It's not over yet, but things are looking grim for Kamala Harris. Was it all down to inflation?
Every incumbent party around the world when the post-pandemic inflation began has lost, regardless of ideology and regardless of where inflation was at the moment of the election.
— David Dayen (@ddayen) November 6, 2024
Here's what the exit polls say about inflation over the past year:
Needless to say, this is crazy. It's perfectly sensible to see big partisan disagreements about abortion or guns or taxes. But a huge partisan split on how much inflation has hurt you?
I think we can say that, obviously, inflation affected everyone roughly the same. It didn't affect Republicans any more harshly than Democrats—not by more than a handful of percentage points anyway. And yet a huge number say it was a severe hardship over the past year. The past year! There's hardly been any inflation over the past year.¹ Maybe Annie Lowrey has it right:
Since I've been a reporter, so since the GWB administration, it's been clear that headline economy statistics have become less and less of a clear guide in terms of telling you what average families are feeling.
— Annie Lowrey (@AnnieLowrey) November 6, 2024
Perhaps. But even assuming that people interpret "the past year" as "ever since Biden took over," it still doesn't make sense that the partisan divide would be so big. This isn't the kind of question that automatically triggers tribal identification, the way some questions do.
In the end, it might be the simplest of things: inflation made people mad. And when they're mad they vote for the out party. They don't care whose fault it was or anything like that. They're just mad, so they vote for a change.
Or maybe it was Fox News banging away about inflation 24/7.
Or maybe there are still just too many men who simply can't bring themselves to vote for a woman. Especially among Latinos.
Maybe, maybe, maybe.
¹2.4% to be exact, almost exactly the average from 2000-2019.
"Inflation made people mad. And when they're mad they vote for the out party."
Seems like that explains the difference between 2020 and now. A critical few percent.
But let's not lose sight that about a third of us straight up want Trump and all he represents.
Are you really this blind?
You lost because of disgusting anti-Semitism, genital mutilation of children, open borders, and attempts to give away the hard earned money of working Americans to entitled brats who think Joe Blue Collar should pay for their college educations while they spit on everything Joe Blue Collar believes in.
I'm not a big fan of Trump but I despise the modern Democratic Party far more than I dislike Trump. I suspect people like me are why Trump won.
I agree much of this. I see many former Dem or Dem leaners turning in revulsion about these things. Some reluctantly voted for her anyway given the alternative. Many didn’t vote. These kinds of things and the left’s cancel culture bullying dissenters into silence is turning people hard against the left. I’m about done and I voted D since ‘88.
left’s cancel culture bullying dissenters into silence
Again, have you taken a look at the actual Republican Party and its supporters?
I have. I don’t agree. I didn’t change my values, the Dems did. Have you taken an actual look at your own party?
You do realize that it’s Trump threatening the media, right?
And you must have been infuriated over DeSantis/Disney, correct?
I am a free speech proponent. I don’t think Trump or Desantis or Walz or Kerry are for free speech. Fighting misinformation and hate speech is the lefty language for this (check out free speech in Canada on this).
I look forward to the country having more than two sclerotic leadership options.
You don't have values.
+1
Cancel culture doesn't exist
good grief
I see this board has been infiltrated by some MAGA chodes today
There are always a few. It's just they are very enthusiastic today.
Their libidos are all lit up.
You lost because of disgusting anti-Semitism
Hove you looked at the Republican Party lately? It has a goodly number of actual white supremacists and antisemites.
genital mutilation of children
Which means that you have paid zero attention to the Democrats actually running for office.
open borders
Which means that you have paid zero attention to the Democrats actually running for office.
attempts to give away the hard earned money of working Americans to entitled brats who think Joe Blue Collar should pay for their college educations while they spit on everything Joe Blue Collar believes in.
Which means that you haven't paid any attention to the actual proposals Democratic office holders have been making.
Thanks for playing, but all you've demonstrated is that you are either clueless or dishonest. Or both.
Good job convincing people. If disagreeing is all it takes to be demeaned, good riddance to this party..
There is more and much deeper antisemitism on the right, “open borders” hasn’t hurt you or America generally, my family’s health care is none of your bleeping business, and there are basic economic reasons that education should be subsidized.
You’ve thrown up some extremely lame reasons for voting for fascists. Ask yourself why.
Funny how Democrats keep insisting that the Right is anti-Semitic while Jewish voters are fleeing to the right in reaction to Democrats' antisemitism.
Importing people who are negative value obviously hurts America. We want people who will work hard and build new lives for themselves, not criminals and dead beats.
Your family's helathcare is our business when you ask doctors to mutilate your children. (BTW, does your position also apply to parents who want their daughters to have clitorectomies or have their clitoris nicked?)
I challenge you to explain the economic reasons why education should be subsidized. Education is supposed to generate positive economic benefits - your education is supposed to increase your income by more than the cost of your education. If that happens, paying back loans for your school fees should not be a problem. If that does not happen, why should I be expected to cover the cost of your mistakes?
I don’t have time to deal with all of them so let’s do female genital mutilation. The three major differences with transitioning are:
1: There is no consent of the child. In contrast, transitioning is almost always child-driven
2: FGM can wait until adulthood without consequence, transitioning cannot
3: The science is 100% against FGM having any benefit, while the evidence is positive, though admittedly weak as of yet for transitioning
1. FGM is often done with the consent of the child.
2. Children cannot consent to having their sex organs cut off for non-medical reasons.
3. Your objections to FGM with a nick would seem to apply far more to circumcision, which obviously cuts off far more than a nick FGM, does not heal as good as new, and is almost always done without the consent of the child.
4. There is currently no evidence that transitioning actually delivers benefits. If a child or other person suffers from Bodily Integirty Identity Disorder we do not cut off the body part that they do not want. We treat their mental illness while restraining them from harming themselves.
Children do not get transgender surgery.
they got pronouns, maybe puberty blockers, and after puberty, hormones.
Adults get surgery, they usually have to pay for it themselves, insurance doesn't.
Meanwhile over 40% of transgender children are sexually assaulted and abused by their families.
You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. Children do get genital surgery. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-transyouth-data/
Harris supports having the government pay for transgender surgery for criminals and illegal immigrants in detention. Absolutely insane.
And I challenge you to provide your evidence that over 40% of transgender children are sexually assaulted and abused by their families. More garbage.
So less than 250 top surgeries per year.
And there are other things that trigger these surgeries (not all of us are born with simple xx or xy genetics, which will often trigger a surgery).
So no, children are not being mutilated. Twice as many children shoot themselves or someone else accidentally with their parents guns each year.
so we should take away their parents guns, right?
