Can someone tell me what's going on with the Russian army? Nothing I've read truly seems to explain its epic incompetence. I mean, I know all about the maintenance issues and the logistics and the pallets and all that stuff, but Russia's operational problems go way beyond that. They seem literally unable to accomplish anything.
The longer this goes on, the more boggled I am. Is US intelligence equally boggled?
(a) Do you want you to read unbiased analysis? Or claims that flatter your political opinions? Because it quite clear that almost all Westerners are much more interested in the second...
https://static.rusi.org/special-report-202204-operation-z-web.pdf
https://im1776.com/2022/05/03/the-war-dialogues/
(b) Does the problem you are trying to understand even exist (as opposed to being as mythical as the Ghost of Kiev)? What smarter minds seem to believe is
- the INITIAL attack was not meant so much as a military attack, more an intelligence operation (think Bay of Pigs, not Invasion of Poland). There was a real failure here, but it was a failure at the Intelligence level, not the Military level. (ie, try to get beyond some cartoonish fantasy that Russia is a monolith -- failure of CIA as opposed to failure of Pentagon).
- even apart from this intelligence fiasco, the initial stages of the operation as a military operation seem to have been suboptimal because the most experienced commanders had their most recent experience in Syria, and structured things as appropriate for that environment. This seems to have been realized and updated around two weeks into the exercise.
- the claims about logistics seem to be poorly sourced and in the same league as all the other propaganda nonsense we see in the western press (defeat of Russia has been imminent for a month now, at least...), only it seemed superficially more plausible because it included lots of good technobabble about tires and ammunition transport. But sounds plausible is not the same thing as plausible, which is not the same thing as correct.
- Russia seems to be engaging in the (sensible, and generally common behavior in this sort of war) of regarding it as at least in part a way to get rid of obsolete equipment from the Soviet days. Things may change if they start to see the war as a existential threat, but right now what's being used up is fifty year old equipment, not the latest and best material.
None of this this is to say the war was justified, that Russia is awesome, that Russia will eventually win, that Russia is a military superpower, etc etc. The issue is PURELY the question of "Has the war exposed Russia as substantially more militarily incompetent than was thought?" and I don't believe this has been proven.
And this is ALSO a very different question from whether Russia will have trouble maintaining their military effectiveness as sanctions bite. The Z-web PDF suggests it will, but this is unclear to me. Yes, the captured equipment contains a lot of western tech, but even a superficial knowledge of engineering makes it clear that the tech appears to be not especially leading edge, and very much dual use. In other words it will be hard to prevent Russia from obtaining more of it via trivial channels, or finding the equivalent from China.
Oh dear what dezinformatsia spin and bollocks.
Initial attak" it was a failure at the Intelligence level, not the Military level. (ie, try to get beyond some cartoonish fantasy that Russia is a monolith -- failure of CIA as opposed to failure of Pentagon)."
It was both, it was a complete operational cock-up from A to Z not merely the intelligence, but also the execution.
The logistical issues
Labelling "Western" the clear observations of a broad range of analysis is silly dezinformatsia regurgitation.
"Has the war exposed Russia as substantially more militarily incompetent than was thought?" and I don't believe this has been proven."
It has been proven in spades although the faiblesse on display on a grand scale essentially confirms that the issues of Georgia and Chechnia before that were never solved.
Dude. Unless you're implying that the purpose of the war is also to get rid of the obsolete conscripts that they have (/s if it's not clear enough), the "let's use up our obsolete equipment" argument doesn't really register with reality.
Of course, maybe Russia is hiding tens of thousands of super soldiers trained and equipped with elite-next-gen Russian equipment, ready to shock the world and take over Ukraine in no time, as soon as they've used up their obsolete equipment and inferior conscripts.
Oh my goodness. Putin launched an invasion in order to use up all his outdated war materiel. Once all the junk is gone…then he’ll bring out the good stuff. It was either invade Ukraine or have a garage sale? Somehow I’m just not buying your interpretation.
Lol! And +1
If they want to get rid of the old equipment, just imagine the market for it among Western collectors. Who wouldn't jump at the chance to buy a T-70 as a lawn ornament?
