Here's my kind-of-weekly summary of COVID-19 deaths in the US and six other peer countries. To make up for my sloth in being a few days late with this, I've expanded it to include lots more great information.
First, here are death rates:
We're at more than double the rate of the second-place country and still skyrocketing. Here are case rates in the United States:
With the exception of a few outliers like Oregon and Washington, high case rates are almost exclusively found in the most conservative regions of the old South, where the politics are Trumpish and devotion to Fox News is highest.
Here are vaccination rates:
The US started to flatten out more than a month ago and is only barely above 50%. Other countries not only have higher vaccination rates than we do, but they're continuing to increase.
Finally, here's the latest Kaiser poll showing who has the highest and lowest vaccination rates:
The delta between Democrats and Republicans is now an astonishing 32 percentage points. That's double even the rural-urban divide (16 points) and half again higher than the education divide (20 points).
PNW person here... Worth considering that once you leave Seattle region or Portland region (the population centers), you're basically in Alabama. If you look at the counties Seattle and Portland are in, you'll see they are yellow. It does feel a bit like we're surrounded by idiots, and plenty of them come in to town to breathe on us, and use our healthcare facilities.
Red counties rely on the largesse of blue counties. If they were on their own their living standards would resemble Somalia.
I would say more like one of the poorer LatAm countries, with a similar history of authoritarianism, extreme economic oligarchy, religiosity, and racial division. Were the South to have succeeded 150 years ago, or should they yet manage to secede, I think very quickly that’s what the new country would come to resemble.
I came here to say the exact same thing, @jonnymac27. I can't speak for OR, but if you look at the heatmap of WA it's striking how the county results are inversionally proportional to population size; all the major urban centers are much lighter than the wingnut rural/exurban counties.
Some years ago, a friend of mine was visiting from the northeast; he was staying with me in Seattle, and one night we went to visit my brother, who lived down in Orting (out past Puyallup). The drive from Seattle took less than an hour, but as we neared our destination, passing cow pastures and crazy right-wing roadsigns and shit-kicker bars choked with rolling-coal pickups in huge gravel parking lots, he turned to me with an astonished look on his face and said "Holy shit, it gets 'country' FAST out here!"
It really does.
Yes, exactly. I visited Portland in 2018 just before the midterms, and TBH I was kind of surprised at the sheer number of people I talked to (even in Portland! but they were from the sticks and had moved there) who were extremely... let's just say libertarian.
Some ot that's weed, some is crystals, some is crystal methamphetamine...
I said this yesterday and I'll take the opportunity to say it again.
While Florida certainly has a terrible governor, our vaccination rate is almost exactly the same as the rate of the US as a whole. FL is also a very big and very diverse state. Dade county (Miami) is very different from Duval county (Jacksonville) and both are quite different from Leon count (Tallahassee) and all of those are very different from the many tiny rural counties like Gadsden, Dixie, and Liberty. Many of these places are hundreds of miles from each other, with vastly different population densities, racial compositions, you name it.
Why COVID infections are so incredibly bad in FL right now in all areas of the state when the vaccination rate is FL is better than about half the states in the country (way better than Texas for example) is not something easily explained.
Oh, it is easily enough explained via sweeping generalization confirmation bias.
Also known as Facts.
Well, I mean, its very easy to explain in the following sense.
1. Infections have always been a relatively small set of the population. CA is at 28 cases per 100,000, and FL is at 106 per 100,000. That's 78 cases out of ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND.
2. Considering the percentage of unvaccinated there are still many people who are covid candidates, millions to be exact.
3. The easy explanation is how much, or how little, the general population pays attention to mitigation efforts, such as mask wearing and avoiding gatherings of more than a couple people not already in your household.
Its hard to exactly quantify the mask wearing benefit, for example, because its not the type of thing one could easily do in a double blind clinical trial, especially when actual exposure to the virus is random.
But that does not make it hard to explain,
Your point #3 being well established, widely discussed, and not at all difficult to explain.
One gets SO tired of the right-wing vic
Your point #3 being well established, widely discussed, and not at all difficult to explain.
One gets SO tired of the right-wing victimhood complex…
Because the people who didn't get vaccinated are getting infected at high rates, due to a more communicable variant of the disease. These same unvaccinated people are making a show out of doing risky activities, and then are shocked when they actually get the disease and end up in the hospital.
Seems obvious.
I agree. Florida has an exceptionally bad rate of infections but an average rate of vaccinations. Did the delta variant get there earlier than everywhere else? Is it about climate and people gathering in air conditioned spaces? Is it because of travel and tourism? Or did the people of this state give up on mitigation measures more than other states?
Those are all possible explanations, but maybe not easy to find facts on.
