Unless someone gets run over by a bus, the two candidates for president this year are Joe Biden and Donald Trump. That's it, like it or not. So can everyone please start dealing with reality on this? The endless pissing and moaning about Earth-2 scenarios is really starting to grate on me.
97 thoughts on “Trump and Biden are the nominees for president. Deal with it.”
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Amen! Don't always agree with Kevin, but he sure hit the nail on the head this time around.
Don't like the current nominees? Get out there and start working on getting your preferred on in the running for 2028. Wishing really hard that things would magically change is useless at any point, but especially once the primaries have already started.
"Get out there and start working on getting your preferred on in the running for 2028."
If Trmp wins and lives through his term there will not free elections in 2028, so it is more important to make sure that he does not win.
You're both right. But so many "smart" people on the left would rather show how "smart" they are regardless of the consequences.
I'd say it was 2000 all over again, but it is way way worse.
https://www.mattball.org/2024/02/presidents-day-please-choose-pizza-not.html
If the Indictee In Chief is elected, there won't BE a "2028".
"Unless someone gets run over by a bus..."
Or Joe has a "Mitch " moment in late October
Or Trump has a Mitch moment. He's every bit as likely as Biden. More even. I would hate to have his arteries. More fat in them then in his fat ass.
Of course. Then Haley would be the nominee and she'd beat Biden like a drum.
I wonder, will the White Christianist crowd really get out a vote for a not white, not man?
What she loses in mouth breathing uneducated white males she doubles among women and independents. That's why I'd like us to bring Whitmer along sooner than later.
What makes you think that the current Republican Party would choose Haley as Trump's replacement? They don't have to choose the person with the second most delegates.
Nope, probably Don, Jr.
Because they want to win and would love to be able to hang their hat on having the first woman potus ( consider the latter a pre-emptive move).
They don't *have* to choose the person with the second most delegates, but it's the default option, and default options are usually taken.
"Trump and Biden are the nominees for president. Deal with it"
While true, once one looks at the swing state polling, I find this 'fact' to be disconcerting. Who knows, but it seems like a coin flip, or slightly worse, that Trump wins reelection....ugh!
I find Silver's argument interesting
https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-time-for-the-white-house-to-put
It's balls tightening fear inducing and that should bloody well motivate anyone not MAGA to lay aside precious purity ponyism and support Biden all out (rather than publishing idiotic intellectualising à la un certain M. Klein). Biden's a very decent President for USA, run with it.
In Europe such a threat as like Marine Le Pen saw actual united front (and both centre-Left-centre-Right compromise to stop her).
For what it's worth:
1. Nate Silver is an idiot. Don't pay attention to him.
2. Polling at this point (as even Nate Silver used to say) means nothing.
3. Polling has underestimated Biden's share of the vote by double digits in every primary so far. So even if polling meant anything, it would mean that polling is way off and the models aren't working right now.
4. Biden still does better in polling than any other Dem. There is no "better" replacement.
5. Remember #2.
Very true. Nate is a self-important idiot.
Nate Silver is an idiot. Don't pay attention to him.
Silver is far from an idiot. He's got a couple of million twitter followers (easily monetizes into a 6 figure income). Has a new book coming out. Was certainly earning 7 figures while with Disney.
He's not an idiot. He's a very clever right wing troll who's become adept at getting in on the wingnut welfare gravy train.
He is not an idiot OR a troll. His election models are more accurate than anyone else's. He put in the hard work to actually get that stuff right when no one else wanted to bother. When he moves outside of modeling into take-slinging his takes aren't always good, but that is not a reason to dismiss and disparage him like this.
Silver's models are right sometimes, and sometimes not. But a long time ago he left his primary role as poll aggregator and became a pundit. Not a particularly reliable one, if you ask me. He's an anti-lib guy with opinions about covid policy, the lab-leak theory, politics, and more. He's a dime a dozen and I have no need for him.
At the link, he's arguing that the White House needs to get Biden to do more public appearances. That way, the public will get to see the president in action. IOW, he's pushing the idea that Biden has been hiding from the public.
Biden has done 20 public appearances this month alone, including 10 press conferences/gaggles. BIDEN IS OUT THERE. He's doing the job. You only hear about the one appearance where he was pissed off about the Hur report and he mistakenly referred to Egypt as Mexico.
Rely on Silver at your own risk.
👍👍👍👍👍
"he's arguing that the White House needs to get Biden to do more public appearances. "
Meaning act more like Trump and hold pep rallys versus doing your job.