Umm, they tried to take the airports and failed.
They tried to send in supplies and they got jammed up.
...and then abandoned the supplies as they retreated.
Who's spreading information that flatters their political positions?
If Russia was the equivalent to the US or even France, the Ukraine wouldn't have any operating airbases today.
Translation: We mean to do that.
-- We mean to have lost in excess of 20% of our operationally available tanks.
-- We mean to have lost 1/4 of our Black Sea fleet.
-- We mean to have lost over 3500 pieces of military equipment.
-- We mean to have nearly run out of precision guided munitions.
-- We mean to have 3% of our total military personnel dead in 2 months.
-- We mean to keep going like this until we find our Pyrrhic Victory (or we're all dead), for every last Russian can still fight so long as there is one last Russian remaining.
-- We mean to accidentally destroy the infrastructure we needed to communicate securely.
-- We mean to communicate on unsecured equipment, so that we can be recorded, tracked, and targeted.
-- We mean to run over our commanders with our tanks.
-- We mean to turn Snake Island into our Hamburger Hill.
-- We mean to starve our own troops.
-- We mean to use anti-ship missiles against land targets.
-- We mean to run out of fuel and park our tanks and APCs on the roadside.
-- We mean to have to cobble together miscellaneous pieces of metal to use as armor for our vehicles.
-- We mean to pay privateers to move from a different war to this one, rather than use our "million man" army.
-- We mean to have our tank manufacturer shut down production.
-- We mean to create this brain drain, from Russia to the west.
-- We mean to push Sweden and Finland into joining NATO.
-- We mean for NATO to double its forces along our borders.
-- We mean to anger Israel and Jews by calling Hitler a half-Jew and claiming Israel supports Nazis.
-- We mean to have our supply lines and infrastructure mysteriously destroyed inside of Belgorod.
-- We mean to lose ground in Kharkiv, on the cusp of having our supply line from Belgorod completely cut off.
-- We mean to have four dozen of our drones taken away from us.
-- We mean to have lost 100 fuel tankers.
We mean to look like we're losing a war, so that we can win the war.
thanks
👏👏👏👏👏👏
It's possible that somewhere Russia has well-hidden reserves of high quality, up-to-date disinformation, but what they're rolling out now is staggeringly incompetent.
+1
Well, I guess if you ignore the fact that the Bay of Pigs invaders were 1400 paramilitaries with outdated equipment, while the Russian invasion involved over a hundred times as many personnel of a modern state’s army, navy and air force …
No, modern militaries sell their old stuff to less developed nations.
This is just laughable.
Here's the leaked damage control report on the Moskva:
https://twitter.com/GrangerE04117/status/1522643831736332288
"Overall, the ship was barely in fighting condition 14 days before the war and with its defensive systems in worse conditions. Layman's summary: the things that were supposed to work don't, and when they do they make other things not work. The Moskva was essentially a cripple, and that was their Black Sea flagship."
Another thing that was notable was interference between the MR-800 Flag primary air search radar and the SATCOM systems. Turning the radar to active scan mode (Ch. 3) would make the SATCOM system unstable and unusable.
These ships have a multi layer defence system of long and short range missiles with AK-630 Close-In Weapons System as a self defence last resort. Moskva sailing with no radar means no missiles can be used and her last (only) line of defence, the AK-630s were BROKEN, leaking hydraulic fluid, electronic sensors broken. Sailing blind and defenceless"
what kind of military genius backs up tanks and trucks along 40 miles of open road, creating essentially a 40-mile-long target?
Ouf course that is what any sensible military would donwhen trying to have a tank garage sale. How would people know what to take otherwise?
"Everything must go" is the actual slogan for this "special military operation".
Rather to my surprise, the first link at the start of your post contains a thorough and well-written piece, by researchers with solid credentials, and is full of fascinating insights.
The second link is more what I expected: An interview with two anonymous Russians whose sources are "people who know people who hear things."
Naturally, you appear to take the second as gospel and blow off the first when it contradicts your expectations.
So the above poster is saying that the war will be over as soon as they've used up all of their military surplus that they want to get rid of, sounds legit.
