Before Trump was elected, I figured there were a a range of possibilities if he won.
- On one end: he's a blowhard. He says lots of stuff he never follows up on.
- On the other end: He's dead serious this time. He's going to deport millions; put tariffs on everyone; take a sledgehammer to DEI; and nominate lunatics to his cabinet. It would be a bloodbath, but the courts and Republicans in the Senate would rein in the worst of it.
But it's been so much worse—though not on stuff he ran on. Deportations have been low and he's backed off on a bunch of tariffs. But DEI has turned into a jihad against anything that so much as mentions Black accomplishment—or women or Hispanics or anything else. USAID has been demolished for no reason and the medical research community is being torn to pieces. The entire federal workforce is being given a haircut with a blowtorch, with no apparent rhyme or reason. Elon Musk is tearing through federal agencies doing God knows what—he won't tell anyone. The righteous prosecution of a corrupt mayor has been pulled over protest as long as the mayor cooperates on deportations.
Foreign affairs is no better. Ukraine has refused Trump's demand for half its mineral wealth. Meanwhile Trump is busy punishing the AP for refusing to call the Gulf of Mexico the absurd Gulf of America. Trump is pursuing random tariffs that make no sense, primarily on our allies. And he continues to make periodic threats against Greenland, Panama, and, Canada.
It's governance gone mad, with no explanation or apparent reason. And we have 205 more weeks of it.
“It's governance gone mad, with no explanation or apparent reason.”
….like no one has ever seen before…
Honestly, it's what I expected to happen the first time around. I was surprised the first term wasn't worse. Of course, that doesn't make this any easier to take.
The Republican party was not subjugated yet the first time.
It’s amazing to read you today! Thanks for the graph.
Some (very very important) things are indeed worse. Terrifyingly so.
But there is one thing that is just so welcome in these hard times: Kevin is back! With a chart! For a moment at least, all is well in the world. I'll take it.
I wonder how long it will be before we all start going after him for one or another misguided post?
My heart is glad to hear from the fiery Kevin we all know and love. I hope this means he is feeling better.
Republicans have turned out to be even more cowardly than even I thought. I thought they would at least try to keep their own power. As it turns out they are willing to support him in even his most lunatic choices and pronouncements.
What a bunch of pathetic weasels.
(And from the fact that you are posting today I assume you are doing better today. Yea!)
"Quislings" is the term. We need to bring it back, to keep the idea alive in our national consciousness.
+100
No more demonizing innocent wildlife.
Kevin forgot to mention America and Russia are going to meet in Saudi Arabia - without Ukraine - to decide how to end the Ukraine War, after a bunch of administration officials spent a few days in Europe telling governments they can take NATO and shove it.
Munich was too much of a dead giveaway.
Fitting place to do that, though, no?
Peace in our time amirite?
Kevin forgot to mention America and Russia are going to meet in Saudi Arabia - without Ukraine - to decide how to end the Ukraine War...
And without the Europeans! No UK, no France, no Germany. It's madness.
Xi Jinping can't believe his luck.
Are they gonna hold that conference in Yalta?
Would be fitting, wouldn't it?
Of course, the US has absolutely no say in how the war ends, since most of the EU has decided to back Zelenskyy.
This is the thin reed on which my hope hangs: Europe will prove harder to defeat than the US.
Yes. They have plenty of experience dealing with soulless sociopaths and the people who support this.
Ah, a graph and political commentary. So wonderful to see.
He's back!!!
Glad to see you're feeling good enough to post!
Bummer about another 205 weeks of hardcore crazy 🙂
Hi Kevin, welcome back.
Trump is a mob boss, overtly extorting Eric Adams, Ukraine, Canada, Panama and the like. He is the ultimate Manchurian candidate and traitor, selling out our country to our mortal enemies. Elon, like Putin, has something on Trump, but what it is we may never find out. Elon's incels are copying the internal files of our government, maybe for some nefarious AI experiment.
Meanwhile, babies are freezing to death, while war criminal Bibi and Trump decide on condo layouts on Gaza's beaches.
Let us know if the immune system therapy is working. Best wishes!
The developments are appalling.
That you're up enough to blog about these appalling developments, I'm profoundly grateful for.
Woohoo! Well enough to post!
205 weeks to go is a pretty sobering number. But team Trump can't control the nation's agenda and attention for that long... Right?
Kevin, at the moment I don’t know which to be most concerned about. I am shocked to read you today and yet pleased to read our real anxieties as laid out by you. Thank you.
Get well Kevin.
Good post (as always). I hope that means that you're feeling better and on the mend. BTW, Jake Broe had a good video today on those topics, with some hope offered at the end: https://youtu.be/3wDrCIVVFM4 (You can set the playback speed to 1.25x or 1.5x and clearly follow the video.)
Trump posted the following comment on his social media:
"He who saves his Country does not violate any Law."
