Here's the latest from Monmouth University polling:
Forget everything else. Forget about whether the rollout of the vaccines was imperfect. Forget about Paxlovid. Forget about the CDC. This overwhelms everything else.
If Donald Trump and the rest of the conservative establishment had gone into full battle mode over COVID vaccinations, urging everyone to get their shots immediately, the crisis would be all but over. We all know just how effective the conservative media machine can be, and if Trump and McCarthy and Fox News and talk radio and Dan Bongino and all the rest had been telling their fans to get vaccinated, Republicans would probably be somewhere in the vicinity of 96% vaccinated too.
Everything else pales in comparison. This is who to blame. If conservatives hadn't deliberately fought vaccination, we would probably be the most highly vaccinated country in the world right now. And life really would be nearly back to normal.
POSTSCRIPT: You may be wondering if these poll numbers can possibly be correct. I don't know, but it doesn't really matter. Even if it's more like 60% vs. 90%, the conclusion is the same: conservative leaders are responsible for our low vaccination rate. It's almost beyond belief. Almost.
This sounds awfully close to making fun of conservatives, Kevin. A few years ago, you were admonishing all of us progressives, liberals and moderates to spend more time empathizing with their concerns and refraining from any hint of judgement over their life choices or beliefs.
What was it Emerson said about foolish consistency?
Or, as people I knew perverted the expression, "Consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds".
(Because all consistency is foolish, I guess? Maybe those turn of the century friends I had should ask Nate Silver for residuals every time he admonishes people for not checking their priors.)
Austin, I see not the remotest small iota of "making fun" in Kevin's post. I see disgust, blame, and the feeling of helplessness that accompanies the knowledge that the situation is not caused by the intractability of nature, but rather by the intractability of deliberate, self-selected human stupidity.
If you think that's "making fun of..." then you have a mighty weird sense of humor.
Ok. Disgust and blame aren’t exactly showing empathy though either, and the targets of both emotions usually don’t think positively towards the people exhibiting those emotions. Maybe “making fun” wasn’t the right phrasing… but Kevin’s post certainly isn’t empathetic or non judgemental either.
You bet your ass is isn't empathetic or non-judgmental. As well it shouldn't be.
I disagree with people who are concerned about inflation to the extent that they favor clamping down on economic measures I think are good for the country. I don't think they're stupid or evil just because they disagree with me, and I can have an intelligent discussion with them about why I believe the way I do, and about why they believe the way they do.
But don't expect me to show empathy, or withhold judgment, for people whose deliberate anti-science actions have caused HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of needless deaths in the USA. I despise them. And the leaders of those mindless lemmings? The leaders who know the truth, and knew it a very long time, and deliberately lied to their mindless followers for political purposes?
What should I think of them? I promise, empathy isn't on my list of possibilities.
Years?
Try yesterday.
@uatin
so let's unpack this.
Do you disagree with the statistics as presented? These appear to be reflecting the data as it is presently known.
Do you disagree that vaccinations would drastically impact the present state of the pandemic? Unless you can refute the data for, perhaps, Vermont, this is also a fact: vaccinations may not stop infections but the reduce hospitalization and greatly reduce deaths.
So it would appear that Kevin's argument that the present state of the pandemic is due to conservative intransigence is factually supported.
And there is nothing in the commentary making fun of conservatives: th is is observing that conservatives seem in capable of accepting, and responding to the data.
Is there a reason why you are making an unfounded stylistic criticism to try to deflect a justifiable and fact based observation by Kevin?
Nope. That isn't a stat. That is a made up straw poll. Simply not possible it's right. If it showed 80% for Dems and 70% for Republicans, I could believe it. Lying like Monmouth did based on "polling" hedonics is pathetic and grounds for arrests.
This sounds awfully close to making fun of conservatives, Kevin.
Pointing out that conservatives are engaging in dangerous and deadly anti-vaxxerism isn't remotely close to "making fun of them."
Get a life.
We ought to permanently retire the Darwin Award after awarding it to the conservatives.
I would point out that the Fossil Fuel Industry, its subsidiaries, political flacks, and disinformation machine are still in sharp competition.
Killing their own followers in order to improve their chances in the midterms.
