This chart has become so depressing I can hardly stand to post it anymore. Our death rate from COVID-19 is nearly three times higher than the next highest country and more than double that of Europe as a whole. Ditto for our case rate. And both are rising at a much faster rate than in Europe.
Is this entirely due to our lower vaccination rate? Or our mask idiocy? Or something else? If you look at excess mortality instead of official COVID data, the US looks fairly normal compared to Europe. Is this all just an artifact of different countries accounting for deaths differently?
If I had to take a random guess, it would be that the people getting sick of Covid in the US are generally sicker people overall compared to the average European. Americans overall, and poorer Americans in particular, are a lot less healthy than citizens of other advanced economies.
We're missing a number to support, or not support, that hypothesis. If you are correct, the US should have a higher rate of deaths per million cases, not just a higher death rate per million population. My impression is that the US has more deaths because it has more cases per capita, not because it has a higher fatality rate per case, but that's just an impression and needs numbers for case fatality rates.
I think you might be on to something. The way the US healthcare system functions or rather does not function means folks avoid seeking healthcare to avoid $$$ either due to lack of insurance or to avoid co-pays and surprise billings. So it would make sense to me that folks who get sick with COVID symptoms but no so sick as to need to go to the hospital might not bother getting tested.
Yep, this is it. We have more people with diabetes, more people with heart disease, and so on with extra death-from-COVID risk factors.
Add to that the antivax mania and people determined to win a Herman Cain Award, and well...
Antivax mania???? Nope.
Antivax stupidity? Yup!
Also more obesity, which seems to be an indicator for severe Covid.
If I had to take a random guess, it would be that the people getting sick of Covid in the US are generally sicker people overall.
The datapoint Kevin mentions regarding similar excess mortality between the US and Europe wouldn't suggest that. What it would suggest is that Europe is undercounting covid deaths.
A North American chart raises more questions and theories. The US rate follows nicely with the Mexico rate a lot of the time.
I'm an American living in Germany who just got back from the US. Maybe there is something in the way that deaths are counted, but more likely it is a sum of little things.
To begin with, the population in Germany should be more vulnerable and more at risk. People are on average about a decade older than in the US and much more closely packed together. Also-- public transport. There's a big difference in exposure risk when you ride a subway vs. drive your own car.
Against those factors, Germany has a higher vaccination rate than the US as a whole and still requires masks inside. It was shocking to go into grocery stores (near NYC) and see almost everyone maskless. Also--the public health system is designed for the general population and-- in my experience--people are more inclined to stay home when they are sick.
It may be that the deaths in the US are the result of something other than indifference, but I don't know what it is.
Not to add weight to the down mood, but I strongly suspect the death toll in the United States is to some degree undercounted, primarily from political sentiments in some areas to downplay Covid deaths and instead list some other disease or disorder as the primary cause of death.
Remember the recent story about a coroner who wasn't listing Covid as the cause of death when the family wanted something else listed? Yeah, I think there's more of that in some areas, plus Republican doctors, coroners, and others who one their own choose to downplay this deadly disease.
Uh... "American Exceptionalism"?
Excess mortality relies on total death reports, which may have a lag of many months in case of other causes. Presumably covid deaths get reported immediately.
Excess mortality may not give the full covid death toll if many old and sick people die from it, which of course is what tends to happen. Their deaths may be advanced by a few months but end up in the same year. The accounting for this may be complicated.
I was going to say the same thing. The excess mortality data we have now is from a time when we DIDN'T look very different from Europe. In a few months, the stats will catch up to today's reality.
I was going to say the same thing. The excess mortality data we have now is from a time when we DIDN'T look very different from Europe.
Well, that occurred to me, as well, but that would mean Kevin is comparing like to unlike in terms of time scales. Maybe the excess mortality he mentions is from April, too, just like covid death numbers?
Skeptonomist, that’s an interesting view of reporting. My guess is exactly the reverse.
I suspect that with few exceptions, deaths are reported immediately. OTOH, I expect that Covid deaths are frequently misreported as to cause-of-death, and only later (if at all) corrected.
Ken,
Not positive but I think that is not true. I understand a death is not reported until there is a cause of death. So I think that a death will be recorded at the same time for covid reporting and excess deaths.
But should not be an issue really and pretty sure Ddoubleday is wrong. The large bulk of covid deaths are reported within 3 weeks although there are some stragglers that can come in months late. And clearly the recent uptick in deaths is due to the recent delta wave and not reporting from prior periods when our cases were close to Europe.
This CDC article explicitly discusses delays in reporting for all causes of deaths, which may be as much as 8 weeks. This is a known issue with excess mortality reports:
"First, because of reporting lags, estimated numbers of deaths in the most recent weeks are likely underestimated and might increase as more data become available.¶ "
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7015a4.htm
This really shouldn’t surprise anyone. Covid deaths, infant mortality, gun deaths. America is a failed state when it comes to public health. For four decades we have been patterning ourselves after a classic Third World plutocracy with no middle class. It’s working.
