What would it mean to decide we're going to "live with COVID"? One thing it doesn't mean is that we shrug our shoulders and decide to ignore it and lead our lives the way we used to. Rather, it means agreeing on a set of countermeasures that we think we can live with on a long-term basis. For example:
Things we'd pretty much make permanent:
- Get vaxxed and then get boosted every year or so. (Details would depend on our evolving understanding of vaccine effectiveness.)
- Mask up at indoor public places. But not routinely at work. (Or should we bow to reality and give up on masks entirely?)
- Require proof of vaccination for large indoor events.
- Close schools only briefly and only on rare occasions when prevalence is high locally and 2-3% of students have tested positive.
On a long-term basis, we should do more research on the kind of ventilation that's best for reducing airborne transmission within large buildings. Then, probably over the course of years, we should subsidize investment in improved building ventilation.
Things we'd stop doing except in dire emergencies:
- Testing requirements for entry to another country.
- Routine testing requirements in general (instead rely more on proof of vaccination).
- Broad business shutdowns.
- Restaurant shutdowns.
- Remote learning.
- Rigorous social distancing requirements.
- Reduced capacity requirements.
I'm tossing this out more as a conversation starter than anything else. But it does seem as if we need to agree on something, and ideally it would be worldwide agreement so that the rules are clear and well-known no matter where you are.
These work for me, with the possible exception of routine indoor masking in public places. I hope this measure doesn't go on indefinitely, for several more years or longer. It's rather dreary. Even in China, the observance of indoor masking is sporadic, and tends to drop off pretty quickly after an outbreak. And this is in a supposedly "zero tolerance" society, not one that has come to terms with coexisting with SARS-CoV-2.
They don't mask inside because they have zero tolerance. They stamp it out so no one needs to wear masks
There's lots of indoor masking in China. It's just consistent or universal.
*not* consistent or universal.
If you are vaccinated then you probably won’t die or have serious illness, But you can still get sick. If you don’t feel well, stay home from work and away from people generally (like you would with any bad cold or flu ). And if you can’t afford the time off then you’re going to be that crappy person who gets everyone around you sick. Maybe you put some unvaccinated or more vulnerable person in the hospital. It’s going to happen. It happens now.
And that’s it. When there is an outbreak and lots of people are sick, staff shortages may slow down or close businesses until it passes. Same with schools. My employer sent a message yesterday advising to minimize time onsite. The plant will keep running and I’ll go in if necessary, but otherwise I work from home. Production operators obviously cannot do that but I’m an engineer and can.
Every once in a while a big retail store will close or reduce hours for a time. This is ok. It’s time to accept this as the new normal and stop worrying about it. I guess some marginally profitable businesses might fail. Oh well. Good luck!
Rereading Mr. Drum’s list, I must say that I find international leisure travelers to be like that crappy person who goes to work sick and infects all their coworkers. Omicron is a gift to the world from these selfish son of a bitches.
International (and domestic) travellers should be required to follow the rules (proof of vaccination, covid tests, maybe in some cases quarantines, and so forth). But if A) the rules are effective and B) they're enforced, I see no problem with travel. It's one of life's great joys. The idea is to beat the pandemic. Not let it beat us.
I realize I’m out of the mainstream With this view, but we had all those things in place and still ended up with the current insane worst outbreak to date. So I guess we’re all just going to accept that.
I also realize we will never institute a meaning travel restriction so that’s that. I’ll still throw shade at the tourists.
I’m supposed to meet with a coworker who has been in Mexico all week. I guess we’ll see if he makes it back ok.
Why? Now that there’s vaccines there’s no reason not to travel. Even in summer/fall of 2020 many people were traveling. We were traveling regularly that summer for my daughter’s lacrosse tournaments.
In other news, Irvine California announced today it had decided to become part of Florida.
Can they do that??
More importantly, do they think they can?
Kevin says : (Or should we bow to reality and give up on masks entirely?)
Which reality is that? Not the scientific reality that masks reduce the likelihood of infection by an order of magnitude or two.
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/49/e2110117118
Must be the reality that a lot of people resist doing the right thing. Why on earth should we bow to that reality? We don't repeal speeding laws or tax-fraud laws because in reality a lot of people ignore them.
I don't get it.
