Here's a chart of COVID-19 deaths that has long puzzled me:
This shows COVID deaths, so it's fairly reliable. What it shows is that, generally, the US has been about average compared to other similar countries except for three specific periods:
- Summer 2020
- Autumn 2021
- Winter 2022
In two cases, we have spikes that were unique. No one else had them. In the third (the recent Omicron surge) everyone had spikes but ours was one of the worst.
These three periods account for nearly all of the fact that our cumulative death rate is one of the highest in the world even though our case rate is one of the lowest. The first one can perhaps be blamed on Donald Trump declaring the pandemic over too soon, and the third one might be the result of a low vaccination rate. But that still leaves the second one. What happened there?
Don’t flus already sort of hit different regions at different times? This might even be more so the case due to different variants and how they don’t spread around equally through time. I think more work is needed to sort out the geography questions
That's an interesting point, although it looks like Kevin is trying to demonstrate that a bunch of other countries were in sync with respect to Covid spikes—except the US.
America (as usual) is the outlier.
We are compared with a bunch of counties in a different hemisphere (largely) or at least continent, and only one in this hemisphere/continent.
These three periods account for nearly all of the fact that our cumulative death rate is one of the highest in the world even though our case rate is one of the lowest.
Where are you getting the information that America's "case rate is one of the lowest" in the world? Reported cases are greatly impacted by how much testing a country does. I'd say data derived doing things like measuring wastewater are more trustworthy at this point.
The middle one: Labor Day Get to togethers/parties or Back to School?
2nd one was largely about low vaccination rate. That was the big Delta wave in the South.
For both the 1st and 2nd (where the infection spike is in August, deaths are delayed) I also suspect that there's a role played by the US being very unusual in terms of how ubiquitous air conditioning is.
Yep, this is it.
The first is about that first summer's COVID fatigue and certain politicians/places declaring it over or less of a concern.
The second is the Delta wave and low vaccination rates, particularly in red areas.
The story is basically the same on the third wave.
Pretty much everyone I know was vaxxed/booster by May 2021. I remember that spring/early summer - everyone was out and about. Restaurants were packed like it was 2019 again. No masks anywhere. We took an elderly friend who had been basically home alone for over a year out for his birthday. I remember it clear as day. We were all happy and felt like this thing was over. Within a week, mask mandates were back.
I think something is going around now - everyone complaining about allergies and "head colds". My wife just got tested because she has allergies and a fever. Schools are now "recommending" masks. Probably only a recommendation as even in my very, very Blue city people are done with it all and will flip out if any sort of mandates come back.
Autumn 2021 included the surge in cases and deaths after the Sturgis rally in South Dakota, which hit that state and neighboring states hard. It's hard to see that having a national effect though.
This is also the period when the Delta variant had a national surge and hit the southern states particularly hard. That was probably far more important.
+1 Except that it's easy to Sturgis having a national effect. People traveled from all over the nation to a central location, swapped viruses, and then traveled back all over the nation.
Of course, Sturgis is just a symptom of the broader Republican anti-vax, no mask, gather-in-large-groups trends that made spreading Delta so easy that fall.
So, it us from Forbes, but the reference NPR:
I have to wonder if Sturgis is as much observer litmus as anything else.
Delta hit particularly hard in states that acted like it was over in 2021. Florida Governor DeSantis keeps acting like his policies beat Covid but if you compare Florida to states that had stricter policies you see how utterly false that is. Up until Delta Florida’s death rate was within a couple of hundred deaths per million compared to California. After Delta Florida had over 1,000 more deaths per million than California.
I remember it clearly. In late summer of 2021 the vaccines were proving to be highly effective at preventing (pre-Delta) infections and the CDC was having a hard time justifying why masks were still necessary for vaccinated people. So they issued abrupt and confusing guidance that vaccinated people could now ditch masks indoors. Which means that unvaccinated people definitely ditched their masks, too.
Meanwhile, Delta was clearly on the horizon, and predictably it hit our unmasked population like a freight train that fall.
In my mind that was the single biggest pandemic failure of the CDC so far... they caved to political pressure, knowing well that Delta was out there, and basically made ever going back to mask mandates politically impossible for local leaders.
The key was the Democratic leadership and CDC opposition to vaccine passports. This totally played into the hands of the Republicans. As you pointed out, the defect in the CDC’s approach was that in the absence of vaccine passports, it was impossible to distinguish between vaccinated people and unvaccinated people. The predictable result was that incentives to get vaccinated diminished and Republicans we’re able to unmask, go everywhere indoors, and infect people far more easily than before.