I don’t know anyone who has died or even been in hospital once vaccines became available. It’s certainly not depressing to hear about republicans and ignorant fools getting sick.
I assume you mean those who are vaccinated . Obviously having vaccines available does not help those who do not get vaccinated.
Or does this indicate that you simply do not know anyone who has not been vaccinated, which might explain your total ignorance as to how they think .
I do know of ( not directly friend of my brother) someone who was vaccinated, caught covid 3 months after full vaccination ( when it is supposed to be at its peak immunity) and was hospitalized and the condition became critical. OK now.
And he is in early 40s and very healthy otherwise. No conditions that could explain this. Very very rare in my understanding that a young healthy vaccinated person would get so ill from covid .
One doctor speculated that possible some other virus or condition they did not notice could have caused the serious illness and not covid ( which would mean if he died it would have been recorded as a covid death incorrectly).
But I also wonder for the very rare serious illness in vaccine breakthrough cases whether they were really vaccinated at all. Maybe they messed up the vaccination somehow when he was presumably vaccinated. Of course there is going to be some human error.
The original clinical trials told us from the getgo that the vaccines don't prevent infections in all cases, and that was before Delta. And the results with respect to serious illness and death were bound to be non-repeatable in real world conditions with vastly larger sample sizes. So, sure, such cases thankfully are rare. But, even influenza sometimes kills people in their prime...
Fewer masks, less vaccination, and higher mobility. Especially in the south. My university, one of the largest in the nation, follows its political masters and has in person mask optional crowded classes. The provost sends out threats if we troublesome faculty try to minimize transmission.
Well, I hope they're giving out free horse pills.
I’ll have to get some for my class😜. Though, actually some candy for the masked might be a good idea.
On the Swedish curve in Kevin's diagram: It looks like the death rate has been plummeting lately. However, there were some technical updating of the databases during the last week, so no deaths have been reported during this time. The Public Health Agency says that they don't see any worrying tendencies though (they can apparently see the numbers anyway...?), but there will for sure be a larger number than normal when things come up running again and all deaths for a week or so are reported all at once.
For a while now there have been between zero and a handful deaths per day in Sweden. Cases are increasing, ICU admissions increase very slightly and deaths even more so, but I guess numbers will still go up a bit. Our vaccination rate is (unsurprisingly) high, but there are still pockets of unvaccinated people.
Cases increasing is irrelevant.
Florida's death rate is increasing mainly due to low vit d blacks getting sick at a higher rate despite only having 15% of the cases(which matches population %%%). The far higher total is Cuban Americans which have driven up Hispanic share of total cases to 42%, despite being 27% of the total population. Basically unvaccinated wood ready for burning. Looks like it's looking forest as cases go down.
Perhaps there is a correlation between covid death rates and the amount of horse dewormer sold?
It is primarily due to sheer outright stupidity among a larger percentage of the population, many of our so called political leaders, and the right wing media who applify this lunacy. I only feel sorry for the children of these people who are endangering their lives and heath.
From: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vPxCBqCXsRvjR3PdLn0vXdJQF3wao-Ry5bS3Fe_9Qxs/edit?usp=sharing figures from beyond Kevin's chosen countries.
Rank Population (Millions) Country Deaths/Day/Million 7-dav Avg
1 4.00 Georgia 19.84
2 1.81 Kosovo 13.57
3 2.08 North Macedonia 13.44
4 31.95 Malaysia 9.53
5 21.32 Sri Lanka 9.14
6 18.55 Kazakhstan 8.29
7 1.15 Eswatini 7.96
8 7.00 Bulgaria 7.84
9 82.91 Iran 7.22
10 11.33 Cuba 7.05
11 2.95 Jamaica 5.57
12 127.58 Mexico 5.57
13 11.69 Tunisia 5.47
14 145.87 Russia 5.33
15 1.39 Trinidad and Tobago 5.33
16 329.06 US 4.74
17 58.56 South Africa 4.45
18 2.96 Armenia 4.25
19 10.47 Greece 4.16
20 10.05 Azerbaijan 4.11
21 2.30 Botswana 3.91
22 5.05 Costa Rica 3.88
23 8.52 Israel 3.62
24 44.78 Argentina 3.60
25 69.04 Thailand 3.54
26 2.76 Lithuania 3.52
27 96.46 Vietnam 3.44
28 7.04 Paraguay 3.37
29 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.33
30 17.58 Guatemala 3.31
31 6.78 Libya 2.93
32 211.05 Brazil 2.92
33 9.75 Honduras 2.80
