This ad from Donald Trump ran during Thursday's debate. That is, even before Joe Biden's terrible performance:
I don't personally have a strong opinion about Kamala Harris. But that doesn't matter. It's hard to overstate just how long and how intensely Fox News and others have been demonizing her. By now even moderate Republicans are fully convinced that Harris is dangerously incompetent, ultra-liberal, and scary. Most of them are petrified at the prospect of her becoming president.
Needless to say, that prospect is now even scarier than it was before the debate. This is something to keep in mind as you ponder Joe Biden's fate. If Biden drops out Harris is the all but certain nominee, and fair or not, she may be the only Democrat alive with even less center-right support than Biden. And that center-right support is where the election will be won or lost.
Lucky Joe won't be dropping out.
NPR ran with this headline today: 'Can Biden come back from a bad debate the way Reagan did in 1984?' Inside-the beltway pundits remain convinced the "debates" they devote so much time and energy to must therefore be massively important events.
The truth is that Reagan's poor performance in his first 1984 debate - he was old! Confused! Mumbling! - barely affected his polling, and his support continued to climb all the way to the election.
And Allan Lichtman, who has also noted that, also believes that Biden should stay in the race. He has a pretty good record on analyzing elections.
And, while I know that Kamala Harris brought more voters than most think to thr Biden-Harris ticket, I'm not certain that she could replace Biden as the candidate, although I think that she could do the actual job.
I'd also hope for the right SCOTUS decision - not another damned punt - on the immunity question, & appropriate action to fix the Cannon problem soon.
Going with Kamala would be a gamble but I'd take it, because I think Biden is going to lose. This fall there will be nonstop commercials of him looking feeble. Kamala laughing does not seem so bad.
R's are now doing to Kamala exactly what they spent 20 years doing to Hillary.
Yes. And, unfortunately, it worked on Hillary and appears to be working on Harris.
appears to be working on Harris.
That's not what the poll evidence suggests. Contrary to popular belief (mine included prior to 24 hours ago) she's not especially toxic or unpopular:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/kamala-harris-trump-matchup/
Jasper
"That's not what the poll evidence suggests. Contrary to popular belief (mine included prior to 24 hours ago) she's not especially toxic or unpopular:"
As a sitting VP she has been playing second banana to Joe. She needs to exert herself a little more and Joe will gladly give her credit for things SHE accomplishes (he's always been that way)
Unfortunately for her VP is a no glory position - she's a caretaker for lack of a better word.
What people NEED to realize is that as AG for CA she was the top LEO for a state more populated than Canada.
I think she would do well but I'd like to see some more responsibility being assigned to her
I think she would do well but I'd like to see some more responsibility being assigned to her
I don't know what's going to happen, but if Biden drops out (obviously a big if) of the race, my personal strong preference would be for him to resign the presidency immediately. Kamala Harris is a highly qualified public servant. Let the electorate see this.
Short of some kind of major health issue, Biden will not be dropping out of the race.
Am I the only one who remembers the access Hollywood tape? Pence was practically picking out Oval Office furniture in his eagerness to replace Trump on the ticket. Everyone declared his candidacy dead. And I don’t often say this about Trump, but, to his actual credit, he did not back down. And if he had, the Republicans would’ve lost in 2016 and Clinton would now be retiring after 8 years in office.
But access Hollywood is just the tip of the ice berg. Trump was a horrible president. His pandemic response was an international embarrassment of historic proportions. He has been impeached twice, he led an insurrection against our country (in which people died), and he is now a convicted felon.
Biden is a successful President with a great record who currently leads the world’s strongest economy. And he had a bad debate night. And somehow he’s the one that pundits insist should leave the race? That’s one of the most perverse things I’ve heard in my life.
My cynicism towards the NYT may now be incurable. But I admit I haven’t searched their archives. Have they published a piece asking Trump to step aside from the race? If they have only made such a request of Biden then something is deeply wrong at that paper.
So, again, I don’t say this often, but Biden honestly would be wise to take a page from Donald Trump’s playbook in this case. Ignore the media hysteria (most of it is background noise to most people anyway) and stay in the race.
