Spy whale, my favorite spy, is in danger of being replaced in my heart by spy balloon. But first I have some questions:
- If it really is a surveillance balloon, why would China send it over? It's not likely to go unnoticed, after all.
Do they have much control over it? I assume not, or else we'd be demanding they send it somewhere else. This means China had no way of knowing exactly where it would go, right?- Do we have spy balloons? Or is there a balloon gap?
- How often do the Chinese send spy balloons our way?
- Is it possible that the Chinese balloon was actually designed to spy on Uyghurs or something, but then escaped? That would fit China's general MO.
- If we can't shoot it down, can we launch paint balloons all over it so that its cameras become useless? That would be sort of an elegant solution.
- Midwesterners are always complaining that nobody pays attention to them. Now they're complaining because someone is paying attention to them. They need to make up their minds.
Just keep the balloon away from California, OK? We have enough crap in our skies already.
There's an unidentified balloon over Costa Rica also.
https://www.teletica.com/nacional/por-que-autoridades-evitaron-derribar-globo-que-no-tenia-autorizacion-para-volar_328526
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Actually, it's possible to have some idea where a balloon will go once launched. Once you get up high enough, the winds are fairly predictable - within certain error bars, anyway.
The Japanese actually used this in WW2 to launch balloon bomb attacks on the continental US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fu-Go_balloon_bomb
A more contemporary and successful example of high altitude balloon location control would be Project Loon.
Don't the Chinese want their balloon back? How can it be returned if we don't shoot it down or seize it (surely we have balloon capture technology - there must be an item for that in the defense budget). Is it supposed to float around the world until it winds up back in China (if that's where it came from). If it's really a weather balloon the Chinese should prefer that we return it to them.
Weather balloon people say the standard drill is to fill the balloon with helium and let it go. It slowly ascends to 100,000 feet and bursts and the payload descends by parachute. The problem comes when the ground crew is in a hurry and doesn’t fully fill the balloon. Then it ascends to 80,000 feet and floats around the world.
Do weather balloon people use 16 solar panels on their balloons? A comparatively quick trip to 100,000 feet followed by bursting and payload return seems like something accomplished with just battery power. Solar panels imply “long term” power.
Also:
-- what can a balloon do that their satellite surveillance program can't already do as well or better?
-- is there supposed to be a six-year-old boy on board?
i presume that a balloon with equivalent camera technology would get much higher resolution pictures since it's much closer to the ground than any satellite.
but also much, much more obvious and less control over where it goes.
There was a suggestion on a post at LGM that it's not for optical surveillance (satellites do that just fine) it's to intercept communication signals. I don't know if that's true or not, but I think it's safe to assume the military would have shot it down if they considered it any kind of threat.
Have you folks never seen a hot air balloon? You steer by picking the altitude with the wind currents you want. The payload on that thing is apparently the mass of several busses; if they don't have navigation controls, it is because they didn't want them.
Balloons have been used for espionage since at least the 40s, and almost certainly earlier. If the US doesn't use them, it is because the Pentagon leeches figured out how to sell something that eats more tax money.
If Montana doesn't like it, they should do something about it. What do they want, welfare? Bootstraps, people.
Update: Balloons were used in the US Civil War, mainly for intelligence, but also for explosives delivery.
Suddenly, everyone's a balloon-warfare expert.
Update: Balloons were used in the US Civil War, mainly for intelligence,
Update: Balloons were used more than a half century previous to that, by Napoleon, also mainly for intelligence!
they were also used in ww I for observation/artillery spotting. going up in one was a good way to die.
i believe the balloon itself was described as the size of three buses. that's not the estimated payload mass.
Mark Sumner at daily Kos suggests that it's a weather balloon which wasn't completely filled with gas, so that it never reached the altitude at which it would burst and release its instrument package to parachute to the ground.
It’s hard to believe the weather balloon theory if there are, in fact, two of them.
It’s hard to believe the weather balloon theory if there are, in fact, two of them.
Why? Is there some particular reason they couldn't have sent up two, maybe a day or two apart? Perhaps the send up dozens over the course of a year.
Sumner's theory is that underinflation prevented the balloon(s) from reaching the proper altitude, which, had they done so, would have caused them (by design) to explode. Perhaps there was an equipment malfunction with their air pumps, and it affected multiple balloons?
Burst, not explode.
Right. "Burst" is the very I shoulda used.
When I heard that an airplane hit one of the twin towers I thought it could have been an accident. When I heard it was two I knew it was terrorism.
I’m not buying the fuck up theory at the moment. If that were the case I would expect it to happen occasionally. That doesn’t seem to be the case. Also, as Rick Jones noted, why the solar panels? Also, and I get it that the Chinese Government isn’t exactly forthcoming with information, but why wouldn’t they have indicated the accident to relevant air traffic people in order to avoid problems with aviation etc.?
