Here's a chart showing job openings in the United States:
Does this really make sense? There were about 6 million job openings right before the pandemic, and this was fairly normal. Now there are 9 million. But why? GDP right now is almost identical to GDP just before the pandemic:
Are there really 9 million job openings in the United States? Or is this some artifact of the reporting process? It sure looks to me like the real number ought to be around 5-6 million.
Speaking of economic data...https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/whose-news-classbiased-economic-reporting-in-the-united-states/1D4BE72D76707973491EB36C36FE9D0B
Job openings are more about next year's GDP than this year's. GDP is increasing. Clearly it's below its 2018–19 trend.
Is anyone looking into the fact that the boomer population bulge is leaving the work force. The pandemic accelerated what was already happening, but it just seems like no one is talking about this as a reason for the low wage worker shortage.
I'm guessing some of this in an artifact. Many in the service industry are trying to hire at the same time, and schooling and child care still hasn't caught up with demand. Granted, some still trying to blame extended unemployment. There are scattered reports of increased wages, and some larger companies offering scholarships. We really have to wait for this wave to clear up before we can look for underlying trends.
I dunno -- I see a heluva lot of "help wanted" signs in local businesses in my area. Almost all service businesses -- restaurants, salons, convenience stores, etc. The local McDonalds is boasting starting wages north of $15/hr. I know from talking to friends and acquaintances that the food services industry has simply been decimated. People are just refusing to work in that industry any more, whether its because of the shitty pay, the Covid risk or, just not liking the job. Restaurants and dining services are going to have to find some kind of business model that doesn't rely on low-wage labor to function from now on, I think.
It seems like this would be connected to all the little ways that economy is out of whack coming out of pandemic. lots of people shifting around. that extra 3 million openings is < 1% of all the people in the country so it doesn't seem impossible to me.
The economy is still short roughly 10 million jobs from the pre-pandemic trend:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=FU8P
So as the economy recovers (if that's what it is doing) there would seem to be potential for up to that many re-openings above normal turnover. Of course they would not all come open in one month.
Concur with many points above, notably time-lag. Also, a lot of those jobs are low-wage -- as has been extensively reported, people just aren't taking low-paying jobs, and while some employers have reasoned their way tortuously to the absurdly simple solution of paying workers a little more, many others simply won't (far more than truly can't), and a lot of those jobs are going "looking." Low-wage jobs just don't contribute as much to GDP figures, so even without time-lag, it's much less likely to show up there.
Total US employment (non-farm)
Feb 2020: 152.5 million
Jul 2021: 146.8 million
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
In the current recovery, we are still almost 6 million jobs below the pre-pandemic peak. We should have a lot of job openings.
We are still well below the peak for prime participation (25-54 y.o.).
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search?updated-max=2021-08-08T15:18:00-04:00&max-results=10&start=100&by-date=false
We are producing more GDP with fewer workers. A variety of factors behind that, including:
--Workers are working longer hours
--Productivity is beginning to tick up
Prime chart here:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/08/comments-on-july-employment-report.html
Kevin, while it might not explain all of it, on Monday a link to: https://www.npr.org/2021/08/23/1028993124/these-older-workers-hadnt-planned-to-retire-so-soon-the-pandemic-sped-things-up darkened your inbox.
If 2 million more have retired, that leaves about 4 million who had jobs, have not retired, and do not have jobs.
Prime participation:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/08/comments-on-july-employment-report.html
Quits:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUR
First, minor point. Kevin's chart are a bit off in spacing I think, especially the gdp one. I believe the small dip in gdp is 1st quarter 2020 and the big dip is 2nd quarter 2020. The chart makes it look like the peak gdp was in mid 2019. Actually was likely feb 2020 maybe at 19.3 trillion rate. The small decrease for 1st quarter 2020 is growth for 2 months and then a big decline for March mixed in together.
But, as others have explained, we are still short on jobs and especially jobs filled.
Kevin compared gdp with more than a year and a half ago and shows maybe around 1% growth ( actually less if you go from feb 2020). Yes, we are back to pre pandemic total gdp but that is shifty growth, not even keeping up with population. And normally that is almost like a recession.