Because if he leaves the race, the Dems will lose, and he knows that. The Republicans would spend the next four months accurately painting the Dems as scared losers who run away from fights with Donald Trump.
Rather than hail his decision as noble, the same mob of pundits now demanding that Biden should step down would immediately pivot to weeks if not months of stories of Democrats in disarray.
Biden resigning would be an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions. So we go to the election with the candidate that we have, not the one we fantasize about. And that’s Biden.
Pretty much all this, especially the media pivot, which would be seamless. Hell, they've got those stories already written; all they'd need to do is change a word or two and some names.
This is media hysteria because that's what get clicks and eyeballs and builds both journalistic and political careers. They're not offering information; they're offering entertainment (which definitely includes at least some circle-jerking).
I have no doubt Biden is ignoring it the same way he's ignored so many other media kerfuffles. And Obama issuing a strong statement of support seals it for me.
(And yeah, running against a Black woman with Indian and Jamaican heritage. Wouldn't Trump just hate THAT?)
Who are you, and what have you done with Leo?
yeah, I had to scroll up to be certain I'd read the name right
@Five Parrots in a Shoe:
That’s a silly observation. I have been a Liberal Dem all my life.
The main difference between me and others here is that I am not a tribal Dem;
Hence, I can defend Biden because it’s the right thing to do while at the same time I can point out that the “Liberal” justices on the Supreme Court got it wrong AGAIN this week when they voted to give homeless people more rights than anyone else.
Fortunately, they were in the minority. And it’s simply a fact not just to say that the Conserve justices were right in Grants Pass vs Johnson but that Neal Gorsuch wrote yet another succinct and eloquent opinion when he struck down the earlier 9th circuit decision and declared that the Eighth Amendment “does not authorize federal judges… to dictate this Nation's homelessness policy.” Good for him.
I would add that this ostensibly “Conservative” decision has been welcomed by the very Liberal Governor Newsom of California and the very Liberal Mayor Breed of San Francisco.
Those three “Liberal” Supreme Court justices have gone so far out to the Leftist extremes of social “justice” that they are now in open conflict with even our most Liberal and Democratic politicians. And that’s just scary.
So I just call it as I see it.
I'll also note that no major media outlet called on Trump to drop out of the race for basically standing there for two hours telling outrageous lies about both his own record and Biden. You'd think that would be, you know, kind of disqualifying in a presidential candidate, but apparently not. That tells you something about our MSM.
https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/editorials/first-presidential-debate-joe-biden-donald-trump-withdraw-20240629.html
One of the Sunday talking head shows noted that the Philadelphia Inquirer called for Trump to step aside because of his debate performance and, well, all his lying.
It's funny and sad that the left insists only Trump lied. Biden lied about half as much as Trump but Biden still told some big lies.
Holy cow! Even one of our blinkered Republican trolls is acknowledging that Trump lies way more than is normal for politicians.
I wish Biden would take the gloves off and call Trump what he is: a lifelong crook and a degenerate with the morals of a sewer rat. Forget these abstractions about "threats to democracy" and get people focused on the loathsome creature that is Donald Trump, who has no business being within a mile of any public office.
Where are all these stories coming from?
This is how in the tank for wingnuttism American media and the pundit class are.
Biden's not dropping out unless his inner circle—most critically Jill Biden—urges him to do so. And that isn't happening unless there's a chorus of Democratic elected officials urging him to do so. And that in turn isn't happening barring further, very bad (and public) cognitive episodes and/or an implosion in his poll numbers. So, no, Joe's very unlikely to drop out.
In the (highly unlikely) event Biden were to relinquish the nomination, though, I personally would strongly prefer to see him resign the presidency. I write this for a number of reasons, not the least of which I think is: it's fairer to Kamala Harris, and improves her chances against Trump. Make a clean break. It'll be hard for Republicans to scaremonger the electorate about Harris's suitability for office when, you known, she's actually doing a visibly competent job as President of the United States.
