The recently discovered Omicron variation of the COVID-19 virus provides us with two immediate options:
- Calm down and wait for the epidemiologists to tell us just how dangerous it is.
- Start the countermeasures now before exponential growth has a chance to really get exponential.
These are both bits of advice I've been hearing from people I trust to have reasonable opinions, but they are diametrically opposed to each other. What's the answer?
Get your booster and just let it go. And, you know, perhaps international vacation travel is a bad idea.
60 people on a flight that landed in the Netherlands were Covid positive with some variant? Air travel is the easiest to control and the least costly restriction.
It looks like most or all of the people who tested positive were unvaccinated and were being allowed to travel on the basis of negative Covid-19 tests. This is a big part of the problem. We’re not restricting the activities of unvaccinated people specifically ; Instead for example, the Netherlands is going into a very severe lockdown in which everyone will be adversely affected. Wouldn’t it have made a lot more sense to simply require people to be vaccinated to get on an airplane?
The vast majority of people in the Netherlands have chosen to be vaccinated. Yet they will suffer so that unvaccinated people can be allowed to spread the disease without being inconvenienced. That’s where we’re going wrong.
My body, their choice
is official policy everywhere.
They are literally zombies.
But unlike the 1990s hit song, they are less human than human.
Not if you are a woman in Texas 🙁
And meanwhile…
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/namibia-start-destroying-expired-vaccines-due-slow-uptake-2021-11-25/
These places were always going to have a tough time getting the vaccine program going. Now they also complain of travel bans “punishing” them. What are the rest of us supposed to do?
Some guy on CNN just now said travel bans were good but maybe too late then a minute later wondered if sharing info on variants would be less common because of travel bans. The whole discussion is incoherent.
Yes, I thought the analysis was bizarre. But then it’s hard to wrap my head around South Africa’s argument that having been the breeding ground for the new variant because of their low vaccine uptake, and having done the hard work of discovering it, they ought to be allowed to spread the new variant to the rest of the world unimpeded by rational public health measures.
I just attended the Trevor Noah standup set at the Moda Center last nite, & he had a pretty good explanation for why it's not right to say Omicron is a South African variant: the Rona is a global disease, & repeatedly evolving, & this most recent variant discovered happened to be isolated in South Africa. & why? Because South Africa has some of the top disease science research teams in the world -- after dealing with similar shit in the 90s during their HIV/AIDS spike. Omicron isn't an South African deal; it's just more of the Rona.
Fortunately, Noah didn't go on to say, as would have his Daily Show anchor predecessor, that the Rona is a bioweaponized planned Chinese assault on the world to paralyze international commerce, cooperation, & trade so that the CCP can come out on top, like when Hitler did the Blitz over England or bin Laden sent Muhammad Atta to flight school.
All of southern Africa needs to walled off for now. We should also simply give them 100 billion for their trouble.
Shorter Brand Newbian: "P.W.T. Botha made some good points".
Israel is banning all travel.
So are a couple of other countries
Omnicron now in Canada, Germany, UK etc
I watched the interview with the S Afican scientist
She was both re-assuring and troubling at the same time.
Cases are not severe, but are impacting the younger crowd.
I think travel could be a problem. Cruise lines should suspend all operations until we find out more
I just think it’s crazy to let people move around. And the basic problem is that we keep opening up too soon and without requiring people who want to get on planes or eat in restaurants or attend sports events to be vaccinated. We keep prolonging the pandemic which increases costs and fatigue with measures like masks and travel restrictions.
Also, I think that I heard that same interview. Apparently the art of the followup question suffered the same grizzly death as irony: I understood her to say that half of the patients were unvaccinated which implies that the other half were vaccinated. That’s very different from the info from South African health minister who seemed to be saying all the infected patients of whom he was aware were unvaccinated thus implying few or no breakthrough infections among vaccinated people and probably the vaccines are effective against the new variant.
Mitch
One of the things they will (hopefully) take a look at soon is how long between exposure to onset of symptoms and the subsequent "I guess I better get checked out?"
If its 3 or 4 days then people who travel within countries - like the U.S. who don't want to know the truth then this will spread like wild fire.
Can we legitimately test every traveler? With 100% accuracy? I'm talking train, air and sea travel - for whatever reason? Can we let cruise lines dock in a foreign port where THEY may have vaccine hesitancy, or an unknown outbreak - only to have those passengers bring it back on board the ship?
Its a horrendous decision considering how childish out population is. I am watching the Israelis. Highly vaccinated, cohesive society. Willing to do what the government tells them to do. No need to filter stats because all are reported to their health care system (singular). If Israel shut down all air travel I suspect they may know something.
I think there’s exactly two choices and no middle ground. We need to eliminate movement in and out of countries on the Covid-19 “red list” and within safe countries we need to exclude the voluntarily unvaccinated from nonessential activities.
The other option is the Fox News plan which is to eliminate all public health measures and simply let the virus run its course. Hopefully, while this is happening, the vaccines will be continually updated so that more enlightened people and places can live more safely.
If indeed omicron is nasty and fast-spreading, just how established and spread would it become if we wait on the epidemiologists?
I asked Nate Silver, & he said the bigger issue is WHO skipping the Greek letter Xi so as not to confuse the strain with Strongman Pooh of the People's Republic of China.
I imagine the Xi Variant will become the new Let's Go Brandon.
WHO must forever kowtow it seems...
Kowtow to whom? Or were you just trying to insert an anti-Chinese dig at random?
At random? Hardly. WHO has been tiptoeing around China from the start. It was perhaps one thing to skip Nu. It is another to skip Xi.
Tiptoeing? Oh puh-lease
They went to the Greek alphabet because trying to differentiate between variant numbers was arduous, AND at the time they had 3 variants coming out of India so they had to do a better job to differentiate.
I don't think they thought of having a problem with Xi at the time, but I give them a kudo for being aware of the implication that a new variant would impart on China's president.
It makes it easier for the common folks to understand.
not to confuse the strain with Strongman Pooh of the People's Republic of China...I imagine the Xi Variant will become the new Let's Go Brandon
Dude, you should seriously trademark that shit. Huge market for it. Let's go Omicron!
I think it's too hard to pronounce also. But it is clearly appropriate to let the chinese wuhan flu be called Xi and be named after that despicable dictator.
Gzi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2Oh6f2CumQ
Isn't xi just pronounced kai, like the Theta Chis & Sigma Chis at my alma mater?
No
Based on past variants, we likely wont know how dangerous this variant is until its too late to enact useful countermeasures.
Can't be certain as to how dangerous this new pile of oily rags is until the fire has spread through most of the house. Everyone please react accordingly.
Given how childish half of the Earth's population has behaved since the beginning of this pandemic, is "start the countermeasures now before exponential growth has a chance to really get exponential" even a viable option?
