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Here Is the Fundamental Mystery of the 2020 Rise in Murder

Published on 36 Comments on Here Is the Fundamental Mystery of the 2020 Rise in Murder

Here is the fundamental mystery of crime in the US over the past year:

As you might guess, the murder rate and the overall violent crime rate usually rise and fall in tandem. But in 2020, they suddenly diverged by an enormous amount: Compared to 2019, violent crime rose 3.3% while the murder rate went up 25%.

If you're interested in the murder rate beyond partisan talking points, this is what you need to explain. What could account for a huge increase in homicides but not in violent crime more generally? Police presence seems an unlikely explanation. Perhaps it has something to do with the nature of murder, which is usually committed against someone you know.

In any case, this is what needs explaining. But be careful. This is trickier than it looks.

36 thoughts on “Here Is the Fundamental Mystery of the 2020 Rise in Murder”

    1. Martin Stett

      When I worked at an alternative school, the week after Christmas holidays were spent cooling the kids down after a week or so of prolonged family confinement. Relatives they hadn't seen for months were in their face every day.

    4. JonF311

      Someone should try to ferret out whether domestic violence increased. Though you'd think that would be reflected in the stats for all violent crime not just homicide.
      Here in Baltimore it was very definitely gangland type killings which increased. One explanation early on was that the lockdowns disrupted the drug trade and created greater rivalry among the gangs, leading to more shootings. Though that should have eased as the lockdowns did, unless there's a long tail of revenge killings . Another possible factor: with lots of closed businesses and far fewer people out and about it became easier to kill people without having to worry about witnesses and people immediately calling 911 (and in the latter case more victims then died before help reached them since the shootings were not witnessed).

      1. kahner

        i have no expertise but i was guessing the vast majority of domestic violence goes unreported, so a spike might go largely unseen in official stats. but when it ends in murder, that will pretty much always be reported.

    6. DudePlayingDudeDisguisedAsAnotherDude

      That's my guess as well. Maybe there's an element of domestic violence, but maybe just being stuck at home with nothing to do leads to some sort of agitation that can come out sideways.

  2. jamesepowell

    It's homicides, not just murders. We need to examine and sort the homicides into domestic/family, incident to a robbery, road rage, bar fights, gang warfare, etc.

    I'd be surprised if the rates were up for all types of homicides.

    1. ProudMonkey

      Yes. Kevin keeps posting about the overall rate, but the answer is likely to be found in the types of homicide. Though if they have all gone up about the same then we are back to his question.

  3. cld

    I would ask, are attempted murders decreasing?

    Because if they are it would mean people are getting better at successful murder, which presumably would mean their marksmanship is improving.

    Because guns are much better than they used to be and video games give people a lot of practice.

        2. cld

          Then it's plainly either right or wrong.

          What else could explain a dramatic increase in successful murder without a commensurate increase in failed attempts, if not a lot more rehearsal?

    1. cephalopod

      Police are finding more guns during stops and shootings are up in many places.

      It's hard to know how much that is caused by the massive sales of guns in recent years, changes in policing, or pandemic-related changes to who is out-and-about.

  5. Alex R

    Hey Kevin, you're the data guy... What does the data say? Break it down -- where are these murders (or homicides) taking place? Who are the victims? Who are the perpetrators? What are the weapons used?

    I think you need to look at this sort of information before you can start to understand the reasons.

  6. Total

    Could it be a reporting issue? Ie, violent crimes are actually up as well, but people aren’t reporting them as much because of pandemic/post George Floyd fallout, whereas homicides come with a body. Hard to miss.

  8. johnholbrook1

    Kevin can keep sticking his fingers in his ears and pretend like no one else has tackled this question, I guess.

    The reason is the numbers of guns on the street. Murder rate spiked in Ferguson in 2015, in Chicago a few years later. It happened nationwide in summer 2020 and has continued through 2021.

    Less proactive policing removed fewer firearms from the streets. It's called the "Ferguson effect," documented by Fryer among others.

    1. Justin

      That’s just a symptom. Why are these criminals inclined to kill? Having a gun makes the problem deadly, but it doesn’t explain why they are so evil to start with.

  9. Pingback: Murder and Violent Crime: An Even Closer Look – Kevin Drum

  11. Justin

    I don’t know why the rate went up, but I’m pretty sure the police are useless in this regard. The shootings in my small city are confined to the black community and the some reporting indicates that it is mostly well armed young men arguing on social media and then doing drive bys. Most of it happens in the middle of the night too so these thugs are up to no good anyway. I’m not sure I care if the cops shoot them on sight.

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