Also, I like to admit when I'm wrong, and I've apparently been wrong about Harris's poll numbers: there's hardly any difference in her numbers vs. Trump (compared to Biden's). Philip Bump has done a pretty compelling analysis:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/kamala-harris-trump-matchup/
But no, Joe's probably not going anywhere, so this is all moot. And as others have pointed out, there's not much evidence suggesting debate performance matters much one way or another. I'd be at least mildly surprised if Biden's polling takes a tumble; and I'd be kinda shocked if his fundraising doesn't see a major spike: pundits may feel differently, but my sense is rank and file Democrats are circling the wagons.
It certainly got me to set up a monthly donation -- partly out of concern to do what I can to help the campaign recover, partly because all the hyperventilating pundit takes pissed me off so much.
(Which is not to say I'm happy with Biden. He screwed up bad and he should feel bad. But then he should use that feeling as motivation to campaign with everything he's got. If he was going to step down, the time to do it was a year ago; it's way too late for that now.)
Biden’s been doing a better-than-competent job as President. You can see where that has got him.
Don't be silly. Harris will do just great against Trump after Biden drops out.
However, it won't be Harris who replaces Biden. It will be Gretchen Whitmer, and she'll clean Trump's clock.
Oh, did I say Whitmer? I meant Gavin Newsom. There's no doubt he'll win.
No, hold on, not Newsom. It'll be Bernie Sanders, for sure. He's the one who can beat Donald Trump.
Er, I mean Josh Shapiro.
Cory Booker?
As you can see, Democrats are united on this. All Biden has to do is drop out, and the wise, all-seeing party elders who brought you Hillary '16 will pick the Perfect Candidate, whose identity is plain for all to see. Democratic voters will instantly unite behind this person, and no one will be upset that the man they actually voted for in the primaries is no longer running. There's nothing whatsoever to worry about.
Sincerely,
Every Left-Wing Pundit Right Now
It'll be Harris. It's unfathomable to imagine Democrats passing over the first Black woman Vice President as their nominee in the event Biden withdraws. That's been a glaring weakness of the "Joe shouldn't run" crowd from day one. Whitmer and Shapiro ain't walking through that door. Happily, it's not clear any of the so-called dream candidates fares markedly better than Kamala Harris against Trump. I realize the conventional wisdom is that some combination of Whitmer-Shapiro-Brown-Buttigieg-Beshear-Cooper-Kelly etc is the way to go. But people are really underestimating the hyper "evenness" of the electorate:Trump heads into November with an ironclad 46-47% floor as a share of the two party vote no matter whom Democrats nominate. Yes, I know Trump is awful. It doesn't matter: half the country doesn't see it that way.
[deactivates sarcasm mode]
Yeah, that's pretty much the size of it. In head-to-head polling, all Democrats do about equally well against Trump. The lesser-known "dream team" candidates have a few more voters in the undecided camp, which *could* allow them to improve on Biden's showing... but could also allow them to do even worse.
And, of course, the thing no one wants to talk about is the brawl to succeed Biden. Maybe Biden could avert that by openly and firmly endorsing Harris as his handpicked successor. But I suspect at least one of the "dream team" would try to seize the opportunity and contest the convention. And then the knives come out, and whatever attacks the candidates lob at each other, you can be sure Trump will be taking notes on what sticks.
All this is just the latest iteration of Democrats looking for someone to swoop in and save us from having to actually win this election. Before this, it was the Trump trials, and before that it was the 14th Amendment. If Biden did drop out, you can bet in a few weeks we'd be deluged in chin-stroking think pieces about whether it was really a good idea to dump the incumbent Democratic President in July.
Better to be woke and give Harris the nomination then put your best foot forward and try to beat Trump, I guess.
Thanks for your racist contribution.
I have no doubt you think it's racist.
