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How Much Is 500,000 Extra Deaths?

As you're undoubtedly aware, the United States passed the 500,000 death mark from COVID-19 yesterday. This prompted a spate of pieces trying to put this in context. Laid end to end it's enough people to reach from San Diego to San Francisco. It's more than the number of people buried at Arlington Cemetery. It's enough to fill 25 Olympic-size swimming pools.¹ Etc.

I have never found these kinds of comparisons helpful. However, perhaps because I'm fairly nerdish, this one is:

Over the past few weeks, we have recorded about 40% more deaths than we normally would. On average, since the pandemic started, our death rate has increased by 20%.

In other words, if the normal death rate in a nursing home of 200 patients is, say, five per week, it's now six per week. During COVID-19 spikes, it's seven per week. Week after week after week.

¹Author's calculations for all of these.

11 thoughts on “How Much Is 500,000 Extra Deaths?

  1. skeptonomist

    The overall death rate should not be applied to nursing homes. The normal death rate in them is higher than in the total population, but nursing homes have been hit much harder, both because of greater susceptibility of the inmates and because of poor isolation and insufficient care. The rate would have to be worked out on the basis of actual nursing home numbers, but the increase in rate would probably be higher than 20%. A very large part of the 500k+ is among older people everywhere.

    1. WryCooder

      @skeptonomist. Can you add a bit to the logic of your statement?

      It sounds as though your point is that old people are going to die anyway and the fact that COVID was the cause of death should be discounted. Is that your point?

    1. golack

      It's a complex disease, and I'm sure there will be a human genetic component to it. But always take the first pass with a grain of salt--especially when low populations sizes are involved. The authors conclusions are reasonable at this stage, though I fear any genetic results can be demagogued. This type or research is needed, but shouldn't be hyped.

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