How does it play into the hands of Republicans??? Vaccine passports were irrelevant.
Classic Mitch Guthman: blame the Democrats first, last, & only, as GQPers have no agency.
One of Joe Biden’s key campaign promises was to fight to defeat Covid-19. When he became president he could’ve fought to creates powerful incentives for vaccination. He could have done a lot of things but they would have required taking a stand and fighting with Republicans. So he punted. Everything from the time Biden took office was his choice, not Trump’s and not the Republicans.
Similarly, as you apparently concede, the result of the ill fated choice by the CDC to completely drop mask mandates for vaccinated people but without using vaccine passports was entirely predictable and was predicted in real time by almost everyone. But Republicans opposed vaccine passports and vaccines so they needed to be appeased.
Appeasement of Republicans was a mistake by the CDC and the Biden administration and it was their stupid choice.
One of Joe Biden’s key campaign promises was to fight to defeat Covid-19.
Daily covid deaths in the United States are down 95% (literally) since Trump left office. It's debatable how much the executive branch should be given credit or blame for such things, but slamming or praising the president for anything and everything is how US politics rolls.
In other words Joe Biden is delivering on that campaign promise.
So...the back to school without masks caused problems? I'm shocked.
Plus Delta.
Air Conditioning. Deaths lag cases by about a month so peak spreading was mid summer in both waves, when Americans are massed in air conditioned buildings. Europeans go outside in the summer
I think AC has a lot to do with this. You had a lot of Southerners spending time indoors with the windows closed, and very few were vaccinated for that 2nd wave.
Here in MN we had some shifting of the peaks because of weather. Our winter surges happen earlier, because the cold sends people indoors and pushes people to close windows sooner.
I think that’s a fair point. California has what is generally a very mild climate. Throughout the spring and summer, we’re able to spend time outside. And outside dining large saved our restaurant industry.
Anyone up to graphing the rates for the states individually to determine which states account for 1, 2, or 3--that might give clues as to the reasons for the divergences?
Actually, if you isolate US, Canada, and Mexico, you'll notice that all three have matching periods in their waves, pointing to geographically-related time shifts due to limits in travel/openings to tourists.
The first off-period bump in the US was not really a separate wave. It was the effect of the US closing down rapidly, followed by Trump announcing Easter as a target opening date, followed the return of a wave of first-order essential workers.
Right! I'd say Mexico more than Canada was ahead of the United States in June 2020 and August 2021. For both of those waves, the southern U.S. was much harder burdened than the rest of the country, but Mexico was getting it first.
It makes you wonder how many million doses of vaccine the United States shipped to Mexico in early 2021. Probably should have been more.
Dude, there should have been no lockdown, there was no real wave. Stop acting like managing mattered, it didn't.
I see:
1. "Post-NYC's big peak is over, inject some bleach and party on Florida's beaches."
2. Post-Labor Day
3. Post-Christmas
Post-Labor Day follows a giant general decline mixed with relaxed masking and a lack of vaccination mandates as well.
Post-Christmas (not "Holidays" for a reason) is Uncle Fox News coming to visit for once after 2 years away.
What's the confusion about?
As always a complicating factor is that the US is too big to treat.
I just did a scan of graphs on CDC. 50% of the Aug. 2020 peak is FL + TX. Likewise the Sep. 2021 daily deaths were ~35% Florida + Texas.
This does not hold so much for our above average deaths in 2022.
That doesn't entirely explain the issue, but it probably is a useful signal.
And yes, that is well above their percentage of population contribution.
Dude, US 28+ vaccination rate is 85%. US death rate is distorted high a bit because blacks.
Dude, would deaths have been higher or lower if the 2 dose rate was 10% higher?
Higher or lower If the 3rd dose/booster rate was 30% higher?
Try to keep up with the convo Bro!
"The first one can perhaps be blamed on Donald Trump declaring the pandemic over too soon"
That's some first rate Ph.D. epidemiological analysis right there!
That middle mystery peak in the US trailed a similar big peak in Mexico, so one could argue it had something to do with Mexico. More likely, it had to do with weather and precautions. Greece, for example had a smaller but similarly timed peak. Spain, France and others in the southern tier of Europe had a rising death rate around that time, but it was squelched, possibly because of resumed restrictions.
This NYT article (pay wall) examines why Australia, despite many similarities to the US, had just one-tenth the US death rate from covid.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/world/australia/covid-deaths.html
Still Trump.
Same nimrods that refused to do anything reasonable in 2020 were still refusing to do anything reasonable in 2021. Didn't you notice?
I was curious about why early September, and why the US and then I remembered; "2021 NFL season began on Thursday, September 9"