First, definitely climate plays a large part. Same pattern as last year. In summer the south is at a weather disadvantage compared to the north, especially Florida. In winter the reverse is true.
Everybody seems to forget that, in the big winter wave, Florida was doing better than most of the nation, including say California.
Travel and tourism may play a small part. Not so much by having more entrants to the state (really change little unless the other area has a lot more cases). But more that people on vacation move around and interact with others more . But my guess minor factor.
Also big thing to me is amount of natural immunity in the population. And florida actually does not compare as well as people think in that regard. It just is not true that way more people got covid in fla before this wave. Cannot really just look at cumulative cade rates as too many differences in things like testing volume and policy. I think maybe more accurate comparison is death rate adjusted for things like age ( as Florida has so many elderly, with same number of actual cases , they should have a higher death rate). And for missing deaths, which is a big issue mainly in states like NY and NJ which had the big wave in spring 2020. No way had ny really had fewer cases per capita than fla unless you think fla did a far far better job at preventing deaths per case.
And another point is age of natural immunity. Florida is unusual in that their summer 2020 wave was bigger than their winter wave. Most states winter wave was the big one ( with other exceptions being those killed in spring 2020). So most of Florida's natural immunity has had over a year to wane. While winter wave states have more recent natural immunity.
Note in winter, fla will have the age of immunity advantage again.
I predict that in winter of 2021, cases in fla will be well below national average.
Reasonable points to consider. I'm hoping there is enough immunity building up, through vaccination and infection, to make this winter less covid-burdened than last winter, all over the Americas and Europe.
With the natural immunity and vaccinations, it will be nearly impossible for this winter to be even close to last winter ..
If it is, that would be an absolutely horrible long term sign that the world is screwed and no way out.
But a smaller wave is certainly possible. And given that it seems natural immunity is much better than vaccine for preventing spread , it will hit harder more likely in the places which managed to limit their cases so far ( thus less natural immunity) but still have a decent sized pool of unvaccinated for the virus to kill. Places like Canada that have had a lower case number and natural immunity but that have done well in vaccinations will likely have a fairly high case count but at least limit the deaths. I predict by November at least canada will have significantly higher case counts per capita than the usa and probably higher deaths per capita .
Here in the USA, watch places like VT and Maine.
What would really be a bad sign is if we start to see ny and nj blow up and lead the nation. That might indicate that natural immunity starts wearing off after a year and a half. That area will be the canary in the coal mine in that regard.
Unless a new variant comes along and rises up on Delta, I doubt we'll see much of a COVID surge anywhere in winter 2021 (due to the current burn rate), but it does seem as if we'll see some resurgence from the flu and other respiratory diseases.
Of course the decision of FLorida not to staff testing labs thereby reducing the number of test processed won;t play into that will it?
From: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vPxCBqCXsRvjR3PdLn0vXdJQF3wao-Ry5bS3Fe_9Qxs/edit?usp=sharing
Rank Population (Millions) Country Deaths/Day/Million 7-dav Avg
1 4.00 Georgia 17.80
2 2.08 North Macedonia 14.12
3 1.81 Kosovo 10.57
4 11.69 Tunisia 10.03
5 21.32 Sri Lanka 9.59
6 31.95 Malaysia 9.12
7 1.15 Eswatini 8.96
8 82.91 Iran 7.76
9 11.33 Cuba 7.58
10 7.00 Bulgaria 6.29
11 2.30 Botswana 5.58
12 127.58 Mexico 5.56
13 58.56 South Africa 5.48
14 145.87 Russia 5.35
15 2.95 Jamaica 5.23
16 1.39 Trinidad and Tobago 4.92
17 329.06 US 4.04