Any variant as transmissible as Delta, or more so, is essentially certain to have been spread around the world before it's ever identified. Thus, travel restrictions put in place after the new variant is identified are extremely unlikely to fit into the category of "useful countermeasures".
Is there a reason that we can't both stay calm AND enact countermeasures, because we're facing asymmetric risk?
Because it's spread already. It's irrelevant.
Oh, a nihilist today.
Thank you Doctor Jay - this is what I was going to say too, a "calm panic".
Let the folks who can work from home work from home again if you made them come back.
Bring back the masks & social distances - DC for instance lifted the mask requirements they are not required for Capital One Arena - bad idea for Capitals games which are getting sold out again due to Ovie's magic and Wizards games because apparently they too are having a good season.
Require kids to get the Pfizer vaccine to attend in person school.
Quit being a Coronabro. #DBAP
Journalists and self appointed experts, the ones who are labeling themselves as influencers (the ones who are experts on handling social media but nothing else) are stirring up panic simply because it makes great headlines and it leads to a lot of “clics” and “likes” (meaning profits)
Wait until the scientists has evaluated it .
It’s important to be cautious but what we cannot do is put this planet on standby indefinitely
I agree. The countermeasures are no good if people evade them, which most people are probably going to do unless there is some solid information on the epidemiology. So get that information first.
I'm not waiting on data in hindsight to do some sensible things to avoid COVID. I got my booster shot on Monday, I'm blessed to continue working from home, avoiding in person Christmas shopping in crowded stores and wearing a mask for in person shopping when I need to go in person. Also not getting tempted to get Capitals Hockey tickets as mask wearing isn't required and the arena is full these days.
Hopefully this won't mess up my siblings plans to fly home for Christmas.
As someone else noted, I don’t see those two options as diametrically opposed. We can stay calm and start counter measures.
Could care less. It's not much different than the original variants from 2 years ago. More hype from the spinners of hype.
I name it boreicom. It's been around for months.
It's "couldn't care less" for god's sake. You could NOT care less. Get it? If you could care less, that means you care at least a little because you could care less. If you couldn't care less that means it's impossible for you to care less about this - which, I assume, is what you meant.
If you're going to act so cool and nonchalant about worldwide pandemics, please learn how to speak and/or type about it the right way, at least.
😊😊
Yes, well he is only one letter off from idiom...
Just to be clear: it seems to me that we need to do two really obvious things either of which would protect us significantly against new variants and also enable the world economy to normalize.
First, we needed to exclude those who are unvaccinated idiosyncratic reasons from public life and spaces through the use of vaccine passports. The idea of letting unvaccinated people on an airplane or in an airport is simply insane. This would also allow us to get rid of masks, which nobody likes, in very short order.
Second, it’s equally insane to allow the sanctity of patents to destroy civilization as we know it. For the present emergency, the drug companies patent rights must be overridden to allow a massive effort to manufacture and distribute the vaccines. Not for purely altruistic reasons but, as we’ve seen, the pandemic will not truly end until the gigantic pool of hosts for new variants is reduced or even eliminated.
For the future, the development of vaccines and other medicines is not something that’s appropriate for free enterprise. This should be undertaken by the governments of the world acting collectively and all of the resulting vaccines or drugs should be available for manufacture in every country. Cheaper and better for everyone except big pharmaceutical companies.
Lol, most adults are vaccinated moron. That isn't going to help. Considering how down yry actual sickness is, maybe you should educate yourself.
Spades is such a treat. Unlike other forms of social decay, you can safely ignore the troll.
Again. Much like OC43, this coronavirus is highly contagious and bad for the elderly. The best immunity comes from nature. It prevents spread greater in the short run and helps the body in the long term build immunity at a greater clip than a coronavirus version of the flu shot. For 98% it is just a cold(and indeed, it may feel like a bad cold for many). When they get it, it is a step closer to a pandemic end and endemic rise, which we are seeing now.
And the other 2 percent? They don't catch it from their own genetics.
Kind of amazing how many incorrect statements you can pack into one paragraph.
1) 25% of US Covid deaths have been under 65 (7% under 50). Hardly just a problem for the elderly.
2) Natural immunity is a crapshoot that depends on how sick you got... you may end up with little immunity, no way you'll know. Vaccine immunity is far more long lasting and dependable.
3) Almost 30% of people who get infected (including kids with mild symptoms) end up with long lasting symptoms, some leading to complete disability. For some of those people those symptoms have lasted since the beginning of the pandemic and counting. This ain't just a cold.
Everything S-o-G says is wrong, every day. You'll wear yourself out correcting the troll.
👍👍👍
He is lying but you lick his nuts. 30% is not long term. It's around 1.4%. Pertiod.
Lol, 7% is less than seasonal flu
Deaths under Age 50:
Flu annually = 2500
Covid = 51000+
Are you sure you know how numbers work?
25000-50000 average flu season deaths under 50. Deal and accept.
The 25k to 50k is total flu deaths. The vast majority of those are over 50.
Maybe you're a visual learner and this will help. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1127698/influenza-us-deaths-by-age-group/
Nope, not lately. Pay attention.
Nope, 1.4%ish. Not 30%. Your not even trying and are just plain lying. Ban this loser.
Ok, I was trying to give you a tiny benefit of the doubt.
But yea, other folks are right… you’re just an idiot troll pulling number out of your butt.
If only somebody could create a virus that targets trolls to rid the cyber world of them shitting all over everything.
Wow, South Africa isn't even to 50 percent vaccinated. The US overall is at 59.1% vaccinated. That's more than half, so I guess that qualifies as "most"? I mean, covid is killing over 1000 people in the US a day. To you that's no big deal? What if it were your mother? Or your brother?
I go by adults, especially the elderly. You need a nostril twist.
It's a semi-literate, ignorant, racist troll. It posts to get attention. Please don't feed troll.
LOL ..and whatever insult you choose yourself.
You are totally wrong!
Very few adults are vaccinated since vaccines only has been accessible in very limited areas of this planet. New version of this virus will turn up over and over and over and over again and we few who has been vaccinated will panic over and over again
It's a semi-literate, ignorant, racist troll. It only posts to get attention. Please don't feed troll.
Bottoms up, Shootie. The worms turn.
One of the huge hurdles to getting the vaccine to places like Africa isn't the patents to much as the time to delivery of new vaccine plants - remember the fiasco of the Emergent plant in Baltimore, MD? Canada is also scrambling to have home grown vaccine plants and apparently there are plants in South Africa in the works but it take a ton longer than we have to get them up and running.
But this is a worldwide emergency so we need to make sure the efforts to spread manufacturing of vaccines around continues as fast as we can and then make sure that there are no patent hoarding barriers to cranking out vaccines.
I agree that production can be a bottleneck. But my assumption is that once generic manufacturers have the ability to produce lots of different vaccines with free licenses (but extremely strict quality control) the supply will be plentiful for future pandemics.