34 36.47 Morocco 2.49
35 46.74 Spain 2.43
36 2.49 Namibia 2.29
37 270.63 Indonesia 2.08
38 1.29 Timor-Leste 1.99
39 1.18 Cyprus 1.94
40 54.05 Burma 1.87
41 8.77 Serbia 1.84
42 65.13 France 1.70
43 67.53 United Kingdom 1.68
44 32.51 Peru 1.64
45 3.23 Mongolia 1.64
46 4.98 West Bank and Gaza 1.58
47 4.13 Croatia 1.56
48 18.95 Chile 1.55
49 108.12 Philippines 1.49
50 4.04 Moldova 1.48
51 39.31 Iraq 1.46
52 6.45 El Salvador 1.39
53 83.43 Turkey 1.35
54 4.25 Panama 1.35
55 50.34 Colombia 1.33
56 1.33 Estonia 1.29
57 43.99 Ukraine 1.26
58 11.51 Bolivia 1.25
59 10.10 Jordan 1.24
60 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 1.21
61 9.45 Belarus 1.21
62 6.86 Lebanon 1.19
63 19.36 Romania 1.19
64 444.97 EU 1.14
65 2.88 Albania 1.14
66 10.23 Portugal 1.08
67 60.55 Italy 1.00
68 17.37 Ecuador 0.98
69 1.91 Latvia 0.90
70 4.53 Mauritania 0.88
71 14.65 Zimbabwe 0.790
72 8.59 Switzerland 0.765
73 6.42 Kyrgyzstan 0.713
74 43.05 Algeria 0.700
75 16.49 Cambodia 0.659
76 28.61 Nepal 0.619
77 4.88 Ireland 0.585
78 17.10 Netherlands 0.568
79 2.35 Gambia 0.548
80 4.97 Oman 0.517
81 12.63 Rwanda 0.509
82 2.08 Slovenia 0.481
83 163.05 Bangladesh 0.480
84 1.20 Mauritius 0.477
85 16.30 Senegal 0.473
86 11.54 Belgium 0.458
87 37.41 Canada 0.451
88 126.86 Japan 0.450
89 28.52 Venezuela 0.441
90 1.36 Equatorial Guinea 0.421
91 5.53 Finland 0.387
92 18.63 Malawi 0.376
93 216.57 Pakistan 0.371
94 83.52 Germany 0.366
95 15.44 Somalia 0.361
96 31.83 Angola 0.310
97 29.16 Yemen 0.304
98 17.07 Syria 0.301
99 1.92 Guinea-Bissau 0.297
100 12.77 Guinea 0.291
101 8.08 Togo 0.283
102 34.27 Saudi Arabia 0.279
103 1366.42 India 0.266
104 5.77 Denmark 0.248
105 4.21 Kuwait 0.238
106 25.20 Australia 0.232
107 28.83 Ghana 0.218
108 5.38 Norway 0.212
109 52.57 Kenya 0.207
110 3.46 Uruguay 0.206
111 8.96 Austria 0.191
112 32.98 Uzbekistan 0.182
113 44.27 Uganda 0.174
114 17.86 Zambia 0.160
115 112.08 Ethiopia 0.152
116 37.89 Poland 0.147
117 2.17 Gabon 0.132
118 30.37 Mozambique 0.127
119 51.23 Korea, South 0.120
120 9.77 United Arab Emirates 0.117
Those interested in cumulative can look at the tab "Top70Cumulative" in that spreadsheet.
Thanks.
We're talking about third booster--yet many places have little to no vaccines....and some are taking horse pills.
At 10/million deaths per day, that's 0.01% of the population per day. Over 100 days, that's 1%. This pandemic has been going on for over a year--though death rates have varied, we're looking at 1-2% of the world's population dying of Covid over the course of a year. And that is still going on in the US despite all the vaccine we have access too.
One side effect of our current wave--shortage of gas tanks (cylinders). They're being repurposed to supply O2 and being shipped to hospitals in hard hit areas.
10 per million is 0.001%, so you have some figures off by ten there.
Short answer, "Pull your mask up Shorty"
According to the CDC we're at 74.8% vaccinated (adults, at least 1 dose; 62.3% total population). That's up ca. 4.5% in a month. Nine states plus PR are over 70% vaccinated (single dose) for their total population. About 30 states have 70% of their adults vaccinated (first dose), and vaccination rates have gone up with this outbreak. There have also been mandatory vaccination programs kicking in for teachers, universities, federal government, etc. But they won't affect the numbers for another month or so. Pfizer vax needs two doses to show a strong effect. Moderna is pretty good after one and J&J only requires one.
This wave is starting to wane in MO, but cases dropping slowly (not counting recent small up tick). Hospitalizations my be starting to drop--but deaths are still steady.
Colleges have mostly started. And the moving around the country should be showing up in numbers now. Those that require vaccinations are helping to minimize the spread. Those that don't are aggravating the problem. As for grade/high schools....the sooner those eligible for a vaccine get it, the better. It's very important for the studies be done and the data collected and evaluated, but I hope full approval for multiple vaccinations comes through soon.
The problem we have, and Kevin exemplified this in his discussion of the masking study. Masks are mainly meant to prevent you from spreading the virus, not to stop you from getting Covid (unless using properly fitted N95's). The conclusion Kevin drew was that the 50+ cohort were protected when wearing masks, so no need for others to wear them. The counter argument is simply other groups didn't follow masking rules consistently. A corollary is that other groups were more likely to wear masks around more vulnerable (older) people, thus protecting the older cohort. The real take home message was that masks work. People want/gravitate to simple answers--which are invariably off. Nuance is hard.