Good points. I get a lot of arguments against control of firearms by my acquaintances who are gun nuts, to the effect that people will just break those laws. And if they can't buy a gun, they'll just steal one, so controls on sales are pointless.
Of course, laws don't STOP criminal acts. But they do impose penalties, if you do the crime, get caught and are convicted (the hardest part). This will hopefully dissuade some people from doing those things ... or doing them again. It will also lock up or otherwise affect the perpetrators, taking them momentarily off the map.
I like to point out that people keep murdering one another, in spite of it being illegal, and give the whole argument in para 2. But they're Republicans. They can't hear anything that isn't orthodox.
My counter argument to those people is to ask them if they lock the doors to their car.
Same arguments could be used against pretty much any kind of law enforcement since criminals will always get away with stuff. So defund the police.
I don't see why a group of people who havr been posturing from a position of fear and loathing for the past 2 years get to set the agenda here. It's beyond arrogant.
Let's set the record straight- you've gotten nothing right for the duration of the pandemic. You weren't right about masks, schools, asymptomatic spread, vaccine creation, testing... anything. The only thing you did knida sort of right was post regular case data, which you misinterpreted constantly. Now, you're an admitted proponent of bullying people about vaccines after being a bully about masks.
As to the substance of your 4 primary proposals- no deal. All non-starters. We have no idea where this thing is going, and if we end up with another seasonal cold strain (which is what most responsible epidemiologists are expecting now), then these "counter measures" you propose are patently absurd.
Further, I have no trust in your estimation of what constitutes an emergency and the past 2 years give copious evidence for that position.
The best thing you can do is simply sit down and be quiet at this point.
Literally everything you said is wrong. If I were being charitable I might give you the school shut downs but the pro mask, pro vaccine crowd has been on the side of science and objective reality. The non-maskers, non-vaxxers have proven to be completely wrong in every instance and your selfish actions have prolonged the pandemic for everyone else
...if we end up with another seasonal cold strain (which is what most responsible epidemiologists are expecting now), then these "counter measures" you propose are patently absurd.
Well sure, if what we now call Covid19 eventually degrades into a seasonal cold, pretty obviously we won't need to do these kinds of things. I'm pretty confident Kevin has broached these ideas for dealing with covid over the longer term, though, to the extent or as long as it continues to be highly dangerous.
It's those like you who seem determined to defy medical science, reasonable government public-health policies at local, state, & federal levels. You are obstinate in denying both facts & common sense.
And on January 15th, my state will be governed by a troika of those who make claims such as yours - as we are suffering an increase in COVID-19, in large part due to non-compliance with government & business owners' policies.
And when you present your own views, you have no excuse for dishonesty & rudeness.
The crucial thing that’s not on Kevin’s list is a willingness to act for the common good. It’s been glaringly obvious for some time now that society cannot return to even a semblance of normality without excluding those who are unvaccinated for idiosyncratic reasons. Unless we’re simply willing to live like this forever to placate a tiny (but vocal and powerful minority), those who are voluntarily unvaccinated must be excluded from all non-essential activities.
If you exclude those people from ordinary activities, those activities will become significantly safer because the prevalence of the virus will be much lower. If you are on an airplane with unvaccinated (and potentially contagious) people, you are essentially marinating in the virus. No matter how good the air conditioning is, you’re not safe on the plane if you’re trapped there with the virus floating around.
If restaurants used vaccine passports (and if staff were required to be vaccinated), the workers wouldn’t need to wear masks and the diners could feel safe. Office buildings could reopen without masks, stores could reopen without masks, and people could feel safe. Schools could reopen without masks; staff and students would be safe, life could slowly return to normal.
But without vaccine passports, the status quo will continue until the virus either burns itself out or a new variant develops that can escape the vaccines. We can either bow down to these assholes and live life how they want or we can simply exclude them from all non-essential activities and live life as it was before the pandemic. It’s a very simple choice but it is a choice that needs to be made by the Democratic Party and ruthlessly enforced all the way down the line.
It’s a very simple choice but it is a choice that needs to be made by the Democratic Party
It doesn't matter much what the Democratic Party decides if the Republican Supreme Court stops them from imposing vaccine mandates. The early reporting on the the case currently before the court doesn't sound promising.
I think it's going to be up to civil society, mainly the business community. For instance Citigroup has just announced it's terminating unvaccinated employees. We need a lot more of that.