This, totally.
I feel Biden has mostly avoided the 'Obama time machine' accusations but OMG, we're back in the 'he should do this thing (he did last week)!' territory.
People who you disagree with are not either Trolls or Right Wing as a matter of course
Silver is neither a troll nor right wing - he's I think wrong here but not on any wingnut gravy train
Pathetic partisan tribalism as responses are just boring.
Silver is definitely playing the troll.
Agreed I have been reading him for years and I find him one of the few people who has useful stuff to say out there. He also is acutely aware of and uses data better than most. Not perfect, but nobody is. I find him generally left-of-center.
*uses data better than most*
Only because most journalists/pundits are innumerate.
I don't think making money makes someone not an idiot. Donald Trump got some fool to spend $9,000 for a pair of autographed sneakers over the weekend. I'll go out on a limb and say he's still an idiot.
"He's got a couple of million twitter followers (easily monetizes into a 6 figure income). Has a new book coming out. Was certainly earning 7 figures while with Disney."
Trump made lots of money and has lots of twitter followers and he's absolute idiot. None of the above indicate intelligence, especially in America. A land that loves celebrities above all else.
Not saying Silver is an idiot. Rather you need to use better qualifications.
Trump made lots of money and has lots of twitter followers and he's absolute idiot.
That's absurd. Trump ran a sprawling criminal enterprise for several decades and it's only now that the law has finally begun to catch up with him. And even at that there's every possibility he'll never spend a day in jail, and the civil verdicts against him could yet still be reversed on appeal.
Trump is not well-versed in policy, and he's very poorly read. And at the cusp of 80 it would appear he's beginning to suffer dementia. But he's no "idiot" as that term is normally understood. What Trump is is evil. He's also very poorly qualified indeed for the presidency. But he was never an "idiot" as such.
The key thing about #3 is not the size of the errors, but the source. The pollsters are mostly off because their likely voter models are wrong. Primaries have a different electorate than the general, so the error is going to be different.This will be a close election, but the bias in the polls is still clearly going to be in Biden’s favor.
I imagine that the Biden campaign is preparing Biden for campaign mode, to start with the SOTU address. Not much to gain by sending him out unprepared.
Nearly every single poll over the past 3 years has predicted doom for Democrats at all levels through multiple local, State, special elections, and primaries, yet every single time they have been extremely wrong, with Democrats outperforming the expectations often by large margins.
Nate Silver, like Kline, and other ''concern pundits'' are idiots that can't seem to understand the concept of garbage in-garbage out when they look at their polls, and so feel the need to justify why anyone should still listen to them.
They keep blabbing about how Biden's age not letting him campaign properly despite the fact that the election hasn't actually started, so there is no need for him to be on the road every day, never mind the fact that Trump, who supposedly is the full of energy spring chicken next to Biden, hasn't been campaigning all that often either, and when he does, he is only drawing a tiny fraction of the crowds he drew in 2020, and even more so compared to 2016.
The less attention people give to these idiots trying to stay relevant, the better everyone will be.
Yes! And thanks for this. Given that the infotainment media is largely in the can for the Republican Party, I'd suspect that a lot of this gloom'n'doom for Democrats is an effort to demoralize us Lefties. Gawd knows, we "demoralize" at the drop of a hat.
But it hasn't worked. And "polls" are not THE polls: the voting booths on Election Day (plus early and absentee).
Also, the damned horse race coverage, where it just has to remain a "race." Gotta kick the candidate who's in the lead, or who ought to be in the lead, or whose loss would unleash Armageddon. Now that's excitement!
And Trump's "commanding leads" in the primaries and caucuses thus far? Half the folks in Iowa wanted someone else. Half the folks in New Hampshire wanted someone else. We don't know what the secret Nevada caucus count (of a few thousand maganuts, apparently) was, but ... he didn't get all the delegates! And he was the only real candidate on the ballot!
Talking Points memo has a very telling photo of Trump today, in the courtroom. Have a look see: does he look young and vital yada yada yada?
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/morning-memo/trump-ii-christian-nationalism-russell-vought-mike-flynn
No wonder he needs pancake makeup, to fill in those wrinkles.
I find Silver's argument crappy. I used to read him, years ago, stopped when the quality went down. But I followed your link, and here are a couple of criticisms, out of more I could bring up.