18 69.04 Thailand 3.80
19 5.05 Costa Rica 3.71
20 10.05 Azerbaijan 3.58
21 96.46 Vietnam 3.55
22 2.96 Armenia 3.28
23 211.05 Brazil 3.20
24 44.78 Argentina 3.18
25 8.52 Israel 3.14
26 7.04 Paraguay 3.02
27 17.58 Guatemala 3.01
28 10.47 Greece 2.93
29 83.43 Turkey 2.90
30 6.78 Libya 2.89
31 270.63 Indonesia 2.79
32 2.76 Lithuania 2.74
33 9.75 Honduras 2.64
34 36.47 Morocco 2.55
35 46.74 Spain 2.47
36 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.25
37 18.55 Kazakhstan 2.16
38 54.05 Burma 2.08
39 1.18 Cyprus 2.06
40 39.31 Iraq 1.82
41 108.12 Philippines 1.81
42 18.95 Chile 1.77
43 67.53 United Kingdom 1.71
44 32.51 Peru 1.69
45 65.13 France 1.67
46 1.29 Timor-Leste 1.66
47 50.34 Colombia 1.61
48 2.49 Namibia 1.55
49 11.51 Bolivia 1.44
50 6.45 El Salvador 1.39
51 3.23 Mongolia 1.33
52 43.99 Ukraine 1.32
53 4.25 Panama 1.31
54 10.10 Jordan 1.27
55 17.37 Ecuador 1.25
56 14.65 Zimbabwe 1.20
57 10.23 Portugal 1.19
58 9.45 Belarus 1.16
59 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 1.14
60 2.35 Gambia 1.10
61 4.53 Mauritania 1.07
62 444.97 EU 1.06
63 1.92 Guinea-Bissau 1.04
64 4.04 Moldova 0.99
65 28.61 Nepal 0.98
66 8.77 Serbia 0.98
67 4.13 Croatia 0.97
68 4.98 West Bank and Gaza 0.95
69 2.88 Albania 0.84
70 19.36 Romania 0.84
71 60.55 Italy 0.828
72 6.42 Kyrgyzstan 0.779
73 16.49 Cambodia 0.728
74 4.97 Oman 0.718
75 6.86 Lebanon 0.708
76 16.30 Senegal 0.701
77 43.05 Algeria 0.684
78 18.63 Malawi 0.660
79 1.33 Estonia 0.647
80 12.63 Rwanda 0.634
81 163.05 Bangladesh 0.622
82 37.41 Canada 0.600
83 17.10 Netherlands 0.560
84 2.08 Slovenia 0.550
85 3.46 Uruguay 0.536
86 4.88 Ireland 0.527
87 52.57 Kenya 0.522
88 28.52 Venezuela 0.506
89 1.20 Mauritius 0.477
90 8.59 Switzerland 0.466
91 216.57 Pakistan 0.458
92 11.54 Belgium 0.409
93 15.44 Somalia 0.389
94 126.86 Japan 0.377
95 4.21 Kuwait 0.374
96 1366.42 India 0.361
97 5.77 Denmark 0.322
98 83.52 Germany 0.308
99 8.96 Austria 0.303
100 1.91 Latvia 0.300
101 5.53 Finland 0.258
102 17.07 Syria 0.251
103 10.04 Sweden 0.242
104 29.16 Yemen 0.240
105 12.77 Guinea 0.235
106 10.69 Czechia 0.227
107 9.77 United Arab Emirates 0.219
108 28.83 Ghana 0.213
109 8.08 Togo 0.212
110 30.37 Mozambique 0.212
111 31.83 Angola 0.211
112 32.98 Uzbekistan 0.204
113 2.13 Lesotho 0.202
114 10.74 Dominican Republic 0.173
115 17.86 Zambia 0.168
116 51.23 Korea, South 0.159
117 38.04 Afghanistan 0.150
118 44.27 Uganda 0.148
119 34.27 Saudi Arabia 0.129
120 200.96 Nigeria 0.127
Fascinating, thanks. I confess my first reaction was mild surprise that it was headed by a US state; I guess that after all these years as an internationalist I have now become a proper ’Mercan at last.
Heh. Well, it is always on one's mind, yes?-) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRgWBN8yt_E
The United States has fallen badly behind the rest of the rich world, including much of Europe. For many months countries like Italy and the UK were performing comparably.
No more.
From: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ymc191k5T37xgUlOuK3SBI9PQtZxm_aVwDnncICh85c/edit?usp=sharing
Rank State Cumulative Deaths/million State Cumulative Deaths State 7-Day Trailing Deaths/Million/Day
1 New Jersey 3024 California 65814 Mississippi 15.07
2 Mississippi 2809 Texas 56808 Louisiana 11.74
3 New York 2788 New York 54230 Florida 11.49
4 Louisiana 2659 Florida 43979 Arkansas 9.85
5 Massachusetts 2645 Pennsylvania 28214 Nevada 8.02
6 Rhode Island 2614 New Jersey 26864 Texas 7.20
7 Arizona 2581 Illinois 26360 South Carolina 6.88
8 Alabama 2493 Georgia 22641 Wyoming 6.59
9 Connecticut 2344 Michigan 21547 Alabama 6.47
10 South Dakota 2339 Ohio 20799 Kentucky 5.85
11 Arkansas 2290 Arizona 18787 Missouri 5.39
12 Pennsylvania 2204 Massachusetts 18229 Virgin Islands 5.33
13 Michigan 2158 Indiana 14419 Georgia 5.09
14 New Mexico 2152 North Carolina 14412 Oklahoma 4.91
15 Indiana 2142 Tennessee 13422 Tennessee 4.71
16 Georgia 2132 Louisiana 12359 Alaska 4.63
17 Nevada 2103 Alabama 12222 West Virginia 4.62
18 North Dakota 2089 Virginia 11810 Oregon 4.03
19 Illinois 2080 Missouri 10914 North Carolina 3.98
20 South Carolina 2051 South Carolina 10562 Puerto Rico 3.88
21 Florida 2048 Maryland 10004 Arizona 3.67