"We treat their mental illness while restraining them from harming themselves." How? Just curious as to how awful your answer would be. "There is currently no evidence that transitioning actually delivers benefits.
"Research consistently shows that people who choose gender affirmation surgery experience reduced gender incongruence and improved quality of life. Depending on the procedure, 94% to 100% of people report satisfaction with their surgery results."
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/procedures/gender-affirmation-surgery%23:~:text%3DResearch%2520consistently%2520shows%2520that%2520people,and%2520improved%2520quality%2520of%2520life.&ved=2ahUKEwjX2ZSu_seJAxURFVkFHYHBNCEQFnoECBoQBQ&usg=AOvVaw3pelHC36nhzV4mQF84G2AG
As usual you're full of shit.
The average age for FGM is about 7.
My daughter is that age. The idea that she could consent to surgery that has no medical purpose but rather is a cult ritual that will permanently affect her is beyond absurd.
Double that age and you can start arguing about consent, but even then only if it is driven by the child without parental coercion, which is always the case in FGM.
The comparison is beyond absurd.
Plus, you have to be 18 to have gender-affirming surgery. Nobody is mutilating children except for stuff like FGM and, possibly, circumcision. Your mileage may vary on that.
1. What about nicking?
2. Do you apply a similar standard to male circumcision? Why or why not?
Re: FGM can wait until adulthood without consequence, transitioning cannot
Huh? Nearly all surgical transitions are done in adulthood.
It's hard to believe that you really don't understand this, but education doesn't just benefit the person receiving the education. Having an educated populace obviously benefits us all.
Also, nobody is asking doctors to mutilate children. If Republicans could ever just drop this issue, it would fade into the background where it's always lingered. The constant attacks on trans people force decent people to defend them. Idiots perceive this as somehow advocating for more people to become trans, but that's just because they're idiots. What most people want is for everyone to just mind their own damn business and let people live their lives. It's that freedom and pursuit of happiness thing you might have heard of.
Please explain how I benefit from giving someone an education that is so bad or irrevelant to the real world that it increases his lifetime income by less than the cost of that education.
You sound like a prime example of the problem.
Thank you for the demo.
Actually no. I used my education to attain a pretty good income and my education is fully paid off with no resort to debt forgiveness.
"Importing people who are negative value"
Spoken like a Nazi.
Sorry... you don't think criminal illegal immigrants have negative value to the US?
Ok, you are not arguing in good faith.
"Importing" No one is importing anyone.
"people who are negative value" You try to clean up this horrible staement by pretending you are only referring to criminals, and only referring to their impact on the US. That is not what your sentence said.
Again, spoken like a nazi, and your attempt at cleanup transparenly disingenuous.
Allowing people in is functionally equivalent to importing them.
I have nothing to clean up - illegal immigrants who are criminals or welfare moochers are negative value and I have multiple comments calling them that and condemning Democrats for opposing deporting them.
who is fleeing the the right?
lol
Please stop pretending a Trump supporter can be convinced of anything. And FYI if you felt demeaned by the words clueless or dishonest you obviously have no idea what those words mean and really have no idea who Trump is. For they are an accurate description of a Trump voter. They all voted for a pathological liar. Clueless and dishonest are the nicest things you could say.
+1
Laugh.
So the party of white supremacism and antisemitism is lead by a man whose daughter has converted to Judaism, has a vice presidential candidate married to an Indian, and is doing better with Jewsh, Hispanic (Democrats get the Latinx!) and Black voters than ever before?
I guess the Democratic position is that all those Kikes, Spics, and Coloured folks are too dumb to know who they should vote for... and then you are surpised when they won't vote for Democrats.
As far as your other points go, are you seriously going to tell me that the Democrats support Republican calls to ban castration of minor boys and mastectomies of minor girls due to gender dysphoria? Or that Democrats are not the ones preventing Texas from blocking the declaring sanctuary cities and opposing deportations of illegal aliens when they commit crimes or go on welfare? Or that Democrats are not the ones trying to forgive student loans while Republicans block them?
“he knows some non-white people” is a top tier defense. enjoy
I will enjoy. As will Trump. Because our argument clearly convinced more than half the electorate.
And remember! We did it for Peanut! And to save the dogs and the cats from the Haitians! ... and let's not forget Fred!
Damn... I feel Trumptastic! I'm looking forward to Trumpsgiving and Trumpmas and I will toast the New Year and the inauguration with Champagne glasses full of liberal tears!
And being alone in your rooms at night because so few woman are willing to put up with you.
Actually, not a problem - I'm married.
Oh... and my wife looks HOT in a MAGA hat. And, to put a cherry on top of it, she's pretty brown.
Of course. couldn't get a white woman, could you?
Amazing how conservative "People of Color" can make liberals'. racism suddenly shed its camouflage.
Just like JD Vance, I could get a white woman but I happened to meet an awesome amazing woman who wasn't white and, since I don't fetishize race like a Democrat, I carpe diemed or, in this case, carpe feminaed.
Laugh
the "Dem" is still regurgitating GOP talking points
curious
I think there are two things you're missing:
1 -- most people pay no attention to what specific politicians say, unless they're super clear about it. They pay attention to vibes and the vibes from liberals clearly include some of the things MF complains about.
2 -- Perhaps you should count the # of articles in the left of center media like Slate that use "white men" as a short hand for entitled, ignorant and/or evil. Perhaps they don't like that.
Wow... something sensible.
Mike, are you willing to say how you voted? (I think everyone here knows how I voted!)
BTW, here's a video to send to the Hamasniks in your life... https://x.com/VividProwess/status/1854195505556762624
lol.
Im not a big Trump fan, but he speaks to my racism and hatred, so GO TRUMP!
love the rationalization. Im not a big Hitler fan, but.....
His daughter is a convert to Judaism and he seems to have a great relationship with his Jewish son in law. If he is trying to channel Hitler he's doing a pretty shitty job of it.
And he's married to a woman, too. But he still made women 2nd class citizens.
We won't forget.
"And he's married to a woman, too. But he still made women 2nd class citizens.
We won't forget."
Well, some of you forgot, somewhere around 45%, AFAICT. I don't understand how anyone voted for a ticket that promises to try to enforce a nationwide ban on abortion, which will make it illegal to treat miscarriage properly. But that's where we are.
Money! If you think Trumps acceptance of his daughters conversion to Judaism or having a Jewish son in law isn't due to money you're even more stupid than I thought.
Isn't that the point?
I totally agree that Trump would not have accepted his daughter marrying a poor Jew... or a poor Catholic... or a poor Protestant... or a poor Black.... or a poor White.
But he is totally open to her marrying a billionaire of any creed or color.