This. The problem isn’t actually Biden, the problem is that nearly half the voting citizenry thinks a convicted felon, con man, lying multiple-incident security risk, admirer of autocrats, ignoramus is their best choice to lead the government, regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. One of the byproducts of those frequent NYT ‘let’s talk to a bunch of voters who haven’t been paying attention’ articles is evidence of how successful the Republican propaganda campaign of the last several decades has been — a lot of people are convinced that Democrats are in league with the Devil and determined to turn the US into a Socialist hellhole.
@ dausuul:
Not just Left wing pundits. Republicans can only dream in their wildest fantasies that the Dems actually believe in, let alone follow, any of that “advice” that you reference.
Also, I have read that Harris may be the only candidate who could legally utilize the 300 million that the Biden/Harris war machine has already raised. I’m not a lawyer, so I can’t attest to the accuracy of that statement. But it makes sense.
So, in the extremely unlikely case that Biden departs from the race, it’s Harris. Otherwise, the Dems just give up hundreds of millions for the reelection campaign of their nominee, effectively handing the race to Trump.
So any talk of Biden dropping out is absurd. But even more absurd is any talk of any other candidate than Harris stepping in. Anyone promoting the likes of Newsom or Whitmer simply reveals how profoundly unserious they are.
Those of you arguing that Kamala can’t win, you do realize the point of the attack ad is that if you vote for Biden, you’re really voting for Kamala, right?
Obviously. Trump is trying to convince people that this race is Trump v. Harris instead of Trump v. Biden. Because he also is pretty sure she can't win.
I missed the part where this means we should give Trump the race he would clearly prefer to run.
I think you're missing an alternative. What if Biden resigns as POTUS as a last favor to his VP? Kamala Harris would be provided the opportunity to take the lead and show her chops. Black-Americans get to see what they've got in Harris as POTUS -- the very folks who pollsters claim are abandoning Biden (though likely overstated).
Lots of ppl chiming in (in opinion polls and focus groups) on how they dislike her and I find it curious that they'd have an opinion of her when few of them likely know a single bill she's cosponsored as a senator, or that she was a long-time former prosecutor. All they know is what Fox News and their favorite media outlet or pundit has told them about her.
You don't think she deserves the chance to show the nation and the world what she can do?
Harris had her chance to show Democrats what she can do - in terms of campaigning - and came nowhere near beating Biden or Sanders. She has her current position because of the deliberate choice of Biden, based on his previous promises.
Real record doesn't matter much - Trump had none in 2016 - but swing voters vote on the basis of name recognition and in some cases association with their own causes. No possible substitute for Biden at this point has the kind of national recognition that a Presidential candidate needs.
What a silly argument.
Biden ran a disastrously poor campaign in 2008 against two much stronger rivals (his second attempt, btw, so he had practice), and look where he is today. Why shouldn't the very same path (failed campaign for candidacy, selection as Vice President) work for Harris?
It should, but there's not an atom of evidence that it will. Magical thinking won't defeat Trump. Biden/Harris could.
Yeah, I wasn't necessarily arguing for replacing Biden with Harris on the ticket, just against the argument that Harris would be a poor choice if that happens.
I don't care what she deserves. I care whether she can win the election -- or, more precisely, whether she has a better chance than Biden, since nothing is guaranteed either way.
What existing, pressing issue would a fill-in President Harris have a reasonable chance of addressing in the four months before the election?
And who then steps-in as VP? Are they also then the VP candidate?
It's less about a pressing issue that can be unilaterally addressed and more about the opportunity to seize the bully pulpit and define her values as American values, while showcasing what their (Biden/Harris) administration accomplished.
But also, she could loosen the reins on what Ukraine can do with the weapons and ammo they've been given.
She could send a national security signal by having the 3rd and 7th naval fleets take rotating turns transiting the Sea of Japan and the Taiwan Strait, making port of calls in South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand.
How about daring SCOTUS to go back on its unitary executive push and sign executive orders granting every undocumented resident who has lived in the US for 15 consecutive years immediate citizenship and immediately expand green card levels that is pegged to a % of the total employed, eg the annual green card level shall be calculated as a cap of 0.2% of the total American workforce.
What about signing an executive order removing marijuana as a controlled substance?