Europe is hardly masked. Your point is dead. It's the colored people. Pure and simple. Sans yellow of course.
This site permits links. Post some in support of your assertions…
This site also permits ignoring trolls. Until Kevin upgrades his comment software, I suggest we all follow such a strategy. Responding to him/her/they/it is what him/her/they/it is looking for.
Quoting Brandon Scott? A fellow Balmer resident?
Share of total population partially or fully vaccinated in Europe, in map form,
https://i.redd.it/tfam1wytnql71.png
[tried to post this with the thread it came from but WordPress isn't having it for some reason]
Thanks. For reference, US is at 62.3% (total population, at least 1 dose), so behind basically all of western Europe (and Canada, though not on that map).
Not by that much. That explains nothing.
Obesity is a significant risk factor for death from corvid. Perhaps because the US has the highest obesity rate of any large developed country, this contributes significantly to a higher mortality rate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_obesity_rate
Re the possible explanations here, there are a number of obvious possibilities nobody has mentioned.
I think there are two things to explain. One is why our fatality rate per recorded case has been higher than many countries recently. And it really has been , especially compared to the uk. It is possible that some of this is due to reporting and definition. If the us has policies that catch a higher share of covid deaths as compared to share of actual covid cases, then our death per recorded case will be higher even if actual fatality rate per infection is the same.
And that could be the case if we are testing less . Less testing a lower share of actual infections get recorded. But almost every person seriously ill from covid will still get tested and so will not miss covid deaths.
But the us, contrary to what many here keep saying, is testing MORE than most of the countries on the list. Just look up the statistics. Except the uk - they are testing more than anyone. So this could be a factor for uk, but should be opposite for others.
But what things might cause the us to have a higher fatality rate per actual infection?
1) as mentioned, the us might be less healthy- more obesity, diabetes, etc. But not much of a difference with uk.
2) vaccination total % ages . Yes a factor but not a huge one. The differences are not that big.
3) how vaccinations are distributed. This is HUGE and the biggest thing . Young unvaccinated rarely die of covid and same for vaccinated elderly. The bulk of deaths comes from unvaccinated elderly.
And this is where there is a bigger difference in the us as compared to the other countries. And the key is really not total % vaccinated, it is percent unvaccinated. If one place vaccinated 80% of elderly and another 90%, sounds like not a big difference. But it leaves twice the number unvaccinated .
Other countries focused more on elderly than we did ( if you count those between 50 and 65 as somewhat old) and we have more vaccine resistance in the old .
One other factor you did not include is the healthcare system in the US. Unlike other nations where healthcare is not such an economic burden, you are bound to have more people that would try to "weather the storm" at home and would only seek medical attention once the symptoms have progressed enough to make the prognosis much worse for the patient, thus leading to an increased death rate.
@ Rational thought
In the previous KD story about mask study you posted this about Mu:
{snip}
'Yes, if you mean we are " underreporting" the absolute numbers of the strain as they are not sequencing all of them. But in percentage of cases, which is all they are trying to measure, you will have sampling error just like in a political poll. But the percentage should not be that far off from reality and the bias can be either low or high. And they are sequencing enough to have a large sample at least in big states.
What would be something to watch is if you see it starting to increase as a %age, even if in low numbers. If ca is finding it in .2% one week and. 5% next week, that is troubling even if the numbers are still real low in absolute terms. That is especially so if the relative %age increase is not slowing. If it is, say going from. 2% to .5% then to .8%, 1.0%, etc. That could indicate it has some small niche where it has am advantage and will slow down once it exhausts that niche.
Have you seen anything showing how fast the relative %ages are changing yet? I did see one thing from uk seeming to show that mu % age was not growing at all.
{snip}
Here's the latest from Newsweeek:
https://www.newsweek.com/mu-covid-variant-vaccine-resistant-most-prevelant-us-states-alaska-1626322
{snip}
The Mu variant of COVID is particularly prevalent in certain states of the U.S. and at least one case has been detected in every state except one.
As of September 4, the state with the highest proportion of Mu cases was Alaska, where 146 Mu cases have been sequenced, according to the Outbreak.info variant tracker. This translates to a prevalence of about four percent.
The Virgin Islands follow, with six cases sequenced—a prevalence of about three percent.
The data site also showed that the only state Mu had not been sequenced in was Nebraska.
{snip}
NOW this only indicates the sequences NOT total cases.
But in a month Alaska went from 0 to 146.
When I went to the Alaska health department website they ADMITTED that they could not determine EXACTLY how many Mu cases there were due to this being a new variant and it is posing some titration problems for the labs.
WE went from "Oh its Mu its just in Peru" to now having 49 states with cases in the course of a week. In Peru and Columbia Mu represents more cases than Delta IIRC.