American right-wing covid denial seems to be our biggest export these days, with countries like Germany now trapped in the same fight against the pro-covid nutballs.
It is really quite remarkable just how willing people are to put themselves in danger in order to signal their group membership.
If it were not for Trump and the modern day afflictions of our conservative countrymen, life would be "nearly back to normal" in so many other ways than epidemiological...
Kevin’s absolutely right about this, of course. There’s another aspect to this and the Republicans growing Bircherism. Mainstream politicians and political parties tend to avoid seemingly crazy things like bring against public heath measures or catering to Nazis or neo-confederates or the KKK because they fear they’ll be made to pay an unacceptably high price by the other party.
The modern Democratic Party is simply incapable of being relentlessly focused on ruthlessly exploiting Republicans craziness. The Democrats (with notable exceptions) have so internalized conservative narratives that they become an essentially nonpartisan political party that’s no longer capable of waging a political campaign. The Democrats think it’s a sage political strategy to outsource political attacks to the media and the villagers good judgement.
They’re still waiting for the referees. I really hate to say it but the Democratic leadership is simply hopeless. They are incapable of engaging in politics. From times to time the people give the power or outsiders win important victories but, ultimately, our leaders somehow manage to squander those things.
If the Democrats were relentlessly and ruthlessly driving home the responsibility of Republicans for the Covid-19 crisis, things might be different. But if they are passive, the only thing that might change is that Trump will replace Biden before 2024.
And of course, you have evidence, unimpeachable evidence, evidence that is as exhaustive as it is definitive for your claim. I know you do, because otherwise you wouldn't have made it, let alone put it in such flatly declaritive terms /s.
We’ve all seen the same things over the years. These are the conclusions I’ve drawn and opinions which I have formed. If you think my interpretations are wrong and my opinions poorly formed, you are certainly free to criticize them.
The modern Democratic party does not have a propaganda department. Unless you count the Lincoln project, which I don't.
Every day you hear how this is currently a crisis of the unvaccinated, and the liberal establishment is full bore on getting vaccinated.
But we live in asymetrical times. The conservative base starts from the assumption that all liberals are the enemy. They add policy from there.
The liberal based does not now, and has never started from the same assumption. It took days before they would even call the traitors who stormed the capital "insurrectionists."
Wrong approach that got the Democrats in their current situation
“When they go low, we go high”
Michelle Obama
Much better approach for Democrats and, generally, words to live by in politics and in life:
I'm a kind person, I'm kind to everyone, but if you are unkind to me, then kindness is not what you'll remember me for.
Al Capone
Did somebody say "the Republicans growing Bircherism"?
Maybe the new Bircherism is the same as the old Bircherism. In the news today, the Republican mayor of Anchorage turned off fluoridation of the city's water in October. Just for a few hours, but it feels like we're right back in the 1950s.
In other John Birch news, it turns out GOP dirty trickster Joseph Schmitz had a role in the Jan. 6 failed coup, writing a document that Jim Jordan used to get Mark Meadows to direct Mike Pence to stop the EV count. Schmitz is the son of John Schmitz, one of the original Birchers and a former Orange County member of Congress, whose political career came to an end when news broke that he had two out-of-wedlock children with one of his students where he taught college. If the name Schmitz doesn't ring a bell, you may remember John's daughter / Joseph's sister. She was Mary Kay Letourneau, the teacher who made news in the '90s for raping her 12-y.o. boy student and giving birth to his child. What a family!
I saw that report too. No doubt the mayor was acting to stop the commies from sapping his precious bodily fluids.
https://youtu.be/rKR32ImWYzw
The Republicans have basically rehabilitated all the old kooks. The faithful followers of brother John Birch are out, proud, and in the current mainstream of American politics. Truly amazing.
Robert Taft won.
Vili Fualaau is a P-I-M-P.
Considering the state of vaccination in the rest of the world the answer is not much would change. Despite letting things go unchecked there was never a threatening variant here. They came from India and probably South Africa. We are already delivering a lot of vaccines world wide.
@Special Newb
but of course if we had been highly vaccinated, the new variants would have had trouble gaining a foothold in the US.
You are of course correct, that we need to ensure that the entire world is effectively vaccinated, but this does not detract from the negative impact fo conservative intransigence in getting vaccinated.
