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Most Russians probably support the Ukraine war. Here’s why.

Published on 148 Comments on Most Russians probably support the Ukraine war. Here’s why.

Do ordinary Russians support the Ukraine war? No one can say for sure, but a best guess is that most of them do. Why is this?

It's not so hard to figure out. First off, as background, Russians spent centuries resenting the cultural and economic dominance of the West. They especially resented it because it was true. Then they fought two world wars against Germany, followed by 40 years fighting a Cold War in which the broader West was their enemy.

Then, thanks to Western pressure, their country disintegrated in 1991. This is not an easy thing to take. And what happens next?

The Americans send in teams of economists to make Russia a nice, capitalist country. The result is disastrous. Per capita GDP falls by half and the economy collapses. Huge companies are all but given away to oligarchs. The West takes advantage of Russia's momentary weakness to expand NATO right up to their borders, which looks like a permanent threat to Russian sovereignty and its legitimate sphere of influence.

Is it any wonder that the average Russian, living through all this, would feel like they've been treated criminally by an implacable enemy determined to keep them small and helpless?

But then Vladimir Putin becomes president. Make Russia Great Again! he says, and people see a glimmer of hope. What's more, Putin presides over a return to economic growth:

That's more like it. It shows what can happen when a real Russian is in charge who refuses to kowtow to the Americans.

And many Russians, just like many Americans, are cultural conservatives and strong nationalists. They like Putin for those reasons. They like the fact that he showed the Georgians who's boss. They like the fact that of course he permanently annexed Crimea instead of paying a lease until Ukraine eventually decided to kick them out. There's no way Russia was ever going to lose such a strategic asset, especially when the population is heavily pro-Russian.

Finally, a few months ago the United States agreed to support Ukraine's eventual membership in NATO, something that Putin has long made clear was intolerable to Russia—and probably to most Russians. It was just one more way that the Americans were gratuitously insulting Russia in its own backyard.

These are all real things. Now toss in an increasingly controlled media that makes Fox News look tame and it's hardly a surprise that most Russians view the West—and the US in particular—as enemies who won't rest until Russia is fully under their thumb. Do they believe that Ukraine is committing genocide against ethnic Russians? Or that Ukraine was getting ready to attack Russia? Why wouldn't they? They're primed to believe exactly that, and it's what Putin is telling them. Why would he be lying? And anyway, the average Russian probably believes that Ukraine is historically part of Russia as much as Alaska is historically part of the US.

But naturally the West has taken this opportunity to crush Russia further. Putin calls our economic sanctions an act of war, and who can argue with that? If anyone did to us what we're doing to them, we'd sure consider it an act of war.

In any case, this is the nickel version of what's going on. Russians have plenty of real reasons to resent the West, and that makes them perfect vessels for propaganda that cranks the resentment up to 11. Most of them probably think the invasion of Ukraine is a righteous war indeed.

148 thoughts on “Most Russians probably support the Ukraine war. Here’s why.”

  1. Jasper_in_Boston

    The vast majority of humans support their country when it goes to war, at least in the early stages, even when that country is clearly in the wrong. Doesn't require in-depth explanation or rationale.

  2. cld

    The impression is that the Russian air force is in no better shape than it's army and navy and that's why we haven't seen more of it.

    But that makes us ask, what shape are the nuclear bombs in? We read that they had a program of modernization of their nuclear capacity a few years ago, but did they? How well was it implemented, if at all?

    If they don't maintain their trucks, their planes and their aircraft carriers can they maintain their ICBMs?

    1. J. Frank Parnell

      Nuclear ICBM's don't need to be a reliable threat, just a credidable threat. "Do you feel lucky, punk?"

  3. eannie

    I spent the 80’ s…90’s and up to2016 living in Northern Europe. When the USSR collapsed things in Russia we’re truly bad. The seniors in the international school where I worked always hadan annual field trip to Russia and for years they came back heartbroken for the poverty there…but also impressed by the resilience shown by the people they met. Drunken Yeltsin …humiliation…then oligarchs and more corruption…Putin succeeded in raising up a sort of middle class …all of a sudden you were shopping at IKEA. And hanging out in Bali…..now he’s locked them down again…shut them off from the world…the Apple Watch doesn’t work in the subway.. I think at some point they are going to start blaming him….

  4. Spadesofgrey

    I think said poverty was overstated. Let's also understand said poverty was worse under Czarist regimes. When you try and identify their existence with yours, your analysis has already failed.