But also, quite intriguingly, the assumption that our relative integrity in things like drug manufacturing would rub off on the corrupt third-world countries has proven to be exactly backwards. The Emergent case is a good example. The management used political connections to get the contract, then used substandard quality to enhance profitability at the cost of many lives and permanent disabilities, and then used those same political connections to avoid accountability.
So there are key points to know - the RMA vaccines require completely different manufacturing plants and a highly specialized equipment/raw materials etc along with a sophisticated workforce so the current plants are all in first world countries. Most of the manufacturing of vaccines were in a few key countries all hit hard by the pandemic and hoarding doses for their own countries - India, China, US and to some extend Europe. I can't remember if the South African plant was to be for classic vaccines or RMA ones.
Those are good points but the western governments could expand drug production if they chose to do it. The bottleneck is the commitment to neoliberalism.
The other point is that once your vaccine is developed, it’s in western countries own best interest to make sure economic and other obstacles are overcome everywhere. And, equally, it’s essential to have mandates and vaccine passports implemented as soon as possible and as extensively as possible.
As much as I agree with you regarding vaccine passports I’m afraid it’s just one of those things that won’t happen. Trumpian anti-vaxxers are too numerous, too insane, and too well armed. And too many of them enforce the law.
Then it will be a long time before the pandemic ends in its country: perhaps years or even maybe never.
The reluctance to confront these people will also likely doom Biden’s re-election. People elected him, in no small part to deal effectively with COVID-19 and return the country to normal. If he can’t do that then he will be accountable for the situation, which might or might not be fair considering who is preventing us from dealing effectively with COVID-19 but then nobody ever said politics was fair.
Well armed??? Nope. Everybody is well armed.
I think it worth noting here that all this malfeasance was enabled by the tЯump administration, not the current one.
It’s undeniable and well with noting that the Trump administration drove the country into a ditch and that the GOP is basically doing everything possible to make sure that the country doesn’t fully recover before November of 2024. But acknowledging that doesn’t change the reality that Biden’s the president and he’s the one who will be held accountable by voters for the lack of progress in terms of normalcy and economic recovery. There’s honestly a certain rough justice in that because if Biden cannot bring himself to stand up to Trump, confront these people,and empower the measures which will defeat Covid-19 before 2024, he’s just useless to anyone.
You can point the finger of blame at Trump, and be absolutely right, but that’s not going to get Biden re-elected if we’re all still wearing mask and are terrified about getting sick or dying in 2024.
Well, ordering large employers (who collectively employ the majority of American workers) to require staff to get vaccinated would be a good start.
Oh, that's right, I almost forgot: Republican judges probably aren't going to allow that!
It’s really not a good response to say that there’s no point in doing things because the Republicans will block them unless the Democrats, and Biden in particular, are will to raise holy hell about it even minute of every day and point the finger at the GOP for every death or adverse consequence. The Wall St Journal already has an editorial attacking Biden for his inertness in dealing with Covid-19..
Yes, that the ultimate hypocrisy but the reality is that the Republicans aren’t going to give Biden a pass because he doesn’t want to have ill will with Republican governors. Following the strategy of waiting for Republicans to come around to his way of thinking is going to be a disaster.
He needed to make big attacks on Republican judges and keep putting pressure on them and their fellow party members. The referees aren’t going to do that for him; Biden’s going to be attacked no matter what he does, the difference is that if Covid-19 is basically gone and things are normal by 2024, he’d got a shot at re-election but otherwise he might as well just resign now instead of waiting to be tossed out.
It’s really not a good response to say that there’s no point in doing things because the Republicans will block them...
Agreed. I'm not advocating the view that there's "no point in doing things." The White House and Democrats in general (and the few sane Republicans, if they exist) should continue to push, fight and do everything they can to protect the country.
I was simply noting that, among the various challenges faced by America in its battle with covid is the unfortunate fact that much of its judiciary has been captured by a death cult.
Then we are agreed that the Democrats should fight. But, tragically, the leaders are congenitally incapable and the party itself is being destroyed from within by preening radical centrists and the two assholes. If we are not already too late, the party is surely running out of time to save itself and our democracy.
The patent rights aren't in the way of producing more. That's a smokescreen.
They're just damn hard to make.
It isn’t something that’s just for the immediate problem. It’s clear that our social and economic choices means an increasing number of pandemics in the future. I’m suggesting that the international community take over the business of development and, if necessary, the manufacture of essential pharmaceutical products. Whatever the obstacles, they must be overcome and perpetually tiptoeing around pharmaceutical companies patents and delicate feelings is something we can no longer afford.
The companies that manufacture the vaccines are expanding production as fast as they can. There is no reason to think that other organizations can do any better. This especially true of the mRNA vaccines. To build a new vaccine factory and get it running, you need an expensive building. That's not hard; both the materials and the trained workers to build the building already exist in sufficient numbers. Once you have the building, you then need to install very sophisticated machinery; the makers of that machinery have a very limited production rate that they are struggling to expand. You then need to train a workforce; every suitably trained worker in the world at present works in one of the existing facilities, which means that getting a new facility running means taking a cadre from an existing facility, thereby reducing its production rate. Finally, you need very specialized precursor chemicals and other supplies that are in limited supply because their only market is mRNA vaccine producers; the suppliers to the mRNA vaccine producers are themselves struggling to increase their production rate, while facing the same sorts of constraints as the vaccine producers. Remember that even in a brand new facility with a brand new work force, the standard is perfection. "Teething problems" will not be accepted as an excuse for letting a bad batch of vaccines get through that sickens or kills thousands of people.
There is probably no practical way to increase vaccine production faster than is already being done.,
That’s true for this pandemic and then only in the intermediate term. My point is that relying upon heavily subsidized for-profit companies is ineffective and unwise for future pandemics. Governments should have all of the patients and at least some independent manufacturing capacity.
BioNTech thinks they will have a good read on whether Omicron can evade vaccine immunity within a couple of weeks, and they say they could have a tailored booster ready to go in 100 days. Certainly waiting a couple of weeks before going nuclear isn't overly risky.
But I agree with the comment that the developed world needs to drastically increase the amount of vaccine available to developing countries, and fast. I read of a case in South Africa where a women with HIV had a covid infection that lasted more than 250 days. That is a great chance to see Darwin in action.
If Omicron isn't as fearsome as some people worry, it is only a matter of time before we encounter a variant that is truly nasty.
Uh, like South Africa cares.
Don’t feed the troll.
Elsewhere he says it's boricron. Troll isn't even self-consistent.
Has South Africa actually been short on vaccines, or have they been short of either arms to put them in or people to administer them?
I believe the country has ordered vaccines that have not yet been delivered from some manufacturers = google is showing a 24% Vax rate so not good at all.