No it isn't. lol. Trump can be an antisemite. Just as long as the Jewish person is rich he can tolerate it. Not sure if it translates to all his bigotries though.
Why do you think my family’s health care is any of your business?
The bar for the government stepping into private health care and internal family matters is extremely high, and you aren’t coming anywhere near meeting it.
Do you really want the government to interfere with parental decisions about guns and pools and automobiles and churches, for example?
hmmm. Sounds like you straight up want Trump and all he represents.
Anti-Semitism is evil, either on an elite campus or acted out by murderous Trump-loving neo-nazis. If you think it moved votes en masse you are deluded.
Transexuality? A problem affecting a half percent of the population? Where the dominant Dem position is modest, even conservative (let scientists and doctors, not the govery, work out standards of care, let parents make medical decisions for their children).
You are obsessed with fringe issues, you have become an angry crank, a guy shouting about the gold standard on a street corner or the addled RFK riffing on precious bodily fluids.
You really are out of touch with America.
If you talk to real Americans you will be amazed how many have one or more parents, grand parents, and sometimes great grandparents who fought the Nazis or came to America as refugees from Europe shortly before, during, or soon after WWII.
Those people have heard the stories about anti-Semitism when they were chidren and they are seriously disgusted to see modern day progroms and Judenfrei areas at US college campuses implemented by scum who are protected by liberal professors and college administrators. We all saw the hearings and we saw which party was running interference for the universith presidents when they got called up in front of Congress.
Anti-Semitism is unAmerican and, with the exception of people closely connected to Ivy League universities, most Americans get that.
Transsexuality is the transsexual's business until a man pretending to be or deluded that he is a woman makes it my business by demanding to be allowed into the locker room while my daughter is changing or to compete against her in sports, etc.
"real americans"
They americans I speak to are not real? Spoken like a nazi, again.
I'm not surprised that the Americans you speak to are anti-Semites or do not care about anti-Semitism.
And, yes, those Americans are not real Americans.
But, if it is any consolation you guys do apparently fit in well with today's Democratic Party.
Now, do we really need to discuss why calling anti-Semites unAmerican isn't Nazism?
"I am not a big fan of Trump, but I will now regurgitate all of the GOP talking points on every policy issue today"
lol
+1
"genital mutilation of children"
Just taking one example, but do you always truck in pure bullshit? Transition surgeries are nonexistent in minors. If you want to quibble with trans healthcare, at least have the faintest idea of what it consists of. In teens, that means puberty blockers and hormone therapy, as early as 12 years for the former and 16 for the latter. There's a real debate to be had regarding the efficacy of those therapies, but before having it you need to know what you're talking about.
Or maybe we are an immature, irrational people not fit for self governance.
Yeah, that’s where I’m landing. Look, I don’t like that restaurants are more expensive— and they are, Kevin; my favorite $13 lunch salads are closer to $17 now, and we just spent $40 the other night on three small food-truck burgers and one order of fries to share— but that’s how the world is right now. Trump ain’t going to make anything better, and in much, much bigger ways he’ll be worse.
We’re also saddled with electoral systems that weight urban people less than rural people, so that Republicans only need like 45-48% of the vote to win trifectas. It’s hard to self govern well when some animals (people) are more equal than others.
But I look forward to cheaper food prices after all the farm workers are deported and imports are tariffed. The country will get the governance it deserves.
this
we're trump trash
This. Reality teevee and social media has given truly stupid people a lot of undeserved confidence. They see themselves reflected and feel like they should have a seat at the leadership table. We've always had a large, disengaged, underclass of idiots, but until recently they mostly didn't think to participate in politics. In the past, when they did engage, they at least understood that smart and competent people should be in charge. Now, the Joe Rogans and Donald Trumps of the world have shown them that idiots can do whatever they want. Add in the truly abhorrent social media influencer class, crypto bros, and a dash of coal rolling militia types, all bankrolled by awful tech bros and venture capitalists and goodbye democratic self governance.
All I can say is that I'm thankful to be a middle aged white male professional. if I were a woman or brown person, I'd be looking for an escape hatch about now. I feel terrible for my son, but honestly I think it's his cohort of 20 somethings that probably fucked us all. I had high hopes for his generation, but social media and hideous pod casters have rotted their brains. It's truly amazing what some of them believe, but reality is unflinching and will eventually intrude on their make believe universe.
It's going to get much worse in the next few years. We'll see if Teflon Don will be able to continue evading accountability. I'm actually pretty optimistic about his chances given that just simply lying about everything has worked so far. It's honestly pretty impressive. Nobody ever thought to just invent their own reality and expect everyone to accept it, but apparently that actually works. The thing is, it really only works for the guy on top, so there are going to be a lot of people meeting up with cold, hard reality soon. It just won't be Trump, which is all he cares about anyway.
One more thing... life in America has simply never been as easy as it is right now. Most people don't know true hardship and struggle, so they are free to play fantasy land in the Fox News cinematic universe. For a large cohort of Trump voters, this is basically political LARPing only made possible by the fact that we're all mostly fat and happy. If you keep sending idiots to DC to try to run the country, it will eventually catch up with you. Incredibly, we all had front row seats for a crisis in 2020 and saw what happens when there's a lazy jackass running things. Then we saw a competent administration miraculously pull the economy out of a nosedive to become once again the envy of the world. Then we decided to give the jackass another try - but this time without any professionals to restrain his idiotic impulses. God help us all.
Yeah, Trump and the Republicans did an amazing job convincing people that their situation is worse than it actually is. Trump inherited solid ground in 2020, but we have been teetering on a recession now for a bit now. I really don't have faith that if we do slip into one that a Trump administration and Republican congress will do things to make it better instead of worse.
"Trump inherited solid ground in 2020." Did you mean 2016?
+1
There's a miniscule chance he won't do anything that he promised, because the one thing he does almost as well as lying is breaking promises. But unfortunately the people he surrounds himself with will make sure he does regardless.
I don't expect he will live out the year as president; to be honest.
The billionaires bought the election to install Vance. They figured out the algorithm to program enough people to buy a 3rd-rate entertainer's act; to make it a religious experience for many. Trump is worshiped.
If the story repeats, he's about to meet his cross. If it's the climax, he's the antichrist.
Yeah, one of my first thoughts was he'll be either dead or committed in 6 months and Vance will be president for life. All those 40-year-olds on the Supreme Court, another one as veep, and for the same reasons. They'll give trump an adulatory send-off (fulsome over-the-top translation to heaven) and never look back.
Re: Vance will be president for life.
How is that supposed to work. It still takes a supermajorities at all levels to change the Constitution.
