There's been so much going on today that I forgot all about the May inflation report. This is PCE inflation, the measure preferred by the Fed:
As usual, don't put too much stock in a single month's number. That said, this is superlative news. The headline rate is negative, and the core rate, which the Fed cares most about, is only 1.0%.
On the more conventional year-over-year measure, headline inflation dropped to 2.6% and core inflation also dropped to 2.6%. But those numbers incorporate a lot of inertia from 12 months ago, so who cares?
People won't notice in time, Trump will be elected and then magically, the US Economy will be "the best ever!"
I'm afraid you are right. It take so long for the narrative to shift. Especially because so many of the loudest "liberals" are doom-and-gloomers.
For a couple of years now I’ve been buying my favorite boneless chicken thighs for $5.99 a pound. Recently, though, I’ve gotten them on sale for 3.99 and 4.99. It’s the one price I’ve paid attention to for several years. Deflation!
What ever happens was because they raised interest rates. Any induced recession will be deemed necessary. Any soft landing was solely due to the Fed....
I was expecting raising rates would have had more of an effect by now.
"I was expecting raising rates would have had more of an effect by now."
golack
The affects are subtle
Here's one angle that really struck home with me.
Lets say you got a house at a low interest rate and are now looking for a job.
Do you
1 - stay in the same area to keep you house and low interest rate
OR
2 - sell your current home only to have to get a new mortgage at a much higher rate?
This is causing problems in the job field already. Wages haven't gone up enough to make up for the interest rate increases that we have seen in the mortgage industry. People are clearly staying put. So areas that have a need for workers are getting hurt by the lower mortgage rates we had not too long ago.
It is a curious problem
First post-debate poll: https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/biden-trump-debate-poll-june-2024
It seems unlikely Biden will drop out of the race if this holds up. Thankfully, all voters need is to hear Trump speak for them to be reminded of who he is.
D_Ohrk
The guy that debated Pres Biden was NOT the Donald Trump that we have seen on TV. THAT guy is usually angry, bombastic and egotistical.
That only "sells" for so long especially for the older voters
"The Population Reference Bureau projects that the number of Americans aged 65 and older will increase from 58 million in 2022 to 82 million by 2050, which would be a 47% increase."
The Baby Boom is over, and has been for awhile. Biden plays well to that group whereas Trump does not
At this rural diner in Iowa, the chatter is about corn futures, EVs getting shoved down their throats, and how liberal bloggers are forcing them to vote for Trump by insisting inflation is down, when they JUST KNOW it's still raging.
Let's read more at The New York Times
It's good that prices did not increase from April to May, but it's not news. The CPI reported the same thing on June 12:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1pF7G
The PCE uses the same data as the CPI but a somewhat different formula, so its values for inflation are usually a little lower. But for practical purposes they almost always show the same thing, yet the media (including Kevin) sometimes interpret them very differently.
The actual story, as I have said before, is that high inflation essentially came to an end in July 2022, and the month/month changes of both the CPI and PCE have since been bouncing in the range 0-6%, for averages of 2-3% (annual). Whatever causes those bounces is not predictive. The next actual news will come on July 11 when the CPI is released again, but unless there is some major event affecting prices one month's data do not say what will happen in the future.
And yet the Trump ads here in Georgia are all about how inflation is raging