If Faucci and WHO Are correct and this variant along with the South African variant EVADE antibody protection from monoclonal treatment, vaccine, and natural antibodies from those having previous CV cases, then we have a problem because it demolishes the herd immunity argument UNLESS we can get everyone to either be
A - vaccinated all at once
B - sick all at once
Compared to 1917-1918 we are far ahead of them medicine wise. The "spanish flu" raced through the world wide population in 3 waves then tapered off. There was no vaccine intervention, little mask wearing, no social distancing.
But we also do NOT have a compliant society like Israel does. You tell them to get tested, they get in line. tell them to wear a mask they wear them, tell them to get vaccinated they roll up their sleeves. And are doing it for boosters now too !!
I don't know if Mu will be the next big wave. We are still finding out about it's characteristics so to make that call now seems premature at best. But if the South AFrican variant comes through with what they suspect which is 2X the contagiousness of Delta AND immunity evasion? My my my we will be for a world of hurt.
And truth be told it doesn't matter if you are seriously ill or not. A decimated work force is a decimated work force. The world will react very badly to US if we don't get this under control here
Vog,
Yes, you get the point. The danger sign is if a variant is increasing rapidly through community spread, especially if other older variants are decreasing.
But too early to see evidence of that here as just started looking for it. Plus the initial few cases are due to coming in from outside not community spread ( they have to be) and early additional imports can be a significant part of increased cases.
I would note that back in May I was starting to worry ( before I heard anyone else do so) when delta had been established and seemed to be growing rapidly, even as alpha shrinking and total cases going down.
And you cannot get all excited about cases is small places like Alaska and Virgin Islands ( small in population) - too much randomness especially at the start of measurement. And look at places like California with larger populations and more rigorous reporting.
Incidentally with Alaska, a small state with controlled access, and for a new concerning variant, that is exactly where thorough contact tracing would be cost effective.
But uk has been looking for mu more rigorously and longer. And looks like you have seen the uk data that seems to show it is not outcompeting delta. And uk is more vaccinated so that indicates that vaccine immunity breakthrough is not an issue.
Note re a variant avoiding immunity. Quite likely that an immunity avoiding mutation would be detrimental in other ways ( as most mutations are) . And differ re avoiding vaccine or natural immunity. So original virus could have a no immune R of 5, a vaccine immune R of 1, and a natural immune R of .2 ( which is a decent guess at delta). Maybe a new variant is able to avoid 20% of vaccine immunity and 10% of natural, but is less infectious overall. So R is 4 no immune 1.12 vaccine immune and .55 natural immune .
In a population with decent natural immunity and good vaccine immunity, the total R will be below 1. And in a population with too many non immune , delta will outcompete.
So not every vaccine avoiding variant is a threat .
Have you seen anything from fauci , who etc. Saying that they can actually see mu evading immunity? All I have seen so far is statements that they see mutations that COULD evade immunity . And that leaves me with little confidence as I really trust neither fauci or who to tell us the facts rather than what they want the public to hear to get the result they want. Too much prior lying and misleading.
And where are you hearing south African variant is 2 times as contagious as delta and might evade vaccines on top of that. No way that is ridiculous. If it was, it would already have become dominant everywhere. Since it has not, real world tells us not the case.
There seems to be a pattern of some coming to conclusions based on theoretical analysis that supports their biases and ignoring actual reality which contradicts their theory. For example, we kept hearing that vaccine immunity was better than natural based on just counting antibodies well after real world evidence made that clearly not correct. And many here still refuse to look at the evidence scientifically.
RT-
***sigh***
You said:
"But too early to see evidence of that here as just started looking for it. Plus the initial few cases are due to coming in from outside not community spread ( they have to be) and early additional imports can be a significant part of increased cases."
UNLIKE previous variants we DON"T know yet. Why? becasue we don't have the capacity to sequence test for Mu
https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/09/1098942
(I had to click on the link twice)
In its weekly epidemiological update, published on Tuesday, WHO warned it was becoming increasingly prevalent in Colombia and Ecuador, and showed signs of possible resistance to vaccines.
Mu was first identified in Colombia in January 2021, and since then, there have been “sporadic reports” of cases and outbreaks in South America and Europe, WHO said.
While the global prevalence of Mu among sequenced COVID-19 cases is below 0.1%, its prevalence has “consistently increased” in Colombia and Ecuador, where it is now responsible for around 39% and 13% of infections, respectively.
Reports on the variant’s prevalence should be “interpreted with due consideration” given the low sequencing capacity of most countries, the agency said.
***********************************************
You are basing your assumptions on what we think we "know"
Yet, they can't get accurate numbers on Mu because not many countries have the sequencing ability
Again, folks like DeSantis don't fund testing labs so testing is limited. He changes the parameters of whats reported and when. Then claims victory.
In Mu's case we aren't testing enough because we can't test enough.
By the time we know anything it's already spread.
Let me repeat - one week ago Israeli and UK scientists reported on Mu. in one week we went from a scientific oddity to being in 50 states and yet we can't sequence enough samples to find out just how wide spread it is.