Partly being facetious, but trump is just about to show us that all it takes is doing something and having a compliant Supreme Court say by golly, boss, that's *exactly* what the constitution says.
I feel your pain. Having blue collar types with only an Associates Degree or perhaps not even that voting will destroy democracy.
Maybe we should bring back some kind of test to register to vote? If you can't answer questions about DEI and systemic racism you can't vote. Let's Save Democracy by only letting the RIGHT (meaning left) people vote!
Larry Hogan's miserable result as an anti-Trump Republican suggests the majority of voters weren't punishing Democrats. They were embracing the vile ignorant authoritarian pig who's been performing for them for nine years.
The show must go on. Next season promises to feature more carnage, which is always a crowd pleaser in America.
And the "popular" former governor actually vetoed many things the Maryland Democats voted for - they apparently just forgot all thst, & he was simply remembered as not being MAGA .
He lost.
This time next year, and we'll have President Vance.
That's who the GOP voted for.
Re: inflation. … don’t just look at big-picture inflation. Look at basics. I’ve seen the price of milk chips bread lunch meat (basically my work dinner almost every night) rise noticeably this year. I can see the people in this poll going through the same thing with their basics. I don’t think inflation affected every person the same. But a “severe hardship”? That sounds at least a little like an excuse to vote the way they want for other reasons.
I’d be interested in seeing how much housing was a factor with young people and other small but really pissed off and possibly pivotal groups. I know some people and hear about many more who are stressed even depressed about their housing situations. (I am too.) Even some of the homeless people are people with jobs who had homes that they lost when rent rose much more than they could afford. …. Not that homeless vote much, but it’s all indicative of what a holy mess housing has become, at least outside my window
I suspect housing was an issue that remained under-the-radar somewhat. I haven't done a deep dive on the numbers lately, but the headlines I've scanned suggest the market for homes is quite moribund because of stubbornly high mortgage rates (they've backed up again over the last couple of months, I believe) and prices that stickily won't come down.
Also, while rent increases have cooled, a lot of cities have seen pretty big increases since 2019 (even if they're no longer rising so quickly), and one''s rent check is a monthly reminder of higher prices. I realize many people have seen nice pay increases over the last five years, but apparently Homo economicus is highly fixated on nominal and not real price increases.
Once we deport the 22 million people, lots of housing should flood onto the market and drive down prices. It did when the Nazis exterminated the Jews. Win-win!
It's an excuse. Like everything else. The issue of gender and transgender people have little to nothing to do with the every day concerns of most if not all Trump supporters. I thought people would tire of all the hate. I was wrong. People seem to thrive on it. One of them posts here regularly and never deviates from his hate fests.
Re: I’ve seen the price of milk chips bread lunch meat
All those have been pretty stable (this year) down here where I live.
Come on, Kevin...are you new to this country? You'll see this same partisan divide on virtually any question you ask.
C'mon, folks. We had that "economic insecurity" post-mortem in '16. Let's not do it again with "inflation." Sure, some people are struggling, which has been true for every election since we started this once-great democracy, but never did we elect Donald F. Trump and then did it again. There's something else going on and I think we know what it is. Not to mention, the absolutely shameful media complicity.
At this hour, market futures are soaring. (Crypto too, but that's another story.) Has the market (whoever he is) decided that Trump was just kidding about the tariffs? I don't see how this ends well.
Has the market (whoever he is) decided that Trump was just kidding about the tariffs? I don't see how this ends well.
I'm skeptical we'll see a sustained rally in equities, but investors may be calculating that Trumpian tax cuts will juice business profits, at least in the short/medium term, and so share prices will rise.
As for the dollar rally (fuck me, I need to buy dollars tomorrow, sigh), that's most likely driven by expectations that the deficit (and thus interest rates) will rise.
I do not see Trumpian economic policy ending well, either, but it could take a couple of years for things to unravel.
When it unravels, that’s when we’ll see democrats allowed to be in power again. The Dem exist now solely to clean up Republican messes, then are fired as soon as the cleanup is over or the cleanup takes too long.
Especially if the cleanup is painful for some. The conditioning of conservative minds is an ongoing process. If the GOP take everything I can see a right to work law being passed nationally. Quite honestly I can't think of a group of people more deserving of some karma than union Trump supporters. I don't say that lightly, I'm a teamster.
Yes, I expect it was mainly inflation. Too many Americans just wanted 2019’s prices back.
Actually you is right. That’s just what I’ve heard. Prices stop rising isn’t enough. They want prices to roll back .
Most voters know little about policy, and are substantially illiterate in terms of economics. Also, the “newness” of inflation (we hadn’t seen problematic inflation in forty years) made it a hideous and unexpected *shock*….which intensified the angst. What American voters are showing is something electorates throughout the rich democratic world have demonstrated over the last year or two.
In other words, they prefer to live in a fantasy world rather than the real one. If you voted for Trump because you hate inflation, you haven't really thought through the consequences of the policies he promotes. All of them are deeply inflationary.
If you voted for Trump because you hate inflation, you haven't really thought through the consequences
Yes, as I wrote above, most voters are substantially ignorant in terms of policy. But that's been forever: look at 1980. Voters broke heavily for Reagan because they were angry about an economy whose problems had approximately nothing to do with Carter's policies. And they reelected Reagan in gigantic numbers because they were rewarding him for a prosperity that again, had nothing to do with White House policies.
In Reagan’s first term inflation was well over 10% and yet he was easily reelected.
I’m going with fear of immigrants and fear of white’s losing their demographic advantage.
In Reagan’s first term inflation was well over 10% and yet he was easily reelected.
Uh, not annually (maybe cumulatively). By 1984 the economy was roaring. Something like 7% growth and 5% inflation (which was less than half the inflation peak reached in 1979-1980).
It's no wonder voters gave him a second term. And no, he didn't deserve an ounce of credit (the credit belonged to Paul Volker) but they gave it to him anyway.
Which isn't going to happen. Voting angry is like food shopping while hungry. You make bad decisions.
I think I have an answer to your question of why this is such a partisan split. We are defacto segregated by party. We don't talk about the same things, which means we have a different experience of those things, and a different emotional set to the same things.
All of the common experiences we used to have together would moderate this a fair bit, but we don't really have those experiences any more. There's no news that everybody watches - that's a big one. But there aren't really the kind of TV show that everybody watches either.
Dems should be scared, parts 1 and 2
1) Harris, a woman, did 3 percentage points worse among female voters than Biden. So reproductive rights not that big an issue?? (If women won’t defend that, why should I?)
2) high turnout, but while the population has become more diverse, it appears tonight the electorate has become less diverse. Related: Trump wins big among first time voters.
If women won’t defend that, why should I?
