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Joe Biden lost about two points of support after the CNN debate

Published on 90 Comments on Joe Biden lost about two points of support after the CNN debate

Here is YouGov's weekly tracking poll of the presidential race:

After Joe Biden's disastrous CNN debate, he lost a grand total of two points of support. Trump gained nothing.

Among independents Biden lost four points and Trump, remarkably, lost one point. Their support mostly went to RFK Jr. and Jill Stein. This suggests that Trump really does have a ceiling on his support.

On average, other polls also show Biden losing a net of 2-3% after the debate. This is remarkably little, probably due to a combination of low viewership and high partisanship.

90 thoughts on “Joe Biden lost about two points of support after the CNN debate”

      1. mudwall jackson

        well gosh golly the times! as if it's the only voice out there calling for biden to drop out of the race. eight years later and even the times knows that trump is manifestly unfit to hold the office of dog catcher let alone the office of president of the united states. regardless. this ain't hillary's emails. for the record i'll vote for a corpse on the democratic ticket if necessary to keep trump out of the white house.

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        1. LactatingAlgore

          when has the sulzberger advertiser editorial board condemed trump as unfit for office? when did they demand his resignation between 2017& 2021? have they beseeched his departure as nominee in 2024? after he mocked one of their own in the lamestream community, sergei kovaleski, at a 2015-16 rally, did they deem him manifestly unworthy of the presidency?

          face it. the sulzberger mafia believes presidential unfitness only goes on way. biden's age/memory, bill's conduct after the revelation of the monica affair, hillary's emails, dean's scream, obama's affection for arugula. all unworthy of the office.

          bush's ixing of intelligence prior to Iraq 2, trump's blackmailing of ukraine, ted cruz's porn predilection not taking a day off on 9/11, john mc cain's explaining chelsea clinton's ugliness as her dad being janet reno,romney's casting aside of half the country as lazy moochers undeserving of life liberty & the pursuit of happiness. all these men either deserving of the presidency or the right to run for it.

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      1. KenSchulz

        I just looked, and now there’s nothing at all on the ‘front page’ about the imperial Presidency. You have to go to the Opinions page and scroll down to find any article about the Court’s misconduct.
        July 1 is the Court’s day of infamy.

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  5. zaphod

    Another good Atlantic article, this time by Ron Brownstein.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/biden-democrats-debate-paralysis/678887/?gift=2YNNq6Keyf3IIpU3SjFQNDQjJ_5lQnlsH3hQiEtJgg4

    Democrats Begin Their Shift From Anxiety to Action

    "The ground may be starting to shift under President Joe Biden after his scattered and sometimes disoriented debate performance last week.
    ............
    Across the party, widespread agreement is emerging that Biden’s chances of beating Donald Trump have dramatically diminished. “No one I have talked to believes Biden is going to win this race anymore: nobody,” said one longtime Democratic pollster working in a key battleground state who, like almost all of the party insiders I interviewed for this article, asked for anonymity to discuss the situation candidly."

    Wait for it.

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    1. bebopman

      On a barely related tangent, I’ve been slamming the Dem Party for years over their refusal to push forward and highlight the next generation. Now that refusal is biting them in the butt . they have no bench (same problem my beloved Denver nuggets had in the nba playoffs) We can throw out names, but as far as I can tell, the party has done zero to nationally trumpet these people as future national leaders . So they end up trying to build a national profile on their own and you get ridiculous spectacles like newsom going on Fox News to debate …. Who was it? … Steve bannon? Stephen miller? Count Chocula? …. I can’t even remember. . It was that good . Nice job Dems. I’ll bet after Biden’s 2nd term, they have been planning to push Hillary again.

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      1. Jasper_in_Boston

        they have no benc

        That's seriously your take?

        I don't disagree that our system has concentrated too much power in the hands of the aged (this is true for both parties, and I believe is tied to various features of our constitution and modern society).