South Africa's problem is the opposite. Too many vaccines, no patient demand. Antivaxxing is huge there. Just recently South Africa cancelled a number of vaccine orders because they have a ton of vaccine vials approaching expiration but no one willing to take the shots.
Yes, the problem isn’t our failure to export vaccines but rather it’s because we are exporting assholes like Tucker and the rest of the Fox News gang. We need to challenge all Murdoch family licenses and make major effort to get Fox bounced from all cable systems in major cities.
1 - Calm down
2 - Calmly strategize on counter-measures
3 - Calmly watch trends in all epidemiological data
4 - Calmly pounce with counter-measures as the calm epidemiologists see the need in any particular locations at any particular times
5 - Appreciate the value of having a calm President, a calm public-health establishment, and most Americans (not Republicans, anyhow) calmly get their shots, calmly behave prudently as they go about (i.e., wearing masks and maintaining distance), and calmly preparing to calmly get any future booster shots
6 - Did I mention how important calmless is when dealing with an ever-changing pandemic?
"But, but... I thought I was supposed to act like a deranged teenager who's parents are forcing them to do stupid pandemic stuff. It's not FAAAAIIIIIRRR!"
- actual quote from half of the Earth's population
99% of Americans over 65 have had a least one covid shot and 86% are full vaccinated. So not many anti-vaxers in this group of people.
For 18 and up in the US, 82% now have a least one shot, and 71% are are fully vaccinated. This is still climbing. Could be better, but not that bad.
Regarding half of the whole world, they aren't vaccinated because they don't have access to vaccines. Wealthy countries pre-ordered vaccine doses, and production can't yet keep up with demand for the rest of the world.
"99% of Americans over 65 have had a least one covid shot and 86% are full vaccinated. So not many anti-vaxers in this group of people."
But many with compromised immune systems (from age) and suppressed immune systems (from medications). Many got little or no benefit from being vaccinated, so one shouldn't pretend that there isn't lots of significant vulnerabilty in this group.
Drum needs to allow editing. Vulnerability.
WordPress - it has lother issues that I have difficulty with on another blog by a friend.
I don't believe that the individual blogger has control over the comments - color of input before posting or editing. But if you haven't paused after entering text in the box before posting, the text appears black & can be changed before posting.
Please excuse if you did know this. It is still an issue.
More than a few Americans had to be dragged kicking and screaming to get their shots (thanks mandates!), and regardless a significant percentage have turned other mitigation measures like masks into a culture war. Bring up the idea of yearly boosters and see how many tantrums we have to contend with.
Meanwhile, vaccine hesitancy is a huge problem globally, even in countries with limited access.
I saw that cdc stat ( although to be precise I think it was 98.5% not 99%) but I do not believe it. Just too high to be possible. Although 98.5% might just barely be in the possible range where I would only be greatly sceptical, they also report the % age of those 65 to 74 to be 99.9% . And absolutely zero chance that is correct . Just no way.
Have to think there is some sort of error with the cdc calculation. My guess is that they have a decent count of total shots but are
a) using an incorrectly low number for total population in that age range. So denominator too big . As older population grows , maybe they are using an outdated number . Even one from last census might be low enough to make a difference when getting that near 100%.
b) counting some second shots as first shots. Or third booster shots as first shots. Some maybe simply by bad recordkeeping as I bet default without more info is first shot . But also some people " cheated " by getting first shot before eligible by pretending to be someone different . Or got booster before eligible ( or to get a different type of booster) by saying it was first shot .
I suspect some of both. I have long suspected that some second shots were recorded as first shots as the gap between first shot and fully vaccinated seems too big . I guess our initial vaccinated numbers are a bit too high and fully vaccinated too low.
I do notice some counties, where there could be higher numbers of illegal immigrants than census counted have suspiciously high vaccination % ages. Maybe because some shots going into " invisible " people.
And , for the quoted stat to be true , you have to believe that 13 out of 14 seniors who refuse to get fully vaccinated still were willing to get one shot ?
Who really believes that?
Do your own research, troll. Most people here have by now figured what you're all about. Now take your sealion arse elsewhere.
Avoid crowds. No Black Friday for me. Or anyone else I know. Thanksgiving was a pared down affair (though still bigger than last years) of six. Chrismas will be mostly subscription, gift certificates, and cash. Et cetera, et cetera as the Man from Siam said.
Don't test -
It will go away by Christmas !!!!!
"When in danger, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout".
"Slow the testing down, please." It worked so well before.
Would anybody even notice it then??? Media blackouts. Case counts don't matter.
Don’t feed the troll.
The answer is do not hesitate to get vaccinated for even one day.
Continue to wear a mask. Wash your hands.
And avoid large gatherings.
I suspect that when Kevin wrote:
He was talking about not doing anything differently than what we are doing now, until epidemiologists have arrived at an estimate of how bad or not omicron is. I've interpreted that to mean not doing things like additional travel bans, lockdowns, etc etc... Not simply to remain calm while we do whatever we do, or not do.
Lockdowns ain't ever happening again
Don’t feed the troll.
It's time to PANICALM
Both works.
We have another outbreak going on here now. Get vaccinated and wear masks indoors.
On the testing side, we need to do a lot more sequencing. So get going on that too.
Travel restrictions? Need proof of vaccine.
New vaccine for new variant? Yes please. Pilot studies on ramp up production needed, so start now--and use that production to test efficacy. Even if the original vaccine is good enough, the new doses could help in new hot spots--presuming it is as effective as the old dose. Note: their "100 day" timeline sounds like that they presume there won't be any hiccups along they way.
Ramping up Merck and Pfizer pills. Should be done anyway. Will need to check efficacy with new variant, but I'd guess they'd still work. Not so sure about mono-clonal antibody treatment--that would have to be evaluated.
Yes, everyone is tired of Covid. But no one is calling for full on lockdowns just yet. We're not doing the China, New Zealand nor even Australia style anti-vax policies. We may need lockdowns in spots--but we're no where near that yet.
If this variant does hit hard, we'll have a vaccine and treatments to block infection after exposure. We may still have monoclonal antibodies to help you fight off the initial infection. What we might be missing? Front line health care workers. The pro-Covid party has really beaten them down, not to mention the actions of (some) hospitals. That will really hurt us.
The Merck pill turned out to be a nothingburger. Only 30% effectiveness and very serious concerns about the impact of the pill on both the virus and people who take it. For the people who take it, this drug (which has been under development and testing for a decade) has indicated a very bad safety profile and may be highly carcinogenic. From the viral side, the Merck pill works by forcing rapid mutations of the virus in order to try and disrupt viral functioning. For obvious reasons, a medicine that deliberately accelerates viral mutations needs to be carefully evaluated.
I had the same thought as you when fitst reading the description of the merck pill and how it works. Seems something that could be potentially dangerous to encourage mutations.