Because you're a decent human being?
Nah, that’s definitely not it. See below.
Harris, a decent human being, lost to Trump, a fucking scumbag. Apparently it doesn't pay to be decent lately in American politics.
I should explain my frustration with the abortion issue. Fintan o’toole has a piece in ny review of books that sez, among other things, that Hillary wasn’t helped by playing the “woman card” as much as she did because that helped only marginally with women voters and didn't come close to making up for the huge backlash among men who ran to trump (because, I say, they were scared of women). And that caused Harris to downplay her femininity this time. But I thought Harris was smart to wait until near the end to hit the coming national abortion ban hard.
….. Well Harris and I apparently don’t know women. Sure, state abortion rights protections passed everywhere that trump won. But don’t those people realize that you can pass all the state measures you want. Trump, the gop and Supreme Court will wipe them away with a national ban. What’s that you say? Supremes already said abortion a state issue, you say. Have you known any of these groups, even this lineup of the supremes, to care about the law or precedent. This is the “cause I said so” court (soon to get at least 2 new very young members to serve for 50 years or so. They are scouring the high school young republicans starting tomorrow. Credentials? No need in the new trumpest senate.)
…. So I give up on the abortion issue. Let me know when women think control of their bodies is more important than the price of milk.
We told you Democrats that you would pay for ending the filibuster for judicial confirmations. Now you are going to pay... good and hard!
There is a price to violating norms and you guys need to learn that price so you stop doing it.
Now you are going to learn the price of the most recent norm you broke - trying to use the courts to prosecute your political enemies. I'm looking forward to that one.
Ha, ha, ha ... I seem to remember something about the turtle and norms. And well, Trump was and is an unrepentant criminal. Politics has nothing to do with. Or can all politicians commit crimes whenever they feel like it?
I guarantee that within the next 5 years the Supreme Court will ban abortion nationwide by ruling that fetuses are persons under the 14th Amendment.
Another example of why you should support the Constitution rather than lawlessly using judges to rewrite it when you can't win at the major box.
The Constitutional position on abortion is clear. The Constitution days nothing about it, regulating it is not one of Congress's enumerated powers, so it is up to the states.
But after fifty years of Roe v Wade forcing states to allow abortion, how can you argue that turn about isn't fair play and a conservative court shouldn't find a way to ban abortion nationally for fifty years?
Conservatives won't agree to follow rules that liberals break with impunity.
So it seems that if you ask an awful lot of women to decide between bodily integrity for themselves, their daughters, their sisters, their mothers, on the one hand, and putting a woman behind the Resolute Desk and presidential podium, they just have to know there's a prick behind the presidential seal. The image is that ingrained.
Re: Trump, the gop and Supreme Court will wipe them away with a national ban.
Not going to happen. Abortion will remain a state level issue. Trump is no kind of social conservative and he has exactly zero reason now he would go along with such a ban.
Trump was never the issue. He will litteraly sign whatever bill the GOP puts in front of him. Shrug and say something like "oh well, I tried."
Yet there have been some reports of women voting for a pro-choice referendum but choosing to vote for trump, either because some other policy of his aligned with their thinking, or because his many stances on abortion convinced them that he wasn't all that opposed - now that it's up yo the states to create a patchwork of different rights for women
We don't need reports, we can see the results to confirm that.
Now I have to listen to this guy speak vile nonsense while he and Elon ruin the lives of people around me for 4 more years? …. Did you see Melania push back on Trump when he tried to hug her? …… 4 more years.
I do the food shopping and without fail my wife complains when I tell her how much it cost relative to what we used to pay. I usually say it’s just what things cost and sometimes I remind her we are making more than ever and save a decent chunk of money almost every month and regardless she gets annoyed again the next week. My wife pays no attention to the inflation rate but is reliably committed to left politics. I could imagine many other people with less committed politics to be angry enough about the cost of things to change their vote.
Also behavioural economics tells us people feel losses far longer than appreciate gains and that losses hurt almost twice as much as gains. So even when wages outpace inflation most people will be more upset by that even if they have a little more money.
👍
I, also, the thumbs up.
Was looking for this comment. My brother is in his 50s and is completely apolitical. He works two jobs to make ends meet. He and his African-American wife are both absolutely struggling because of how much prices are higher now than in 2019 when their incomes have not gone up at all. Both were mad about it and both voted for Trump because he was the "out" party.
For him it is not the Fox News effect because their household can't afford cable TV. It's simply that they were angry at the state of prices and wanted to express that.
It also didn't help that Dems took the strategy of "lol, wut inflation?"
They will be so much better off with Trump, I’m sure.
It sounds like your brother and his wife will soon be paying the price for being "apolitical" (which is just a nicer word for "ignorant"). Good luck to them.
some thoughts for your brother:
Fed is biggest influence on inflation, independent of president.
Tariffs are super-inflationary.
Imagine food and construction prices if millions of undocumented people are deported.
I know he's your brother, but maybe he needs to learn about what the president can and cannot do, and before voting for Trump should have learned what tariffs are.
AP called PA for Trump. Unless they were premature, the race is over.
I guess I wasn't wrong these past 12 months when I kept reiterating the point that headline inflation mattered a lot, especially to the working poor.
Cost of eggs, Oreos, and a Big Mac, in the end, shocked the blue collar straight into the arms of a liar who promised to fix everything.
Yes.
"Needless to say, this is crazy. It's perfectly sensible to see big partisan disagreements about abortion or guns or taxes. But a huge partisan split on how much inflation has hurt you?"
It is not crazy if (and i fact if one is not doing simplistic pseudo trend lines on national data one could see this) as
A. different regions experienced higher inflation than others
B. different especially labouring class expeirenced higher inflation of the parts of their consumption basket they care about most
Inflation denialism and "Fox News" as explanation has been quite the self-inflected blindness of the Democrats - Drum etc - rather than admission of a reality.
doing "bourgeoisie white collar-splaining" on Inflation to labouring class is part of a wider pattern on the US of the same myopia, the same over-focus on the modes and concerns of a fraction who dominates the white collar who went to Unis and are all full of Uni campus mores and thinking.
and now you have gifted the world with Trump II, you bloody idiots. Another Trump administration. God save us all.
Of course is you had looked at international examples early on this would not be a surprise - populations hate inflation, hate it passionately and tamping it down is the best thing you can do politically, not pretence that it's not the case.
lol, this moron.
Its always culture war under the pretense of economics.
Democrats are to blame for everything because i pretend to understand economic issues.
lol
+1
This would be true, if Biden Administration did nothing as inflation rose and since the rate has gone down to 2.2 percent from 9. 1 percent, something Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford would have killed for, without inducing a recession, one would think the voters would reward the incumbent Administration for such actions especially when his opponent is promising to slap on 409 percent tariffs. Now make sense of that.