This is looking very bad.
Kevin - good to see a post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"He who saves his Country does not violate any Law," Trump, a Republican, proclaimed on his Truth Social network. The White House did not respond to a request for more details.
The phrase, attributed to the French military leader who created the Napoleonic Code of civil law in 1804 before declaring himself emperor, drew immediate criticism from Democrats."
O goodie. Can't wait for the coronation.
Personally, I've always thought that was his original vision of J6 -- the mob would sweep into the Capitol, Pence would "do what should have been done," and trump would then be carried on the mob's shoulders, flags flying, from the White House into the Capitol, and there declare His will. A caricature spectacle, which is how he thinks.
And one reason he's being so vicious and destructive now is pure resentment that he was denied this scene.
He's less powerful on most of the things he wants to get done, except for DEI, s that's why he's going all in on that. I mean he is ultimately still trying to go all in on the other stuff, but say directing a government website to delete pages is easier to get done and less likely to instantly generate a court case.
(Also, remember: anti-DEI sentiment is just white supremacy trying to hide its face)
Great to see you back and feisty!
It’s pandemonium; the abode of all demons. It’s Trump and Musk exacting revenge on their enemies; Trump repaying his favorites of the moment (RFK, jr., e.g.); Musk trying to destroy agencies that might constrain his businesses or his avarice; Russell Vought and others busily implementing Project 2025; Trump’s favorite teevee personalities demonstrating their unfitness for their positions; White ‘Christian’ nationalists and Catholic integralists pursuing their theocratic dream. It’s entirely incoherent and chaotic; Trump seems at times befuddled by it all, at other times acting like he was elected Emperor of Earth — e.g. the Europeans must police the cease-fire in Ukraine, when it is negotiated without them, and probably without the Ukrainians. Besides the revenge, another Trump obsession seems to be carving up the planet, along with Xi and Putin, into spheres of influence. Which is truly mad, because he doesn’t even seem in control of his underlings. He does have the Congressional Republicans under his thumb, for now. We’ll see if they will back the destruction when it starts to hurt their constituents.
Republican policies have been hurting their constituents for decades. So far there's been no price to be paid. I don't know why anyone would expect that to change.
Fuck cancer. Fuck pneumonia. Vive les stats !
+1
+2
0r, should I say deux
+3
or should I say, "a menage a trois"?
wait.....
Why not use the Spanish Term for the body of water off of our south central states?
Trump would love it!!!!!
"golfo de méxico"
It's got the word "golf" in it !!!!!!!
Or am I all wet?
Great to see a post! I hope it is as much or more of you feeling better today than it is just too much of Trump to stay silent!
May tomorrow bring more feeling better!
I’ve never been more happy to see such a depressing post!
Governance gone mad for no reason? Au contraire!!! There's a very good reason: Elect a madman and you get madness.
Hope this signifies you're on the mend!!
My take ten months ago:
(1) Many people were seriously underestimating the chances we'd descend into at least a soft form of authoritarianism if Trump won.
My take a few days after the election:
(1) We'll get tons of policy awfulness. (2) Our democratic norms will absolutely be eroded. (3) Not much chance of an actual descent into authoritarianism, mainly because it was the GOP that won a fair and clean election (and thus, for at least one cycle, they're cool with democracy! Funny, that.).
My take now:
(1) Policy awfulness is worse, much worse, perhaps, than I had feared. (2) Democratic norms aren't being eroded but eviscerated. (3) We're not there yet, and we may not get there, but there's obviously a perfectly plausible chance that yes, we will descend into at least soft authoritarianism (Orbanism).*
Kevin: It's great to have you back writing. Please don't compromise the time you need for rest on behalf of all of us. Then again, I don't want to be a patronizing jerk (you're an adult!), so, write all you want. Maybe it helps with your recovery? I'm truly grateful you're feeling better. We all are.
*I know there's some disagreement on this. And it's obvious the regime (please, let's not dignify them by using the term "administration") is at minimum slow-footing judicial rulings that go against them. To me the acid test is: do we see open defiance of a black and white court order, especially an order by the Supreme Court? If that happens people will cry "constitutional crisis" and, while they'd not be wrong, I think for all intents and purposes that constitutes a coup.
"..we will descend into at least soft authoritarianism (Orbanism).*"
As optimist as ever.
Orban doesn't use the "Hungarian FBI" (whatever that is) to kill opponents (as far as I know).
If Trump is still reasonably healthy in the end of 2027, that what he will do.
Read:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/path-american-authoritarianism-trump
Also a little optimist.
Surprising mentions Putin and Russia only to say that Putin has 80% approval rate, even Putin is clearly the model that trump tries to emulate.
As optimist as ever.
What part of "policy awfulness combined with the evisceration of democratic norms combined with the possibility of becoming an authoritarian state" do you find particularly optimistic? We're in a crisis. There's no doubt about it. But unlike you I don't assume American democracy is done for.