22 Iowa 1987 Wisconsin 8445 Montana 3.61
23 Oklahoma 1974 Mississippi 8361 Delaware 3.37
24 Tennessee 1965 Connecticut 8358 Indiana 3.31
25 Texas 1959 Minnesota 7898 Kansas 3.04
26 Delaware 1928 Oklahoma 7812 Washington 2.83
27 Kansas 1908 Kentucky 7741 Hawaii 2.52
28 Ohio 1779 Colorado 7129 Idaho 2.40
29 Kentucky 1733 Arkansas 6912 California 2.33
30 West Virginia 1715 Washington 6534 Virginia 2.26
31 Montana 1672 Nevada 6479 New Mexico 2.11
32 California 1666 Iowa 6268 Michigan 2.03
33 Maryland 1655 Kansas 5560 Utah 1.96
34 Missouri 1647 New Mexico 4512 Iowa 1.90
35 District of Columbia 1642 Oregon 3155 North Dakota 1.87
36 Wisconsin 1450 West Virginia 3074 Illinois 1.87
37 Wyoming 1424 Puerto Rico 2860 Wisconsin 1.77
38 Minnesota 1400 Rhode Island 2769 New Jersey 1.75
39 Virginia 1384 Utah 2628 Rhode Island 1.62
40 North Carolina 1374 Idaho 2331 South Dakota 1.61
41 Idaho 1304 Nebraska 2319 Pennsylvania 1.54
42 Colorado 1238 South Dakota 2069 New Hampshire 1.47
43 Nebraska 1199 Delaware 1877 Ohio 1.34
44 New Hampshire 1041 Montana 1787 Maryland 1.32
45 Guam 883 North Dakota 1592 New York 1.29
46 Washington 858 New Hampshire 1416 Colorado 1.27
47 Utah 820 District of Columbia 1159 Nebraska 1.26
48 Puerto Rico 762 Maine 930 Vermont 1.14
49 Oregon 748 Wyoming 803 Massachusetts 1.06
50 Maine 692 Hawaii 589 Minnesota 0.96
51 Alaska 591 Alaska 438 Connecticut 0.92
52 Virgin Islands 494 Vermont 275 District of Columbia 0.81
53 Vermont 441 Guam 145 Maine 0.64
54 Hawaii 416 Virgin Islands 53 American Samoa 0.00
55 Northern Mariana Islands 36 Northern Mariana Islands 2 Guam 0.00
56 American Samoa 0 American Samoa 0 Northern Mariana Islands 0.00
Lol since the pandemic began, including the earliest days when it was present only in a few, mostly very dense and urban areas, and treatment was still very poorly understood.
To compare NJ in early 2020 to FL in mid 2021 isn’t just apples and oranges, it’s peas and locomotives.
Which is why that includes the seven day trailing averages.
Since you mention New Jersey I’ll point out that it’s seven day trailing average, while better than say Florida (since you mention them too) is still worse than any of the countries besides the US in Kevin’s first chart.
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I posted a version of this a couple of days ago. I still don’t understand the discrepancy:
Can anyone explain this strange anomaly? There seems to be two sets of death data. If you go to the site Kevin uses:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths?country=USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA
you get a 7 day rolling average of over 1000 deaths per day. And it has been above 1000 per day for over a week. If you google:
"daily covid deaths us"
you get the same numbers. But if you go to other sites that are using the CDC numbers like this:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases
or https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ you get a 7 day rolling average that is still below 1000 deaths per day. I've seen both numbers for a while and can't explain it.
Google and ourworldindata.org say we've had many days in the past 2 weeks with 1400-1700 (or more) deaths recorded. For the same period, the CDC says 1000-1200 deaths. The numbers are around 300-500 different and have been for at least a few weeks. I'm very curious which is right and why there are 2 sets of death numbers.
I checked the total deaths and ourworldindata.org has 639,000 deaths and CDC has 636,000 deaths. Both are less than worldometers.info with 656,000 deaths (they include probables).
I don't know why no one else has noticed this. I recall a couple news outlets either last week or the week before talking about how we were now over 1000 deaths per day on average. So I was surprised when others said we are only at 900 or so. So Kevin isn't the only one looking at the higher number. I don't know if the google result I mentioned is using ourworldindata.org data or both places are getting the numbers from some common source.
OurWorldinData uses the John Hopkins database. The CDC uses reports from State and local authorities, with a bit of a lag for confirmation and revision.