Because populations are by and whole at the macro level ignorant. This isn't unique to Americans, and it has been true across all time. People don't know how tariffs work. They think it simply means that we'll tax China instead of Americans.
"Of course is you had looked at international examples early on this would not be a surprise - populations hate inflation"
Oh, so the recent bout of inflation was a global phenomenon and not a US-specific issue? It's too bad that the majority of the voters didn't actually care about inflation at all or they might have realized that Biden was not the cause.
Of course, they didn't care about inflation. They just wanted to use it as an excuse to punish the people they want to see punished.
1. Women, for having the gall to try and control their own bodies.
2. Immigrants, for having the gall to work the underpaid jobs that "real Americans" won't do
3. Trans people, for having the gall to try and control their own bodies (that sounds familiar)
4. Liberals, because it's fun to punish "others", especially when the punishers will never turn on you (right? they won't right?)
+1
People who voted for Trump gave us Trump.
What would you have had the Administration do about inflation?
Well, to start with,
1. Cut spending
2. Don't pass an "Inflation Reduction Act" that has nothing to do with cutting inflation
Re: different especially labouring class expeirenced higher inflation of the parts of their consumption basket they care about most
How? Yes, I can see that when it comes to housing if you rent: you are exposed to a housing price increase once a year (or more) while people paying on a mortgage are not. And if you have kids of college age and who are going to college then you get hit with those increases too. But things like gasoline and food cost the same (in the average) for everyone regardless of what soioeconomic class you belong too.
"Or maybe there are still just too many men who simply can't bring themselves to vote for a woman. Especially among Latinos."
Several Latin American countries have already elected a woman as President, including most recently Mexico just this year.
A majority of American men, regardless of race, are just too broken in the US. Way too stupid. too egotistical, too narcisistic, and with too much desire to control anyone who they deem inferior to them, which almost everyone else.
The claims that (1) voters mostly make their choices because of cultural issues and (2) inflation decided this election, can both be true, and in this case probably are.
We'll have to wait and see what Trump's final numbers are, but it would certainly appear persuadable voters broke very heavily for the GOP this cycle.
And yet Trump obviously wouldn't have won without the support of the 40%+ of the electorate that's fairly reliably red—his base.These voters mostly vote nowadays out of cultural concerns. This no longer bears serious debate in my view, the protestations of the "What's the matter with Kansas" crowd notwithstanding. That's why the electorate is divided on education attainment lines. College-educated knowledge workers and non college-educated service/blue collar workers apparently view the world quite differently these days. (Yes, in a nation of 335 million you're going to find some exceptions, sure, but this description is mostly valid).
But unlike reliable blue or red partisans, persuadable voters are not highly reliably culturally conservative or culturally liberal. And if they're cheesed off that a Happy Meal costs double what it did five years ago, they're going to punish the incumbency brand. Mind you they're factually wrong to vote for Trump if what they're angry about is inflation that ended a year ago, but the fact that they're mistaken is of little consolation at this point.
I read something somewhere today,, can’t remember where, that some thing like 7 percent of trump voters made up their minds in the last few days. Whether that number is correct, the point is data people agree with you on “persuadable voters ”. I remember mr. Drum predicting, and I agreed, that those late undecideds would break for Harris . …….you got me on what happened.
I doubt it.
I would believe that 7% of Trump voters made up their minds to vote at all in the last few days.
We can thank Peanut's killers, Joe Biden's garbage slur, and general disgust with Harris, Walz, and Democrats and elites for getting them off their asses and to the polls.
"The claims that (1) voters mostly make their choices because of cultural issues and (2) inflation decided this election, can both be true, and in this case probably are."
Sometimes when people feel generally uneasy they can seize on something like rising prices and point to that as the reason, when somebody asks them why they're antsy.
I'm not saying higher food and housing prices aren't a real problem for a lot of people, and a lot of them fall into the persuadable group. But that isn't who xmabx upthread is describing, for instance, and it isn't trump's most committed core, the ones with flags on their boats and who have small businesses.
For these types, free-floating unease that comes from what they see around them, how they experience government interactions, and most importantly from what stories they're being told about the people who make decisions that affect them, is something they can't talk to pollsters about but can attach to the response choices they're given.
The stories about people whose decisions affect them are especially important, and they don't have to be accurate, just emotionally satisfying. That's what I think all the ads about the trans and immigrant menace were about.
And I think a lot of people who don't feel particular economic hardship point to inflation because it's an option they're given on polls.
Unless immigration is a "cultural" issue- and you can make the argument that it is-- I doubt very much that "traditional" culture war issues had much to do with people's votes.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on that one. Here in central PA the population is very white, very traditionalist, feeling very overlooked and ignored (going back to the railroad's decline in the 1950s and interstate highways in the 60s and 70s), doesn't like seeing their kids have to move away to get decent jobs, doesn't like seeing Spanish-language signs in chain stores, often doesn't particularly like seeing their kids stan for black/Hispanic athletes and urban music, etc. (A lot don't mind that latter point, to be fair, and they generally like seeing their daughters get involved in athletics in ways they themselves couldn't have. But the bigger backdrop of feeling overlooked or taken for granted underlies everything else.) That's also Wisconsin and Michigan and Ohio outside the major cities. Iowa and Nebraska too, I'd guess.
These *could* be interpreted as economic/status issues, and I think they are maybe half-way if stretched. But the other half is that as far as they can see, all the growth and all the attention are on the women and visible minorities. Of course they're told that in their closed-circuit media, but that media hooks them because they feel that way to begin with. And that's why the stories they get in their media about the people who make the big decisions resonate with them. And it so happens that Dems personify exactly the bad things they're being told about the people who make the decisions that affect their lives.
Most of the immigration that gets any attention is very visibly not European. A lot of what they're shown about immigrants has them outlandishly tattooed and looking and acting like wild men, doing repulsive and barbaric things like eating the neighbors' cats and dogs (how did they forget about the pet birds, I wonder)-- things "white people just wouldn't even think of doing."
Call me crazy, but I'm inclined to say that's "cultural."
Oops ignore
Boy, that coming gift of Ukraine to Putin will sure beat all those Covid machines trump sent to him while Americans were dying. ….And Putin was worried about trump being caught. How adorable! Even Putin overestimated Americans.
I'm done trying to figure out the American people, I truly am.