The economy: Silver argues that, while the economy has improved, the President's approval has not, and concludes that the reason is 'Biden old'. I shouldn't have to note that this is a non sequitur. Democratic presidents never get much credit for a rising economy; against all evidence, voters think Republicans are better for the economy. Silver would have to show that Biden is uniquely (as compared to other Democratic presidents) disapproved. He didn't.
About Biden's approval: Silver says it is "well below the threshold that would ordinarily make a president a favorite for re-election", without showing his work. Kevin Drum did a much better job on this issue, comparing Biden's approval/disapproval numbers to the last several presidents. Iirc, Biden's numbers are not much different from those of Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama, all of whom won re-election. In general, Kevin uses data properly, that is, such that it could falsify a proposition. Silver cherry-picks in the referenced piece.
I could say more about assumptions and conjectures taken as fact, or Silver's failure to address the second-order effects of a party dumping its own incumbent. I'll stop after pointing out that it is by no means clear that any other actual live Democrat would poll better against tfg: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/february-2024-national-poll-biden-performs-strongest-against-trump-among-prominent-democrats/
There are two types of people who desperately want to see Biden drop out:
1. People who know nothing about how politics works and are scared of their own shadow.
2. People who want to see Trump elected in November.
The trouble with the #1s is that they're doing the work of the #2s and don't realize it.
(If there's a 3rd category, it's people who run media and think they're running the roller-coaster at the amusement park.)
Media people want a different candidate so they can have someone fresh to write about. Biden is old news, and they hate that. Biden dropping out would be bad for the country but great for the media, and the media doesn't want to admit that they are putting themselves ahead of the country when they whine about him.
Finally they dug up something on Biden that sticks,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2024/02/19/abraham-lincoln-joe-biden-pardon-presidents-day/
Attempted murder!
That's a great story. Good ol' Moses J. Robinette:
Opposing traitors seems to run in the family.
Tell me about it.
Biden is fine, and if he does kick the can before the election (which appears highly unlikely), we'll have our first woman president -- so there's really no downside.
Although no one should rest on their laurels, recent special elections have shown enormous swings toward Democrats beyond what polling suggested beforehand. We need to get out and trumpet the many policy wins of Biden and Democrats while spotlighting the great danger every Republican poses to not only women's autonomy but democracy in general. Defeatism is Democrat's only real hindrance to victory in November.
"Although no one should rest on their laurels, recent special elections have shown enormous swings toward Democrats beyond what polling suggested beforehand."
I know of absolutely nobody younger than myself that has a landline, and I'm in my mid-40s. And who answers calls on their cellphone from "Unknown Caller"? So I have no idea how pollsters can feel at all confident that they are capturing the majority preferences of the electorate in any election after about George W. Bush left office.
Remember Mencken: pollsters' paychecks depend on believing that they know what they're doing, so they brush aside the obvious problems.
Yeah. I really love ezra klein and think he's one of he smartest and most thoughtful political analysts around, but his latest think on replacing biden just made no sense to me. There's no reason to think another candidate would be more likely to win (in fact his track record of beating trump would indicate the opposite), there's no obvious candidate to replace him, a convention fight over the nomination would almost certainly be damaging, the negative press of "democrats in disarray" if biden stepped aside would be disastrous. But most of all, it's complete fantasy the biden would ever do it under the current conditions or anything remotely plausible outside severe medical emergency.
Yeah, people aren't thinking through the consequences of Biden stepping aside. Does he endorse Harris thereby giving her a big edge or does he snub her and alienate Black voters? The press would spend their every waking moment trying to find people disgruntled by whatever decision was made at the convention. I'm sure two months of constant "XXXX Dems upset with choice" stories will really help their election prospects.
None of the typical names mentioned (Whitmer, Shapiro, Beshear, etc) is polling as well as Biden is against Trump. This is never mentioned by Klein, Silver or any of the sundry pundits calling for a different nominee.
Yup. I tried to think of who could plausibly replace biden and win and i came up blank.
This is coming from the media, not ordinary voters. The media hates old news and wants something/someone fresh to write about. A rematch between two candidates who have both run before makes their lives hard. They try to project this onto ordinary voters, and ordinary voters often repeat what the media is telling them, but it's really just self-interested whining from media people.
a lot of our problems could fall off the radar if trump decides to save a few bucks by delaying maintenance on his jet
If Joe Biden is senile then we need a whole lot more senescent American presidents. I’ve never seen a more successful doddering fool.
Agree! Entirely.
Biden is doing very, very well with the hand that he was dealt.