Years ago , I might have just assumed that the scientists understand better than I do so there must be a good reason why this concern is not valid. But I am way less trusting today after seeing so much bad and politicized and self serving and tunnel vision science, especially with covid .
And part of it is assessment of risk and even scientists tend to evaluate that poorly, especially when it is in their interests to do so.
Say this pill was twice as effective as it is ( and I do not sneer at 30% everything helps). And there is a good reason why the mutation fear is unwarranted. But is that reasoning ironclad so there is no chance of any risk , factoring in that maybe the scientists missed something in their reasoning?
So maybe there is only a 1 in 10,000 chance that the pill leads to some freak mutation that kills 10% of the population. Too damn high to take that 1 in 10,000 chance .
And same goes for scientific experimentation on viruses creating dangerous ones to try to develop treatments. Too damn dangerous. And seems much of the scientific establishment here were involved with that , directly or indirectly , somewhat evading the laws to stop it ( and maybe using China as a go around). Including fauci and cdc.
And that has driven some of the pontificating. Protecting their asses re what they did. I do think most likely that covid did emerge from the China lab - too coincidental. But, even if it did not , it clearly could have . And, with humans , no safety precautions are ironclad. And we know the Chinese lab had serious issues there.
And you should at least try to understand some of the vaccine skepticism as a rational distrust that maybe the scientists behind such a new type of vaccine missed something that could cause real bad long term consequences ( i.e. ones that would not have shown up yet) .
And remember the supercollidier and the fear by some it could end the universe if started. Largely unfounded. However, since we do not fully understand quantum mechanics, not totally. One scientist said that was so crazy as to be 1 on 1,000,000 chance. I bet it was higher but even I in a million is too damn high.
China lab??? Why there??? Why not a Taiwanese lab??? This "disease" is so garden variety is hurts. No different than OC43.
"only 30%" is actually very useful, and numbers better for very severe cases and deaths.
But in both cases larger studies/observations are needed.
Merck's mode of action, similar to some AIDS drugs, and remdesivir. But there is real concern about mutations and effects on fetal development. That is not something you want in a prophylactic--but it should be fine for older people, i.e. not of child bearing age. OF course, that is what the FDA committees are for--to evaluate the available data. I'm less concerned about the drug leading to new viral variants. The virus copying is leaky enough that with billions infected, it's sampling a very wide range of genetic space.
I agree that 30% I'd still something and not to be dismissed. And maybe we end up with a cocktail of different treatments, all of which have moderate value alone, but do the job in combination.
And sort of like the vaccines. Looks like immunity, at least for spread, is not as good as first hoped. But the vaccines still do a decent job.
When you say ok for older people, are you talking only re fetal development risk ? Or do you mean also for mutation issue ? Because do not see why it would be relevant for that.
And you are probably right that the mutation method of working does not significantly increase variant risk over what we already have. I have to hope and expect that those developing and approoving this sincerely believe that , based on current science. Although always a bit sceptical when something believed is also in self interest ( for drug company or regulator who might later want a job).
But I worry about, to paraphrase Don Rumsfeldt , the " unknown unknown " . Some reason why this type of drug creates a mutation/ variant risk that would be super unlikely to occur naturally but would be not within even our outside understanding given current scientific knowledge.
I just do not feel we yet have enough solid understanding of how all the genetics work that we can be 100% confident in fooling around with viruses this way . Especially if the benefit is not that dramatic as 30% effective against a virus that , in the end, is not all that serious a threat to the civilization ( not anywhere near things like smallpox) .
And same sort of analysis re the mnra vaccines. Still have a tiny worry we will find out in ten years they had horrible long term effects. But there what they did, if I understand it, does not seem quite as risky and the benefit is much higher ( and seems risk would be on vaccine taker not entire community). But I do prefer that there are at least some young vaccine resistors. Just in case of the 1 in a million worst case.
Almost two years in and we still have no idea what to do. Or, rather, we know, but we're immature and lazy and irresponsible so we simply won't do what needs to be done.
It's the GD Centers for Disease Control and PREVENTION, not the "Centers for Let's Sit Around and Repeat the Huge Mistake We Made with the Delta Variant."
Clearly, Americans are never going to stop pretending the pandemic is over or we don't have to be very careful because stupid behavior won't lead to more variants, one of which may be really dangerous.
Because it is over. You see the yry declines??? I mean, are you that retarded???
Don’t feed the troll.
Any variant that is more contagious than the current dominant variant is going to go worldwide. No measures are going to stop that - they can only slow it by a matter of days. The world is just too interconnected today. That's why I think the New York governor has the right approach. Act as though Omicron is already starting to circulate here.
And for this variant, looks like vaccination status might not matter as much if it really has mutated to escape current vaccines. Even if it is not this variant, I think it only a matter of time until one emerges that basically resets the vaccination clock back to December 2020. And as for whether it is the unvaccinated or vaccinated mostly driving the variants, it ultimately does not matter. I think even if we got 100% of the world vaccinated, the Covid vaccines have proven leaky enough that it would still spread and still drive variants to emerge. Places like Europe and Israel have shown that the vaccines only partially effective at stopping transmission - right now it is all about preventing hospitalization and death as much as possible.
Our only hope of coming out of this is to hope for a repeat of what happened in 1919-1920. Then, the pandemic flu mutated to become both more contagious and far less lethal. That's a natural evolutionary path for a virus to take because most viruses will try to guarantee their own survival. If the virus kills hosts too quickly and burns itself out, then the virus dies too.
TLDR: We can't avoid omicron, and the world won't be able to vaccinate its way out of this pandemic.
First almost zero chance that any variant will " set the clock back " to December 2020 with respect to vaccines ( even ignoring that more natural immunity) .
It would be near impossible for it to mutate so much that the vaccination gives absolutely zero benefit and does not help the immune system at all, even if only slowing it down until the immune system can develop a better antibody.
New variants might lessen the vaccine effectiveness but very unlikely to eliminate it .
Although I wonder if the mnra vaccines are more vulnerable to variants. As I understand it , the argument that vaccine immunity will be better than natural ( or I suppose more traditional types of vaccines) is that the mnra vaccine focuses on the spike protein and not the whole virus ( like natural immunity would) . But that idea ( which I never really bought) is based on thinking that the specific spike protein is so crucial to the virus that it cannot mutate to change that much without destroying itself ( i.e. that a vaccine evading variant will be not transmissible anyway).
Except what they are saying now is that it seems this variant maybe did mutate all over the spike and is still transmissible. Which should mean that natural immunity, while also being reduced, should not be affected as much.
Second, you mention the way out being the emergence of a more contagious less lethal variant as you correctly explain why that is the common path. Could this be it ? Or at least the first step toward it ?
There are some reports saying that the actual cases from this variant seem to be fairly mild . If this variant really is more transmissible but way less deadly, we should WANT it to spread here. Not saying we know that yet .