Your protests to the contrary, we're not an authoritarian state yet. We're seeing trenchant critiques by numerous prominent people and institutions, including normally right-wing stallworts like the Wall Street Journal; we've seen a veritable scandal at DOJ as actual Federalist Society lawyers have quit rather than obey obviously corrupt orders; we've seen lawsuit after lawsuit filed, with multiple decisions going against the administration (you may have noticed birthright citizenship is still the law of the land); we've seen a growing freakout in red states over cuts that are translating into lost jobs—and growing concern about the same even among Republicans in Congress; we've seen a growing number of protests; we're seeing dismal approval ratings for Trump per all the polling and growing concern on Wall Street at the volatility and chaos unleashed by DOGE.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2025/02/14/doge-is-rocking-washington-wall-street-not-so-much-00204296
Yes, the situation is dangerous, but I prefer to look at all the evidence, and some of it suggests a growing pushback against the regime. And remember, we're only four weeks into the second Trump era. It's not surprising that, given the shock and awe tactics employed by this regime that it's taken some time for the Resistance to get its bearings.
What's your suggestion, pretend none of it matters? Resign ourselves to an inevitable, successful MAGA coup? I believe a coup is possible, but I don't believe it's inevitable. But Trump sure as hell would like you to think it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8QLgLfqh6s&ab_channel=TheEzraKleinShow
"What part of "policy awfulness combined with the evisceration of democratic norms combined with the possibility of becoming an authoritarian state" do you find particularly optimistic? "
I actually quoted the specific bit I objected to, here again:
"..we will descend into at least soft authoritarianism (Orbanism).*"
It is not going to be soft.
"Your protests to the contrary, we're not an authoritarian state yet. "
That is dishonest.
I didn't protest that it is already authoritarian, I explicitly mentioned the end of 2027 as the time when Trump will go really violent (to eliminate democractic candidates).
It is not going to be soft.
Yes, it will be soft authoritarianism if it comes to that (which I think on balance is more unlikely than not). Orbanism is far more likely than Hitlerism. There's no need to go for the latter in a country like the US: the tools at the regime's disposal are far more sophisticated than what what was available to Hitler or Franco, and excessive violence is bad for business.
I didn't protest that it is already authoritarian
Good. Then we agree on something!
One thing I didn't really expect was Musk as co-president. Sure I expected him to have Trump's ear but didn't think he'd be physically in there directing policy like he has. This admin has so far confirmed at least 2 things for me:
1) Trump is delusional. Yes, he lies a lot to keep the rubes enraged. But he also is immersed in a world that is just utterly disconnected from reality.
2) The Musk-Genius myth is fully destroyed. That man is Trump-level stupid.
Glad to see you had the energy today to post, chart and all!
Being smart in one area isn't smarts in another - and besides, he mostly had luck.
It was hinted at in the Musk Oval Office talk... the idea is to go into the budget talks looking like tough budget cutters (what I mean by that is that in the Oval Office talk Musk estimated they would cut $1 trillion from the budget. I would guess (given such things I read about as laying off most of the IRS) that Trump is going to start out claiming income taxes should be nixed in favor of tariffs (as he has talked about before). The numbers won't add up, of course, but Elon will back it, it seems.
Woah, so glad to see a real post from KD. Hoping you get better fast.
I needed some good news today. Seeing a Kevin Drum chart made me happy!
Welcome back. Please stay.
Long time reader going back to forever it seems but first time commenter. Just to say I was especially happy to find your usual clear-eyed, illuminating analysis here again. I hope this means you’re feeling better! Best wishes!
THIS is why we need you. Can we borrow you at least a couple years more?
Love your succinct update on the insanity. Because there is virtually no pushback from the Republicans who have the power to intervene, it's easy to just keep backing up as each horrific act browbeats us into submissive acceptance.
But dang Kevin, the best thing about this is that you must be a tad better since you found the energy for the post. Hope the hell you are trending up.
Succinct description of the state of things, developed well by many replies -- it's much crazier and way more chaotic than anyone foresaw.
I'm leaning toward thinking the alliance with Musk has liberated some deeper craziness in him, as if during the first term he was Putin's thrall and now, with the bona fide numero uno richest dude in the world backing him, he's feeling liberated from Putin and even from his daddy's oppression, who Putin stood in for. Plus, between chairing the Kennedy Center board and hiring RFK jr, he owns *that* name now too. But I think he's still being managed and steered around by the nose, just feels all-powerful while they're flashing the laser pointers around.
He of course has no idea what Musk is doing. But neither does Musk so nobody should bother asking either of them. Did anyone see the explanation for all the supposed 150-year-olds in the Social Security records? Hint: missing data as handled in COBOL.
Does my heart good to see you posting, bro.
Welcome back Kevin. You had me worried.