        But it's sheer fake news to state Democrats have "no bench." Mark Kelly, Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris, Wes Moore, Andy Beshear, Gavin Newsom, Maura Healey, Gina Raimondo, Hakeem Jeffries, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Raphael Warnock, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Josh Shapiro, John Fetterman, Roy Cooper, Michelle Obama, Jon Ossoff...

        Democrats have a bench that is wide, and deep, and far more impressive than the GOP's.

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        2. bebopman

          Several of those I’ve never heard of. And I follow several news sources every day. A lot more than the typical voter who thinks the Dem party consists entirely of Joe, Harris, Hillary and Obama. You know who has been the best at promoting the Dems’ back bench? Stephen Colbert. And that’s not his job. That should be the party’s job.

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          1. bebopman

            Oh! I should be more specific. I don’t doubt the party has decent youngin’s. I’m sure the people in their states love ‘em. Very few are known outside their states. Notice how the alleged best alternatives to Biden are people who on his own arrange a debate on Fox News, survive an assassination plot by trump fans or ran 4 years ago. Were any helped by the party? Maybe the party does arrange late night show appearances?

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    2. Crissa

      Atlantic? The home to 'he's too old in 2020' and 'we jave all the nad faith arguments and columnists who have never done anything but be trust fund kiddies and write columns?

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  6. KJK

    I would vote for Joe's dog Commander before I would vote for Il Duce.

    I believe the damage to Biden's candidacy with continue and is much greater than the poll cited by KD

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  7. kenalovell

    This is remarkably little, probably due to a combination of low viewership and high partisanship.

    Or could ordinary Americans not have been caught up in the astonishing defeatism that's created such mindless panic among left-leaning pundits and bloggers recently? Could they have merely thought to themselves "Yeah old Joe, who we knew was old, had a bad night" and shrugged it off as just one of those things?

    Nah, unpossible, that would mean the blogger/pundit echo chamber was wrong. Forget I mentioned it.

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  8. iamr4man

    I wonder what the polls would show if there weren’t so many hair on fire dems/pundits saying Biden should step down/resign.
    Seems to me that a lot of people, Kevin included, who’ve been watching Biden carefully in case of a misstep and when it happened they felt their worst fears were realized. Anyone else it would have just been a misstep but with people primed to think the worst they immediately assumed the worst. Honestly though, I thought Kevin was better than this.

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  9. middleoftheroaddem

    "Joe Biden lost about two points of support after the CNN debate"

    Maybe. I think one needs to wait a few more day, THEN look at the polls. Several respectful polls, still include a pre debate period. Basically, how many Dems will now refuse to vote for Biden?

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    1. Crissa

      How about comparing the same polls to themselves, too? Wasn't Joe down 6 points in the last poll before the debate (because fewer dems would answer it, was the excuse)

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  10. zaphod

    The most worrisome comment from Kevin in the last few days:

    In any case, if this is right it means things are going to get even worse in fairly short order. Unfortunately, Biden himself doesn't see it. When you start to lose your faculties, the first thing to go is your ability to recognize that you're losing your faculties.

    Well at least Biden has the excuse of old age. The inevitable deterioration of a once sound mind.

    In the face of almost certain loss if Biden remains in the race, what is the excuse of those who still refuse to shed Biden for a younger candidate? Tough question. Maybe the maths of poll watching are just too difficult for them. Maybe they don't understand how typical ordinary Americans think. (Hint: Self-serving lies delivered with good rhetorical effect will "trump" facts mumbled in confused incomplete sentences every time.)

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      1. LactatingAlgore

        european learners of english as a second language typically are exposed to british dialectical variants, so a russian troll account from the internet research agency would likely use albion argot (pram, lift, lorry, nappy, maths, etc.). not saying zaphod or dohrk mach 2 are chaos agents, but if the shoe fits...

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    2. Crissa

      Well, A) Americans vote for an administration, not a single name. There's a VP, and all the others appointed.
      But B) the campaign isn't allowed to change the names on the ticket,

      So all this howling is bullshit. If Biden actually froze up, Harris would replace him.