If the Supreme Court says the President can’t order vaccine mandates (which seems to be going to happen) and says it’s up to the States, then what’s to stop blue states from imposing vaccine mandates/passports?
Republican governors? (Mass, for instance).
I think its going to be a mixed decision
Biden tried to push this through OSHA, but the problem with this is the fact that OSHA rules are usually written in other peoples' blood. In other words - they have reams of data to JUSTIFY the new regulations. With COVID we have 2 years worth of data.
The other problem is one of abating the hazard - the employer has to CORRECT the hazard. This is nearly impossible with COVID because a person can bring it in from HOME with them. Omicron reproduces so quickly that you can be tested negative in the morning and be positive by the time you leave work
The THIRD reason is this. The government right now is paying for just about everything. Insurance companies WANTED OSHA's help in promulgating work place regulations because they were paying out too much in compensation for lost wages, injuries and lawsuits. They have only been minimally involved with COVID.
So, I see them allowing for the mandate for all people paid by the Federal government. This includes the armed forces. They will NOT reject in its entirety the mandate for private section employees but they will require OSHA to keep statistics on it so they can revisit this in the future. They will toss the blue states a bone and allow THEM to mandate what they want.
In other words NOTHING will happen
What will be interesting is how SCOTUS handles international travel. This is strictly the purview of the federal government. Biden could really wield that type of power like a bludgeon against DeSantis and Abbot if he were allowed to mandate vaccines on any form of international travel.
Keep in mind that OSHA and EPA were republican programs. Employers WANT their employees safe and working.
But when it comes to heating and cooling ventilation systems? WE have spent half a century making our buildings as tight as possible, as insulated as possible and as energy efficient as possible to save precious dollars from going to ME countries.
We will NOT be able to change that any time soon. It's a great thought. It's just not happening.
Blue states can indeed do as you suggest. Which means the US will continue to lack an effective national response. And unfortunately, lacking internal borders, this regionalized approach will harm the pro-science regions.
Made an account just to say this because this post is patently ridiculous
Nothing less than absolutely normal is going to tenable (politically or otherwise). Besides maybe thinking about getting a booster ever couple years, I can’t imagine doing anything further. To think that any of the pandemic countermeasures is going to be adapted to something permanent is laughable. I sure hope no one is whispering this in Biden’s ear because this is surely political suicide. I know I wouldn’t be able to stand it
We maybe spend another 12 months-ish seeing if we can whip it for good and if not we call it done and go back to normal. We tried (really hard) and if we lose then that’s that
"We tried (really hard)..."
Unfortunately, we didn't. The majority of conservatives didn't try at all. A large number of liberals talked the talk but didn't fully walk the walk. Only a small minority of people tried really hard and did everything they could to help stop the spread of the virus.
So, yes, sooner rather than later we're just going to stop with counter measures and call it a day. It won't be because we tried and failed, it will be because we'll never convince the idiots and even the most responsible people will eventually tire of taking the necessary precautions.
In terms of the national consciousness, Covid far overperformed. It’s been 2 years now. Can you imagine anything else sucking up the lion’s share of national attention for 2 years? All the money and attention paid only to tell people “this is forever”. Sure some people half assed it, but we got as much collective effort put in as we were ever going to get
The right course of action is to say “we have three good vaccines and a good treatment in the works, take it if you like and you’ll probably be fine.” Then toss our masks in the trash along with all the rest and forget about it. They can pump out a new booster every once in a while for new variants maybe
I have never voted Republican in my life (and never will after the past few years) but if they promise to declare victory over COVID they will win in a landslide. Normal people (NOT just Trumpies) are sick of it
Did you actually read the post? Kevin walked back/softened the regular masking idea. And would you seriously not get a regular covid shot if that dramatically decreased your odds of getting killed by covid? I mean, people have been getting regular flu shots for decades. And if you have had a shot, how much extra trouble would it be to, you know, show the guy at the stadium entrance proof of this?
I've been something of a skeptic of the "covid changes everything meme" but even I don't believe things will completely revert to the pre-pandemic norm. Things didn't go back to the pre-World War 2 norm, either, after VJ day. History marches on.
I still get searched every time I fly too. And walking your loved one to the gate to see them off or waiting at the gate to welcome them is also a thing of the past. I don’t see people clamoring to bring their bottle of water through the checkpoints either.