I'm pissed that Biden decided to run and I'm pissed at all the Dems who didn't step up and run against him. I think after RBG we all have legitimate concerns that he becomes incapacitated after the convention and before the general. That would be a disaster. But here we are so I support Biden and I understand that we are long past the time where anything can be done about it. Ezra is just another media figure chasing the contrarian bonafides and I am as sick of that as I am of Trump.
Thanks for sharing. Your ice cream and pony from Johnny Unbeatable's aborted Democratic campaign are waiting for you just outside the voting booth in November.
I think after RBG we all have legitimate concerns that he becomes incapacitated after the convention and before the general. That would be a disaster.
DNC rules allow the party to replace the nominee after the convention in the scenario you raise.
And taking literally any action other than voting for Biden is as good as a vote for Trump (sitting out this election, voting for some third party). We've seen this scenario play out again and again. People will look for some reason, any reason, not to vote for the Dem nominee, even though their R opponent is clearly going to cause more damage to the things that they supposedly hold dear. Even after 8 years of W, or 4 years of Trump, lots of supposedly smart folks refuse to learn this lesson.
Would love to take Kevin's post and a sampling of the responses here and put them on heavy rotation at the national level. Earth to all these 'leftist' concern trolls (or 'centrist', or whatever): STFU.
It took years for media to call Trump's lies "lies." Now -- finally! -- they're calling the crazy shit that Trump says in public "the crazy shit that Trump says in public."
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1760009259671048224?s=20
I applaud the move. Let's hope others follow CNN's lead.
Fox News will never stop with the "Will Dems Replace Biden" BS because it's another way to repackage and keep Biden's "age problem" in the news.
The problem is, neither will the (so-called liberal) New York Times, the Washington Post, NBC, CBS, ABC, ....
Ezra Klein, a moderate liberal, made an argument there's still time for Biden to drop out so we don't lose to Trump. That's the reality. Deal with it and defend your candidate rather than demand obedience and loyalty like a cult.
No, there isn't time. Josh Marshall has an extensive rundown in today's editor's blog:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/no-ezra-klein-is-completely-wrong-heres-why
Josh Marshall makes two fallacies here:
1. Sunken cost fallacy. We've already used up so much energy putting Biden here it would be wasteful to change cars on the road now. But adaptability is harder in older years of cars and people too.
2. Fortune telling/ Assuming the conclusion.
By funding hostilities against Palestine Biden lost popularity, and Marshall fears this topic might come up. But he oversteps by concluding he knows this is something we must necessarily wish not to see discussed. He's not so subtly prognosticating a circus of angry Arabs and Jews. How comfortable his life is to decide who is allowed to talk!
Kleins argument can be said more forcefully: Biden is polling badly and we shouldn't suffer under Trump because we can't say we're in a cult too under Biden.
Josh Marshall does not make an argument that too much effort has already been spent. He says people in Biden's inner circle will resist an intervention because they might see it that way. There is a difference between falling for the sunk cost fallacy and predicting others are likely to fall for it.
EVERYONE on this issue is "fortune telling". In a situation with imperfect information wise people judge likely outcomes knowing full well they might be wrong. That isn't a fallacy, it is life. Only fools are certain.
As far as a messy convention here is the quote "Will the convention not become a forum for litigating highly divisive issues like Gaza, Medicare for All and the broader contest between progressives and establishment-oriented liberals? The last half century of American politics has been based on the idea that the convention is a highly scripted unity launch event. This alternative would mean a free for all, in which the choice between a number of quite promising candidates will be made by a group whose legitimacy will likely be highly suspect. Not good!"
Proposing a messy convention might damage Dem chances at victory is not tantamount to censorship! You can agree or disagree with him, on your part or his that could be described as "fortune telling"
Marshall's article is really excellent, the best rejoinder to Klein I have seen. At the same time Klein's audio essay is also excellent, the best 'Biden's gotta step down' argument I have seen. Both are argumentation at a high level.
Klein's argument that biden should step down is the best i've heard as well, and it's still not very good. And i'm quite certain it's not good enough to convince Biden, which makes the extended audio essay counter-productive for anyone interested in beating trump.
Democrats absolutely could pick a different nominee if Joe decided to withdraw from the race. In that case he could release his delegates, and the convention could choose a different person.
The problem with this scenario, is, as Kevin points out at the outset, Joe Biden is not going to drop out.
Name recognition is not a cost, but it is baked into the cake.
This isn't a business you can replace in a day.