And we should expect employment to grow maybe 2 million during the period but employment is down.
Employment down with job openings up means the issue is a shortage of supply of labor not demand. Maybe a lot due to unemployment being extended so many have no reason to take those open jobs. Or some are too scared of covid to want to go back anyway.
Really want a month or two as the extra unemployment benefits end to see where we end up.
But we are peaking re covid and scare factor right when many might be taking open jobs otherwise as they see unemployment ending soon. That might offset and distort the effect.
I also wonder, if the pool of the unemployed who are just " taking a long paid vacation " while they get big unemployment benefits is big enough, so that those jobs openings will get filled up fast when they do, if the procrastinators will be out of luck. Havd advised someone who has been taking advantage of it and not looking to get a job now before the extended unemployment runs out. Might have to actually go back to work a month earlier than otherwise but you will maybe get your pick of the best open jobs.
I would say if not nine million its somewhere close to that. My Lord, local school districts are having a hard time finding bus drivers and are actually paying parents to transport their kids to school.
And the reason why is the pandemic. Drivers tend to be older and they don't wish to pick up COVID-19 in an enclosed space everyday and that's even if the local school districts requires kids to wear masks and socially distances them. So many retired or quit because of it, hardly people who want to sit on their ass all day living off unemployment benefits (which data has shown the states ending benefits early really didn't do a lot to fix the worker shortage, did it?)
Basically you have Boomers getting out of the workforce. People don't realize having a population of post-retirees willing to still work filled a lot of jobs, especially in the service sector. The you have immigration restrictions because of COVID-19 which means more unfilled positions. Women with small children have also left the workforce because they've figured out they can still balance their family budgets without expensive child care costs. That's more people out of the workforce. Finally, lets face it. Over 600,000 have died due to COVID-19. Even if half of those were elderly and infirm in nursing homes, that's still 300,000 people who will never work again. You can't take out that many people and not expect it to affect the labor force.
Bottom line is for employers, the either have to force the the GOP to stop with the anti-immigrant rhetoric and to do so by withholding their contributions to the party, or develop robots or go out of business. Because without a massive influx of such people, there's no way all those jobs are going to be filled and at pay levels which will allow them to make a profit. It just can't be done.
This is a good explanation.
300,000 nursing home deaths will also cut a huge number of jobs as there is a pretty high staff to patient ratio. And other deaths will also have that same long term effect.
Deaths evenly spread out across the population will tend to reduce total jobs, total unemployment and job openings proportionately.
By just focusing on perhaps 300,000 out of 600,000 deaths being of those who were former workers, you are ignoring the jobs that those dead people used to support by their demand for goods and services.
And I guarantee you that well under 50% of deaths were from the employed. A whole lot of them were retired but not in nursing homes.
The fact that the deaths did hit nursing homes disproportionately hard should tend to reduce job openings , not increase them.
just fyi: There are currently ~95,000 covid-19 patients in the hospital.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations
We have a lot of older workers who are leaving all at once, a lot of would-be working parents who cant go back because daycare and school is so up in the air, and a lot of people just dont think crappy jobs are worth it anymore.
Sounds like a recipe for a lot of open positions just sitting there unfilled.
Both of the first two points are important .
Some older workers might have been 2 or 3 years away from retirement anyway when covid hit. And then they are out of a job due to covid for up to a year. So effectively they start their retirement early and is it really worth it to go back just for another year. Someone might be financially able to retire at say 62, but decide to stay on until 65 just because they are still OK with working and maybe feel some loyalty to their employer. If they are laid off at age 62 for a year due to covid , are they going to go back at age 63? And even more if the job is gone . And who wants to hire them for only 2 years?
And school and day care. There are some very covid afraid parents keeping their kids remote or home schooled because they are scared of covid. And then there is another group opposed to masking vaccines, testing who are keeping their kids home so they can avoid that at school. And that will dramatically increase if they eventually try to mandate vaccination for students.
The groups are 100% different in reason but same result and now neither parent can get an outside job.
But we will not see this clearly until the extra unemployment ends. Because all but the most honest of those will still be claiming unemployment until then even though they have no intent of going back to work.