I’ve gotten the first round. If they made a new one tailored for a new variant I would. I’m young enough that my chances of dying are 0 but if I’m going to spread it whether I’m boosted or not then I don’t see the point really
At a certain point just let people be antivax. I think they’re really dumb but I view them like gun nuts: just so not worth the trouble of fighting it out. Mostly, they’re hurting themselves, and tend to have the most close contact with other antivaxxers. Who cares if they die by their own hand. From a realpolitik point of view too, it’s smartest to just let them kill themselves
No comparison between COVID and WW2. We’ve been through countless pandemics before; there’s only one WW2. I’ve just got to ask, what’s so different between previous flu pandemics and COVID that makes this permanent? There have been deadlier pandemics, and yet here we are. It’s just getting stupid at this point. Let’s just move on
I’ve just got to ask, what’s so different between previous flu pandemics and COVID that makes this permanent?
Those went away. This one hasn't yet. Not sure why you keep banging on about this being "permanent." Approximately no one in the scientific community believes our species is going to be permanently dogged by a deadly pandemic. With respect, you're engaging in muddled thinking: you seem to want to move beyond the crisis, and that's precisely the topic Kevin's post is raising. Only, you want that "moving beyond" to consist, of...doing nothing?
No comparison between COVID and WW2.
I've just made one: both that war and the current pandemic are global events certain to have long term effects.
I’m young enough that my chances of dying are 0
Literally no human being can truthfully say that. Have a nice day.
Covid and the Flu are not similar. Go do your research. Covid is both far more transmissible than the flu and far more deadly.
You're ignoring hospital utilization. We can't return to normal until hospital utilization returns to normal.
"Let's just move on"
Yes, we've done that multiple times after each time the hospitalization rate has dropped back to about a normal flu-season rate. Then the hospitalization rate rises, and we have to stop moving on.
Writing as a teacher and parent of students, one thing that has been weird and disturbing is the absence of any benchmark about when it would be appropriate to close schools -- so I'm happy to see you attempt to put a number on it.
For reference we've had a number of schools in Rhode Island this week with over 20% positivity when all students with permission were tested (one of these was reported in the Globe, the other I know because my wife is an admin at the school). These also reflect the test positivity rate of the community as a whole in this city.
They did end up closing schools in this district for a few days (so far), but there is emphatically no standard for prevalence. I believe there used to be but this rule was among those suddenly scrapped (with contact tracing, etc).
Rhode Island's previous peak was around 1,500 cases a day. If we could just stay out of school for the couple weeks it will probably take to get back to that point, I'd feel a lot better. If we don't get back to that point within the month, we're in very deep doo doo indeed.
(previous high was around 1,500, now we're around 5,000 cases/day)
This shouldn't be a theoretical argument. Japan, among a few other countries, has kept covid very low without destroying its economy. There is debate about whether schools needed to be shut down, but because of other measures the infection rate among teachers and staff is very low and Japan does not face the problem of inadequate staffing that the US now does. Whether people in the US would put up with what they do in Japan is another question.
But why is it assumed that covid-19 will be a perpetual threat? Again you don't have to rely on theory. Have we been taking all sorts of precautions against the Spanish flu since 1919? Many other epidemics have come and gone without being a permanent threat. We do have to have periodic vaccinations for a number of things, such as MMR and smallpox, but the wingnut right has not been waging war against these (the campaign against MMR vaccine was not against the vaccine itself, it was against the preservative).
From history it seems likely that we will be back to normal within a few years, without need for extraordinary measures. What should be done, however, is prepare for future pandemics by funding the production and distribution apparatus for vaccines and other materials. This can't be left up to the free market jumping when things get really serious and there is big money to be made.
But why is it assumed that covid-19 will be a perpetual threat
No one's assuming covid will be a "perpetual" threat. But there's no guarantee the pandemic will have passed by next year. Or the year after. What if we've got three more years of this? Or five?
We're going to need to learn to live with it.*
(*It's more accurate to write "continue to learn to live with it" because we've gradually been learning to live with it for while now.)
Have we been taking all sorts of precautions against the Spanish flu since 1919?
Yes, we have and in other places in the world it went through their populations without THEM passing it back and forth from country to country.