Great post, forthelove
The TPM link is terrific, but I don't read it the same way. Josh Marshall doesn't say there is no time. He acknowledges Biden could drop out, but:
1. If he did it is speculative a convention-appointed candidate would do better, and
2. Be real. People in Biden's inner circle are not going to stage an intervention. It isn't in their interest to do so, and the facts are not as one-sided as Klein represents.
You know, if it looked as if Trump would lose, Republicans would drop him in a heartbeat. Its only Democrats who wring their hands in the face of reality and delay until it is really too late.
Which it is not yet, but getting close.
...Assumes facts not in evidence.
It doesn't look like Joe is going to lose if you've been following US presidential politics for several decades as I have. He may lose, mind you. It's a worrying possibility. But that would be true for any Democratic nominee in our 50-50 nation.
The polling is tight; Joe's numbers are starting to pick up; consumer confidence is looking much better; presidential numbers tend to improve with improving voter sentiment on the economy.
And again, for the millionth time, Joe's numbers against Trump are better than any other leading Democrat's. It's possible some of that advantage is name recognition. It's also possible a Beshear or Whitmer or Shapiro or Harris or Newsom wouldn't improve the position of Democrats.
It's also pretty likely, I think, that damaging testimony in Trump's myriad trials may hurt his numbers with persuadable voters (as might fading "inflation shock").
Everything's a gamble. Sticking with Joe Biden is a gamble. So is swapping him out (which isn't possible in any event unless he agrees to it).
I really don't want to be in the "I told you so" category come November. But that's the trajectory we're on.
There is no way Biden can overcome the age issue, and he's screwed up with the war in Gaza. I don't expect Netanyahu will bail him out.
I have been observing politics for a long time (I am 78), and I know that image matters. Biden has a lousy one and there is little likelihood he can improve it.
Sure, I will vote for him as the lesser of two evils if he is the nominee. I have often voted for losing candidates.
Congratulations! Your standards are higher than ours. You are willing to risk a second term of Trump rather than settle for less than perfection. Most of us are more than willing to accept a good candidate to avoid a second term of Trump.
Biden and Trump will be the candidates, and I believe that Biden will win.
Again.
In the meantime, the Republican party stridently exhorts the faithful, shrinks, and retreats further and further back into its bunker in Berlin.
Agreed. I haven't for a single minute waivered from my belief Joe Biden more likely than not wins in November. That's not the bet I would make if the election were tomorrow. But it's not tomorrow. I base my estimate on fundamentals, and national conditions. A low inflation economy with full employment is not one where we'd expect to see a party fail to secure a second consecutive term. In fact, going back to at least 1900 it hasn't happened. The sole exceptions (1980, 2020) were both recession years. And Trump moreover is a historically weak candidate who has lost the popular vote twice.
Interesting that no one here is talking about the Republican side of this equation where there is actually someone running against the presumptive candidate. And no I don’t think Haley has (or ever had) a chance. But I’m still glad she is running. She gets under Trump’s skin and she tells hard truths about him as a Republican to Republicans. Like this:
“Haley: It's not normal to insult our military heroes and veterans. It's not normal to spend $50 million in campaign contributions on personal court cases. It's not normal to threaten people who back your opponent. And it's not normal to call on Russia to invade NATO countries. Donald Trump has done all of that just and more in just the past month.”
I want Republicans who don’t like Trump but will probably vote for him to feel bad about it, and maybe, just maybe, leave “President” blank when they vote in November.
It’s weird that Trump is running against a person and Biden is running against a bunch of hand wringing “liberal” media types.
I tried to search for the text that you quote here from Haley. It found some sites, but none of the main news media. And they cannot even say that isn't a good clickbait.
CNN was just running footage of that speech. It was hard-hitting. She's good on the stump.
That makes it even more odd. Why isn't "Haley tears into Trump" top of at least the "politics" pages?
The Democrats have two options on the ballot and had a third in RFK Jr, and they appear to have picked Biden. They could have voted differently, buy two thirds voted for Biden in NH when he wasn't even on the ballot, and Biden got 90%+ in the next two primaries.
The Republicans had a dozen options on the ballot and gave up on all of them in favor of Trump. However, Nikki Haley is still out there and if Republicans didn't want Trump then they have a candidate who polls as if she beats Biden. But Trump polls at 65% in South Carolina where Haley was elected governor.
If the parties were to decide to bypass the voters and go with a different candidate it would be a bloodbath. The MAGA world would eat itself, and Biden is -- very frankly -- the only candidate that everyone is OK with even if he doesn't crank their engine.