That would explain it. I do sometime see the numbers on OurWorldinData get lowered by a small amount after a day or 2. But only a small amount.
I wonder which one is more accurate right now? OurWorldinData says the average is over 1300 per day and still going up. CDC says the average is just under 1000 and has only increased a comparatively small amount in the past week or more. One says things are getting even worse. The other says we've almost peaked.
World data is bloated. Pretty clear positivity, infections have peaked.
D_Ohrk_E1 linked below to a Miami Herald article showing how Florida is hiding deaths. Maybe a number of states are doing that and only John Hopkins is recording the real number? Who knows.
But, as I explained below, it is silly to say that this is hiding anything . They are still showing every one of the deaths that are reported, just distributing them back to the date of death as they should be.
What is stupid and misleading is ever showing deaths by report date as if that gives you any valid info. It does not and can lead to serious errors in perception that can cause poor policy ( like unfounded complacency at start of delta wave).
It seems the meme is that this is hiding the " true " number of deaths happening now. But it is not because we just simply do not know that and will not even begin to have a decent estimate for three weeks or so.
We just have to accept that we do not get to know everything right away.
If the cdc is aggregating different numbers based on different methodologies, then that is on them. Or partially on the states ( the majority) that are showing it the stupid way. No blame should be given to states that are finally doing it the right way.
Note this is same issue that came up when sweden was reporting by date of death and almost alone In doing so. Well sweden was right then and fla and the other states doing it this way ( like ny) are right now.
Its not so much that Florida is doing is differently its the fact that the states should NOT have any ability to change it in the first place
One of the reasons Israel and the UK are doing better and have better data is national health insurance
Do we need ot go that far? Thats a political choice
But reporting numbers that affect the nation as a whole should be standardized throughout the country with no changes from state to state
Speaking of health in various countries, Algeria just used up its last stockpile of leaded gasoline last month, the last country to ban its usage.
https://www.npr.org/2021/08/30/1031429212/the-world-has-finally-stopped-using-leaded-gasoline-algeria-used-the-last-stockp
Ironic how the West's lust for oil by itself (not counting the wars and weapons) helped cause the high crime and terrorist rates in oil countries.
Now we're just dealing with a different kind of lead poisoning:
https://www.wbez.org/stories/at-summers-end-chicago-murders-outpacing-any-year-in-a-quarter-century/5385cdb4-ee0e-4d10-bf38-4e85daa98fa0
I'm struck by the fact that the young uninsured group has the largest percentage of people who definitely won't get vaccinated. I would be interested to know how that shakes out by state and party affiliation, since some states have robust insurance options for lower-income people. I also wonder if this speaks to the disengagement of young people in general to either health concerns (feeling relatively immortal), disconnect with current events (too busy living lives) or being seriously misinformed (too much Facebook can be a danger). I would invoke selfishness too, but I think that runs across all demographic groups.
Or Coronavirus's historically don't bother them much. Look at 1889-94.
I remember when I was young and generally thought I was immortal.
I am immortal, it's death that has gotten small.
Yes Ms Desmond.
Correlation with uninsured is easy to explain.
What basically is insurance ? Basically paying a 100% certain cost now to avoid a small possibly of a much much larger cost later ( medical bills if you get sick).
And, at least for someone who does accept that vaccines do work to prevent illness and death , and just from a selfish perspective, that is the same sort of decision here as for insurance.
It is a weighing of probabilities and accepting a certain small cost now ( vaccine side effects, the time to get vaccinated, having to get a shot) to avoid that very small chance of catching covid and getting seriously ill.
Many people just do poorly with that sort of decision. They get " tunnel vision " - same as I described with the poor decisions in pulling out of Afghanistan. They think the far most likely case is that I will not get seriously ill from covid and make their decision only on that most likely scenario.
Those type of personalities who are more likely to take the chance and not be insured are those who, based on same logic, will not get vaccinated.
Sorry, but 86% of Democrats don't have a shot. Please stop posting misleading data. That entire subset is pretty bad Kaiser. At least try.
Do you have better data? If so, why don't you share it with us?
Then by all means point us at the better data. This site does permit links …
Can we overlay Fox News viewership? Look for possible collocations.
Correlations.
As usual, spades has a good point but spoils it with hyperbole.
Absolutely true that polls will certainly exaggerate vaccinations for democrats or people who are not vaccinated but sort of embarrassed that they are not. Some will say they are vaccinated when they are not or will say they will be getting vaccinated asap.
If all those who said they were going to get vaccinated asap in polls months ago really did , the vaccination rates would have spiked way up and they just did not go up that much. Much of that asap group is fake.
For some conservative Republicans who are vaccinated, they feel sometimes like they have betrayed the tribe ( unvaccinated democrats also) and some will lie to pollsters about that ( and to their friends and family) .