Shh, there is a narrative to be maintained. Nothing which happens beyond American shores matters...
Much as I loathe the conservative media and conservative leaders right now and much as I think the fact that they keep playing footsie with the anti-vaccine crowd and even whipping them up, I think these guys are riding the typhoon more than they are controlling it.
Look at Trump getting booed at his own rally when he brought up the vaccine and the fact that he is vaccinated. He immediately backed down. Trump knows how to find the applause lines but he can't get his crowd to applaud at anything he wants. He's the slave of the angry right id of this country more than he's its master.
Look at Trump getting booed at his own rally when he brought up the vaccine and the fact that he is vaccinated.
I remember this event. But this was well after he had left office and after he had begun engaging in anti-vax rhetoric. Widespread cooperation with vaccination efforts on the part of the MAGA movement is almost inconceivable (because it would mean cooperating with a government led by a Democratic president). But Kevin's right: it would have made a huge difference.
But there was a path open to Trump/MAGA/GOP/Murdoch that would have allowed them to do the right thing on vaccines and enable them to bash Dems and own libs: make the pro-vaccine case in explicit anti-mask, pro-freedom terms.
But that would've translated into fewer dead Americans. And these folks are all about maximizing the death toll.
I tend to be with realrobmac on this. I think there tends to be overestimation in the leadership skills of Trump and others on the conservative side rather than a knack to know what people want to hear and a willingness to tell them that.
I think with respect to white ehnonationalism it's definitely the case that Trump tapped into something that was already there.
But I heard practically nothing in the way of anti-vax sentiment on the right in 2020. If anything, there was widespread glee in MAGA circles at the prospect that Trump would get massive credit for bringing vaccines online, and fear/suspicion that "lib scientists" would slow-walk the approvals until after the election.
If Trump had secured a second term, vaccination rates would be much higher in the United States. right now That's abundantly clear.
Swedes are known for their high level of trust in their authorities, which among other things means that we to a very high degree follow even what is simply recommendations from our authorities. I just realized that we are probably still far behind american republicans in the blind following department.
You'll see highly vaccinated states, e.g. VT, still having major outbreaks. That's because 15% of the population is still a big number--but also because those 15% are in clusters. You'll see more break thru infections--those caring for the un-vaccinated, so lots of exposure.
Fifteen percent is a VERY big number, when you're looking for carriers. If they're concentrated in clusters, that increases the odds of the other folks surrounding them becoming infected. OTOH, if those 15% are spread evenly throughout the geography of the state, then there are no "safe places."
With that many unvaccinated people still circulating around, there is no good distribution.
No it's not. Not do cases matrer. You still don't get it.
For the original covid, there was talk that vaccination levels of 70% would be good enough to stop the spread. As later variants proved to be more infectious, that number has gone up. There were also discussion about having the vulnerable vaccinated, and not worry much about healthy individuals--but large number of cases still overwhelmed the systems.
We're still mainly in the Delta Wave in the US, and it's still mainly a pandemic of the unvaccinated, esp. where death is concerned. Hospitals are straining, but we don't seem to hearing about crisis standards of care as much--the Delta variant is killing people faster (or their denialism means they are waiting longer to get care), so some beds are open. Ok, some conjecture on my part... The celebrities questioning vaccinations are either vaccinated or go for the monoclonal antibody treatments though they'll talk up horse pills while their followers, well, die...
Right. I've long suspected the "uneven" geographic nature of US vaccine hesitancy creates a multiplier effect beyond what we'd see if the exact same level of non-vaccination compliance were spread evenly throughout the land. This has only gotten worse as travel has increased, because these pestilence-ridden disease clusters are free to spread disease to higher-vaccination regions.
Republicans are the enemy. Not your fellow citizens, not your friends… the enemy. Do with that info what you will, but don’t forget this fundamental fact. It ought to result in a different governing strategy from democrats and the Biden administration but it hasn’t. There is something wrong with our response to their hatred.
