Normally presidential candidates try to play down their prospects before a debate. That way they have a better chance of "beating expectations."
Does this work? I've always had my doubts. But we're about to get a destruction test of the theory from Joe Biden—though not from the candidate himself. From his opponent. Donald Trump has spent so much time claiming that Biden is a doddering old man that Biden will beat expectations if he just manages to stay upright for 90 minutes.
My money still says it doesn't matter. Regular people just judge on vanilla performance while political pros are in on the game. Neither cares about expectations.
What will happen, though, is a super heightened sensitivity to every facial tic and pause from Biden. Just wait and see. At the other podium, Trump will ramble mindlessly the way he always does these days, but he'll get nothing more than the usual fact check that no one pays attention to.
Just get him started on sharks. He'll be out of commission for a half hour, minimum.
😄😄😄
Dinger.
I re-watched the first debate from the last election which we had saved on TIVO. To say Trump came in "a little hot" is a gross understatement. That man needs a canine shock collar to shut him up.
I think it was a mistake for Biden to agree to share a platform with Trump. He would have been better served by declaring he would never lower himself to argue with a man one jury found guilty of fraud, whom another jury found had sexually assaulted a random stranger in a department store change room, who faces trial for stealing classified information and for betraying his oath of office, and who to this day refuses to accept the result of the 2020 election.
I hope I'm proved wrong, but I can't imagine any way in which these farcical events might help Biden, and lots of ways in which they could damage his re-election prospects. At best, they'll leave public perceptions unaltered.
Biden was in a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't situation. He could either lower himself to debating Trump, which is the equivalent of wrestling a pig in the mud ("you just get dirty, and the pig enjoys it"), or he could have declined, which would have absolutely set the "Biden's too senile to debate Trump face-to-face" narrative in concrete the rest of the campaign. I agree with Kevin. Biden will do fine, thereby "exceeding expectations," and Trump will act like a complete raving loon as he always does and nobody will give a shit.
Also, he was at least until recently behind. For awhile he was way behind (several points in the key states at one point).
I actually think they were considering using the "we won't share a platform with a felon" excuse for avoiding a debate where Biden would make age related gaffes, but honestly even if they were ahead that wasn't really going to fly. Everyone was going to know that reason was phony and they were trying to avoid gaffes.
But once Biden was clearly behind in the polls, they had to debate. They made the best deal for themselves they could, but they had to debate.
I believe that the 2020 debates helped Biden, largely by undermining the Republican talking point that Biden was too old. Since then, the Trump campaign has doubled down on the “Biden is too old” message, so the same thing is likely to happen again this year.
The previous times I can remember, trump worked very hard to get inside the other one's head-- stalking Clinton, talking over and interrupting Biden. This time, with no audience and a cut-off mic when Biden has his turn, I'm thinking he'll be muttering unbelievably vile things about Hunter and Beau pitched just where Biden can catch it but the mic can't. And/or he'll start out on his own time with the same kinds of insults and accusations. And I do expect him to bellow over the cut-off mic at some point. But I'm unsure about the heavy-duty sniffing he did with Clinton. Has he been doing that lately?
OTOH there's always the chance he could be more like a normal person! But what's the percentage in that for him? It would only disappoint his adoring cultists.
So for Biden the key to the whole debate coverage will be the put-down line(s), just like in 2020. I hope he holds steady through the barrage and times that one right. The bigger point will be to give trump enough scope to show his true colors to a wider public for a change, and maybe change the media normalization of his routine insanity.
Trump has no idea that a person named Beau Biden ever existed.
"Beau" Biden? Sounds fake! Like "Eric" Trump.
I’ll believe in the cut-off mic when I see/hear it. Not that I don’t believe it exists or it works. But I just really doubt media - with their love of Trumpian off-the-cuff ramblings - will actually use it. Maybe they’ll use it once or twice to prove that they have it and “aren’t afraid to use it.” But will they use it repeatedly all debate long as Trump constantly tries to interrupt? Very doubtful.
The media are like Mrs Cartman from South Park. There was exactly one episode when she managed to ignore and silence Cartman with the help of a dog trainer, and then when she felt lonely and ignored and bored with her own life, she immediately unleashed Cartman to be a nonstop abuser again.
I expect similar to happen with Trump. Even if the media manages to shut him up once or twice, they’ll eventually relent because they miss the thrill of covering a lunatic.
You're probably right. Politico observed a few days ago that "the mic rule could create a more stifled event. Many of the best moments from past debates have been small asides or interjections made when it wasn’t the candidate’s turn to speak." Because that's what "debates" are for: to see who has the best zingers!