Along with those “surplus” guys operating it.
We all know that Russia has a whole bunch of super-duper-highly-trained soldiers and super-elite Russian weaponry, ready to jump into action as soon as they've used up their obsolete equipment and surplus guys.
They've learned how to clone Dolf Lundgren.
Saw somewhere recently that there's actually a saying in Russia, If you're not stealing from the government you're stealing from your family.
Pretty well defines a certain point of view. With the oligarch kleptocracy everything became secondary to hoarding money at any cost and preventing any kind of accountability.
Is it any wonder wingnuts are so enamored of it?
Wingnuts???? Bhahaha. More like beta wimps.
Do not feed the troll.
grifters got to grift...
Poor deluded Vladimir. He thinks his second tier corrupt kleptocracy can compete militarily and economically with the west. It can’t.
It's a goat rodeo:
1) Corruption.
2) Arrogance.
3) Poorly maintained equipment.
4) Poor training.
5) Officers instead of competent NCOs.
6) Russian army reliance on Brigade Tactical Groups vs U.S. style Brigade Combat Teams.
7) Widespread alcoholism.
8) Reliance on low-morale conscripts.
Meant "Battalion Tactical Groups". Coffee still kicking in...
This will be the topic of a lot of dissertations going forward!
It may not be very complicated. Russia is known for its corruption and has an isolated leader obsessed with recreating past empire. That is not a recipe for a well-prepared military that can communicate upwards reasonable views of what is possible.
I agree. It's a lot simpler.
Imagine if the US army was asked to attack Canada but their shoes don't fit, their paychecks haven't arrived, the last 3 checks were short anyway, you hear rumors of units being wiped out, 3 of your tanks broke down before you crossed the border, only 7 of the 10 you are supposed to have ever ran, and your only incentive for even going is to hope you get lucky and roll a 99 on your loot roll on whatever is left after the officers looted the place.
Not exactly the great war is it.
Putin and the Russian military's (mis)calculation was that most ordinary Ukrainians felt like they were being held hostage by a hugely unpopular, illegitimate "Nazi" regime and would welcome the Russians as liberators, allowing them to knock out a few pockets of resistance from the right-wing Azov Regiment and others with relative ease, moving fast enough to create facts on the ground before an ineffectual NATO and other countries had time to do anything about it -- just like Crimea. Bada-bing! They'd be back in Moscow in time for Easter dinner and a glorious May 9 celebration.
What facts on the ground turned out to be was that the vast majority of Ukrainians wanted to preserve their nascent democracy and pro-Western position, don't want anything to do with Russia, and are fighting the invaders tooth and nail, which the Russian forces were unable to counter except with a brutal war of attrition aimed mostly at the country's civilian infrastructure. NATO rallied around the Ukrainians and most of the world's major economies have imposed whithering sanctions on Russia and its corrupt oligarchy that are unlikely to be lifted any time soon, if ever. Putin will have reduced Russia to a third-world pariah -- but as long as he can convince average Russians that that's the fault of their enemies rather than his own hubris and foolishness, he's probably not going anywhere. In fact, keeping the populace desperate, angry, and resentful at the world forever, with him the only thing holding the NATO hordes at bay, is probably in his best interest.
I think the underlying issue is that we thought of Russia as being like a first world (OK: second world) nation, when it actually is a third world nation with a bunch of nukes.
Look at the classic banana republic militaries. Their armies are terrible. The rank and file are poor conscripts with no social engagement and who are mistreated and poorly trained and equipped. You might have an "elite" battalion or so, with resources put into making it reasonably competent, but this can't be scaled up. The navy will have obsolete equipment that has been poorly maintained for years, if not decades. It will mostly stay in port, and if it sorties this is unlikely to go well for it. The air force is the most likely to be competent. The pilots will be selected from the social elite. The maintenance will be outsourced to foreign contractors, and the money for maintenance will be available because airplanes are sexy and there are incentives to not lose those socially elite pilots to pointless crashes. The air force is likely to be the most effective arm of the military, though without deep resources for anything prolonged.
I have just described the Argentine military in 1982, but it s not far off the Russian military of 2022.