I wish a better Democrat had run against Biden, but as you point out Dean Phillips is. He is younger, he is presentable, and he isn't getting many votes.
But Phillips is toxic to the Dem establishment. The status quo is too comfortable for Democratic decision-makers. And besides, when Trump wins they will have Trump as the issue they need to milk megabucks of donations from frightened Democrats.
He's running on Biden's age. Period.
Policies? Accomplishments?
Just another smug rich businessman who thinks that's just what government needs.
I think it is entirely legitimate to moan about something you feel helpless about. See also: Climate change, success in reducing of. Should we all just shut up about it? Also, sometimes things change because at least some people don't shut up about seeming inevitabilities and just keep moaning. See: Abuse of women, #Metoo. I'd like to add Gaza, Biden's change of heart on, but we aren't there yet.
Also, when there is actually a pretty good chance one of the two candidates DOES get run over by a bus, plan B's make sense. Such as doing something about Kamala Harris's undeservedly bad image, or thinking of Gretchen Whitmer or other potential candidates. I think that for many people coming November, the argument "Biden's the candidate, live with it" will not be a reason to turn out but to stay at home.
Maybe you feel more hopeless about beating Trump than we do. Do you honestly feel, baring an unexpected illness or death, that the choice in November won’t be Biden vs. Trump?
Ooh, now predict who will play for the MLB World Series in October. Impossible? Well, how about the NBA Finals? Too far out? March Madness? No?
Well, how about whether Trump will be convicted before the convention in July? Can you tell us the number of convictions before the convention?
What are the odds that either Biden or Trump has a stroke? Heart attack? A COVID infection that turns into long-COVID?
Biden and Trump are presumptive nominees, but there's a good chance fate intervenes this year. These guys aren't spring chickens and the more often you are infected with COVID the higher your risk of long-COVID and/or a heart attack.
+1
Don't blame me; I voted for the bus.
Klein's audio essay is well argued, the best 'Biden has to get out, the convention is the time to do it' argument I have seen, and as Kevin says, it is an Earth 2 scenario.
It proposes an intervention from trusted Biden insiders!
Lawyers, Guns, & Money has a pretty good response to Ezra Klein's audio essay
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/02/can-a-candidate-imposed-on-the-party-be-legitimate
His conclusion: "I suppose there might be a point where Biden’s poll numbers flatline to the extent that this massive risk would be worth it. But let’s say I would be very, very careful."
Seems about right to me.
So, Kevin, and everyone else here
How about This scenario
Trump wins
But the House swings heavily democrat but NOT a veto proof majority and the senate swings further into D territory. Enough of a swing in the senate to allow for say 5 or 6 defections on specific votes but still allow a D win?
Would Trumps supposed nationwide abortion ban up to 16 weeks now turn into 20 weeks? With exceptions for incest, rape and health of the mother?
Would tax cuts be limited to middle class instead of the wealthy?
Trump would not have the support for naming himself King - he would be forced to give in on some things to get legislation passed. Trump is more focused on his legacy than anything else. Would my scenario put Trump in a position where he would have to capitulate in order to get the "Trump Abortion Ban Bill" made into law? Even if it meant dealing with the devil?
Look at the election maps. The Dems could conceivably win the House, but there is no way they will keep the Senate. Look at WV and it's already -1. With Biden at the top of the ticket, we likely lose AZ, OH, and MT at a minimum. Kiss any pickup opportunity in TX goodbye.
Dems will probably lose their Senate majority, but those picks you've made look dodgy to me. I think AZ is anybody's guess, and Tester is well ahead in Montana.
The best the Dems can hope for is a 50-50 Senate.
I agree West Virginia is lost but Tester is leading in the polls in Montana, Gallego is doing well in Arizona (and is running against Kari Lake) and Brown is an incumbent Senator in Ohio with a winning track record. As I said, we shall see...
"The endless pissing and moaning about Earth-2 scenarios is really starting to grate on me."
Poor Kevin. Deal with it.
That sounds like you're from Earth-2. How's Green Lantern? Do you have Hal or John?
I like John, but G'nort and Jessica from their respective Justice League spin-offs I also liked,
If I have to be from Earth-2 in order to voice my opinion, then so be it. As see it, people on Earth-1 are in deep denial about Biden's likelihood of winning.
It's a democracy, right?
If people didn't want they wouldn't vote for them. So agreed, enough is enough!
And Dean Phillips can kiss my ass if he thinks otherwise. Never has five million dollars been so wasted.