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  11. rick_jones

    Lost only two points, but in Kevin’s mind must not only drop out of the race, but resign outright… That is a lot of cognitive dissonance to juggle even for the unimpaired.

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    1. bebopman

      Whether Biden can do the job doesn’t depend on the polls. Screw the polls. If Biden can do the job only on certain days or for only an hour or two per day, then he should resign. If he wins, that’s 4 and a half more years. And I can promise he won’t get younger; he won’t get better. (How do you think Bibi is able to use him like a rag doll?) ….. Or is the plan to dump Biden and think about the country only after Election Day?

      (I personally don’t mind if Biden sticks around til ‘lection day. But that amazingly lame excuse he’s pushing now — “overseas travel is hard!” — does not inspire confidence. It reeks of desperation. No one believes it.)

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        1. CAbornandbred

          I'm sure it's very hard. But Biden was at Camp David for 6 days prepping for the debate. I simply don't believe jet lag that many days later is a believable excuse. And the cold? Maybe it was a bigger issue because he's too old for the job.

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    2. coldhotel

      If Biden does decide to drop out as a candidate for re-election, Harris is the obvious choice to replace him. I think it would boost her electoral fortunes if Biden were to resign so that she runs for reelection, if for no other reason than to give her reasons to campaign sparingly.

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    3. KennyZ

      Agree. Kevin rushed to be part of the bed wetters brigade! I'll assume that Kev's meds are making him lose his faculties. He should resign from this blog RIGHT NOW!

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  12. Solar

    "This is remarkably little, probably due to a combination of low viewership and high partisanship."

    Or perhaps doomsayer pundits too high on their self perceived intelligence like a certain KD, don't actually know how the average person will react to things and project all their fears, shortcomings, and unknowns unto them?

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    1. zaphod

      So, why do you think that your opinion of what the average person will do is better than Kevin's? Without some evidence of your claim , I'll take Kevin's opinion over yours any day.

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      1. Solar

        Go ahead taking his. I'm not the one who jumped the gun to follow the pundit herd, and then when actually faced with evidence (that's supposed to be Kevin's whole gig) contradicting that quick and over the top reaction, instead of saying, "OK perhaps I overreacted", took the position that the evidence must be wrong because it doesn't match my preconceived ideas.

        I guess the saying that in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king remains true.

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    1. dausuul

      They're a quick and (relatively) easy way to assess movement in the race. If the national polls shift 2 points toward Trump, there's a good chance state polls are doing likewise.

      You need those state polls to figure out who's actually winning, but it takes longer to build up a clear picture from them. It'll be a little while yet before we have enough post-debate state polling to say much. But pre-debate state polls told a consistent story: Biden was losing *before* the debate. He needed the debate to give him a bump. At best, it has failed to do that; at worst, it has done the opposite.

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  16. lower-case

    bloomberg:

    A New York Times/Siena College poll released Wednesday found Trump ahead by 49% to 43%, while a Wall Street Journal poll found an almost identical result, with him leading by 48% to 42%. It’s Trump’s largest lead of the race in both polls.

    The surveys suggest that worries over Biden’s age are driving the shift. Nearly three-quarters of voters in the Times poll said the 81-year-old president is too old for the job — up 5 points from a pre-debate poll taken last week. And the Journal poll found that the share of voters who say Biden is too old to run has risen by 7 points since February, to 80%.

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    1. LactatingAlgore

      trump at 48%, 49% confuses me. he pulled 46% against hillary, 45.5 or against biden, & hasn't gotten any more revered in the years from 2015-16 to now.

      where are these 2.5, 3% of people emerging from?

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  17. Justin

    Biden would lose if he were 60 years old and had full possession of his faculties. This is what folks don't understand. Age and infirmity are just the excuse the people need to embrace Trumpism. That's my view anyway. No one is really changing their minds. Polls are tracking ghosts.

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      1. Justin

        Yeah, it’s crazy. People don’t see the danger. It’s not 2020 anymore.