Maybe this will be decided quicker than expected (or not)
"WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden is expected to discuss the future of his re-election campaign with family at Camp David on Sunday, following a nationally televised debate Thursday that left many fellow Democrats worried about his ability to beat former President Donald Trump in November, according to five people familiar with the matter. .....
Despite delivering a rousing speech at a rally in North Carolina on Friday that calmed some of his allies, Biden was described by one person familiar with his mood as humiliated, devoid of confidence and painfully aware that the physical images of him at the debate — eyes staring into the distance, mouth agape — will live beyond his presidency, along with a performance that at times was meandering, incoherent and difficult to hear.
“It’s a mess,” this person said.
Another person familiar with the dynamics said Biden will ultimately listen to only one adviser.
“The only person who has ultimate influence with him is the first lady,” this person said. “If she decides there should be a change of course, there will be a change of course.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-family-path-forward-disastrous-debate-mess-rcna159591
Maybe this will be decided quicker than expected (or not)
I think it's already been decided: he's staying in the race absent a compelling development. I read your NBC link: sounds to me like they're going to talk about a response moving forward at Camp David—not his withdrawal from the race.
Mind you, I don't believe there's zero chance Biden withdraws from the race. But I do think he won't do that unless his closest advisers and most top Democrats are urging him to do so, and that's not going to happen absent a precipitous hemorrhaging of his poll numbers, or another disastrous cognitive episode. At least that's my take. But I do wonder how he campaigns over the next four months. Does he dare do anything that's not very tightly scripted? And, relatedly, what, exactly, is the explanation for the debate performance. Is it dementia? I doubt it's that, but the question is being asked, and understandably so. Does he lose it after a certain hour at night? Or when he's under pressure? None of the explanations are very good.
Overpreparation is another explanation I've seen. They loaded him up with facts and figures, apparently, which is a terrible plan against Trump. Anybody who puts a lot of stock in facts and figures is in Biden's corner already.
The silver lining to all this is that the Biden campaign is really feeling the heat now. They've been whistling past the graveyard for months, talking breezily about how the polls will improve as we get closer to the election. Now they understand -- and Biden especially understands -- that they can't just coast to a win.
They needed a come-to-Jesus moment and they got one. They know they have to turn this thing around. Now the question is whether they can do it.
I think this is true for Dems generally. It shouldn't -- and I trust won't -- be ONLY campaign HQ that gets jolted into more action.
"s it dementia? I doubt it's that, but the question is being asked, and understandably so. "
Doctors will tell you that an 81 year old who gets lost in sentences and stares into space with his mouth agape has something - but dementia can be ruled out.
If Kamala becomes the new nominee, she’ll only do as good as Hillary - win the popular vote and lose the electoral. Beshear is the best choice. very hard for republicans and trump to smear him. Plus he has a good chance of pulling in republicans and ‘indepedents’ who vote for shallow reasons. If Kamala stays as the vp nominee, it’ll be a landslide for the dems.imo.
I’m think trump will win the election regardless either outright or by some illegal maneuver if it’s close. I thought that even before the debate. And given the reaction to this debate, no one is going to lift a finger to stop him… ever. So buy your MAGA hats now and prepare to be good little servants. Good grief.
Will trump be as bad as advertised? Will the illegals be rounded up and deported? Will the criminals stop being coddled by prosecutors? Will the homeless be sent off to concentration camps? Will the teen transgender treatment centers be shut down? Will abortion providers be sent to prison? Will the Democratic Party be banned and its leaders imprisoned? Will Christian church attendance become compulsory?
I have no idea. But here we go. We’re going to find out. Oh well.
It is not Kamala...the correct answer to any puzzlement is Governor Gretchen Whitmer - State of Michigan, a necessary swing state to win, and Josh Shapiro Governor of Pennsylvania, another necessary swing state...this is the winning ticket.