Apparently they DON'T want peace and prosperity. It was there under Clinton/Gore but the people rejected it. Instead they got 9-11, war and the Great Recession. Things seemed pretty good under Obama too in 2016. How did the people reward the Obama Administration? By rejecting Hillary Clinton for Donald Trump. And now here we have an unemployment rate at four percent, inflation rate at 2.2 percent, we've got things back to normal again after 2020 and what do the voters decide to do? Go back to the fellow who caused the mess in the first place!
So what are the Democrats supposed to do, hmm? Simple, sit back, watch it all fall apart and wait for the people come running back screaming to save them again, just like in 2020, or 2008, or 1992. A Canadian politician said long ago people vote out governments not vote them in. Actually, I have a better idea. The party should dissolve itself, let America suffer one-party rule, and when they turn to the Democrats for help the Dems can say "Fuck y'all. You knew exactly what you were voting for. Fix it yourself. You're the experts." Indeed I would get sick of fixing GOP messes if in the end all you're rewarded with is election defeats.
I mean we can talk about for days about all this shit but there's no good answer to it. You voted for someone who sparked a riot on Capitol Hill because of the price of eggs. I don't get that. I can't fathom it. It would have never happened before. Blame the Biden Administration for maybe not explaining well what was going on, that Avian Flu, COVID affecting supply chains, the Russian-Ukraine War was increasing prices but when inflation is at 2.2 percent and your opponent is promising to increase it with tariffs and you still lose the election? What else can you say but fuck this shit?
And anyone over the next four years who says "We didn't think it was going to be this bad" I will kick in the dick and balls and I hope you do too. How can you say something like this when it was explained to you by the very people you voted for how bad it was going to get? Actually I hope Trump wins the popular vote and I now hope the GOP gets the trifecta, because they deserve to own it, they and all their voters. This is the America they want and they voted for it. And they deserve the consequences of their their actions. It's sad the rest have to suffer too but they cannot blame anyone else and if ruin is the only way to destroy the twisted reality they've created for themselves, so be it. They will have earned it.
amen. they wanted it and they got it. americans are really fucked up. as kevin has said the u.s. is really a conservative country. conservative and very fucking stupid. the thing that bothers me is that their stupidity will also screw up my life in europe and the rest of the world. go figure.
It might feel good to blame inflation....but lets not pretend that Trump wasnt also quite popular (comparatively) in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021.
He amped up the racism, hatred and mysoginy...and that was the key. This was always the key to his popularity.
A few days ago we were assured that he was blowing it by taking his focus off inflation the last few months to focus on the hatred.
But it worked, just like it did before.
Exactly. When did he talk about inflation in the last few weeks or even months? It was all culture war
I guess you can bash trans people and immigrants and win an election.
The culture war stuff mostly falls flat if the economy has been good and inflation low for a while. Economic pressure amps up the culture war issues. "Why are we giving free hotel rooms to illegal immigrants when my family is struggling to pay for groceries and rent?"
If that family isn't struggling, they might still vaguely resent illegal immigrants, but won't be foaming at the mouth angry about it.
+1
It might feel good to blame inflation....but lets not pretend that Trump wasnt also quite popular (comparatively)
This is just not so. Trump's negatives remained high throughout his presidency, and likewise were high throughout this election. We knew his base wasn't going to abandon him: this election was always about persuadable voters. The most parsimonious explanation is that persuadable voters in the America—like voters in most affluent democracies over the last couple of years—took out their displeasure at higher prices on the incumbency party.
Popular as in popular at the ballot box. Lots of votes.
The other obvious variable is that in general elections he is 2-0 vs women, 0-1 vs men. In elections that didn't focus on his covid bumbling that killed lots of Americans, he is undefeated.
It's not so logical to say that because you assume voters in other countries with worse economies punished officials at the height of inflation, then voters in the US also punished Harris for inflation that ended well over a year ago.
It is logical to state that inflation ended a year ago. It is also logical to say that prices have not and will never go back down to their 2019 levels. So that 12 pack of Coke that used to be 4.99 is now 9.99. And there's tons of other stuff in the grocery store that also jumped up permanently in price, and people are pissed about it.
Yes, people are wrong in thinking that "ending inflation" means going back to 2019 prices, but that's what Americans generally want. Trump's tariffs will raise prices further, but this election was not about well-thought out policy choices. It was anger at the country going in the "wrong direction."
Sad but those folks backing trump are most likely to be hurt along with the rest of us. Then it be another round of blame it on Dems.
Been working for the not-conservative Rs for decades.
bingo
It's not overly complicated. Party loyalty and FOX propaganda is strong. You couldn't ask for a worse candidate for Gov in NC (Robinson) and he still garnered 40%. Absolutely no redeeming qualities and his supporters have no valid arguments.
Country-wide are people that will vote for a party (especially in the GOP), regardless of the quality of their candidate and there's not much anyone can do about it.
It's not overly complicated. Party loyalty and FOX propaganda is strong
That explains why Trump held onto this base, but no one seriously thought that was in question. But party loyalty doesn't explain why he appears to have gained something like 3 points in popular vote share. In other words, why did new or persuadable voters apparently break overwhelmingly for Trump?
The most plausible answer is the inflation burst we saw in 21-23. "Incumbency party presiding over inflation given a bloody nose by the electorate" isn't a very exotic story. Indeed it's an old story.
Yes. Okay. But it appears he did better amongst first time voters. IIRC the only measure of inflation to people in that age bracket is the price of gas. It is everywhere and a big deal when you don't have much. But the price of gas isn't high, so where is the inflation for them? Are they thinking they will never be able to purchase a new F150 Raptor?
I could even deal with losing control of the Senate, but Trump is a terrible person. He is a felon. Even if I agreed with his policies I couldn't vote for him. It appears he is going to win every swing state.
Grocery prices (and rent) are noticeably higher than pre-2020. I do the grocery shopping for my household and see it every time I go to the store.
When I was in grade school I wondered how it was possible that people in Germany allowed the Nazis to take power. Now I’ve had a front row seat. Imaginary fears and piles of BS and a lack of critical thinking is all it takes. It’s going to be a rough ride. I’m sceptical our nation will survive.
One good thing that has come out of this is that it exposed the hypocrisy of the right wing evangelicals and “Christians”. Morality meant nothing to the right wing. Just a desire for power. All that BS about morality and piety was just so much window dressing. Jesus and the Bible are just clubs used to subdue their enemies.
People worried about inflation. Just wait to see what you get. People worried about the Palestinians. They are gone. The Ukrainians are gone. Poland will fall soon after.
Can't speak to Ukraine or Palestinians, as they will be abandoned completely by the US.
Not worried about Poland, as Russia is incapable of doing the same as they did in Ukraine. Their military is a shell. Poland is much more prepared and crossing that line would likely bring in other European countries. He only wants Ukraine, no matter his bluster.
