President Biden's vaccination mandate for businesses with over 100 employees is dead. The Supreme Court killed it earlier today.
But what about states? They can still pass vaccination mandates if they want to. California, for example, was all ready to pass one a few months ago but then put it on hold after the 5th Circuit Court struck down the federal mandate:
Cal-OSHA is empowered to write statewide rules as long as they meet or exceed any federal standard, and in fact it met last week in part to do just that with regard to COVID and large companies. But the board subsequently backed down, saying it would wait for the federal case to be resolved.
Well, the federal case has now been resolved, which means that states are free to move ahead. So far, though, all I've heard is a bunch of crowing from red state governors who are thrilled that the Supreme Court has beaten back this assault on our freedoms.
But what about blue states? Are any of them putting mandates in place? Illinois has already done it, but California hasn't yet. Neither have New York, Massachusetts, Oregon, or other big blue states. This is something to watch over the next few weeks.
Not only states, but individual employers can require employees to be vaccinated, can’t they?
Until their governor or legislature bans such mandates:
“ Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Monday issued another executive order cracking down on COVID-19 vaccine mandates — this time banning any entity in Texas, including private businesses, from requiring vaccinations for employees or customers.”
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/11/texas-greg-abbott-covid-19-vaccine-mandate/
What Republicans cannot seem to understand (like they want to understand) is that a Federal Law would provide cover for state, local and corporate entities. IANAL but it would seem to me that such a law forces those pursuing lawsuits, to have to do so in Federal Court, taking a large part of the legal burden.
Stupid, stupid and dumber.
Yeah, but it's not about where the actual battles get fought or policy or even actual governance. It's about Abbott shoring up bona fides with the crazy right by trolling liberals and other folks interested in ending the pandemic.
"Stupid, stupid, and dumber," absolutely covers it!
Sure, in many states individual employers can require employees to be vaccinated, but they would really prefer the government to take heat for the decision.
They can, but many worry about losing workers. We have a local ferry running and a dozen or so crew members claimed religious exemptions. That's nearly half the total staff. Needless to say, nine of those unvaccinated crew members are out sick with COVID. The ferry had to reschedule things using the vaccinated members of the crew and cut its schedule.
The ferry management should have enforced their mandate, but they were obviously afraid of losing crew members. You can't hire someone off the street for this job. They need training and Coast Guard certification. Still, the ferry offers good wages and benefits so they could have hired a new crew with some planning.
For now, the ferry is running at half capacity. Soon, most of the infected crew will return to work with five or six months of natural immunity, and the original. schedule will resume. Still, there is a problem in the offing. Getting infected doesn't buy one more time than the vaccine, so as the summer high season approaches, these guys are likely to get infected again. Maybe some of them will get vaccinated or we'll all get lucky and COVID will go away, but maybe not.
Why bother???? It's waste in a nutshell.
If you haven’t gotten vaccinated by now, why do we care? To heck with them. Dead republicans and crazy people are a feature of this pandemic which I think is awesome.
Meanwhile… here’s another dead republican gun nut. Sometimes the gods are just generous with their cosmic justice.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/485132-john-kuczwanski-killed-in-road-rage-incident/
More like dead niggers.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Don’t feed the increasingly desperate troll.
JFC Kevin, when will you ban this racist piece of shit?!
A lot of dead peckerwoods. Feel better????
I guess he likes being a hangout for them local racist.
Ignore the troll. Like Freddy Krueger, he feeds off your fear and hatred… and will only go away if you refuse to acknowledge him.
I agree with Justin. Let the fascists self-disenfranchise themselves.
You are a fascist. Do not mumble dialectical nonsense you cannot understand.
But those same RW governors want federal help from Biden to try to cope with the results of their refusal to mandate mask use or vaccinations. They're intent to wasting lives & resources by banning any appropriate response to the pandemic.
Can you imagine Pearl Harbor today with 35% of Americans refusing to fight the Japanese, passing laws against resisting the invasion, refusing to allow Americans to fight back and otherwise aiding and abetting the enemy? We've definitely gone downhill.
Kind of tells me why cops are scared of traffic stops. Jeez, is everyone in Florida armed?
No kidding. I think perhaps they are.