My my my
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/09/07/mu-covid-variant-found-in-at-least-50-patients-at-houston-methodist-hospital-doctors-confirm/
{snip}
Doctors at Houston Methodist Hospital have discovered cases of a new variant of COVID-19 among patients being treated for the virus, the hospital confirmed Monday to KPRC 2.
The World Health Organization last week identified the “Mu” variant as a “variant of interest.”
Since the designation, doctors at Houston Methodist confirmed cases of the Mu variant in roughly 50 patients.
“We had our first case of Mu back in May,” said Dr. Wesley Long, medical director of diagnostic microbiology at Houston Methodist and a clinical pathologist.
Long said doctors didn’t refer to those cases as the so-called “Mu” variant until the World Health Organization designated the variant as such last week.
{snip}
From a scientific oddity
To we need more study
To It's only in a few states and LA County
to its in all but 3 states
to all 50 states
to 50 cases in a single location, in Houston
This is exactly how the first few variants were reported on. Clusters at universities, Within weeks it was a nationwide calamity.
We have NO CLUE as to how wide spread Mu is. They need to sequence test for Mu and they tend to do that only for those seriously ill and even at that they are hardly sequencing at all, world wide.
We have NO CLUE about Mu
We have no clue as to who had CV before and has natural antibodies because we decided we didn't need to follow non serious cases
Now we have a raging virus mutation that in order to be discovered needs expensive sequencing
We may be looking at something that is exceedingly dangerous. These ARE serious cases already - 50 of them, already in the hospital. They NOW KNOW they've had cases before - SERIOUS CASES because they came out of people IN THE HOSPITAL already.
How many Mu cases were not serious? Who knows?
We didn't track non serious cases - BUT - one thing is clear - this hospital -t hie ONE LOCATION has seen this variant since May all SERIOUS CASES.
The natural anti body is better than vaccine antibody's is becoming a moot argument. How many of these hospital cases had antibodies? Were they natural or vaccine induced?
Anyone who says 62% of the population has been vaccinated is correct which means many of these Houston cases are break throughs. If they have NO VACCINATION records then all bets are off because we have no idea if these folks mistook a cold or flu illness and dismissed it because they really had a mild case of CV.
Sorry but by not tracking non serious cases we cannot say with any degree of certainty that natural anti bodies work better than vaccines.
We cannot assume that all the Houston cases were vaccinated, or not but it appears to me that this HOSPITAL that treats severe cases ONLY is saying they've seen this mutation since MAY - 4 months ago tells me we are seriously under reporting Mu cases.
Faucci and WHO are being very BENIGN is saying there are "clusters" of mutations indicating anti body avoidance in the lab setting for all forms of anti bodies, not just vaccine induced ones
Mu is here, and its been here for awhile. The ONLY cases being sequenced are those stemming from hospitalizations it seems.
Mu is being UNDER estimated, UNDER tested, and UNDER reported.
To quote the late Casey Casum: "The hits just keep on coming"
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/07/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html
{snip}
The US has now tallied more than 40 million Covid-19 cases across the pandemic, with more than 4 million of them reported in the last four weeks alone, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
The count comes with a caveat: 40 million represents just officially reported positive test results, and many experts believe the actual number of infections is much larger.
{snip}
10% of our total covid cases just in the last 4 weeks alone
Finding cases since may that are Mu variant - ALL SERIOUS as the tests were done at the hospitals
I think the next 4 weeks are going to be quite telling
We seriously under estimated CV in general, and Mu in particular
And what about excess deaths being lower as compared to recorded covid deaths in the us.
Seems a lot here are desperate to try to explain that away and cannot accept it could be true . But there are logical reasons why.
First, recognize that no clear standard as to what counts as a covid death, even if you had perfect knowledge. What if someone who has cancer and will die anyway in a week gets covid and that causes them to die one day earlier. Did covid cause the death. Note it is common that , as you get close to death and the body weakens, you are prone to getting infected with a lot of things and sometimes that opportunistic infection contributes to dying that final second- but that is not recorded as the cause of death.
And what about the true story of someone who fell off a ladder with covid and it was recorded as a covid death. Ridiculous, but is it? Maybe if they did not have covid, they would not have lost their balance and fell, so did covid cause that death? But then what about if someone would have fallen off a ladder and died without covid but because of covid was sick and never used the ladder, so that is a negative covid death.
The whole issue of what should count is fuzzy.
But , assuming we have a definition, what could cause us excess deaths above actual reported covid deaths to be less?
1) if we are recording a higher share of actual covid deaths ( or overecording by more) based on a common standard as our recording standard used is more expansive.
I really can find little to clearly list exactly what standards are being used by each country, but what little I have found does seem to indicate that the us and uk have a slightly more expansive standard.
2) there are also going to be some excess deaths caused not by covid itself but by covid restrictions. Through unemployment, depression, loneliness, bacterial infections or low oxygen due to masking, etc.