I can easily imagine the producers muttering "This is boring! Leave the mics open!"
Perhaps wishful thinking on my part but I don't think very many people are aware of how much worse Trump is than 4 years ago. The press protects him by only showing quick clips of his rambling incoherent speeches. I think there is a reasonably good chance that his incoherence will be too hard to ignore in a 90 minute debate. Biden can stay on topic--Trump cannot.
I still think there is a good chance Trump doesn't show up.
I’m with you on this. Trump has been sheltered by only talking to the loyal base who don’t really care what he says. Now he will be exposed to the general public and this time around his condition is much worse than previously. They’ll probably boost him on adderall but that may not do more than make him agitated. He won’t be able to stalk President Biden and his mike will be cut so he can’t filibuster.
I also agree with Mr. CA… below that Trump is thinking very seriously about a way out. During the trials he always says he wants to testify, but when push comes to shove he backs out. I wonder what excuse he can try to provide?
I'm sorry, but the notion that the general public hasn't been exposed to his decline is ridiculous.
More, the problem is we've been overexposed and desensitized, his tics normalized.
You are not the general public, nor am I. The general public is (for example) the several voting-age members in my school's Young Republicans club who, when asked (eight months ago or so), didn't even realize TFG was running for president. That's the general public. They haven't seen it.
Guess trump can get Adderall even when it's in short supply. And if Biden doesn't submit to an examination that proves he can recall & recite 5 items, trump will have his excuse.
If Trump even alludes to any sort of cognitive testing I hope Biden says “I’m more than happy for us both to have a cognitive test as soon as the debate finishes if you’ll also agree to be drug tested at the same time.”
I will be surprised if Trump actually shows up. His team must know he will do the pratfall of all pratfalls. He's so much worse this time around. My money says Trump folds and cancels with some stupid excuse.
We're waaayyyy past the point where Trump acting insane and imploding in a public appearance has *any* effect whatsoever on how people perceive him. Remember, he's not a politician, he's a cult leader. Like I said above, he'll show up, the debate will be a complete shitshow, Trump's antics will provide weeks' worth of fodder for late night comedians, and that will be that.
if he backs out, he'll use the excuse thar Biden was afraid to take the cognition test.
That, or the gag orders he's under-- top court in NY denied his appeal of the original Merchan one, and rulings are still pending on revisions from Merchan and Cannon. Any of these, like the dementia-screening test, is an excuse just waiting for him to fall back on (in complete bad faith, of course).
I think regular people DGAF about debates.
Actually, I think that most people tune out politics on a day-to-day basis, but will pay attention for a debate like this just to sort of see how they do. Usually the debates don't happen until at least after the summer conventions, however, so we'll see if people are willing to tune in now just as summer's getting started, as opposed to, say, September.
The only reason to watch is for gotchas and gaffes.
Let them play. This is the closest we get to duels nowadays, let's see who came with what.
It's all for naught if Biden doesn't spot Trump's cognitive blips, call them out for the viewing public, and twist the knife so to speak. And to reel them in, he needs to pepper the debate with dad jokes.
The "Why wrestle with a pig..." quote comes to mind. I don't know why.
+++
BTW, if you don't know why, perhaps you are also suffering from some cognitive decay. 😉
"What will happen, though, is a super heightened sensitivity to every facial tic and pause from Biden. Just wait and see. At the other podium, Trump will ramble mindlessly the way he always does these days, but he'll get nothing more than the usual fact check that no one pays attention to."
Assuming that's true, and it is to a certain extent, then the problem has a lot less to do with the candidates and a lot more to do with the delusion that democracy is a spectator sport. In reality, anyone with the legal right to vote, and anyone with the ability to influence the decisions made by anyone with the legal right to vote, is a player. The only question is whether the player is on Trump's "Dividers" team or on Biden's "Uniters" team.
The game is simple: Biden's team wins, and we'll continue to have freedom. Trump's team wins, and we will all be saying goodbye to freedom.
Which side are you on?
You’re spot-on with ‘Teams’ — the degree of polarization and identification with a party is extreme. Democrats think (correctly) that Obama was a good campaigner, and (incorrectly) that Biden is a poor one, but Biden defeated TFG by a wider margin than Obama beat Romney. What that says to me is that, while nothing Trump does will cost him any votes from his team/cult, he is incapable of doing anything that will gain him a significant number of votes beyond that.
I agree, Biden is under-rated as a campaigner, mainly because he isn't an inspiring speaker in the Obama/Bill Clinton mold. (There was quite a gap between FDR and Clinton with nobody to feed the hunger for that kind of oratory except Mario Cuomo.) The biggest strengths Biden and his people have are patience and timing. Spring is far too early to be bringing out the heavy rhetorical weapons, no matter what the polls indicated and no matter how badly the politics-involved Dems were flipping out.