The nomination is not a gift to be given, and it is certainly not proper for Biden to be trying to Gift this to Ms Harris. This is the truth of it, Best Wishes, Traveller
PS What matters in not Kamala Harris's feelings...winning this election and as many down ballot positions as possible...this is what matters. (and we get a female president) Kamala will lose
LOL! Nobody's saying it's about Harris's fee-fees. What's at issue is a black woman who helped Biden get elected and has been a heartbeat away from the presidency for four years being summarily dumped. If that happens, women and people of color will stay home in November, handing the WH to Trump, both houses of Congress to the GOP and at least one SCOTUS nomination to Trump during his second term. If winning this election matters, Harris stays on the ticket, either as VPOTUS or POTUS. Otherwise, the Democrats will lose.
Women, people of color, and everyone else need to get a grip. Letting personal feelings about trivial stuff is not going to cut it. Anyway, it seems like people of color are already upset over any number of things. Democrats haven’t delivered for them. Or so I’m told.
And your opinion about how women and voters of color vote matters . . . why?
It's pretty well established that they aren't happy. Especially people of color.
"Harris’s allies and aides are “not shy about pointing out the optics of substituting any other candidate (likely White, possibly male) for Harris — a move that they suggest would upset not only Black delegates at the convention but also Black voters with whom the Biden campaign is already on shaky ground.”
Shaky ground. It's not really my opinion, but I can read.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/30/black-swing-voters-georgia
Take your pick. I'm sure you can find other examples if you look.
If you have the power to make millions of voters change their point of view, I suggest using it on Trump voters.
Otherwise, voter preferences have to be accounted for, whether we consider them rational or not.
"The nomination is not a gift to be given. So give it to [insert candidate here.]"
I mean, you're not wrong that Harris would be a poor choice. If we could somehow run a whole new primary in the next four weeks, I'd be looking at Whitmer and Shapiro too.
But all of that is beside the point. The primaries are over. If Biden steps down, then it will be the party elites deciding who takes his place, and there is no way for them to pick anyone other than Harris without driving a massive wedge into the party base. The activist wing is already unhappy over Gaza; the sight of Democrats kicking a black woman to the curb in favor of a white person would make them rise up in revolt. And we do actually need those folks, infuriating as they may be.
It's the same reason Biden won't dump Harris as VP, even though he would be much better off if he could magically transform her into Whitmer or Shapiro. There comes a point when you have to accept the hand you've dealt yourself and just play it as well as you can.
Traveller, yours is just about the only comment I have found on this page that makes sense. Thanks.
I live in Michigan and Whitmer might make a good President some day. Most any governor would. But I’d don’t think she would make a good presidential candidate this year. Everyone is just grasping at straws and indulging the hope that something or someone will save us. Barring some series of unfortunate events taking the MAGA cult down, we are going to have to live under their regime. If not next year, then after that. The problem is that several 10s of millions of our fellow citizens are hell bent on revenge or are unconvinced the MAGA threat isn’t real. Also, they really aren’t interested in the things Democrats talk about for policy. And don’t bother pointing to polls. It’s like asking if you like ice cream.
It’s over. Get used to it. Or not. But I’m preparing for the worst.
. People in tv interviews sound positively desperate to have someone to vote for without being embarrassed.
Mr Bebop....Not be embarrassed, that is a nice way to phrase our Dilemma...and real it is, for me, for everyone, even if you were a Biden or Harris supporter.
We all have choices now....that cannot be avoided. Traveller
I am voting for President Biden. I look at his accomplishments in office, not his TV entertainer skills. He won the nomination in 2020 against all of these suggested alternatives, then he won the election against a stronger Trump. He has served well, better than many expected, and I see no reason for him to be booted from his job after such excellent service. No one else has a better chance of beating Trump, but more importantly, Biden has earned the chance to run again as incumbent.
I am sickened by the response to his poor debate because it suggests our party does not have any loyalty or strength of character in the face of adversity, two strengths Biden has in abundance. I have cancelled my NY Times subscription over this and will do my best to help Biden earn reelection. I wish other Dems would do the same.