Kevin,
Perhaps it might be useful to ban this troll spadesofgrey ? He pollutes the discussion, making it less-than-useful or -tolerable to actually read thru the comments.
To your substantive question, I think the simple answer is that we have always had a concrete and unmoving goal to aim for: "a bad flu year". In a bad flu year, 35k Americans die. Doing the math at 1% CFR (which is a reasonable back-of-the-envelope estimate) gets you to *3 cases/100k/day.*
Until and unless we get to that number, we should all be doing our part: vaxx, booster, mask, distancing, minimizing entry into large indoor gatherings. We've all gotten to where we're willing to tolerate a higher rate of *deaths* than that number above (again, 35k deaths/year in a bad flu year). That's on all of us. Ah, well.
I am beginning to realize that Spades is a troll. Not because he disagrees about the danger and severity of the pandemic, although his dismissive attitude is certainly wrong.
It is because he substitutes name-calling in place of any substantive, or even clear reasons for his ...er..."eccentric" opinions.
His occasional paeans to torture are disturbing.
Missed those. If true that would be totally out-of-bounds.
Apparently you also missed the casual anti Semitism too?
& every rightwing extremist is actually Black or Mexican.
Not to mention his arguments on covid & vaccination rates have seemed inconsistent over the last couple of days.
He isn't just insulting in a juvenile way, but is a bigot on several fronts - Blacks, Jews, more. And his recent reference to old people "croaking" indicated another form of antisocial attitude.
I don't think that the blogger has any control over any commenter, but sure wish that there were an "ignore" option.
@KawSunflower
Kevin can block people if he wants to. He can also allow us to edit our comments after posting if he wants to.
Assuming we accept your 35,000 deaths as a bad flu year , which I am not sure I do , and a 1% cfr, I think your math is back of the envelope correct at 3 per 100,000. So go with that level.
Looking at places with recent big waves like fla , sure seems like they are plateuing a little over 5 per day . Maybe as mini waves keep happening and all the no immunity group disappears, we can get near your 3 per 100,000 figure. But right now my guess is endemic level is higher.
The problem with your statement that , until then, we should all " do out part " , is that it presumes that , if we do , we can get to the level you think we need and then get back to normal and cases will stay at that level.
But I think this had some of the " fantasy " aspect I mention above. Unless you can really eliminate a virus like we did with smallpox, which always was absurd with covid, restrictions at one time do not permanently reduce the spread. They only lower it when they apply. Then you remove them and spread goes back up until it reaches the equilibrium level with no restrictions . So what good does that do in the end?
Say the equilibrium level with zero restrictions is 6 per 100,000 per day and 2 per 100,000 with restrictions. With your assumed 1% cfr . Are people willing to live with those restrictions for the REST OF THEIR lives and future generations too to reduce deaths that much? No, and I think no is the right decision there.
The time for discussion for temporary " while the pandemic lasts " restrictions is in the past , except maybe for short " flatten the curve times " like in places like mich today. Now we need to think about whether and which types of behavior changes might make sense permanently. Which have a cost low enough to make the benefit worthwhile. Large scale masking and social distancing you can forget about. More masking in specific situations where viruses can spread, maybe in. Having everyone have a sufficient supply of n95 masks for some future different pandemic - definitely in. Washing hands more ( and especially before picking your nose ) easy enough to do permanently. Things like better more costly ventilation systems are a harder decision. Note that it was energy saving re climate change that drove much of the current self enclosed building ventilation that is so bad for viruses. Are you willing to trade off a higher carbon footprint for virus reduction?
But there decisions need to be made now not just in the context of covid but with all diseases . Many measures may not be worth it for covid but might if you consider other diseases and future possible ones .
Note that the restrictions usefulness in reducing spread of covid seem unclear and marginal . It is very arguable that they might not have helped very much re covid. But indisputable they just destroyed the flu , to the extent that some wonder if one strain has gone extinct.
Kevin, in regard to banning the troll, I second the motion.
I think everybody - except the other trolls of course - are in favor of banning the troll. Alas, Kevin is either pro-troll since he does nothing to rid of us of their antisocial behavior or (more likely) the commenting software doesn’t allow Kevin to ban anybody because there’s money to be made somehow in allowing trolls to shit all over everything.
Kevin undoubtedly is aware that A) banning trolls is seldom effective because they can simply register a new account and, B) we, his readers are accessing a free service (namely, Kevin's writing) and are perfectly free to SIMPLY NOT FEED THE TROLL.
What is so hard about that?
(I wouldn't say "no" to a new commenting system. I always liked Disqus, for instance. But, it's just not that big a deal considering what a fantastic bargain this blog is. And for the record, I've occasionally responded to this particular troll. But I try to do so only when he/she/it/they makes a constructive comment. Which is very rare.)
+1
You should be banned. We had a dip shit crowing that 7% of under 50 represent covid deaths. That is 2 flu seasons, but that little shit of a poster had the gall. It's like OC43 a old persons disease, period. Accept it. Deal with it.
There are three rational reasons for harsh restrictions that limit economy and life enjoyment where they might actually be worthwhile.
First , in order to buy time and delay in order to be able to do something to protect much of the population from sickness and death, such as vaccination and new treatments. Once you are at the point where anyone who wants a vaccine can get one, the justification for restrictions on that basis is weak ( i.e. since late spring early summer here in usa ).
Second, to "flatten the curve" in order to not reduce total cases , but spread them out over time and reduce the peaks that could overload the health care system. This was the initial explanation in spring 2020 but was accepting that would eventually spread. And , at that time , the " smart scientific " position was that trump was crazy to think a vaccine could be ready sooner than 2 years or so.
Third , in order to permanently keep cases lower, i.e. to reduce the base R of the virus even if endemic and thus lower the amount of additional natural immunity through additional infections needed to offset waning immunity. But this requires the restrictions to be permanent. This justification is senseless for anything that is not going to be a permanent change in life . So masking for that is just out.
The fantasy reason that some seem to have adopted is that restrictions will be able to eliminate the virus and then we can remove them and go back to normal. Has always been ridiculous.
For a new variant, you have to consider whether it makes the justification for restrictions better or worse.
And being more transmissible can make restrictions LESS useful , not more . If it makes restrictions simply unable to stop a more transmissible virus.
For example, if we had started with delta in early 2020 and had a delta vaccine ready by December, I expect that the vaccine would have been too late mostly and all the restrictions largely pointless. Delta would have overwhelmed them and infected most people by November and already been declining before December vaccines. Original and alpha were just enough less transmissible to give restrictions a chance.
Assuming we accept your 35,000 deaths as a bad flu year , which I am not sure I do , and a 1% cfr, I think your math is back of the envelope correct at 3 per 100,000. So go with that level.