In 1918 international travel was a novelty and the population was far lower. (Today just under 8B in 1918 it was estimated to be about 1.6B to 1.7B). We are fatter, and more out of shape while consuming foods that are really bad for us - causing US to have immuno-compromising diseases.
Nobody should be comparing now to 1918. The world has changed, WE have changed and the virus is still changing
Buy out all the intellectual property rights to the vaccines that we gave away and then repeal Bayh-Dole and every other law like it so that government funded research is in the public domain at least in the US. We can put pressure on our "partners" as well as China and India and work out reciprocal agreements to do the same thing. Viruses don't respect national borders.
What, exactly, is the benefit of this?
Do you think production of vaccines is limited because pharma companies are refusing to use available manufacturing capcity? Or because there is not enough manufacturing capacity?
The 4 recommendations:
1) Vaxxed & boosted & re-boosted as needed: I think this should be a no-brainer as long as COVID is killing 50,000+ people a year. Unfortunately, the Republican party will sabotage this.
2) Masks: this is going to be a harder sell. Here in DC, compliance for masking indoors is about 100%. But in mid-town Pennsylvania it was near zero percent, and not great in middle Massachusetts or even across the river in Virginia. So my guess is that this will always be region-specific.
3) Proof of vaccination: I like this idea (it helps with recommendation 1). I don't know how much of a pain it will be, as my only experience with vaccination-proof events is ones where you email your proof beforehand. Do I keep my vax card in my wallet, and show it to bouncers like proof of age? How annoying will that be to the average person?
4) School threshold: this seems like a reasonable idea - come up with a quantitative number. But in Maryland, they tried setting the threshold at 5%, and then abandoned it when too many schools crossed that number: https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/01/06/montgomery-county-schools-rising-covid-cases/
RE 3) Proof of vaccination... I can only speak for my state of California, but I've attended a couple of museum and live theatrical performances in the last several months and the QR code that can be generated from the state Digital COVID-19 Vaccine Record website which I store on my phone (either in Photos or my Apple Wallet) has been really easy to use. It requires and extra person at the entry whose job it is to check Vaccine status before you approach the ticket taker. The also accept a photo of your CDC vaccine card. What would be great is if we had a national registry and an internationally accepted standard. Doesn't seem too difficult, if California can set this up, why not nationally?
Re: Do I keep my vax card in my wallet, and show it to bouncers like proof of age? How annoying will that be to the average person?
Very annoying I'll guess. I do have have a picture on my vax card stored on my phone however.
Living in Georgia, I have a much lower estimation of what Democrats can achieve in the time the US has left until the Republicans take over.
Concentration should be on managing the willfully non-vaccinated as much as possible to keep the current crises we are having in our hospitals to a minimum. Combine that with federal advertising of death-bed recantations by the anti-vax and a pull-no-punches detailing of the pain and suffering the non-vaccinated endure both before death and long Covid effects.
Meanwhile, keep civic-minded citizens aware of ways to lower their susceptibility to Covid and the current threat level.
That may be all they can do.
The only thing I would add is to continue working hard on drugs to mitigate the effects of Covid. If you get it, it should be easy to contact your Dr. and get a prescription. I think that would be the best bet on getting things back to a semblance of normal. Over the years, Also, I think the vaccine will lose its political resistance and more people will get vaccinated. I expect that will take a few years, unfortunately.
We also need better testing. Right now drugs need to be administered quickly after you get sick so you need to be able to determine if you are sick.
Yes. It could be that in the future when we get the sniffles or feel crappy we immediately reach for the easy to use test to determine if our illness is Covid, and if it is be able to get mitigating drugs quickly and easily and cheaply. That, along with yearly vaccines might be our future.
Just wishing that Biden could demand & say what Macron has; France has a passport requirement & he sounds as if won't back down, even if he'll decide not to run for re-election as a result of the backlash.
I agree with you it would be nice if America could do what France could do. But we can't. Among other problems, our federal courts have already shown they cannot resist the urge to meddle in public health. Also, I'd be very surprised indeed if Macon's internal pollsing doesn't show he's got a majority of the French with him on his "get tough" measures. Western Europe as a whole is apparently losing patience with the anti-vax lunacy, and is rapidly implementing get-tough policies. I'd like to think this dynamic would influence our Supreme Court: that they'd see what's going on elsewhere and realize it would be a bad idea to allow the US to become an island of deadly, anti-vax "freedumb" — but I doubt I'll get my wish.