Both distortions will fade away over a few years.
On your third issue, of course they do not think crappy jobs are worth it if they are getting paid in extended unemployment even more than a job will pay.
We will have to see how it all plays out when the unemployment expires. Before then, any analysis is premature.
Does this really make sense? There were about 6 million job openings right before the pandemic, and this was fairly normal. Now there are 9 million. But why? GDP right now is almost identical to GDP just before the pandemic:
These numbers, if accurate, suggest the various actors that produce our economic output are trying to expand production (of both goods and services).
Where my wife works they are having a terrible job filling positions. When they had dozens and dozens of resumes before they get about 10% of that now. These are for high paying, remote, white collar jobs. I don't think the extended unemployment is making a difference in these roles. Since they are 100% remote I don't think covid is coming in to play. Something strange is happening.
For some, it's still child care. If schools can successfully re-open, more people will be comfortable looking for a job.
Why would not extended unemployment play a role if someone who was let go to covid and is collecting unemployment might be able to do that job by why apply if you are getting paud to stay home?
But you are correct that it would be much less of a factor for that type of a job as less likely there is a big pool of those type of people on unemployment.
Another issue I see rarely mentioned. What should happen in a real tight labor market is employers have to increase wages to get workers to work in these " crappy jobs" until you reach an equilibrium free market wage. And that would be happening more if employers were sure there was not enough labor supply.
But today nobody really knows if there really is a free market labor shortage or how much of that is artificial due to extended unemployment. Employers know or hope that, once it ends , there will be a large group ready to take those jobs. Until that happens, employers cannot judge how high the pay has to be to fill the position.
Once the extended unemployment ends , after a while, if an opening is still unfilled, they have to face the fact that they need to either increase the offered wage or eliminate the position and make do.
So employers are waiting to see too.
People aren't getting paid *that* much to stay home.
If they are getting paid more in unemployment than they did when they were working or what they could make getting a job, " that" is plenty much to keep them from getting a job.
I hope you wife can leave that "terrible job" and find a good one instead! (yuk yuk yuk)
GDP probably will get revised upwards
Just as you would anticipate,
That must be what accounts for wingnuts mammoth self-conceit.
and that link is,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-26/what-s-driving-america-s-economic-output-vaccinated-blue-counties-biden-won
We have the normal 5 to 6 million job openings plus the additional 3 million job openings created by people who left work during the pandemic.
We have the normal 5 to 6 million job openings plus the additional 3 million job openings created by people who left work during the pandemic
That looks to be the case, but the question is "why?"
In other words if GDP is back to pre-pandemic levels despite the fact that 3 million "left the workforce," it suggests that productivity has risen. We can now produce more wither fewer workers! And I believe there's some evidence this indeed is the case.
So why is there the "normal" (as you put it) number of openings? Higher productivity would suggest a slackening demand for labor, all things equal.
But of course all things aren't equal. That higher producer is helping to drive real gains in income and living standards. In other words, the growth potential of the economy appears to have expanded. Which means we need more workers. Which is great news.
Having social conservatives in public life is why we should have gorillas do brain surgery, because they can just crack your skull open without having to use any fancy and expensive equipment, or worry about your delicate 'correct procedure'.
First - the boomer leaving the work force argument was made by the US DoL back in the 90s. They saw this coming. They were claiming even back then, that Nurses and truck driver jobs would go unfilled even with higher wages. No one wants the stress of Nursing, and no one want the tediousness of driving a truck.
As for service industry jobs? A neighbors kid explained it to me this way. She worked at McDonalds (she's a high schooler). She liked the job. It was close by and gave her enough spending cash to "get by". AFter they re-opened it got down graded to drive through ONLY. She was lucky and kept her job there. One thing that DID CHANGE was customers attitudes. They became bitchy, REAL BITCHY. When take out opened customers were able to come in and purchase but couldn't stay inside and eat but the bitchy-ness was now in your face bitchy. It ranged from how dare you deny me a seat in here to "hell no I an't wearing a mask". Service jobs, for the most part are part time, and those that are "customer facing" were really bad jobs when those workers had to not only contend with limited hours but they also were front line mask policy enforcers.. So, we had pent up demand, COVID risks, people who were at, close to retirement age all coming together to make the anticipated labor shortage come a could of years earlier and made it more extreme. I have seen grocery store clerks just walk off the job after a customer complained to him about the store's mask mandate. He took his name tag off and just said "I'm done".