Uninvolved and semi-involved potential voters generally won't pay attention until much closer to Labor Day. So I think this debate is aimed at setting up Biden's preferred framing in an event the ho-hum-nothing-matters media can't ignore (because it's part of their standard election storyline) and that it will at least create an alternative narrative to what's out there now that can do its work through most of the summer.
Most of what they've been doing so far seems to fit with a strategy that prioritizes timing. Fingers crossed they've got it right this time, like they did last time.
Freedom...Which side are you on?
"I support free speech"
Republican 74%
Democrats 45%
2023 poll
When a D thinks "free speech" they mean the right to peacefully protest, express unpopular political opinions, and debate controversial topics.
When a R thinks "free speech" they mean yelling the N-word at their neighbors.
You said it better then me.
Neither is true. Today's Democrats are like Republicans in the 1980s: They have very religious views (Woke Puritans), most are anti free speech. and most think we are at the End of Days (Climate "Catastrophe")
You should include the link it a one-poll result like that; I won't research, but doubt that it was conducted by a respected researcher in a responsible manner on a wide number of people.
Today's "Republicans" tend to drown out others' speech, block their votes, ban their books, & use public funds to indoctrinate students in public, private & parochial schools.
Generally, they all remind me of Stefanik 's aggressive interrogations of university president's, interrupting when they attempt to reply.
IOW, I'll believe it when I see it.
The Biden Administration is likely to lose a Supreme Court case arguing that it violated many Americans' right to free speech through ordering bans at Twitter and Facebook.
All very telling for the media. Focus is not on the idiot but on the guy with the brains. Rabid bunch they are.
I have to agree. Why did Biden agree to this! And not once but twice. Such a waste of time but ratings for the media who are barking up the wrong tree.
Biden didn't "agree" -- Biden PROPOSED this. He has been in the driver's seat all along. That's a position of dominance, mastery. It's the Convicted Felon (can't say that one enough!) who "agreed" to debate.
Probably without even looking at the highly restrictive rules, which sometime late next week, he will "hear about for the first time", scream "WHY DID NOBODY TELL ME?!?" and then back out, like the spineless worm he is.
So Biden will win by default. Maybe CNN will have a nice 90 minute interview with him and his family, or something.
Yeah, I'm actually surprised the Trump camp agreed to these terms, especially the mics-off rule. The inability to yell and interrupt the other guy will put Trump behind the 8-ball and make the viewers focus on his solo answers rather than his antics, which won't go well for him. There's also no audience, which is Trump's element -- seeing what gets a rise out of the crowd and then running with that. But agree they did, so we'll see how it goes. My guess is not well, but it doesn't matter.
Trump only does well in front of an audience, and there won't be one. For 90 minutes without an audience (or a teleprompter), he'll get bored, which on TV look like low energy. Also, apparently Trump is not training for the debate and expects to wing it.
I think these debates will have lots of viewers, many of whom will only be paying attention for the first time. This debate is Biden's to lose.
They also can't use notes or cards, which doesn't matter, because Trump is illiterate. The one thing Biden has to watch is that he controls his temper. He loathes Trump -- for obvious reasons -- on a personal and visceral level. But he can't let it get to him and come off like "angry coot looses at guy he doesn't like". Trump of course will be saying all kinds of shit, baiting him, trying to lure him into getting personal, but he needs to resist it and come off like the reasonable (grand)grown-up.
When was the last time Biden blew up on mic?
This was exactly Trump's strategy for the first debate in 2020. His campaign spent months saying Biden was a doddering elderly man who could barely string 2 sentences together. It's why Trump kept interrupting and being so incredibly obnoxious. They though Biden would crack and break down or something. It didn't happen then. No reason to think it will happen this year. But that's Trump for you. Never give up on a losing strategy.
And in 2020 the media did not exactly scrutinize every Biden facial tic as you say, KD. They talked about how Trump was deranged. The most memorable moment was when Biden said "Man, will you shut up." and the whole country felt the same way.
trump was super obnoxious because he is a super obnoxious human being. what we saw was trump unfiltered
"What will happen, though, is a super heightened sensitivity to every facial tic and pause from Biden. Just wait and see."
I think people will notice, with no need for super heightened sensitivity, each time Biden stares into space for 20 seconds.
We get it that if Trump rips off his clothes while screaming that Mike Lindell’s pillows are attacking him and Joe Biden stares at him in horror and disbelief that you will say Biden stared into space and this proves he is senile.