More concerned about Israel using us to attack Iran and escalate the region even further. Israel cares little for the US, other than for $$$ and guns. Can't forget the $4 billion Saudi payoff. Now the bill will come due and Trump won't want to lose the cash.
Re: He only wants Ukraine, no matter his bluster.
I think Putin would take Moldova too, and maybe turn east and look at Kazakhstan-- which has some vital natural resources.
My vote was easy because Jan. 6th lasts forever in my book. To
others this is a trifle compared to the price of eggs.
there is a Gulf between our ways of thinking.
Second that
and NO one asked him HOW he'd get those egg prices back down. But then red voters never wanted to look behind the curtin.
Gerald Ford (Whip Inflation Now)
Jimmy Carter
Joe Biden/Kamala Harris
high inflation is too burdensome for most incumbent administrations to overcome
Snark time: Boy, this brings to mind Kevin's repeated posts declaring inflation to be, um, essentially no problem. Remember those 2nd order curve fits that showed price rises to be diminishing? (a characteristic of 2nd order if you set the beginning and end points in time to your liking).
This does not appear to be 2016 when he won, but lost the popular vote. It appears that a majority of voters have actually voted for him. A convicted con artist.
It also appears that the Republicans will win control of the Senate and increase their House majority.
I am not sure if I am more shocked or more disappointed.
Just get ready for the coronation.
The sad part is that the people who are saying that the economy is worse right now than under Trump are either ignorant (which is sad) or lying (which is infuriating). Are some things more expensive than they used to be? Yes. Are those increases affected in ANY way by Presidential actions or views? Absolutely not.
There's always anecdotal data. There really are some people who are worse off now than they were under Trump. Unfortunately, the majority do not understand even basic economics and they literally read no news about things happening outside of the US. As a result, they have no idea that inflation has been a global issue and it's therefore impossible for it to have been caused by Biden's administration.
One question that I feel is important is "Which candidate and political party is preferred by self-proclaimed Neo-Nazis and White Supremacists?". The answer turns out to be Trump and the Republican party. Now, without delving into the details of any of Trump's or the Republican's stances on issues, I think the only logical conclusion is that these Neo-Nazis and White Supremacists see something in Trump and the Republicans that they feel reflects their views. There is no way that they would say "He's against everything I stand for but I'm going to support him anyway."
So, given that knowledge, as a voter I have to think about whether my political values align with the values of Neo-Nazis and White Supremacists. If they do, then the choice is easy. If they don't then anyone with an ounce of self-reflection would stop and ask themselves "Why would my political values align with the same party that Neo-Nazi and White Supremacist political values align with?"
I'm not here to answer that question for anyone else. However, I do reserve the right to judge Trump/Republican voters using the same criteria I use for myself.
It's easy to see why someone might say inflation didn't hurt them. It didn't hurt my wife and I, because we live on perhaps 20% of our income. If that number happened to be 22% for a couple of years, I wouldn't even notice.
However, FWIW, the people who would notice because they don't have a lot of money are actually Democratic voters. So, the wrong people are complaining about inflation.
Kevin is apparently arguing about some small increment which supposedly put Trump over the top this time. There are many op-eds in the papers which try to identify such a thing, and they get several different other answers according to their own prejudices.
But the reason that someone as incompetent and malevolent as Trump is even competitive is simply bigotry of various kinds. Trump's rhetoric and Republican campaign ads got even more vicious and bigoted (as well as false on many issues) as the election approached. The MSG rally was a major event which most voters must have been aware of. This increase in bigotry went along with a decline of Harris's lead in the national polls. So what it comes down to in the long run and the short run is that Trump won because of bigotry. The economic explanations don't make sense and that is because they are wrong; people don't admit to bigotry in polls or interviews so they claim they find fault with the economy.
The economy and inflation were not issues in 2016. Trump came out of nowhere politically with little money backing for one reason, the same as what gave him the win this time.
This is nothing new with Trump; Republicans have been relying on racism for over fifty years. It's too bad that so many in the media, apparently including Kevin, seem determined to deny the defining role of bigotry in American politics.
And bigotry is important in other countries too. Many European countries have immigration problems.
Some other things that weren't issues in 2016: Gaza and trans-sexualism. Before you try to pinpoint other supposedly decisive issues, see whether they were factors in 2016. And this works the other way - there were no Hillary's emails this time.
I agree with this. I’m very skeptical that “inflation” was the reason Trump won. I very much think Harris lost because she is female and that the focus on transphobia was a winning tactic for Trump. Also, his mass deportation scheme has surprising (for me) support amongst democrats.
Bigotry doesn't explain Trump doing better with POC voters.
Er, black people dislike a lot of immigrants too.
Trump did better with immigrants andf their children, too.
I heard more than a few interviws with Hispanic immigrants who said, basically, 'I did it the right way, these other people are cutting the line.'
Bigotry is insufficient as an explanation.
Yeah, the racism is one of the reasons a portion of his base likes him, no doubt. But it's not the only explanation—certainly not for the result we just saw. I read somewhere that he apparently crushed it with Puerto Rican voters in Florida. PUERTO RICANS, the folks who were just insulted by his pre-rally comedian!
The only explanation that makes sense to me is that his improvement over 2020 is largely due to working class voters who have seen their living standards crimped. We knew he was going to hold on to his base. But what explains the extra 3-4 points of the popular vote he's apparently going to win? It's the economy, stupid.*
(*I realize the inflation burst is in the past at this point. But most voters don't have economics degrees, and the recency of this burst means they're still focusing on nominal prices. Also, I'd like to see statistics for the increase in median household income for the bottom half of the income distribution over the last four years. While I doubt we've seen actual shrinkage—nominal wages have mostly kept up with inflation, and have been exceeding it over the last eighteen months—my guess would be the number is on the low side for a first term administrations not dealing with a recession).
The Fox News audience is tiny
Just stop it with this hobby horse.
Fox news is shorthand for the entire right wing propaganda machine.
Vast numbers believe immigrants are the source of our problems. Vast numbers believe the 2020 election was stolen. These beliefs did not come from nowhere.
Their audience might be small but how many other people link to their stories? I think their reach far surpasses their number of viewers.
I think it was bigger than inflation although that was real for some people. Young folks don't remember the inflation crisis of the 70s and 80s nor the sub prime mortgage crisis from 07-08.
Republicans also successfully made the case that Democrats were sending money to Ukraine and Israel instead of helping Americans. And that the Democrats were more interested in helping "illegals" than us.
I don't believe it but I think many Americans do
Yes. And people don't spend much time listening to politicians. The right wing propaganda machine was the vector for these brainworms.