When I heard that an airplane hit one of the twin towers I thought it could have been an accident.
Surely the odds of two passengers jets coincidentally ramming into the same office complex in NYC fifteen minutes apart are infinitesimally smaller than an equipment or personnel malfunction affecting more than one balloon.
Also, as Rick Jones noted, why the solar panels?
Presumably to power the balloon? That would be the same whether it's for spying or weather.
why wouldn’t they have indicated the accident to relevant air traffic people in order to avoid problems with aviation etc.?
To me a more compelling question is: why would the Chinese have deliberately sent a spy balloon over US territory where it could be monitored, tracked and shot down, when they have spy satellites? To my mind "fuck up" is easily the more parsimonious explanation.
According to the US National Weather Service almost 1800 weather balloons are released every day world wide. About 900 stations, two balloons a day.
+1
Sumner also asserts one cannot control where a balloon goes. The Project Loon folks would likely disagree.
Also, a weather balloon’s up/down trip would be short. Power from a battery would be quite sufficient. So why 16 solar panels? Solar panels implies needing power for a sustained period.
Are these things a threat? Doubtful.
Are these things weather balloons? I’m not convinced.
That's not my reading of Sumner. He indicates an improperly inflated balloon can't be properly controlled. That's seems plausible.
Here's all you need to know about this balloon:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/3/2150855/-Balloon-floating-across-Montana-almost-certainly-a-weather-instrument-that-failed-to-reach-altitude
From that missive:
https://x.company/projects/loon/ for an example of people who were doing just that.
I am also keen to know why a weather ballon, intended to fly up to very high altitude and burst to return its payload, a trip which would be measured in perhaps hours, would require solar panels. Solar panels - for example those used with the Project Loon balloons - are to provide power over days and weeks.
The picture accompanying this article suggests there are 16 of the things. Figure perhaps 200 watts a panel (peak) that means 3200 Watts (peak). Call it 1.6 kW on average. What sort of instrumentation on a weather ballon would need that kind of power?
Space. Lasers.
While I still wouldn't want to be struck by one, a measly ~1 kW would be pretty lame as a "Space. Laser." ... short by at least one if not more orders of magnitude.
Why send a balloon when satellites are so good for surveillance? Because a balloon might provoke an attempt to shoot it down, which would reveal characteristics of US air-defense systems that the balloon is instrumented to acquire. The Pentagon isn’t taking the bait. I think the Chinese assumed we would have to fire on the thing, because they would feel compelled to do so, as a matter of national pride. We Americans didn’t just fall off the turnip truck. I assume we are using only passive tracking, plus normally-operated surveillance systems.
a balloon might provoke an attempt to shoot it down, which would reveal characteristics of US air-defense systems that the balloon is instrumented to acquire. The Pentagon isn’t taking the bait. I think the Chinese assumed we would have to fire on the thing, because they would feel compelled to do so,
That's plausible. I have seen one or two credible-sounding sources suggesting it had to be deliberate. And, the Chinese may have thought: in worst case scenario—if Pentagon doesn't take the bait—it will at least cause political problems for Democrats and help the Weaken America Party.
I have come to have great respect for Mark Sumner for his really superior reporting on Ukraine. I don't know if he is right on this....but this analysis at KOS seems pretty good.
A smart man being smart. Best Wishes, Traveller
Eventually, if the world really is round, it will go all the way around.
So, reasonably, the only probable use for it is that this is their way of sneaking up on India. Diabolical.
I’d be more impressed if the balloon was clear with a second ballon shaped like Mickey Mouse’s head inside.
I don't know how people can joke about this when the very existence of the United States is under threat (Senator Marsha Blackburn). The balloon may well have been launched from Wuhan, and be packed with bioweapons (House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer).
I haven't been so scared since that alien spaceship loomed over the Capitol.
I thought the alien spaceship attacked Bowling Green.
Phobes gotta phobe. What do Republicans phobe about? Basically everything. What's disappointing is seeing Democrats freaking out about Republicans freaking out.
As was pointed out by Mark Sumner over at the Daily Kos, a lot of weather balloons are launched in various countries. The are relatively inexpensive (compared to a satellite launch) and useful for checking atmospheric and radiation conditions. The course of this balloon appears very consistent with an unpowered balloon following the upper atmosphere currents around the North Pole. Under and over inflation is not uncommon. Over inflation will cause the balloon to burst before reaching the desired altitude. Under inflation will cause what is being seen here. A wandering balloon.
China also has their own spy satellites that are on a par with US tech. If they want to find out what we're doing they can do that pretty much any time they want.