It's great that you think he was a good leader in the past. But you need to assess his *current* skills before voting for him. His cognitive and communication skills have gone drastically downhill even in the last 5 years. This doesn't mean he's a bad person--aging is hard on everyone--he's just not up for a very hard job.
So vote for Trump or stay away from the polls. Same thing. Don't pretend you care. You obviously don't.
Smarter trolls, please.
And the only other candidate with a chance to win was never up to the job. Not when he had it, not before, not since.
For what it's worth, there's something happening here, and what it is is exactly clear. Allow me to explain:
I'd be a terrible candidate, but the person I was when I was in 5th grade would have been worse. And yet, as a child I was not one of those "I think, therefore I am right, and therefore anyone who disagrees with me is wrong" kind of people.
Ergo, as a fifth grader, I was a better candidate than the entire group of GOP POTUS nominees. I wouldn't have done any good, but at least I wouldn't have done any harm.
I'm now retired, and I've learned a lot since fifth grade, but I'd still be an utterly incompetent if well meaning POTUS. Harris is as well meaning as Biden. If you asked me to bet on which of the two are more competent, I couldn't say for sure, but my money would be on Biden.
Translation: Intent is much easier to judge and matters much more than competence. Get the easy part right, and the hard part is possible. Get the easy part wrong, and the hard part is literally impossible.
When Donald Trump was elected, it was the first time in my life that I felt certain I personally would make a better President than the incumbent. And I'd make a terrible President.
Really? I'll assume then you not born yet or were too young in 2003 (only half joking).
Dubya was a lousy President -- I remember it quite well -- but even so I don't think I would have done a better job. I would not have made the mistakes he made, but there's a whole lot of stuff the President has to do that I would be much worse at even than he was.
You could hardly do worse than he did, given his admistration's failure to heed a warning about terrorists using planes, his instigating a war with erroneous or falsified information, & his acceptance of a government lawyer's opinion that procedures that were rightly considered to constitute torture, banned by the Geneva Conventions, were legal.
I doubt I would have been able to get PEPFAR put together. That right there is 25 million people who would die if you swapped me in for Bush the Younger.
Like I said: I would not have made his specific mistakes, or at least not all of them. But I'd have failed in a lot of other areas.
Always a great watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUeOCjcgVsE
Men at age 80 have an average life expectancy of around 7 years (I consider both these guys in that range). My guess is that only about 50-60% of 80 year olds will be what we call fully functional in 5 years and to me that is the range of likelihood that a VP will succeed either of these guys. Harris is fine, well prepared, smart, on the correct side of issues.
For republicans their VP choice is similarly important given that their candidate is a sociopath/ maybe psychopath (google it) and is not aging gracefully either. He threatens to abandon Europe and NATO and that scares not only Europe but parts of Asia as well. He’s planning on inflationary tariffs on everything and tax cuts for the wealthy. Guess who pays? You’re right, he plans cuts in Social Security, Medicare, the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid. His fealty to Putin and America’s rightist billionaires is well documented. 90% of people who worked with him in his last administration don’t support his election. Big problems ahead if he’s elected.
Not a great choice in this election but as I often do I’ll vote against rather than enthusiastically for someone….. and it won’t be Trump.
I'd take anyone with a functioning brain over Biden
So you won't be voting for Trump.
What if the brain was eaten by a worm?
Remember its the Biden-Harris campaign and if Biden isn't there, who inherits it? The one person still there and to ask Newsom, Whitmer or Shapiro to whip up something overnight and raise the money to face what's already an organized campaign who have basically selected the delegates, they're just not going to do it. It's just too much and why risk tearing the party apart?
I think the Dems have worry about Congress at this point and hope voters pick their candidates to put a check on Trump.
Trump has already decided that he won’t be checked by anyone, not the Congress, not the Supremes, not the Justice Department, not the electorate, not civil servants. He doesn’t have any interest in actually running the government, so he’ll leave that to Stephen Miller, Mike Flynn, Steve Bannon and the other random fanatics.