👍👍👍👍👍
In March, 60% of Americans polled said they are not very or not at all "confident in Biden’s mental capability to serve effectively as president" (PBS News) That must be up to 65% today - only those who aren't Democrats.
Worth remembering what happened in 2020. The debate on Sept. 29 was three days after the "superspreader" event in the Rose Garden announcing the Amy Coney Barrett nomination (also the day Trump tested positive for Covid, per Mark Meadows's book). Trump conveniently showed up too late to the debate with Biden to go through the previously agreed-upon rapid testing protocol. Trump shared the stage with a man a few years older while Trump almost certainly knew that he was infected and contagious and that if Biden got sick and died, that would likely clinch the election for Trump. The decent thing, of course, would have been to reschedule the event but it was an opportunity too good to waste. A few days later, Trump was getting on a helicopter for treatment at Walter Read. Biden, luckily, escaped unharmed.
The stars may not align so conveniently for Trump this time, but expect skullduggery of one sort or another.
(There's a lot of speculation that he won't show, but I think that's way off base.)
Agree, he and/or somebody in his camp has just inconceivable ugliness or harm in mind. All the things he hasn't been able to say about everybody involved in the NY trial and the DC case have been festering away, and this event will bring him face-to-face with his nemesis. His only framework is dominance/submission. Internal pressure on him is immense. I have to wonder what Mary Trump is saying about this.
I won’t watch it live. Presidential Debates are dumb under normal circumstances. Now they are unhinged. Trump won’t debate or answer policy questions. Heck, I half expect him to attack Biden. I hope the secret service is ready for a fight!
That crossed my mind. Trump crosses the stage and threatens Biden pro wrestling style. The SS comes out and separates them, a made-for-TV dominance moment.
I think Biden should treat Trump with disdain at every opportunity. Emphasize the word "fraud", as in fraudulent university, fraudulent charity, fraudulent business practices, and fraudulent election claims. Talk about his felony conviction and the convictions of his cronies (Manafort, Flynn, Stone, etc.). Talk about Trump's admiration for "savvy" Putin, and mock his "love" for Kim Jung Un. Make it clear that Trump is a man of zero character. Getting into the weeds on policy will not help Biden. Do not treat Trump with respect. He doesn't deserve any.
Needle TFG about infrastructure bills: Biden skunks Trump
Biden was much too protected these past years against any chance of him being rattled in a debate or interview. Trump wasn't and is capable of responding. Crazily maybe but the point is not to win over the other side's voters, but to give them reasons to not vote at all.
So here's my pessimistic prediction: Biden will be flustered if Trump hits below the belt, the way a rule-abiding boxer would except he's in politics. He will react as badly as he has done when someone shouted "Gaza!" He will slowly seek words when he should show he's fast. He may not be more in cognitive decline than Trump but it doesn't show in the same way. Trump is fast and Biden is slow. That's what the debate will be about. Unfortunately.
Have you watched Trump lately? He repeats himself endlessly, and screws up words even when he's repeating them. Talks like he has a mouth full of marbles. Watch yesterday as he repeatedly garbled the word Milwaukee. That's not speaking fast, that's barely speaking at all.
True, and no I haven't watched Trump lately due to some allergy, but his garbling doesn't seem to cost him vote intentions and the debate won't alter that, I think. But Biden has been less exposed and I'm not convinced he won't lose votes if he is slow during the debate or looks stunned.
Let’s make a date to watch the debate next week. I think Biden will do better than expected, which isn’t hard based on the very low bar that Republicans have set. I think Trump will be exactly how is is right now, which is way worse than most people remember.
I listened to a discussion about this on Morning Joe's program, and Michael Steele made the best point. There is no good political reason for Trump to debate. Also the rules about cutting off mics and having no audience are very disadvantageous to Trump's modus operandi. Trump is increasingly mentally challenged, but his lizard brain is still intact, which means he mostly knows when when to fight or flight.
James Carville on the same program said he would put up even money and bet that Trump will not show up. If I had the money to take that risk, I would also.
So, if both do show up, and Biden is too slow and/or cannot handle Trump's below the belt attacks, then so much the worse for Biden. I do not expect this to happen, but if it does, the silver lining is that Biden may reconsider finding a reason to drop out of the race.
So you want Biden to drop out & trump to win the election? Who do you think might be able & willing to enter the racecard thst ste date, or even get on enough ballots to stand a chance?
Some "silver lining!"
I think you would be (pleasantly) surprised.
I have a friend who claims that the first side that gets rid of its "geriatric" will win.
And what your friend's track record in prophecy?
😂😂
Her female intuition matches my male intuition.
And also my hard-won knowledge of the American electorate since 1960.
And yours?