The Atlantic had an article recently. It seems the increase in gun violence correlates to increases in gun sales. Statement of the obvious.
Cops are only scared of traffic stops in this country. In all other rich countries, where almost nobody is allowed to routinely pack guns in their cars, cops don’t fear traffic stops.
I have looked all over the Internet and haven't found an estimate for the number of Democrats and Republicans who have died of COVID since June 1 - a time when the vaccine was widely available.
There's death rates for counties, along with their Trump/Biden vote margins. There's vaccination rates for party affiliation.
Somewhere in those numbers there's got to be a way to conservatively estimate deaths based on party affiliation (including Independents).
Using death rates of 12/100k (vaccinated) and 463/100k (unvaccinated), vaccination rates 91/60/75 (D/R/I), unvaccinated rates 9/40/25 (D/R/I) I come up with Total Deaths
Democrat 29k
Republican 69k
Independent 43k
In other words, twice as many Republican deaths than Democratic - a margin of 40k.
If you assume Trump voters are vaccinated at the same rate as Republicans, and Biden voters are vaccinated at the same rate as Democrats (a big IF), you get deaths by vote cast:
Biden 42k
Trump 142k
a margin of 100k. But that's the extreme range since correlation of presidential vote and vaccination status is unlikely to be that tight. So I'd reduce the Biden/Trump voter death margin from 100k to 60k.
That leaves me with a difference in deaths somewhere between 30k and 60k. Or between 0.02% and 0.04% of the 155,000,000 presidential electorate. Not a huge amount, so maybe that's why Fox News and others can discourage vaccination without worrying about the electoral consequences.
If one picks a mid-range number of 45k "extra" deaths of GOP/Trump-voters, that comes to 214 a day (each day has ~2200 deaths) or 6k/month.
Not a huge amount, so maybe that's why Fox News and others can discourage vaccination without worrying about the electoral consequences.
Of course.
We're very far away from seeing enough disparity in blue/red covid deaths to confer a political advantage to Democrats. Also, a lot of the dying is being done in areas where Republicans overwhelmingly outnumber Democrats: MAGA Congressman So and So isn't going to lose sleep if he wins by 71.3% instead of 73.6%.
In reference to your calculations above, I would note that A) vaccines were widely available by February 2020 or so (and queues had been largely eliminated by April) and, B) the disparities will continue for a while yet—as long as the pandemic lasts (indeed, deaths have been rising for nearly eight weeks at this point, and it seems unlikely the current wave will be our last). So, who knows? Maybe if one or two states go down to the wire, this dynamic could, by that point (500,000 covid deaths from now?) have some effect.*
*Although I shudder to contemplate an ultra-tight election in 2024: if we really do see a razor close margin in favor of the president, and it's one or two GOP-controlled states that are the difference, it's hard to see how Biden could prevail in the Electoral College. Joe needs to win by a substantial margin to prevent nullification.
I know it is seemingly difficult to edit a comment, but, I am pretty sure you might be off by a year as to when vaccines were widely available.
Right. Thanks.
And more than just that typo.
No, vaccines were 100% not widely available by Feb 2020. Not even close where I am here in Los Angeles.
Myself I was 62 then and not eligible until late March and then only if I had enough of a medical condition to justify being at higher risk. My doctor said I was and I tried asap that first day . Took me two weeks and over 1000 attempts to finally manage to get an appt. And only then at a place a good drive away with a two wait sitting in the car which was very hard for me given my medical issues.
Now maybe they were more available in a poorer minority area as , at least here in CA, they were given priority and were allowed earlier ( and a lot of good white liberals in entertainment industry cheated and pretended they were from there). And more available if you were willing to simply lie and say you had a health condition or were an essential worker ( exception there too) as they had to rely on honor system. I was unwilling to lie and made sure my doctor said yes first . And even then you had to find an appt. And they were swamped.
Within a month, by late April early may , yes they were easily available and you could just walk up and get one lots of places. Which was pretty annoying to me as I had gone through hell getting an appt and getting vaccinated a few weeks before.
I wish I had just waited till late April to get vaccinated. Not only would it have been far easier, the timing would be better. Rather than get vaccinated fully by late April, when almost no covid around, it would have been mid may when delta wave was starting to creep up. And booster would have been mid November which would have been perfect re when my immunity would be strongest.