Looking at places with recent big waves like fla , sure seems like they are plateuing a little over 5 per day . Maybe as mini waves keep happening and all the no immunity group disappears, we can get near your 3 per 100,000 figure. But right now my guess is endemic level is higher.
The problem with your statement that , until then, we should all " do out part " , is that it presumes that , if we do , we can get to the level you think we need and then get back to normal and cases will stay at that level.
But I think this had some of the " fantasy " aspect I mention above. Unless you can really eliminate a virus like we did with smallpox, which always was absurd with covid, restrictions at one time do not permanently reduce the spread. They only lower it when they apply. Then you remove them and spread goes back up until it reaches the equilibrium level with no restrictions . So what good does that do in the end?
Say the equilibrium level with zero restrictions is 6 per 100,000 per day and 2 per 100,000 with restrictions. With your assumed 1% cfr . Are people willing to live with those restrictions for the REST OF THEIR lives and future generations too to reduce deaths that much? No, and I think no is the right decision there.
The time for discussion for temporary " while the pandemic lasts " restrictions is in the past , except maybe for short " flatten the curve times " like in places like mich today. Now we need to think about whether and which types of behavior changes might make sense permanently. Which have a cost low enough to make the benefit worthwhile. Large scale masking and social distancing you can forget about. More masking in specific situations where viruses can spread, maybe in. Having everyone have a sufficient supply of n95 masks for some future different pandemic - definitely in. Washing hands more ( and especially before picking your nose ) easy enough to do permanently. Things like better more costly ventilation systems are a harder decision. Note that it was energy saving re climate change that drove much of the current self enclosed building ventilation that is so bad for viruses. Are you willing to trade off a higher carbon footprint for virus reduction?
But there decisions need to be made now not just in the context of covid but with all diseases . Many measures may not be worth it for covid but might if you consider other diseases and future possible ones .
Note that the restrictions usefulness in reducing spread of covid seem unclear and marginal . It is very arguable that they might not have helped very much re covid. But indisputable they just destroyed the flu , to the extent that some wonder if one strain has gone extinct.
In less than a month, Omicron has seemingly overtaken Delta and other variants in South Africa as a percentage of infections. This does not happen so quickly unless Omicron is much more transmissible than Delta (which took months to become the dominant variant).
Deaths in SA are spiking seemingly at the same time (rather than lagging by a few weeks) as new infections. This potentially unusual phenomenon may point to the possibility that Omicron infections are much more widespread than believed, but that because symptoms are generally very mild, few people noticed that they were possibly infected and therefore got tested.
So maybe we'll totally luck out and Omicron is in fact the path out of this pandemic: Extremely infectious but also extremely mild variant allows itself to spread so quickly and unnoticed that the herd immunity target rate has been significantly lowered and the virus wipes itself out.
Interesting point re the death timing . Would love to believe your reasoning for hope there. Had not noticed that and did check and just not at all convinced. The data from South Africa just does not seem good enough to me to come to any conclusions .
Per worldometers , the deaths per day for recent days are, starting 11/21. - 2,10 51,22,114,12,8. A quick peak for one day and then drop off. Cases are 691, 314, 868, 1275, 2465, 2828. 3220. Starting real low and then rising in a few days to 5 times or so before leveling off. No way this virus spreads fast enough to triple on 3 days and then immediately level off. There are clearly too many data issues to conclude anything now from that.
But still do have mixed feelings. Worry this could be another spike in bad like delta was after seems we were turning the corner . But hope that also might be good news .
And , if it does turn out that , somehow, this variant managed to come up with 50 different mutations, and somehow all these changes managed to make it work even more to spread and kill, and in the spike protein where that should have been near impossible, maybe we should be worrying that this variant is man made , and maybe delta and original were too. At some point, the astoundingly bad mutations and surprising original virus seem too suspiciously perfect .
Except deaths are not spiking. This is the type of nonsense that gets posted on this board over and over again. Misleading opinions you call "facts". That is trolling. That is lying. Ban this sucker.
It is spiking. Are they at peak? No. They're at the start of the wave and it's clear as day. Just use rolling 7-day average and it stands out.
What's bugging you today? Got too much criticism from others from trolling too much?
No, it isn't spiking. It moved higher during the summer. This is a blip.
or...the antibodies, and immune response in general, against the original and delta variants don't work so well against the omicron variant. Practically, that's the same as being more infectious currently--but does not mean it would be more infectious in a naive population.
That doesn't work. Their stuff is related to vaccine related antibodies. Not natural. You obvious are not paying attention.
In two weeks Omnicron went from being discovered in S AFrica to being the dominant virus in that country.
But it will take 100 days for new vaccines to ship. Thats curious, at best
Here's another view point:
https://www.statnews.com/2021/11/26/whats-known-and-unknown-about-the-coronavirus-variant-identified-in-south-africa/
{snip}
What does it mean for immune protection?
If the spike protein changes, the antibodies elicited by vaccines or an earlier infection can’t recognize it as well. The more changes, the more foreign that spike starts to look to the immune system.
Vaccines generate what’s called a polyclonal response, with lots of antibodies that recognize different pieces of the spike protein. Other variants have had mutations that caused changes in a particular spot on the protein — called an antigenic site — and might have thrown off those corresponding antibodies, but there were plenty of other antibodies that still could recognize the virus.
But with the new variant, “it has so many changes across spike that******* nearly all the antigenic sites we know about are changed on this virus,”******* said Wendy Barclay, who leads a U.K. group studying new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. That suggests, Barclay said, that the ability of antibodies ********“will be compromised in their ability to neutralize the virus”****** — though she cautioned that scientists need to study that question to confirm it.
{snip}
And yet THIS is not the virus Faucci and other were worried about just lat week. They were convinced that it would be spring time before we had a variant that could evade protections provided by anti bodies. But I think the response of limiting travel to and from S Africa is prudent.
If this is more contagious than Delta I wonder how many break through cases we will see? The viral load imposed by Delta over whelmed the anti body protections - especially by Pfizers vaccine
I'm NOT convinced this is "the one".
But it sure did go from an oddity to VoC in a hurry
I think the foremost issue is that we still do not have a very good testing regime, as far as I know. The tests don't really hit the speed of results or reliability benchmarks that we would need effectively to contain an outbreak with limited quarantines, particularly given that apparently it takes a few days after infection before the antibodies that are tested for show up in measurable quantities.
Given this, it has to be assumed that there will be no successful containment.
And with little hope of containment, we should individually prepare for the worst possibilities for the Omicron variant: get back to masking up religiously, social distancing, and limiting public outings. Assume that your immunization is not going to be anywhere near as effective as it has been.
As for community response ... we're screwed in America. We did a poor job of it with the earlier waves, and at this point even people who would like to do the right thing have little patience remaining for it.
And of course we have a significant portion of the population that refuses to get vaccinated.
