The Russian army in Ukraine is changing command again. They are now on their third leader:
- February, 2022: Army General Aleksandr Dvornikov, the "Butcher of Syria," leads the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- October 2022: General of the Army Sergey Surovikin, aka "General Armageddon," replaces Dvornikov.
- January 2023: General of the Army Valery Gerasimov, also Chief of the General Staff and Hero of the Russian Federation, replaces Surovkin.
Dvornikov lasted eight months but Surovikin lasted only three. Why? The New York Times offers an opinion:
“They have taken someone who is competent and replaced him with someone who is incompetent, but who has been there a long time and who has shown that he is loyal,” said Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation in Washington. “Whatever is happening in Moscow, it is out of touch with what is happening on the ground in Ukraine.”
Putin keeps going up the chain of command for new generals. But I don't think there are too many more to go before he's leading the army himself.
Meh. Lincoln wasn't shy about replacing generals, but the Union still won.
However, even at its sickest moment, American democracy was still healthy enough that one of Lincoln's ousted generals could challenge him for the presidency.
The difference being, Lincoln was smart enough replace the generals he fired with more competent ones, like Grant. That doesn't appear to be what Putin's doing.
Eventually. He also put some real doozies like Pope in charge, plus put the much loved George McClellan in command twice, the second time even though he absolutely knew what had gone wrong on the Peninsula.
You're correct in thinking this does not necessarily say anything bad about Putin in and of itself.
And, the Federals struggled for the first year or two of that war, which is what is happening to the Russian Army. There are a variety of reasons for that, and they probably can't be fixed by simply replacing the general in charge, but we will have to wait and see to know for sure.
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Any general who succeeds in Ukraine would be an immediate rival to the throne, but at the same time they're also an immediate rival to that lunatic who runs the Wagner group.
Life in the Russian upper echelons probably is mostly about how many knives your back can hold.
Oh my, this reminds me of Bel Riose of the Galactic Empire in the aptly titled Foundation and Epmire. I trust everyone knows this is pulled from Asimov's Foundation series, Book II, Act I. Seems oddly appropo.
I've been thinking a lot lately about how the fantasy world of action movies and American entertainment in general has an idea of the US that seems more like Russia-with-money than the actual US, and a lot of low information voters completely buy it.
Don't go onto any balcony or walk by any window.
The success of the invasion is not to the liking of the man and so he does what he can to get that result that he does want.
But the tool is broken. Grievously broken. And so KD's prediction would seem apparent. I think Vlad is smarter than that, and so would never risk placing himself in the position of taking the blame.
Bingo.
Vlad needs someone to throw under the bus.
Withdraw from Kyiv, you're gone.
Lost land in eastern Ukraine (and then the south?), you're gone....or was it the bridge?
Lose a bunch of conscripts to gross incompetence--ba'bye...
Putin and Trump seem to have a common interest in hiring generals with tough sounding nick names. I know nothing about this new guy but his lack of such a nickname might signal actual competence. I guess we’ll see.
Pretty sure Vlad knows his Russian history. In WW1 the Czar in charge of the army. When the badly equipped poorly led Russian army was thrashed by the Germans, he had no one to assign responsibility to, no one to fire. The Russian people decided it was the czar that needed to be replaced.
Gerasimov is actually a good strategist but it will be like building a castle of shit blindfolded when you are used to designing them.
If he doesn't have logistics, his strategy will be for nought.
Krugman in the FNYT thinks Ukraine will win. It is all about the base. Oops the GDP.
Gerasimov doesn't have a nickname? How sad. He kind of looks like Chekov from Star Trek. Can we call him General Walter?
No.
Putin should follow Hitler's example and take person control over military operations. That's how you win!
"That's right, Comrade General. A big promotion for you. Now step over here to the window so I can point out where your new office will be..."