        “The only problem is, Milwaukee isn’t returning the affection — not even close — and that could be a big problem for Biden. Polls suggest the president is trailing his 2020 performance in the city and surrounding county. In Wisconsin’s April Democratic primary, his performance within the city limits lagged well behind the rest of the state.”

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  18. D_Ohrk_E1

    The (a) relative stability of the one-on-one polls is just part of the story. The other parts are, (b) that more people than before the debate think Biden is too old, and (c) Kamala Harris is now performing at about the same level against Trump as Biden is. Combined, they tell a different narrative than many seem to conclude.

    Biden is replaceable and people think Harris might be the next person up.

    But why replace Biden if the other potential candidates aren't polling ahead of him?

    Simply, like Trump, Biden has a known, fixed ceiling, but a replacement is able to expand it. It's in the margins -- the undecideds and soft supporters -- where the race will be won or lost.

    In places where Biden's numbers have dropped but Trump's numbers haven't moved up, this is reflecting an increase in soft support and weakening enthusiasm for Biden.

    The longer it takes for Biden to drop out, Democrats will face (a) greater noise calling for Biden to step down with the topic driving the narrative and news, (b) the less time there will be to vet potential candidates, and (c) the more difficult it will be to coalesce around a candidate before the convention, leading to a chaotic convention that cannot deliver the desired narrative it wants to promulgate.

    This is not bed-wetting. This is impartial, strategic thinking with the goal of beating Trump, taking back the House, and holding onto the Senate.

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    3. Crissa

      The earlier he drops out, the worse off we are.

      You apparently want to throw away an entire campaign and administration for 'someone' you can't name who's supposed to fund this campaign in some way you can't name.

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      1. D_Ohrk_E1

        The earlier he drops out, the worse off we are.

        I'm not clairvoyant nor smart enough to understand your point, so I need you to explain why dropping out sooner is worse.

        You apparently want to throw away an entire campaign and administration for 'someone' you can't name who's supposed to fund this campaign in some way you can't name.

        Between now and the convention, we're still in the primary election funding cycle. Once a nominee is picked, FEC contribution limits reset and we're in the general election funding cycle. If Biden drops out late and support does not solidify around Kamala Harris, there won't be a meaningful opportunity for the eventual candidate to maximize funding during the primary cycle.

        It's not my duty to pick a candidate; I'm not even saying it should be Harris. The sooner he quits, the sooner the DNC can devise a meaningful ad hoc system to pick a candidate who is widely supported: (a) schedule an immediate debate of the candidates who have FEC declared their candidacy and raised $1M in small donations in week 1; (b) using polling, whittle down to top-3 candidates and have a second debate in week 2; (b) conduct state-level informal, open caucuses using rank choice voting in week 3; (c) preliminarily select a "winner" in week 4 and maximize donations before the convention where the nominee is officially picked.

        If Harris isn't the candidate, it does not appear that the FEC limits transfers back to the DNC which can then disburse funds to support the new candidate. But even if this isn't the case, the Biden-Harris campaign could indirectly fund the new candidate with ad buys, GOTV funding, etc.

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  19. cld

    After Joe Biden's disastrous CNN debate, he lost a grand total of two points of support. Trump gained nothing.

    I think a lot of people are thinking that he may have looked elderly but he also didn't look like he wasn't going to make it until November. Then maybe he'll resign next year sometime and we'll have Kamala Harris.

    Why force the issue now when that's where we'd end up anyway?

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      1. cld

        Contrasted with 'go ahead, vote for Trump, we're sticking with, er, whomever this is'?

        Remember, LBJ stepped aside, Kennedy was shot and we were left with Hubert Humphrey, who almost no one wanted to even think about, a circumstance that highly motivated the Nixon voter and de-motivated everyone else.

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          1. cld

            Humphrey lost because he was Hubert Humphrey, a man blessed with the charisma of a Minnesota Tuesday, or a community college oyster mascot giving a rousing speech he knows they'll all be talking about tomorrow.

