I've got some good news and some bad news for December inflation:
The good news is that CPI inflation was negative in December. Prices were down 0.9% from their level in November.
Sadly, the core CPI went up a little bit and now stands at 3.7% on an annualized basis. This is still not a terrible reading, but it's up from 2.4% in November.
(Using the more conventional year-over-year figures, headline CPI in December was 6.5% and core CPI was 5.7%. Both were down from November.)
As usual, don't pay too much attention to individual monthly numbers, whether they're favorable or not. However, it's worth noting that the trendline for headline CPI stands at 0.7%, which is obviously a great number. Maybe too great, even. Keep in mind that 2% is the official goal.
But people still have JOBS!!!!
And this headline from CNN: "Auto sales falling, profits soaring"
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/12/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
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It's almost like a massive pandemic happened an messed everything up and now it's over mostly. That can't be right because the Very Serious People think it's just like the 70s, which also totally had no exogenous events to explain why there was inflation.
-0.9%! Quick, drop interest rates to zero! Overreact! Overreact! Unless we overreact no one will take us seriously!
I fear this isn't great news.
If we're already close to deflation, Powell's Big Adventure is going to hit hard.
Hard enough to flip the presidency, which I still maintain was and is his goal.
It wasn't .9% which would have been a HUGE drop. It was 0.09%.
off by a factor of 10