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Raw data: Betting markets are losing faith in Trump

Published on 15 Comments on Raw data: Betting markets are losing faith in Trump

Via Adam Ozimek, it appears that even the betting markets are starting to lose faith in Donald Trump:

Last month Trump's lead was 21%. Today it's 5%. This is probably the closest thing you can get to a pure vibes take on the election.

15 thoughts on “Raw data: Betting markets are losing faith in Trump”

  1. zaphod

    Yeah, I've been following that. It seems to show that at least some people are getting uncomfortable with Trump, at least to the extent of risking money on his chances.

    I saw an article that said Trump is now a billionaire on paper, because of the Truth Social stock price. This might be a good thing. There is nothing Trump loves more than money. Seeming to have so much of it now could make him feel vindicated and overconfident. So I look for his self-defeating verbal statements to continue and maybe intensify.

    1. iamr4man

      Isn’t buying stock in DJT kind of like betting on Trump? If he is anointed “President” that company should be worth quite a bit, I would think. If he loses it will likely go bankrupt.

      2. aldoushickman

        "If he is anointed 'President' that company should be worth quite a bit, I would think."

        Why, exactly? Social networks gain value through having lots of users and network effects. Will lots of people start using a garbage social network just because one of its major shareholders is president?

        I don't doubt that it would be worth a lot less if/when Trump loses, but I don't see him being president increasing the value of truthsocial from its already crazily over-valued current situation.

        1. Yehouda

          "Why, exactly? "

          Becuase TRUMP will become a dictator and force this company to be valuable. At least that is what people expect.
          I think it is clear he will try to become dictator and may succeed, but it is not obvious he will still need DJT in at that point.

    2. name99

      "at least some people are getting uncomfortable with Trump"
      Maybe, maybe not.

      Another way to view it is a rising belief that he will die before the election. Apparently chatter about his poor health is rising.

      The most interesting thing, I think, is what happens after he dies (in office or not).
      One timeline puts him on the Reagan canonization trajectory; another puts him on the post-Stalin trajectory (ie Secret Speech within the Republican Party, rule changes [basically "less democratic primaries"] to make sure his like never get power again.).

      I can't say which of these two will fly. The post-60s experiment with grass-roots democracy in the form of primaries has been, IMHO, an abject failure, but it's considered taboo to say that. Would the GOP take advantage of the relief at death of Trump to go against that taboo? Hmm.

      1. smallteams

        The fly in that ointment is that this is a King James bible, not a translation most of the White Evengelicals like much. It will be interesting to watch.

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