I personally know some conservatives who are vaccinated but will not tell many of their friends and family ( including two nephews who did so contrary to the strong wishes of their mom). I am pledged to secrecy their and would not want to say so anyway because I helped convince them and my sister ( their mom) would be really upset if she knew.
And yes blacks are lower than the polls show.
But also I think it is almost certainly true that Republicans are less vaccinated than democrats, especially if you compare with same racial groups.
But not to the extent the polls show .
>> spades has a good point <<
Honestly I didn’t know you could use those words in the same sentence.
Here are some colormaps about FOX News viewership from a couple of years ago. In particular the map for Republican viewers aligns quite well with the map Kevin posted about new COVID cases.
https://morningconsult.com/2019/12/08/fox-news-upper-hand-next-year-the-countrys-eyeballs-down-to-districts/
My guess is fox news viewership correlates with being vaccinated to a small extent if you controlled for other variables. Fox news viewership now correlates strongly with simply being a republican and being rural and NOT being in the extreme pro trump or anti Vax. Those viewers have now largely gone to places like Newsmax.
If you control for being republican and rural, I think fox news viewership will correlate slightly with being vaccinated.
I bet all three correlate together pretty well.
Yes, that is the point somewhat. If you do a multivariate regression, I am saying I guess that fox news viewing would have a negative correlation.
I am not sure if you understand what I am saying because and were saying something that is supporting what I was saying or were not understanding and thinking your statement was contradicting mine.
Why do we "care" whether or not Republicans get vaccinated? Sure, their recalcitrance means that the pandemic lasts longer and the Curse has the opportunity to mutate further. But it seems that's what they want; they're willing to die to "Own the Libs" and embarrass Biden.
WE SHOULD BE APPLAUDING THEM!!!!! This is finally improving the human genome, after a century of serious debilitation.
Why do you care if Democrats get vaccinated? Real raw stats have Republicans higher vaxxed than Democrats. It's not a cherry picker poll either. It's CDC data.
Kaiser is clearly doing propa.
Then link to these real stats.
Health officer inspecting people for smallpox vaccination scars, Newark, New Jersey, 1931,
https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/YgAdTwoOXL0XmXWXY3GtA4squz4=/47x0:2453x1353/1600x900/media/img/mt/2021/03/GettyImages_515167932/original.jpg
and the guy on the right is going to beat them to a pulp if they aren't vaccinated.
Freaky the guy holding out his arm looks a bit like my grandfather who in 1931 was living just outside of Newark, NJ. Hmmmm.
Florida's been hiding deaths in the last few weeks: https://bityl.co/8TyA
At least 21K students in Florida have tested positive: https://bityl.co/8TyB
Maybe this explains why the CDC numbers are so much lower than the John Hopkins numbers. Maybe a number of states are hiding deaths this way.
That article is overblown. Florida is still reporting the numbers by reporting date too . And the article does mention that 12 states do it by date of death, including new york.
They are not really hiding deaths by reporting them in this way. Note the total deaths will still be the same, just redistributed back correctly to date of death. And what would really be the point of "hiding it" that way?
Clearly showing by date of death is superior. And the point is we just do not know how many people are dying today of covid and will not know until all the reports come in . Pretending that showing deaths by report date is actually showing us something as to what is happening today is what is dumb.
So, if anything, what is being "hidden" is the dumb misleading statistic .
And note that doing it by reporting date tends to actually hide the extent of the spike in deaths during a wave . First there is not a standard lag from death date to report date. Although most come in within 3 weeks, some will take months. And when deaths are high they get busy and the lag increases.
The result is that doing it by report date instead of death date makes the curve look flatter than reality ( at least on the downward side) and more up and down. And this led to misperceptions.
Seen now correctly by date of death, the winter wave spiked up sharper than it looked based on reporting date and tailed off much quicker.
And where reporting date hurt was the misperception at the start of the delta wave when cases started to increase rapidly but from a low number but deaths were not increasing near as much even with a standard three week lag. This was going to be a deathless wave ! But it has not been.
What was happening at the start was that actual deaths were very low and a good part of the reported deaths were from death dates from months before in the winter wave. Even if few deaths have a long month lag till report, when you have a huge number of deaths in January and February, that small % age can overwhelm more timely two week reporting of a much smaller number.
So actual deaths were rapidly increasing but from a very low base but that was disguised by a drop off over time in the very delayed reports from winter. Which led to complacency.
Myself I think every state should " hide " the data and just not show numbers by report date at all. All that is " hiding " is a deceptive impression that you have any idea of number of deaths today.
If you want a better idea of what is happening today, look at hospitalization and ice numbers.
