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Murder in the US is plummeting

Published on 29 Comments on Murder in the US is plummeting

The national media is finally catching up with the latest crime data:

Homicides Are Plummeting in American Cities

Homicides in American cities are falling at the fastest pace in decades, bringing them close to levels they were at before a pandemic-era jump.

Nationwide, homicides dropped around 20% in 133 cities from the beginning of the year through the end of March compared with the same period in 2023, according to crime-data analyst Jeff Asher, who tabulated statistics from police departments across the country.

Here is approximately what the murder rate looks like based on the FBI's annual reports through 2022; their quarterly reports for 2023; and Jeff Asher's estimate for the first quarter of 2024:

29 thoughts on “Murder in the US is plummeting”

    1. RZM

      After all the coverage of how much homicide rates were increasing from 2019 until 2021, how low it was under Orange Caligula, I think it's appropriate to note that is now on track to be lower than it was in 2019, indeed, we're even heading toward the historically low rates last seen in the Obama Presidency. Doesn't that make you happy ?
      Moreover, given how much conservatives and some "centrists" (like you?) depend on the fear of crime to win elections accurately pushing back on that is
      quite important.

    3. Jasper_in_Boston

      "Homicides Are Plummeting in American Cities" Or, homicide is returning to about pre Covid levels...

      Both: murder would need to rapidly plummet to reach 2019's levels by now, given the severity of the Trump crime wave.

  2. cld

    Chicago isn't on that list so that's all we'll be hearing about, and the zombie hordes flooding across the border looking for blood to pollute.

      1. lawnorder

        "Hordes flooding across the border" into Chicago would be Canadian hordes. The zombie virus does not thrive in Canada due to cold weather.

        2. memyselfandi

          Death rate amongst canadian provinces strongly correlated with temperature, specifically the colder the more deaths (with the exceptions of the island provinces of nefoundland and pei which had the lowest death rates despite being mid temperature provinces.

  3. bbleh

    Obviously this is just a Deep State HOAX to try to help Crooked Joe Biden win ANOTHER fraud-filled election. But Real Americans won't be fooled! They KNOW about those Immigrants and their sh!thole countries, and those Inner-City Types and how they've turned our cities into hell!

    You libruls and your "facts" and your "statistics." Wadda you think, Real Americans are DUMB?!?

  5. jambo

    I followed the link to see how my city of Minneapolis was doing. We’ve had some tough years since the George Floyd events and I was hoping we’d have a big drop, too. We only dropped from 15 to 13 which is only a 13% drop. We used to be a safer city than that. I wonder how much weather has played into it this year. Usually the first three months of the year are so f’n cold no one goes out of the house, but this year it’s been an incredibly warm couple months. I wonder if that led to a lot more folks out and about than in typical years and therefore more chances for conflict?

  6. Bobby

    WSJ calls it a "pandemic era high" but the rise started in 2018, rose significantly in 2019, and then hit its peak in 2020 during the pandemic.

    But in 2021 it started falling under Biden despite still being in the pandemic, and has fallen each year since.

    1. memyselfandi

      There was a modest increase in 2021. So on an annual basis deaths didn't start to fall till 2022, on a monthly basis probably late spring 2021

    1. DButch

      Ok, now add that data to a graph like Kevin did, then track it going forward - you might gain some cred in actually demonstrating your chops in statistics.

  9. Elctrk

    I am so relieved the Trump CRIME WAVE is ending.

    When there is a criminal in the White House, people think anything goes. Sad, really.

  10. Marlowe

    Not that any of this will get past the willfully ignorant, delusional, and hateful MAGA cultists who know it is untrue. They believe what they want to believe. A couple of years ago during a debate in the Oklahoma governorship race, the sacrificial Democratic candidate accurately pointed out that Oklahoma violent crime rates are higher than those in New York and California. Republican Governor Stitt's jaw dropped and he ridiculed her for making (I mention once again) an absolutely correct statement. Now, Stitt is a contemporary Republican which means, among many other unsavory attributes, he is almost certainly an inveterate liar. But his tribal disbelief in the truth of this matter actually seemed sincere.

  12. Justin

    Two police officers were killed in a shootout on Sunday evening as they investigated a stolen vehicle in an upstate New York town near Syracuse, the authorities said.

    Thank goodness we can ignore this too! Mr. Drum is so worried about being blamed, that he wants to deny the problem even exists.

    1. Crissa

      Thank goodness you're here to inform us that less isn't zero and therefore everything is horrible!

      We might have forgotten that police are shooting and being shot in numbers not seen since the early twenty-first century.

    2. memyselfandi

      You do realize, that a farmer has a 50% higher chance of dying on the job than a police officer. Your ridiculously ill informed view is a result of the fact that every time a police officer dies in the US it is reported in every media outlet in the country. Only the local news covers the farmers death. Police office is the 18th most dangerous occupation in the country, anything involving extensive driving is more dangerous. (Which is why until recently, the most common way for police to die was driving (and not high speed chases, but just routine driving).

    3. Gilgit

      Crime in state run by Democrats goes down. Obviously Democratic policies are reducing crime. Democratic constituents glad their elected representatives are working hard on the issue.

      Local fool with no ability to reason responds by saying Democrats are ignoring crime.

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