This is interesting. Kevin sees a a situation whose answer is about as simple as what color is the sky and, instead of writing a snarky contrarian post, he tells us that the sky is blue. This is gratifying enough that I will overlook that he seems to think he has solved the Gordian knot rather than acknowledging facts that have been glaringly obvious to most of the rest of us for at least six months.(Well, obviously I didn't; I can be snarky too.) And why does he seem to think we (or more likely he) would question poll results that are roughly in line with every poll we've seen for months?
I think Trump gets a lot of credit for at least not preventing his government from doing Operation Ward Speed, but gets all the blame too for turning his cult into antivaxers.
However, unless we were willing to more or less shut off the country from the rest of the world for a lot longer than we did, we would still be wearing masks and talking about 1x 2x etc. boosters.
I'm with Gov. Polis (D-CO). People have made their choice and like so much performative conservative bullshit, unless they suffer consequences, they will do it again.
Lol,75% of adults are "vaccinated" . Blacks the least by actual raw released data. Trump is irrelevant and antivaxx??? Please.
Sorry, but this poll is made up and proven wrong time after time. Please stop posting it.
Lets also note, 80% of white adults are "vaccinated" . Monmouth lied, much like they always have. 96% of Democrats are vaccinated???? Right. Nope, nada and no.
Assume the following
Every death is a voter
Country is split 30/40/30 between Republicans, Independents and Democrats
You are 12 times as likely to die if you are unvaccinated.
If you aren't now, you are unlikely to get vaccinated.
1,000 people a day die.
Half the people dying are Republicans, 370 are Independents, and 120 are Democrats. A net loss to the Republicans of 387 voters every day. Something like 120,000 net votes lost to Republicans.
I guess they really are the stupid party.
I wish the GOP political apparatus were half as stupid as that of the Democrats (hey, what could POSSIBLY go wrong with unilateral disarmament on gerrymandering!!??).
For the GOP, the political harm created by a few hundred thousand extra deaths—significantly concentrated in areas where they enjoy unassailable, overwhelming margins—isn't going to outweigh the benefit they derive from a more intense domestic covid19 situation. That's especially true when you take into consideration vote suppression policies targeting Democrats AND their growing arsenal of elections nullification policies.
Sounds about right for adults. CDC has about 84.5% of the population as having at least one dose. If 30% of the people are Republicans, and half of those don't get vaccinated, you'll have a population that's about 85% vaccinated. (strictly back of the envelope/first order approximation).
Vaccination rates among Blacks is about 75%-80% for that of whites (not sure if adjusted for differences in age groups), though is higher in some states. Other relatively large racial groups have same or higher rates as whites--not sure when vaccination rates picked up for some of them.
Different sites for info will have different percentages, but same relative patterns--the Kaiser Family Foundation reports lover overall levels of vaccinations.
> If Donald Trump and the rest of the conservative establishment ... urging everyone to get their shots immediately, the crisis would be all but over.
> And life really would be nearly back to normal.
Sorry, but this shows that liberals/progressives/democrats (and MSM + establishment in general) are delusional about covid.
"if we only had everybody vaccinated it would be all over". Nope, don't think so.
It would be, if the vaccine was like an actual vaccine - neutralizing and preventing infection. But it is not. While it was sold (by MSM + politicians) as "get vaccinated, be protected, your life will be back to normal" (e.g. no masking and no social distancing needed), CDC/FDA admit that vaccines do not prevent infection and transmission. Vaccine defenders say "we always claimed that all the vaccines do it reduce severity of symptoms". Technically it may be true, but it is dishonest, because this is not how the vaccines were sold.
Several European countries have near 100% vaccination rate (i.e. Ireland). If Kevin's point was valid, these countries should be back to normal. Are they? Nope. Don't think so. They are doing just as well or badly as much less vaccinated countries.
There are 2 aspects to vaccines - public health and personal health. As far as public health is concerned, current vaccines are largely useless since they don't prevent infection and transmission. They do work for personal health since they do seem to reduce symptoms. But my personal health is my own business, not Kevin's or governments business.