Is there a good reason to think that the increased or extended federal unemployment benefits are causing people to stay home? Stats indicate that in states where they have eliminated them already has had little to no affect on the unfilled openings. SC has more job openings NOW after eliminating the increased benny's than they did before and Lindsey Graham has been awfully quiet about it since those stats came out !!
My daughter in MASS runs a district for a fast food behemoth. They may have to go back to drive through only due to lack of help. It's MUCH safer, the employees can close the window on obnoxious customers, and their overhead is slashed which makes her bonuses bigger. The starting pay for them is $17.50/hr with pay raises almost immediately upon completion of the training period. Her average hourly wage right now is $20/hr. Under ACA part timers - read - NO BENEFITS - was anyone who worked less than 32 hours per week. Now some fast food places are offering health care to part timers as an incentive to come to work.
Take a breath people - service industry job holders are NOT your servants. That person you are talking to does NOT make the rules. Older Americans believe they should be able to do what they want, when they want and they DEMAND things go their way. Civility has gone out the window
But Americans thrive on work, and always have. Employers know that ending benefits will not ease the shortages.
There are some helpful policies that could be implemented - but thats a subject for another post
I live in a touristy area. Myrtle Beach is 60 miles away from me here in Wilmington NC
A few anecdotal observations
EVERY fast food joint and store in the area is hiring
The small Mom and Pop hotels along the beach strands have now stated that due to lack of help your room will not be cleaned daily. If you are there for the weekend its clean when you come in and it will get cleaned after your leave. If you are there for a week they MAY clean it midweek only. Some of the chain hotels are considering doing this too.
Casual dining - the Chili's, Applebees, Olive Gardens - are strapped for help and limiting seating as a result. This has the added benefit of social distancing customers but that is NOT the reason for it.
CNA's and other HC jobs are so plentiful it's pathetic. Mechanics and all trade groups in construction are short of help. Lawn Care? Forget that - there are so many openings that LC company's are coming and going........
Whats the answer(s)? I don't know for certain because of COVID but we all need to think before we go off on a kid at a grocery store or a fast food counter. THey are not the problem
#1 - corporation may need to down size their expectations and close some locations. Is it really necessary to have 10 McDonalds in Wilmington NC? A city of 102,000? Or even 6 Hardees ?
#2 - We need to encourage training in "the "Trades". Starting pay for electricians with training but no experience is exceptionally high right now. And A/C technicians in the south? Good grief they can pick their employer
#3 - yes we do need to ease the work visa program. We have chicken, turkey, pork and meat processing plants here. Smithfield Foods in Tar Heel NC is one of the single largest processing plants in the U.S. but no one wants to work in there. The jobs are dirty, the place smells and everyone has a stopwatch - for even when you go to the bathroom. Those jobs need to be filled by immigrants.
#4 - We need to provide for free college level educations for Nurse and Doctors to entice people to go into these fields
#5 - remove the impediments of working from those already retired. Allow for unfettered income for seniors who are collecting Soc Sec. Employers would LOVE to have some of their experience. OThers may welcome the seniors dedication to their employers attitude that we grew up with.
We need to encourage work and anything we can do in this regard would take pressure off of business people who are desperate, BEGGING for help.
BTW a senior will normally NOT verbally attack another senior. I have seen Seniors working part time at Chik Fila as dining room attendants that NEVER get yelled at for mask mandates. A friend of mine works at Hardee's party time. He loves it. Likes the extra $ but really likes talking to people and making them feel at home. He walks with an exaggerated limp and wears one elevated shoe. His customers love him and his boss does too. A guy like him is worth his weight in gold right now.
But UNTIL the seniors of the baby boom generation completely die off we will have MORE people demanding MORE services than we can provide help for.