I think we should reduce international travel in general. At least flying.
Transitioning to an endemic virus is going to be very hard. For many of us, our brains have been trained to fear SARS-CoV-2 and any step towards normalcy will be instantly met with disdain and anger.
In particular however, because almost all of the experts and leaders have repeatedly presented the one true path out of the pandemic, most everyone has rejected and ignored all other paths out of the pandemic.
Creating benchmarks helps officials justify their actions amid legal challenges and vocal opposition, but they're unresponsive to a virus that has little resemblance to the one that the benchmarks originally targeted.
This inflexibility is why we struggle.
The virus will probably change in 6 months, rewriting all the rules. Again. Maybe next time it will be as contagious as Omicron, ignore all existing vaccines, and be super deadly? Maybe it will get even milder? Who knows?
The single best plan we can make is to plan to be flexible, and not let extreme fatigue and QAnon whiners dictate our behavior.
I believe it was a British Bobby who said, in fall of 2020 I think, "we could have pubs open or schools open, but not both."
Masking at bars and restaurants won't last--though wait staff might want to wear the good ones, i.e. N95, to protect themselves. Of course, that's where you see super spreading events.. Changes in ventilation and design--basically sit each group in a hood with air being filtered and recirculated.
Vaccines for kids and boosters for elderly. For everyone else, boosters optional unless a particularly virulent strain pops up. Expect covid waves, maybe seasonal, treated like a bad cold.
Masking at schools? I lot of parent liked the fact that colds/flu/asthma were way down--even with cloth masks.
Parents really hate school closures. Once vaccination policies are in place, the issue will be moot.
As the immunologist said
(And, to be clear, infections are still never something to be sought out.)
Vaccine effectiveness wanes too quickly. As stated before WE ALLOWED the vaccine manufacturers to NOT make a DELTA specific vaccine.
Instead we let our political leanings determine whether to get vaccinated against Wuhan and Alpha variants OR take it on the chin.
Now we are hoping against hope that we can see a vaccine against ALL forms of covid. Preferably from Walter Reed researchers, but at this point I'd take anything if it works. I don't mind annual flu shots. But because of masks, hand washing, social distancing over the last two years I have only had COVID. No colds nor flu.
Thats pretty damned good.
Short of universal healthcare, I sure wish they'd make *all* vaccines free. That'd go a long ways towards vaccinating everyone for a whole variety of things.
I've gotten an annual flu shot since 2006. I have no problem with an annual Covid shot. The Omicron variant does seem to be sufficiently different that the vaccine does not protect against it (I had it despite being vaccinated-- and even having a earlier strain of Covid in late 2020) so just like the flu each year we'll probably face regular new strains of this.
Also, close schools when there's not enough healthy staff. This might be a problem for the next few weeks.
Schools close at 2-3%?
FWIW, my school is at 6-8% now and the administration just started sports up after a week off for Omicron. And that's in Massachusetts.
It's pretty disappointing to see low vax rates for my school coupled with this. We're likely to see some kids in the hospital soon, maybe in the ICU and maybe dead at this rate.
Surely a lot depends on what Trump Republicans do? Say they take the House and the presidency in '24 with promises to 'restore normalcy'. That might mean a DeSantis-type agenda that makes it illegal for anybody to require vaccines, or masks, or testing. After four years of that, the only way a Democratic administration would even consider reintroducing those kinds of measures would be the outbreak of another massive, deadly pandemic. Otherwise COVID will have become another common cause of sickness and death that people vaguely hope "medical science" will one day find a cure for.
Personally, I would be fine with yearly boosters, N95s required on planes and public transit, different sick-leave policies, *maybe* stricter measures tied to reporting systems if I felt sure they wouldn’t be switching on and off a hundred times a year …
… but I'm a hard no on masking overall. I hate the things. They're a major drag on social interaction, so I'd want exceptions for workplaces, nightspots, restaurants, and schools. But once you knock those off, what's left? Stores? Seems unfair to the guy who has to work an 8-hour shift at the deli counter.