    1. J. Frank Parnell

      The Czarist regimes were overthrown over a hundred years ago. Do try to keep up Spadey. By the way, has the western crackdown affected your ability to post or your compensation? Just asking for a friend, I don't really care.

      1. Spadesofgrey

        Nope,you retard. It doesn't matter if they were overthrown or not, technology had driven out hunger. The real issue is that Russian people believed the end of Soviet Communism would herald in "western" living standards........it did not happen. Because western living standards as the financial crisis showed, are a scam themselves.

    2. eannie

      We witnessed it for many years…and we also witnessed the economic improvement…these are actual verifiable facts…Russians started to feel a bit prosperous again….that will all change now

  5. Traveller

    I think Kevin entirely misses the point...that it is dangerous to know or especially speak the truth in Russia in general, and especially now.

    As to Spades:

    you make some good sense with this phrase:

    "When you try and identify their existence with yours, your analysis has already failed."

    Russians will endure much and...cruelty inflict much:

    "Today 78 years ago, 6th of March 1944, the Soviets bombed Narva, Estonia to the ground with approx. 200 planes. Narva had been evacuated beforehand. This marked the beginning of the "March bombings" that lasted for a few weeks all over Estonia"

    Pictures at link

    https://twitter.com/ronaldliive/status/1500341251371147264

    Traveller

    1. eannie

      Except I did not analyze Russian situation in the 90’s with my own…it’s in the context of their own reality..which vastly improved under Putin..for a time…

  6. jvoe

    My experience in Russia, although limited, suggests Kevin is right. But I think these perceptions mostly reside in their baby boomers, like Putin. And like our country, this generation now holds power and is making the rest of us relive their 'glory years'.

    1. eannie

      There is a deeply held resentment of the west. And a true hatred for the EU and NATO…across the board in the Donbas and throughout Russia. They are not displeased that Putin is putting the fear in their tormentors.

  7. azumbrunn

    Sounds plausible. But if the war is so popular in Russia how come the invasion force suffers from bad morale? Maybe they support it so long as they themselves don't have risk their lives for it?

    Much of this history is of course simplified. There was the episode when Russia helped the West defeat Napoleon: Russian troops advanced all the way to France (I know because my home town of Zurich, Switzerland, was the site of a minor battle in that campaign and the story of General Suwarov's army's crossing the Alps in winter is legendary).

    The one thing America is responsible for (and it isn't a small thing) is the economic "advice" we gave them about transitioning to a capitalist economy. This advice from free-market fundamentalists is the lead case of the corruption that erupted in Russia (it was already there, but under Communism it was kept modest, a datscha here and there or a Western car or other items of that sort). This catastrophic economic side of the Cold War "victory" is the real root cause of the problems in and with Russia, not the NATO expansion (there was a time when Russia could have joined and turned the alliance in a European piece keeping organization). And the people (at Harvard business school no less) who are responsible for this mess have never been held accountable.

    Also: Ukraine is in fact very close to Russia; the nationalist enthusiasm in the country is a creation of Putin's heavy handed policies; a wiser course would have prevented the whole problem for Russia and for Ukraine.

    * not sure about the spelling

    1. nasruddin

      "But if the war is so popular in Russia how come the invasion force suffers from bad morale?"
      There could be a couple reasons for that (if in fact it's true).
      You could find that your expectation about what you're doing turn out to be wrong: not being greeted with flowers &c
      Maybe you find the missions and conduct of operations makes no sense
      Basic logistics may fail - equipment breaks down & you can't get it fixed, run out of rations &c

  8. Goosedat

    Peace advocates and anti-colonialists have plenty of real reasons to resent the West, and that makes them perfect targets for Democratic liberals incited by propaganda that cranks the nationalism up to 11.

    1. cld

      The real issue is that while you were asleep the confused fairy stuck something up your butt that can be remotely activated to induce subtle yankings and vibrations.

      You should ask your doctor to look for this.

    1. cld

      In other words, Ukrainians trying to speak to their Russian relatives is exactly like trying to speak to a Republican.

  10. raoul

    If the Russian population was pro war, I don’t hint the ridiculous and over the top propaganda would be needed. My guess is that Slavs killing Slavs does not sell very well.

  14. sodaseller

    This analysis only makes sense to the extent the dispute is viewed as against the West. That's certainly the official line. But the Russian public may not conclude that attacking Ukraine is attacking the West

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