I see dishonesty about vaccines from FDA, CDC, gov, MSM, etc. E.g. recently FOIA request was submitted to FDA to get the paper-work they used for vaccine approval. FDA said "sure, we will release it by 2076". If everything is on the up and up, what exactly is the problem with letting the public see the paperwork? FDA did work thought the paperwork in about 3 months, so they are capable of handling this amount of paperwork just fine. The FDA is required by law, in order to evaluate vaccine cost/benefit, to compute a number called NNTV (number need to vaccinate) to prevent 1 death (or 1 hospitalization). FDA has refused to do that. Why? Now vaccines for kids are being pushed; we know from Pfizer clinical trials that NNTV for both deaths/hospitalization is infinite, since in the clinical trails, in both control and treatment group 0 children died or were hospitalized. MSM pushed the narrative that many kids (actually ~180 in the USA now) have died from covid. Yes, but all these kids have had health issues; recently from Germany (and Sweden) that was report that 0 healthy kids have died from covid. All kids who died had (serious) health issues. 40% of these kids were already in hospice care. Etc. Etc. a couple of days ago, twitter changed misinformation rules; now it is against the rules to publish information that contradicts pronouncements from authorities. Publishing some of the CDC's own data would be against the rules. How is that not laughably ridiculous? So CDC/FDA = science? So scientific truth is determined by what the authorities say? Sorry, I don't think this is how science works. E.g. to show how CDC/FDA is wrong and behind the curve, in was clear in May/June 2020 that covid is mostly airborne; CDC/FDA resisted that, and only admitted in Nov 2020 that "ok fine, covid is airborne". So between June-Nov 2020 saying that covid was airborne was "misinformation"!!!! Well, it may be "misinformation" but it has the added benefit of also being true and a scientific fact.
Incidentally, according to stats, the two groups most hesitant about vaccines are the least (high-school dropouts)and most (PhD) educated. Perhaps high-school dropouts are too stupid to follow gov instructions. But isn't it weird that also people with PhDs are skeptical about vaccines? Maybe they know something that the midwits don't?
For the record, I am vaccinated.
Thank you kk for your well-written analysis. I can add this. Most of the people on this blog seem to have forgotten that when Trump initiated the project Warp Speed, candidates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris made statements about distrusting the vaccine because of Trump's involvement in the development.
I, too, am vaccinated. I just got my booster two days ago. But I am 61; if I had kids under 18, I would not have them vaccinated.
Ireland has ca. 76% fully vaccinated (25% with extra boost), with only one dose running ca. 1or 2% higher
The "90%" number being bandied about is for adults (from their health service) or from someone who calculated the percent if all doses went into the 2 shot regimen, ignoring the 3rd booster shot.
The current wave seems to have peaked, and, when compared to Feb., looks like deaths are way down. Not sure if latest wave due to Omicron, Delta than Omicron, mainly unvaccinated, breakthru infections, etc.
yes, the 90+% vaccinated rate for Ireland is for adults. my point is that Ireland is not (fundamentally) different from many other countries with much lower vaccination rate. so what exactly did the vaccines get them, in terms of public health? yes deaths are down, but that is personal health issue, not public health issue.
if you want to argue for kids being vaccinated, you should argue that vaccines are good for kids on personal basis. BUT the arguments made for children's vaccination are along the line "we need to vaccinate kids in order to protect grandma". This is first time in history, that we ask little Johnny to take a bullet for grandma. Up until now, e.g. the argument for vaccinating kids against measles has been that "little Johnny is (personally, individually) better off getting the vaccine, rather than going without".
I don't think getting vaxxed is "taking a bullet". I'm so sick of right wingism.
then argue that little Johnny getting vaxxed is good for little Johnny (personally) on the merits. show us some numbers. as in 1) risk (to little Johnny) if little Johnny goes without vaccine (risk of serious consequence/death of covid), 2) risk (to little Johnny) if little Johnny gets the vaccine (risk of adverse effects of the vaccine; assume vaccine is 100% effective so that no covid after vaccine).
stop the BS. just show us the numbers, ok?
Which actual vaccine(s) prevent infection? I rather doubt there is any vaccine out there which is 100% effective (which is the threshold implied by your wording). One can still get measles, or mumps, or rubella, or even polio after being vaccinated- it is just very unlikely.
What the vaccines do, however, is reduce the odds of infection and spread to a low enough level that spread is limited.