Then, go look at new hospitalizations! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Florida's hospitalizations have gone down only a little bit, matching fairly closely to stalled new infections, but deaths have mysteriously plummeted by a lot.
The method of reporting deaths isn't as much of a problem as the sudden change; that ends up creating a short-term misalignment with what's actually happening and on the back end will smooth out deaths at an elevated rate.
I think you might be misunderstanding this. Florida has changed the reporting for their official count for ALL days retroactively to date of death. They do not show number based on reported date for past days and death date for current and future. That would make no sense and would mean that some deaths never get included. I think this is what you are referring to as a short term misalignment.
But that is not happening. The death numbers are lower for recent days simply because the numbers for recent days are not yet complete. Actually likely the numbers for any day within the last six months may not be complete yet - deaths from March may still be dribbling in occasionally.
Generally, in most places, the large majority of deaths are reported within 3 weeks so data before that is good enough to use with caution. But even there you have to realize that a death number from a date four weeks earlier will go up eventually by more than a date six weeks ago.
This is not really a short term issue or a misalignment . That will persist forever. And it is a lack of info , not a misalignment.
You cannot have the data align perfectly across dates where you do not have the data
What I would prefer is if florida simply did not report in the same table any death date within 3 weeks- just leave those dates blank. Because, in reality, any numbers we have re deaths are too incomplete to be useful yet .
If you want to guess at the way actual deaths changed one week ago , look at hospitalizations 2 and 3 weeks ago. That is the best thing we have to estimate those recent dates.
Definitely a good way to stay off the top of moving 7-day average lists (past and present).
Past since you didn't report those deaths then, and present because you're now assigning those deaths back then (who's paying all that much attention to older 7-day averages?).
We should never have been paying much attention to reporting of deaths as if it was an indicator of who is dying now.
Note that, even if fla did not give directly the number of new reported deaths ( which they still do) it would be super easy to calculate. Just subtract cumulative deaths from yesterday cumulative deaths.
If anyone still wants to report the 7 day average of Florida reported deaths , can easily do so. If any site is taking one stares numbers re reported deaths and comparing them with an incomplete number of deaths by date of death, that is on the compiler of that info, not the state who reports what they need to do it right.
Of course , so many sites are comparing countries too when each nation may have different standards for counting deaths. The us has had a relatively tougher looser standard than many nations in Europe so our numbers should be discounted a little in comparison.
And showing deaths for us and Europe in comparison with someplace like India that just not have the resources to count them is just silly . And China whose ridiculously low official numbers are obviously fake .
Don't say "delta" when you can say "difference" and many more people will understand you, especially when the Delta variant is a component of this story.
Also it's garbage hedge fund language, like "content" and "consumer experience".
It's not garbage hedge fund language, it's basic math, but I agree could be confusing with a Delta variant (I wasn't confused, it was clear enough in context).
Trump famously said something along the lines of "if you don't test for it, it doesn't exist". Using Covid deaths instead of all deaths is an example of failing to learn from that comment and also an example of cherry picking.
Ourworlddata has statistics on excessive deaths during the Covid era and all cause deaths. This data shows that Covid vaccinations are correlated with increased and more all cause mortality (this is not a perfect correlation).
Here is the rank of the 7 countries by Covid vaccination status (highest first)
Canada, UK, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, US.
Here is the rank for the last 7 days of Covid deaths.
US, UK, France, Italy, Canada, Germany, Sweden.
What is interesting is there isn't a correlation here between Covid vaccination and Covid deaths. This isn't very surprising considering in the Pizer study the Vaccine group had a higher mortality rate compared to the placebo group.
Republican and rural areas in America have around 4-5 year shorter lifespans compared to Urban and Blue areas. Republican states have more obesity, tobacco use, poverty, worse health care, and are known for being areas where seniors retire to. They should all else equal be expected to have more deaths due to these factors. One trying to see if a policy reduces or increases deaths it would be better to attempt to adjust for some of these factors.
chicken and egg....
Outbreaks trigger vaccinations.
Vaccinations means rules get looser.
Unvaccinated act like idiots.
Another outbreak ensues
So it's OK to report deaths due to COVID that happened 21 + days ago?
What if that case were a break through case?
What if the death happened at home to a person living by themselves - wouldn't we need to know their vaccination status sooner than 21+ days out?
Oh and keep in mind Florida ranks as the 12th WORST for COVID testing
Now they are delaying COVID deaths because no one look back
But thats OK. If the S AFrican variant proves to be 2X as transmissable as Delta AND Evades most antibody treatments? Florida will be dead and gone before they have a chance to report an outbreak
They are behind on testing their hospitals are full and their testing labs are over whelmed - so why not delay death reporting?