As to what's politically feasible … uh, none of it? Maybe vax requirements? I live in a deep blue area (NYC), and the only thing I ever hear is that people are desperate to get rid of these rules. Folks are passionate about following and enforcing them *now* because they believe that will end the pandemic sooner; the feeling is, the stricter we are about mandates, the quicker this will all be over. If leaders go public with the message that it may *never* be over and that mandates and incidence-triggered closures are effectively indefinite … man, I don't even know what would happen.
I have to admit, I'm trying to hold back a bit because I want to appear reasonable. But to be honest, the status quo you're proposing here fills me with something close to panic. I think I would almost rather die than live a world where I had to wear a respirator for a good chunk of the day, display proof of my medical status all the time, worry about constant school and business closures, abandon the joys of travel, etc.
There's something surreal to me about this whole conversation. Have you seen what compliance is like out there? Haven't other pandemics ended without resulting in permanent restrictions? I see a lot of people here making comparisons to the 1918 influenza outbreak. I mean, that was a much more serious crisis, and a few years later you had the roaring twenties, right?
"I see a lot of people here making comparisons to the 1918 influenza outbreak. I mean, that was a much more serious crisis, and a few years later you had the roaring twenties, right?"
The world changed
estimated population in 1918 was 1.8B today close to 8B
residing in urban areas? 1918 - <30% today its 56%
Today we live in more crowded conditions and we can travel MUCH faster than we could in 1918
The new variant discovered in France was from people traveling FROIM Cameroon. Tested negative prior to leaving. Tested positive in France. LESS than 24 hours separated the tests.
Couldn't do that back in 1918
Because of this inter-connectivity this has got to be a shared effort.
I hope the Japanese researchers are able to get a "generic" coronavirus vaccine on the marker soon. This vaccine I hope does not have to have special handling instructions so that the world can get vaccinated quickly
One thing that should be done, is that people stay home when they're really sick and wear a mask if they think they may be coming down with something.
This is done routinely in Asian countries, but here in the US I guess we don't care about others if it inconveniences us at all.
I thought it was clear enough that when Kevin said "bow to reality " it was the practical political reality of what is possible to get the American public to accept.
Even if you firmly believe you are right, what good does it accomplish to continually push for policies that clearly will be rejected by the American public on the streets in non compliance. And at the ballot box throwing out the party which is trying to force policies they abhor on them .
"Living with Covid" = getting to a point where our hospitals are not continually slammed with actute Covid patients. We can't just "live" with a disease that's constantly forcing our health care systems to the brink of collapse.
That's either going to require universal, or near-universal vaccination -- which ain't going to happen, because, you know: "'Muh Freedumbs!" -- or some kind of policy that allows hospitals and insurers to treat declining a Covid vaccine like the infamous preexisting health conditions of old. But that's opening up a whole can of worms that we don't even want to contemplate. So yeah. I have no idea how we're going to beat this thing unless it's just to wait for all the holdouts to eventually die or get vaccinated. Who knows how long that will be.
Going back to normal precisely means ignoring Covid and living our lives the way we used to. Except that, "living our lives the way we used to" requires that ICU utilization rates fall back to what they were before 2020. Which can be done either by reducing sickness or by increasing ICU space.
Every time we start filling up ICUs rapidly, we implement measures to slow the spread of covid. When the ICU utilizations starts to fall, we remove those measures. And there is no political will to do otherwise.
In 2018-2019, there were 380,000 flu related hospitalizations in the U.S. We will return to "normal" when we get covid hospitalizations down to that rate.
And there's really only one way to reduce the hospitalization rate: increase immunity. It looks likely that the current wave of covid will spread through most of the remaining unimmunized population during the early part of this year. Mask mandates and other restrictions will be removed as the case rates fall, and they won't be put back in place this year since there won't be anywhere near as many unimmunized this summer as their were last summer.
Barring the virus mutating in a way where it both strongly evades existing immunization while keeping a high level of transmissibility and hospitalization, we will "return to normal" this spring.
It seems at this point like vaccination is very protective against severe illness, but not very protective against mild COVID, or against transmission.
That influence my list: I think vaccination requirements--for anything--are hard to justify if vaccines don't protect others.
My suggestion: just encourage vaccination, and a general norm of "wear a mask if you are even slightly ill and need to be in public."
Pingback: Living With Covid: Continuing the Conversation - Lawyers, Guns & Money
Pingback: Living With Covid: Continuing the Conversation | Nuclear Diner