Yes, nothing is 100% effective. But most vaccines come very close (e.g. the measles vaccine as you point out). covid vaccine is fundamentally different - it is highly ineffective in preventing infection (and transmission) but quite effective in keeping symptoms mild (or non-existent). Also, effectiveness wanes (very) quickly, unlike e.g. measles vaccine which protects you for lifetime.
incidentally, a vaccine that does not prevent infection/transmission, but eliminates symptoms is actually, from public health perspective, a very bad vaccine. because if/when a person is infectious, he/she needs to know that, so that he/she can isolate. but if there are no symptoms, how are you supposed to know that you are infected.
Several European countries have near 100% vaccination rate (i.e. Ireland). If Kevin's point was valid, these countries should be back to normal. Are they? Nope. Don't think so. They are doing just as well or badly as much less vaccinated countries.
Ireland's 7 day daily covid death average is approximately 1/3rd as high as that of the United States. So, it appear your statement about how such countries are "doing just as well or badly as much less vaccinated countries" is wrong. To put it another way, the implication is that getting to Ireland levels of vaccination would save perhaps 20,000 Americans lives (and lots of serious but non-fatal illnesses with long term health effects) each month.
These vaccines aren't perfect. But they're nonetheless extremely effective.
getting to Ireland's level of vaccination probably (most likely?) would save a lot of lives in the USA. I don't argue with that. After 6-8 months (when vaccines effectiveness in terms of preventing infection/transmission is basically 0) it is still quite effective in terms of reducing symptoms (i.e. saving lives).
but this misses the point I am making. The big mass vaccination push is not made on the grounds "you should do it, because it is good for you personally" (because somebody who does not want the vaccine (for whatever reason) can easily counter this by saying - my health is my business and none of your business, so stay out of it"); instead it is made on the grounds that "you should get the vaccine because you need to protect the community". But the current vaccines do not protect the community! They don't prevent infection/transmission. For the community, your personal health (reducing symptoms) is irrelevant; preventing infection/transmission is everything.
Various measures (e.g. lockdown of the unvaccinated; the vaccine passports) are a dishonest joke. Vaccine passports are supposed to signal that the bearer is not infected and cannot transmit the virus, right? No? But we know that current vaccines don't prevent infection/transmission. Do you see a problem?
But the current vaccines do not protect the community!
Of course they do. In a variety of ways. Even if there were no mitigating effect with respect to transmission (which isn't the case) alleviating the strain on hospitals is "helping the community."
They don't prevent infection/transmission.
They most certainly do. (If you had put in the modifier "100%" I'd be in agreement.)
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211124-vaccines-reduce-covid-transmission-by-40-who
Also, there's plenty of pro-vaccine communication urging people to get jabbed because it will benefit them personally. Indeed, the bulk of it is geared toward telling people they need to protect themselves.
You seem to be living in a parallel universe.
Looks like a couple of plague rats have shown up. kk plays the faux-reasonable type, while lisagerlich is more the attack rat.
anything I said is factually incorrect, or substantially misrepresents the facts/truth? nice to see you resort to ad hominem attacks. this usually happens when you have no real arguments.
Out of curiosity, where did this come from? "The FDA is required by law, in order to evaluate vaccine cost/benefit, to compute a number called NNTV"
The other thing I'm noting if the polling data is right is virtually nobody is in the ASAP category for getting the vaccine and very few still in the 'wait and see' category. So we have about reached the point where anybody who is going to get the vaccine has already done so.
One of the delicious ironies of the whole Trump "the election was stolen" thing is that it assumes voters are too stupid to reject someone (Trump) who delivered: 425,000 dead from a pretty easily avoidable disease, and the worst unemployment (14.8% in spring 2020) since the Great Depression. Their argument is voters clearly wanted more if this abuse. Hilarious.
Maybe but George Lincoln Rockwell came in a strong second.
If you're completely shameless, and have no issue with the amount of harm you validate and promote, there's a fortune to be made giving social conservatives what they want,
https://old.reddit.com/r/ANormalDayInRussia/comments/rhe93i/a_normal_bed/
All down to the Fat Slug who HAS to be in the spotlight .
Pingback: Yes, words matter, and conservatives have a lot to answer for - Angry Bear
Pingback: A Defining Fact – Discourse.netDiscourse.net
Pingback: Weekend link dump for December 19 – Off the Kuff