Now for something completely different......
https://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-out
"There were two things that might save Biden. First, that Trump is also really unpopular — and also really old. Even now, I suppose I think Biden has some chances if he remains in the race — but surely they’re lower now, probably by quite a lot, than the already-low 35 percent chance that Biden woke up with in the Silver Bulletin forecast this morning."
"And you should be angry at Joe Biden, every bit as much as you should be angry at Ruth Bader Ginsburg."
"But don’t give me any more bullshit about how age is just a number or just a media fixation — or how changing candidates just isn’t how it’s done. We’re playing the highest-stakes game of poker you can imagine, and you do whatever in your power to improve your odds — even if it’s only from 25 percent to 35 percent."
"And if I lived in a swing state, I’d still vote for Biden — if for no other reason than because I think January 6 is so disqualifying to outweigh everything else. But since I don’t live in a swing state: after that debate tonight, I’m going to vote third-party if Biden remains on the ballot as a protest against Biden’s irresponsibility in seeking a second term and the Democratic Party’s irresponsibility in nominating him without a serious primary contest."
Don't make this hard. Biden should announce he's dropping out on the 4th. Candidates for the nomination will campaign for the next month until early August when delegates will vote on who they like best. Harris will have her shot. The top 4 or 5 voter getters move on to the convention where speeches will happen and votes will be taken. A nominee will emerge. I don't think debates, per se, are necessary. The 24/7 media, which loves shiny new objects, will fall all over themselves to interview and question candidates about their positions. It won't take long for voters to figure out who is viable and who is not.
From a barbershop and a cigar bar in Atlanta, many Black voters say they remain undecided after an underwhelming debate.
Screw them. Undecided even before the debate?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/30/black-swing-voters-georgia
If people haven't decided by now to vote against Trump that's a problem. What is going to make them decide to vote for BIden. I don't see it happening. I would support almost anyone in the country over Trump.
Ah yes, the true face of Democratic Progessivism.
It's all about "Democracy" and "BIPOC" -- right up until "those people" refuse to be your puppets and to endorse every crazy thing you say.
"If Biden drops out Harris is the all but certain nominee, "
What's that based on? There's a LOT of countervailing chatter that basically consists of "OK, we all agree she's unelectable, right? So who do we choose? Whom the Obama machine have to offer? Whom does the Clinton machine have to offer?"
Newsom seems to be the name floated most often, but IMHO Newsom's only advantage is that if Harris is a 10 on unelectability, Newsom is 'only" a 9. Both are tarred by being associated with the clusterfsck that is San Francisco, and that ain't gonna change.
To my eyes the only way out is to choose a Dem governor of a state that's not notoriously progressive. (cf Clinton)
Someone like Katie Hobbs (AZ), or Kentucky.
But do they even want the job? And will the Dem crowd who care VASTLY more about virtue signaling than about winning an election allow such a choice?
"OK, we all agree she's unelectable, right?"
Oh, the same argument that pops up every time a woman might be the nominee? "I'd vote for a woman, just not that woman."
Ah yes, the joys of commenting on jabberwocking.
I try to point out the reality of voting in America and the usual crazy Red Guards attack me as though a statement of fact that I am making is my personal opinion. After all ideological purity (especially in the form of claiming that black is white) IS the most important virtue in an ally.
BTW how did that refusal to face reality about Biden's competence work out for you? For the past year ideological purity has demanded the exact same thing from your team -- if people like me pointed out that there were real problems there, we were told we were repeating Fox News talking points, and doing Trump's dirty work for him. So you refused to face reality for a year, and now here we are. But sure, go right ahead with yet another round of "if I get really angry at people who tell the me truth, then the truth will change"!
It's always more important to attack someone on your side than to actually confront reality, isn't it? People like you have been screaming into the void since at least Nixon, and have learned ABSOLUTELY NOTHING from the experience. Nixon was elected a second time. Reagan was elected twice. Bush II was elected a second time. Neither Hillary nor Bernie were elected. Trump was elected (and may well be a second time).
But you go right ahead and learn nothing from these experiences. There's a reason the American Left's primary competence is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, losing elections that should have been easily winnable for 50 years or so.