So see to yourself and the people you care about as well as you can, assuming the worst, and hope that the worst isn't what we get.
There's pretty much zero information yet as to how lethal or dangerous it is—I've been searching (other than the fact that, if it's more transmissible,—which seems clear—it's more dangerous in general).
I'm going out on a limb here, but, the coronaviruses that have struck our species in the past have generally evolved toward less, not more, lethality (at least relative to the species it's infecting—us—who develop resistance).
So, I see no reason for panic.
That it is less dangerous is the track Fox News was taking when I looked in on it this morning:
>>The South African doctor who first alerted authorities to the presence of the COVID-19 omicron variant reported that it presents "unusual but mild" symptoms.
Dr. Angelique Coetzee, a board member of the South African Medical Association, first noticed otherwise healthy patients demonstrating unusual symptoms on Nov. 18.
"Their symptoms were so different and so mild from those I had treated before," Coetzee told The Telegraph.
"It presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two not feeling well," Coetzee explained. "So far, we have detected that those infected do not suffer the loss of taste or smell. They might have a slight cough. There are no prominent symptoms. Of those infected some are currently being treated at home."<<
I’d like to believe this but, you know, Fox “News”. And other stories there complain that Biden ran on ending Covid but look, Omicron!
I've seen similar reports. Mind you the sciencey people are saying "don't assume anything at this point" so maybe it won't prove on average to induce milder symptoms. But maybe it will. We shall see.
Ask the CDC. My guess? Wait. The other option smacks of panic.
The CDC is downplaying it. The UK is the one hyping it up.
Are you STILL here?
Are you??? Creating false hype should be investigated.
I must agree with Mr Guthman here. I am posting this around and even sending it to the White House (LOL), because Biden has been very weak in messaging. Adding George Washington's name and example might help.
I am going to throw this in since I am going use this elsewhere...but George Washington seems very germane to this discussion. From the Science Desk at the Library of Congress:
*******************************************************************
Weighing the risks, on February 5th of 1777, Washington finally
committed to the unpopular policy of mass inoculation by writing
to inform Congress of his plan. Throughout February, Washington,
with no precedent for the operation he was about to undertake, covertly
communicated to his commanding officers orders to oversee mass inoculations
of their troops in the model of Morristown and Philadelphia (Dr.
Shippen's Hospital). At least eleven hospitals had been constructed
by the year's end.
Variola raged throughout the war, devastating the Native American
population and slaves who had chosen to fight for the British in
exchange for freedom. Yet the isolated infections that sprung up
among Continental regulars during the southern campaign failed to
incapacitate a single regiment. With few surgeons, fewer medical
supplies, and no experience, Washington conducted the first mass
inoculation of an army at the height of a war that immeasurably transformed
the international system. Defeating the British was impressive, but
simultaneously taking on Variola was a risky stroke of genius.
https://www.loc.gov/rr/scit...
Variola is smallpox.
***************************************************************************
Best Wishes, Traveller
I'd say a bit of both options: let epidemiologists say whether countermeasures are needed as we wait to find out how dangerous it is.
They work with probabilities too, all the time, and better than we do.
Here’s hoping it flourishes in the warm weather of the old confederacy. Someone please drop an omicron bomb on Tallahassee and a half dozen other southern cities. Let them go for herd immunity!
I know… I’m a terrible person for posting this sarcasm.
You can't spell Ron de Santis, B.A. Yale University without B-R-A-N-D-O-N.
yes brandon is variety sale unit
Searching for evidence on the severity of omicron, I found this article from a London newspaper.
https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-blessing-in-the-sky-omicron-may-be-very-positive-news-for-the-world-if-new-covid-mutation-kills-off-more-lethal-delta-variant/
It seems to support those above who have speculated that the new variant, while highly infectious, causes milder disease. Therefore there is some reason to believe it might displace Delta as the dominant strain.
While this data is quite preliminary, here are excerpts from the article:
"Hospitals and GPs across Southern Africa are increasingly reporting that the symptoms of the aggressive new Covid strain Omicron are “unusual but very mild,” according to various media in South Africa this weekend.
Around 90 per cent of all new infections in the Johannesburg region are now caused by the Omicron strain but, so far, the Covid death rate and even hospital admissions appear not to be increasing significantly, local media report.
Some experts are therefore cautiously optimistic that – if Omicron turns out to be less lethal but more contagious and dominant than the Delta variant – the new mutation may actually be a blessing in the sky."
Trever Beford saying looks like hospital admissions spiked in SA. Currently a bit too much noise but may be just as bad if not worse. Unsure yet.
Alternately because of SAs very poor vaccination rate (which is a matter of HESITANCY NOT SUPPLY) perhaps vaccination still strong against bad outcomes.
Again, that is not a spike.
But no one says what they mean by 'unusual'.
>> They included young people of different backgrounds and ethnicities with intense fatigue and a six-year-old child with a very high pulse rate, she said. None suffered from a loss of taste or smell.
“Their symptoms were so different and so mild from those I had treated before,” said Dr Coetzee, a GP for 33 years who chairs the South African Medical Association alongside running her practice.
On November 18, when four family members all tested positive for Covid-19 with complete exhaustion, she informed the country’s vaccine advisory committee.
“We had one very interesting case, a kid, about six years old, with a temperature and a very high pulse rate, and I wondered if I should admit her. But when I followed up two days later, she was so much better,” Dr Coetzee says.<> South African demographics are very different from those in the UK. Only about six per cent of the population are over the age of 65. This means that older individuals who are more vulnerable to the virus may take some time to present.<<
Counter measures instantly while we wait to learn more. Pass a 15 billion dollar gift to SA to help cover their costs.
We are missing the points again
Omnicron surpassed DELTA as the main variant in S Africa in 2 weeks.
Even though S Africa is poorly vaccinated they did have a bad DELTA wave so post infection immunity SHOULD have helped, but did not.
The story I linked to above explained it:
**************If the spike protein changes, the antibodies elicited *************by vaccines or an earlier infection can’t recognize it as well**************. The more changes, the more foreign that spike starts to look to the immune system.********
This is just the FIRST to have so many spikes that it can evade post infection AND vaccine immunity systems.
It doesn't matter how weak or strong the symptoms are - IT WILL SPREAD. IT will spread until everyone is vaccinated with a variant specific vaccine - OR - everyone catches it at the same time so that everyone is at peak protection by vaccine or post infection immunity.
But if you've already had CV, been vaccinated and boostered or both to this virus you will be just another body to infect because YOUR body will NOT recognize this virus.
The more this exceptionally mutated version spreads the greater the chances of OTHER variants coming out, DELTA surged in July - we are already 5 months PAST peak Delta. We have no antibodies left to fight this new variant UNLESS we get a variant specific vaccine out to everyone in a hurry. Or let EVERYONE get sick.
This is NOT the one Faucci was worried about.