiot who very well be behind bars for his inauguration to wake up.
That will be too late. There will not be actual elections after that for a while.
For the last time: Joe Biden is not unpopular
Narrator: It was not, actually, for the last time.
Ross Douthat's mother took him to a phrenologist when he was 8 who told him he was the smartest boy he's ever examined. Ross has held onto that memory his entire life.
Is there any reason other than unintended comedy to read Lil' Ross?
The last I checked being below 50% is unpopular. All recent Presidents save GWB have been unpopular at this point in their terms. Biden is still unpopular, and I’d argue even more unpopular among his party than recent Presidents that don’t reflect in those polls because the question they ask is too simplistic.
Biden is unpopular because even the people who approve of him, approve of his accomplishments, and will vote for him would rather it be someone else, someone younger. You can call it ageist all you want but Biden shouldn’t be President at 80. He shouldn’t have to. The bigger problem is that there’s really not anyone to replace him. Harris is one death away from the Oval Office and would likely be a competent President if the unthinkable happened but would also be even more unpopular.
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The political press loves their narratives, the right-wingers most of all. They hated Hillary Clinton so they pounded the "everybody hates Hillary" narrative. It worked. They loved it. Right now they want to bring down Biden, so they will write "nobody wants Biden to be president" articles every week or so. Because the voters who decided elections in the swing states are ignorant & stupid, they will absorb & repeat this.
The question is not whether Biden (or Trump or Obama) is unpopular at a given point in time, but *why*. Trump was unpopular because 60% of the country believed he was a completely unqualified buffoon and tyrant. Which he was. I think Biden's negatives are more nuanced. People are still upset that prices for a lot of things remain higher than before the pandemic -- in other words, that there hasn't been serious *deflation* to reverse the inflation from 21-22, even as inflation going forward has largely reverted to normal. People are concerned about the asylum-migrant crisis, though largely because Republicans have successfully demagogued the issue while simultaneously refusing to do anything serious around immigration reform. And finally there's the age issue. So can a good campaign address those things to bring down people's anxiety? He can't get any younger, but getting out there and talking about the good bills he's signed, how inflation has been tamed, and calling out Republicans for making the migrant crisis *worse* with their bigotry, showboating, and stonewalling might start getting things back on track.
Biden's approval rating is below 50%, so it is not unreasonable to say he is unpopular.
And it is also reasonable to point out that all other recent presidents have been equally unpopular.
The lesson here is that if you want to be liked, don't be president.
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_Clearly_ Biden is 'unpopular' since less than fifty percent of those polled approve of him. Yeah, sure. Fine. Whatever. And for all of that, evolution is still 'just a theory'.
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9/11 was 9 months in to his first term. We are now 32 perhaps 33 months into Biden’s first term. Ie basically two years past the “9/11” moment. Is omitting Bush still really indicated? The chart for him at Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx
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