And do I think that reporting by death for 3 weeks prior is decent . Yes. But note I am not saying that 3 weeks is an OK delay in reporting a covid death. I am not judging that. I do not have the expertise in hospital or health department procedures to determine whether or not that is reasonable.
But it seems to be when generally the large majority of deaths have been reported and does seem to be accepted as satisfactory by the experts so I assume it is fair.
But my point is not as to how soon they should report but, given when they do , when are they data complete enough to be useful to show.
I would say reporting of even data three weeks ago re date of death should include a caveat that it is preliminary and subject to change ( fla site does that ) but also would like a statement that the numbers are expected to INCREASE somewhat but more for the recent dates ( fla site does not say that ). The expected pattern of future change is not random.
There have been some covid skeptic sites that have used date of death reporting improperly. At first it was really stupid- just looking at the recent data including most recent dates and saying wow cases are going down. Which is what i think most of you are thinking will be done . Note many places have been reporting by date of death- this information has been available - the only change re fla is which set they are using for the official reports .
But those sites pretty much have stopped that nonsense because, after a couple of times reporting " see its over " and it was not when the final data filled in those dates, they understood they just misunderstood.
But now some are doing a more subtle error . They are showing just data 3 weeks old and admitting that more recent data is too incomplete to use that way..but then just assuming that any data older is perfect to use for trends . But it is still biased slightly to show a drop. So you cannot do that. I.e. we see that deaths by date of death were flat from 4 weeks to 3 weeks ago - we had hit the peak. But that actually indicates they went up a bit.
First where are you getting that florida is 12th worst in testing. At least on worldometers they rank #22 best out of 51 states plus dc which would be 30th worst. Based on tests per capita and not sure what other measure you could mean . I could see a different site having slightly different data but nowhere that much..
Incidentally, the different testing rates of different states is much bigger than you might expect. A range of 9 to 1. And not the clean red/blue state divide you might expect. Delaware #47 and Alaska #3. NY and NJ very similar patterns and politics but ny tested way more. Very little discussion of this factor .
Note someone earlier said the us testing has been poor compared to other nations. Not really. Worse than some like uk and Israeli but we have tested more than Canada.
Is it OK to not report deaths for over 3 weeks . You might be expecting too much if you want it that much sooner. They have to determine cause of death and go through a process that can take a while. And gets delayed more when cases get heavy and hospitals are concentrating on you know saving lives instead of the paperwork.
But that is not relevant to this discussion. The issue is not whether the death reporting should be expedited but how to show the data based on what we do get.
And you bring up what about if there is new transmissible variant. But your example would be more relevant re rapid reporting of new CASES, not deaths. That is what will show that the virus is spreading fast. If I had to prioritize, priority should be to getting test reporting faster before death.
And nobody has accused florida of being particularly slow in reporting. In fact, I understand that they have been above average in not having as much of a delay. In general, the biggest problems with big delays in death reports or the more rural areas like states in the Great plains . And la county was real bad for a while last year ( really so on positive tests) but seems one of the better places now.
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rational
You excuses for FLoridas change mid stream are specious at best and your "what aboutism" is pathetic in the face of 600,000+ deaths
There should be no difference in how numbers are reported from state to state
CV19 knows no geographic boundary nor political affiliation
This is a disease with international implications and our failure to act in a cohesive manor to address this is causing our scientists to be behind the proverbial 8 ball.
Get the information out quickly. Delta took over the U.S. in 60 days - you are willing to allow Florida to be behind by 21+ days already in reporting deaths attributed to CV19 along with other states
NO ONE SHOULD DIFFER HERE
We are done discussing this
I notice you gave no support for your , I think, simply incorrect I think, assertion that florida is 12th worst in testing. Please say where you got this from. If you cannot , hard to not think you just made it up because you assumed something.
I agree there should all be doing it the same way . But they should all be doing it the way florida is doing it , which is the right way. And notice the article states that 12 states report this way, including new york . So why is it suddenly an issue now when florida joins them? Note I have not independently verified that but would be surprised if it was untrue in an article critical of Florida.
Where is your outrage about new york then?
And I agree that the lack of common standards across states is a problem. But who caused that. The states reporting a dumb way or the fewer ones reporting a smart way?
I also agree I would like quicker reporting of deaths . But, not being in the health industry, it is hard for me to judge what is too slow. And sometimes allowing more time improves the quality.
And you still seem to not be understanding that nothing here says florida is delaying the time they report the death by this policy. They are still reporting the death the same day they will have before. It is just that, when they do report it , they assign it to the correct date of death. As I said, if you want the old way of what are the reported deaths today just subtract last day cumulative from today .
And florida is not delaying their reporting more than other states. They are just actually showing you how long the death report was delayed from date of death. Other states are still hiding that.
You are right that no one should differ here. All should agree with me because I am right 😀