Isnt it really one of these things is not like the others:
1. Ukraine
2. Afghanistan
3. Iraq
4 Vietnam
Even with respect to 2, 3, and 4, the United States never achieved what anyone would have thought equalled total victory like everyone sees on TV with respect to WWII documentaries.
No country, not even the US, has been willing to make the commitment in terms of size of occupying force (and corresponding losses) to occupy a country since WWII.
Ukraine is a nation of 40 million with resolve to fight, ability to fight, and modern military support which at the moment is almost unlimited.
Russia is doing exactly what you would expect: destroying alot of stuff, almost randomly, but to imagine 200,000 ground troops can defeat and occupy a nation of 40 million is not the fact that Russia's military has a problem (which they do), its that the goal was not attainable from the beginning, period.
Unless Ukraine decides to give up, Russia is losing, and losing big.
This is just a demonstration of the limits of modern military spending. It works for defense. It has very real limits when in comes to defeating other countries and occupying them.
Ukraine and Vietnam would seem to be alike, governments with strong support of their people prepared to stage a long term war against domination by a foreign power.
Putin and the Russian military's (mis)calculation was that most ordinary Ukrainians felt like they were being held hostage by a hugely unpopular, illegitimate "Nazi" regime and would welcome the Russians as liberators, allowing them to knock out a few pockets of resistance from the right-wing Azov Regiment and others with relative ease, moving fast enough to create facts on the ground before an ineffectual NATO and other countries had time to do anything about it -- just like Crimea. Bada-bing! They'd be back in Moscow in time for Easter dinner and a glorious May 9 celebration.
Apparently during the Crimea takeover and move into Donbas region in 2014, there were any number of local Ukrainian officials and members of the military with ties to Russia or were opposed to the change in government during the Euromaidan Revolution in that basically allowed the Russians to come in and agreed to rule these regions in their stead. So it was logical for the Russians to think the same thing would happen again eight years later. But since that time both the Ukrainian military and intelligence have rooted out such people from the army and local government and change their tactics to resemble those in the West. Thus the result is what you see on the ground, one army that didn't think it had to fight against fierce resistance. And given the fact Putin has not called for general war mobilization in Russia, that Lukashenko won't do the same in Belarus or join fully in the invasion, this war is going to grind on and on because Putin can't stop it and save face and for Ukrainians its basically a life or death matter at this point ands the only thing negotiable is NATO status, not the country's borders which they demand the Russians leave
I think the initial idea was even more specific than the 2014 parallel.
Remember the paratroopers at the Hostomel airfield right near Kyiv in the first day or two? And remember that the first Russian government heads to roll were their intelligence people responsible for making Ukraine sweet for Russia? They were accused of looting millions of dollars that was (presumably) meant to buy people in Kyiv.
They didn't buy people, but probably they *were* telling the bosses back in Moscow that they were-- "yeah boss, all the right people are on the payroll, it's all good." With that assurance, the paratroopers were supposed to swoop in and make a lightning dash into the government quarters in Kyiv and round up Zelensky and his cabinet, who were supposed to be either held under guard by the Moscow people or kept tabs on by them to direct the VDV.
So within a day or two the whole government there was supposed to be nabbed and put on trial in Moscow or Kyiv, or just taken out and shot somewhere, and the long columns of regular troops that ended up strung out on the roads were instead supposed to just go motoring serenely into Ukraine for the victory parades and the ceremonies installing whoever was going to be the new Ukrainian Lukashenko.
Instead the paratroopers were massacred and their equipment was blown to smithereens, unleashing the cluster we've all been witnessing.
Pure conjecture, of course. But I'm willing to bet this was set up to be a quickie decapitation raid that got blown up at Hostomel because it was all based on phony assurances from Russian operatives in the field. And because the Ukrainians don't think they should be Russia's sock puppets.
Looks like peace talks are close enough that a ceasefire is near. When that is announced meeting between Z/P will happen. Putin is probably getting worried about the breeches in his security nexus. So it will be 3 small annexation points. No rest of Crimea. Ukraine joins Nato. 50% of sanctions will be lifted. Another 50% when Ukrainians are returned.
Oil 40$ by June????
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