            Crediting Vietnam or the southern strategy is just rationalizing away the obvious.

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            1. KenSchulz

              Hubert Humphrey was actually quite a dynamic speaker. He certainly had far more charisma than Nixon, or Eugene McCarthy, whose polling in New Hampshire drove LBJ out of the race. McCarthy's sole compelling issue was Vietnam; HHH, out of loyalty to LBJ, would not renounce the latter's war policy. Humphrey had strong union support, and strong civil-rights credentials going back into the 1950's. Nixon had a 'secret plan' to end the war, and the 'law and order' dog whistle.

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            2. bebopman

              LBJ, a man who had personality coming out of his ears (and who some of us now hope will serve as an inspiration to Biden), pulled out of his ‘68 campaign when he realized he couldn’t win with the party badly split over Vietnam and partly because of his health (again, Joe, pay attention). HHH didn’t lose on personality. The riots at the Chicago convention were not over personality.

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                1. KenSchulz

                  You’re reading Wikipedia. I was there ‘neat and clean for Gene’, knocking on doors for McCarthy. The election was about Vietnam and the riots. Charisma was not a factor after Bobby Kennedy’s assassination.

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                  1. cld

                    Charisma is everything. It's why someone can be popular, and ignoring it is the key reason why Democrats were so lame for decades afterward.

                    Thinking about Hubert Humphrey is like thinking about somebody else's breakfast from 55 years ago.

                    0.7% is a small edge to fail by, any small thing could have made the difference. So what did Humphrey lack? An actual reason to vote for him, a motivating factor, as his subsequent career demonstrated.

                    A shred of charisma never hurt anyone.

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                    2. cld

                      Yes, and more than a lot of people, and so does Trump.

                      Alternatives would have to overcome a general unfamiliarity that distracts from paying serious attention to them.

        2. lower-case

          if we're looking at historical precedent the list of successful presidential candidates who have had a mental collapse on national tv in front of 50 million people is pretty short

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    2. zaphod

      "Why force the issue now when that's where we'd end up anyway?"

      There is the small matter that Biden would first have to win. It's obvious that he is not going to. That's why we have to force the issue now, to have a non-zero chance at winning.

      Of course I realize that most here, and maybe even most Democrats, want to "unskew the polls". So it comes down to the Evil Party vs. the Stupid Party. What a choice!

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  21. lwagner

    Biden's 43% includes both strong supporters and anybody but Trump voters, so his number is not going to go down much. It doesn't need to go down much for him to decide to drop out, with the growing calls for him to step aside. I think he drops out with in a week.

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  22. KenSchulz

    Not to put too much stock in a single poll, but if others turn out like this, that would be further evidence that Trump still has a ceiling in about the same place as 2016 and 2020. Not really surprising. This is the time in the cycle where third-party and minor-candidate polling represents dissatisfaction; historically, their numbers drop as the election approaches.
    On the other side, Trump also apparently has a floor; his indictments and convictions haven't caused a significant drop in support. The way to win this election is to focus on whatever will turn out the unreliable D-leaners. If we can't get vast numbers of women to the polls in the wake of Dobbs, and large numbers of young voters who don't want to be victims of floods, wildfires, intense hurricanes and tornado clusters, Dems will lose, with Biden or anyone else.

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  24. horaceworblehat

    It's telling that the release of the Epstein documents the other day hasn't made it at all to the media (or on this blog where Kevin is frothing at the mouth yelling for Biden's resignation) where it shows Trump raped multiple girls, one as young as 12. Yet, the media is still all up in arms over one single debate performance by Biden. Not that it'd matter any to Trump's election chances. His voters are scum just like he is. But, it is curious there's nary a mention of it anywhere.

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  25. johngreenberg

    Looking at this chart, what leaps out at me is that roughly 16% of those polled have been and continue to be uncommitted to either candidate. That's where elections are won or lost. That's a pretty big number for this point in the cycle, though perhaps it's been this big in other cycles. In any case, worth noting and as far as I'm aware, never reported.

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