Anyplace with less covid restrictions is going to have fewer of these pandemic related but non covid deaths ( even if they have more covid deaths (
3) if covid mostly accelerates a death by months, or a year or so, and does not usually kill someone who would not have died anyway within a few years, then you are going to see decreased deaths due to this factor after a covid wave.
The more deaths in the earlier covid wave , the more death reduction later as those who would have died now already died before.
Everything we know is based upon Alpha and Beta. The vaccines just happen to work on Delta. We have NO specific Delta vaccine.
Delta was 2X more contagious than A & B - why do you think there's a limit?
Also why do you continue to insist that natural immunity is better? Testing on the South African variant and Mu indicate that they CAN beat all three, or at least evade them
No rational. The jury is still out on COVID. We have been disappointed by many of the facets of this disease. WE know just enough to make enough people believe in herd immunity to not take it seriously. WE know just enough for other folks to do whats necessary only to find it might not be enough. So enough people do NOT get the vaccine - and become sick. Vaccinated people become dependent on how long their anti bodies last while the disease mutates into something that renders BOTH groups wrong.
In other words there is always a fresh group to infect depending on the variant.
Right now in this country all people under the age of 16(?) are "potential exposures" because WE don't believe we have a vaccine safe enough for them, yet. By the time we do? Another variant may be on the horizon that will render Delta or Mu impotent.
We do not have a compliant society. We never have. The Israelis do. The UK enjoys its own "freedoms" but they have national healthcare. You go to the doctor and the government knows. Positive or not, serious or not, dead or not. They have the records. The same for Israel.
We politicized COVID right from the start and in doing so we sewed doubt into our medical and scientific communities into the main stream.
We started off by NOT testing. We didn't want to know.
We started off by allowing 50 different reporting systems to exist - with 50 different governors who are allowed to change the parameters - of how, when and what we report along with the CDC that said it would only track hospitalizations !!!
Neither you, nor I have a clue as to whats good or bad information.
You make assumptions. Thats fair you're allowed
I step back and look at the big picture - we went from no Mu cases, to its only in Peru, to Israeli and UK scientists are looking at it to its in LA County, to its now in 49 out of 50 states. Given what I previously stated about those 50 governors - just how bad is it? We have no clue.
The South African variant is 42 mutations away from Alpha and 41 away from Beta which is what our vaccines are based on. We have been gloriously ignorant about this pandemic, to the point where people are using horse de-wormer thinking it's really effective !!!
Deltas's big claim to fame was the viral load it imposed on victims. It was enormous. So big in fact that it affected not only those who were older but now its our kids.
They will build up immunity against delta and those that came before. But for anything that comes AFTER Delta? Any assumptions by you and I are just that - assumptions
Why do I insist that natural immunity is better. Because that fits the facts as we see them. I will go chronologically first as to what I saw and learned .
A) when it was first being discussed and started to be used, I would have tentatively assumed that natural immunity was better as a starting assumption. Because that makes more sense. Would you not think the immune system will learn how to handle a virus best by actually seeing the virus rather than just a part of it? And usually natural immunity is better than vaccine for most things . Note traditionally vaccines used weakened or dead or similar viruses so obviously vaccine immunity will not be as good.
2) but then hearing all these studies and scientists saying that vaccine immunity is better. Seemed to come down to counting number of a antibodies ( without considering how well the antibodies work or considering other forms of immunity. Or speculation that vaccine immunity is focused more on a crucial vulnerable part of the virus ( which never made sense to me).
But initially thought maybe I was missing why they seemed overly confident and somewhat dismissed my skepticism as I figured scientists would know better than me and are probably not biased ( that was wrong should have stayed sceptical)
3) them waiting for some studies comparing how many breakthrough cases in vaccinated vs those who had covid . You know actual hard evidence comparing in real world . Nothing. Where are the studies trying to measure natural immunity, which is crucial to see what you need for herd immunity. Nothing. Why?
That makes me very suspicious. If they had evidence that natural immunity was not as good, why not publicize it to encourage vaccinations.
4) and , in spring of 2020, keep hearing more and more stories about vaccine breakthrough cases but very few about natural immunity breakthroughs. And this is confirmed by asking friends and family. Who just have heard of almost nobody who got covid twice but plenty knew people who were vaccinated and got covid .
But still not seeing hard evidence as just seems none reported re natural immunity ( and those statistics had to be kept by someone you would think).
5) so what started really making me think natural immunity had to be better was looking at how quickly cases were increasing in differing places and trying to see what could explain the different Rs . And more and more just seemed clear that natural immunity had to be better to make sense . .
And I was still bending my assumptions to try to keep the natural immunity advantage smaller than what I first was getting, because I thought it could not be that big ( looks like it is). Which meant I think I was assuming too high a number who had covid.
This is when I was posting here saying that it just looked to me that natural immunity was better because that seemed surprising at the time.
6) then we finally get a good study from Israel and it confirms what I was concluding and more so as I had not been thinking it would be that big a difference.