The US too has spy satellites, yet continues to fly electronic intelligence gathering flights just outside various countries. That suggests there is still value in such activities and that satellites are not the be-all and end-all.
Of course, the United States is capable of making such flights because it has bases and friends around the globe. The Chinese do not posses such things - at least not near the continental United States. A high-altitude balloon could be the next best thing. Especially if it could be described (however (un)successfully) as just a weather balloon.
Are these things a "threat?" Open question which depends on how one defines threat. But neither am I convinced (yet at least) these things are just weather balloons.
"Phobes gotta phobe. What do Republicans phobe about? "
Well, living in LA, I was treated to two successive days of "OMG, Asian hate is everywhere" based on two shooter incidents which both turned out to be *Asian* shooters.
So yeah, phobing is pretty equal opportunity.
I love the idea of paintball snipers attacking it from a helicopter. Splatsplatsplatsplatsplat!
At 80,000 feet altitude, good luck with that...
Years ago spy satellites sent their film canisters back to earth using parachutes. Planes grappled the object as it floated down. I wonder if the military is thinking about doing the same thing which is why they asked Biden not to order it shot down.
Air Force obviously needs more biplanes.
https://youtu.be/oTAuT6ZMZXM?t=586
Useful too against giant apes.
If it's receiving, and it should be if it's worth anything, feed it poison. Broadcast malware isn't a direct attack...
Spy balloons? Is this the Battle of Antietam?
As it happens, we don't have spy balloons but we are developing them. Again, I ask why?
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/05/u-s-militarys-newest-weapon-against-china-and-russia-hot-air-00043860
Apparently, an advantage is that their path is unpredictable. It isn't clear to me how that is an advantage.
Finally, allow me to point out that the human sucking alien entity from Jordan Peele's film Nope looked an awful lot like a balloon and spent the beginning of the movie hanging out over a ranch.
wikipedia:
Fu-Go balloon bomb was an incendiary balloon weapon deployed by Japan against the United States during World War II. A hydrogen balloon measuring 33 ft. in diameter carried a payload of two 11-pound incendiary devices plus one 33-pound anti-personnel bomb (or alternatively one 26-pound incendiary bomb), and was intended to start large forest fires in the Pacific Northwest.
Between November 1944 and April 1945, the Imperial Japanese Army launched about 9,300 balloons from sites on Honshu (the largest and most populous island of Japan).
The balloons traveled on high-altitude and high-speed currents over the Pacific Ocean [jet stream] and used a sophisticated sandbag ballast system to control altitude on their three- to four-day flight.
On April 1st, the US DoD ought to play a wonderfully spectacular prank and launch the US' advanced Tako Balloon -- https://onepiece.fandom.com/de/wiki/Tako_Balloon -- flying undetected over China.
I'm more a fan of the Taco Balloon!
https://www.orientaltrading.com/taco-18-mylar-balloons-3-pc--a2-13964104.fltr
Of course it wouldn't go unnoticed. That's almost certainly a big part of whatever China is up to.
They're already using the US response, such as it is, to bang on their grievances.
“project loon” as a web search would probably be interesting.
Uh, has anybody asked the most important question yet? Namely, assuming the worst[1] at every decision point, how much intelligence and of what quality could this construct gather? Sheesh. This isn't rocket science folks.
[1] Actually, the worst (IMHO) would be Captain Trips.
"Each day, hundreds of weather balloons around the world undertake this dramatic, near-space voyage. More than 70 years after scientists sent up the first experimental weather balloon, they remain the workhorses of modern meteorological forecasts. Whether it's a tornado warning or the weather report on the 6 o'clock news, weather balloons are what keep people on the ground tuned in to the meteorological workings of the upper atmosphere."
From the How Stuff Works site... You folks really need to get a life.
So the Biden administration went to all that trouble to shoot-down a weather balloon?
It's a fishy balloon otherwise the US would bring it down just to stop the uproar about it. I don't buy the worry about debris hitting human settlements. If weather balloons were so dangerous I think we'd have heard about it earlier.
While a fishy balloon, it does not menace national security in any way, otherwise the US would certainly bring it down.
So my hunch is, it's a fishy balloon the US intelligence community wants to gets its hands on, but they're scared if they bring it down slowly, it will autodestruct, so they're looking for a better way, not speaking their minds because otherwise someone in Chinawill push the destruct button.
I'd hope the administration provides some transparency on what they have found. If it's a spy balloon, they ought to provide the evidence. The PRC will make up some bullshit excuse ("doctored evidence!") but objective analysts should be able to sift through what's what. And if it's found to have been a weather balloon, we should learn that, too, even if it's embarrassing to the US.