So based on FACTS, it now seems fairly clear that natural immunity is better. So why do you continue to not accept the science ?
Note that my analysis on case rates across places indicated that natural was better for spread immunity and that is what I was trying to determine. Until the Israeli study I had nothing to go on with respect to the comparison for preventing sickness and death. And anecdotes are not going to help much as pretty rare with either.
The Israeli study shows a natural immunity advantage there too but not as high .
Also have to again point out that, just because natural immunity is better , that does not mean that vaccine immunity is crap. It seems to not be as good at stopping infection and spread as initially reported, partially due to delta and maybe because drug company studies will tend to bias high, but my guess now is it still reduces spread by maybe 4 times . Which still helps.
The horrible communication after the Provincetown reporting ( by govt and media ) to try to justify masking for vaccinated was that vaccinated can still get and spread covid
That was always wrong and another example where playing games with info to mislead backfired.
Yes, low point of the Biden Administration handling of corona.
I had asked where you got the idea where the s African variant was twice as contagious as delta as that seemed nonsense . Can I assume from your post and no response that you concede that and must have been confused on that?
You should expect future variants to improve a lot less than delta. As variants improve, they leave less scope for future improvements.
Say you wrote a fairly good book that readers like. But you want to improve it. One way you could try is just to randomly change words and see what readers think of the change. Of course most will make it worse like changing " however " to " kangaroo". But rarely that will hit on an improvement.
That is what virus mutations do. Just keep trying random changes until something works.
But think of that book. If somehow random word change managed to produce a 50% better book, would you not think it is going to be hard to find any more words to improve?
And re immunity evading variants.
From my understanding, one of the presumed advantages of the vaccine was that it focused on a crucial part of the virus that it needs- the spike protein . So that maybe the virus would be unable to mutate to change that in an effective way. While natural antibodies are less focused and look at more aspects of the virus , some of which a mutation might be able to change. But cannot change everything at once.
So a mutation that partially evades natural antibodies is easier than evading vaccine antibodies - there are more possible mutations that could do so.
But any single mutation evading natural antibodies will only reduce immunity some - should still be plenty of unmutated targets to attack. While a single mutation effective against vaccine antibodies should be less likely but, if it happens, has a potential to almost totally eliminate it.
And t cell immunity is much harder to evade than those initial antibodies..and natural would be expected to be better there.
One interesting speculation re mu I heard. Most real world evidence is from peru which was devastated and seemed to have a higher fatality rate. So possible maybe that mu is more transmissible than alpha but less than delta ( for immunity or not ) but is more deadly.
If that is so, delta might have SAVED US by being less deadly but transmissible enough to keep mu out . So peru was unlucky by NOT getting delta first .
Golack,
Was your earlier post re 1 to 2% of the world population dying supposed to be serious or were you being satirical and making fun of the alarmists? Since you do tend to be on the alarmist side, I assume you were serious.
But did it not hit you when you wrote it that 1 to 2% of world population is ridiculous?
You made a basic math error. 10 out of 1 million per day for 100 days is .1% not 1% so off by a factor of 10.
Plus you cannot just project a death rate as continuing at same level in a pandemic. As it spreads people become immune.
Worst worst case for covid is that it is endemic and near 100% end up getting it before they become immune and no vaccination. So then total death % would be just the infection fatality rate ( not the reported case fatality rate ) . Various estimates of that. Seemed consensus including cdc was at around. 25% or a little higher but I think maybe that has increased some but not over. 5%.
That is your worst case . And vaccinations should reduce it. Plus most of the world is a lot younger and ifr will be way less than ours.
Or are the ones still left...
Well yes that true but too few die for that to be a major factor reducing spread and deaths. Way more get immune than dead.
Florida covid by demographics:
1.Hispanics 42% of cases 27% of population
2 "White" 37% of cases 53%of the population
3 "Black" 15% of cases 15% of population
4 Asian 1% of cases 3% of population
Deport the Cubans, bible thumpers and stupid black men. Problem solved.
That would be a stupid idea now.
Many Hispanic communities had a larger share of cases because, yes, they made different values choices and valued living life well vs. Living longer. So they did not social distance or mask etc. as much .
Plus they live in large households more with different generations living under one roof so hard to stop spread within households.
So that is why they have had a greater share of cases so far.
But that is in the past- already happened. What about today?
Now Hispanics have the best amount of natural immunity and are catching up to whites on vaccinations quickly ( and are probably ahead age adjusted ). So maybe now that community poses the least risk today.
If you said we should have deported Hispanics back at the start of the pandemic, at least you might have an argument . But today that does not apply.
I was joking, wow sensitive
Based on this chart, I think Eugenicist Drum might well be upset with the US showing in the G-WAS standings.
Over in the Times, Rory Kennedy is complaining that the man who murdered her father is getting paroled. Okay. That was one death. Brother Bobby's antivax death toll may never be totaled, but it's pretty sure to be 1+.
Maybe she could have a word with him.
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