No, vaccines were 100% not widely available by Feb 2020.
Yes they were widely available. We hadn't eliminated queues, but they were widely available.
Biden isn't running in 2024.
Maga??? Word will be deader than you think soon enough. In terms of total deaths, it's irrelevant. Let's also remember Dixiecrats in the South used to have the most stringent vaccine mandates. Political shilling and dialectical illusion is all the supreme court has left. Who knows what they really believe in.
I do think just using poll numbers for the % vaccinated by party is wrong. The number of vaccinated for Republicans is too low in polls , because some vaccinated Republicans have a " tribal solidarity " reason to lie and say they are not ( and a good number just want to mess up polling ). Plus there is a response bias as the type of republican who is anti vaccine is exactly the ones least likely to respond.
For democrats, mostly in reverse. Some unvaccinated democrats will lie and say they are vaccinated because that is the " right thing " for their tribe ( just like polls always show number who say they voted much higher than actual). For response bias that works to offset for democrats I think as there too anti Vax less likely to respond.
Unlike spades. I do think there is a clear difference, just not as much as polls show.
With SCOTUS being in the control of the GQP .
My take is that this is an absolutely abhorrent decision. I also don't think it will have much impact either way.
This was going to be a heavy lift not matter what.
In order to issue a violation the employer must be the creating, controlling exposing and mitigating employer and he/she has to know the hazard exists.
For things like fall protection and toxins in the work place thats fairly straightforward. If they cannot eliminate the hazard through other means then they MUST protect the employees through respiratory protection equipment that is very varied depending on the toxin.
COVID has always been a tough one because you can have it, you can spread it without knowing. Unless you test, every day for it - BUT - even at that it doesn't do much good because ANY employee can bring it in at any time and with Omicron you COULD test negative in the morning and be positive at end of shift.
There's also the fact that this is still a relatively new threat. For other regulations OSHA and BLS have reams of documents showing that this or that is a KNOWN hazard that spans in some cases decades.
This OSHA type enforcement issue was a hope, at best.
But if you privatize COVID - make insurance companies pay for testing, pay for vaccination then the game changes. After paying out BILLIONs in costs the insurance companies would petition the government, on behalf of the companies to make it a federal mandate through Congressional action. THEN it would become (possibly) an OSHA matter. Seat belts are a prime example of this. Insurance companies were paying out large sums of money in death benefits from people slamming into steering wheels. They studied restraints and found seat belts worked very well. The petitioned NHTSB (who were also studying this) to promulgate a rule that seat belts be installed,. They held hearing, Congress was convinced it was needed and the issued the mandate that in "X" amount of time seat belts would be on all cars.. Same with air bags
That was all driven by money - profits for insurers, lobbying money for Congress and of course the threat of lawsuits against car companies that now publicly KNEW that seat belts save lives.
COVID - due to its very nature is unpredictable and people REACT to covid differently
You can't "regulate" that. I am thankful they kept the federal mandate for federal employees (including the armed forces).
Can states do it? Of course but I wonder if it would be over reach on the state's part(s) to FORCE private employers to do it. But the over riding thought here is that companies do NOT want employees out for 3 to 5 days two three or 4 times per year due to wave after wave of COVID. THAT would be disruptive to them.
I agree -- eventually insurance companies are going to start jacking up rates on clients who can't show they're doing everything they can to mitigate Covid liability, including having their employees vaccinated.
The entire US map at CovidActNow is deep red. Even in county view, it's most deep red, some red and only a few lighter colors. It's bad.
Looks like holiday artifacts have worked their way through.
Cases may actually be falling in NY and NJ now--but levels still really high and hospitalizations are, at best, plateauing. DC is there too. OH, IL, FL, MD, MA, PA(?) and maybe a few other places have cases cresting. Drops in both cases and positivity rate needed to show that cases are actually falling. Hospitalizations still going up--though rate may have slowed.
TX and CA--still going up.
Show support for your health care workers. Get vaccinated and wear a mask.
Incorrect. It's peaked. Falling cases on the East Coast. The only thing deep red is your stupidity..
Hospitalization is falling as well, lags moron. It won't be until the 2nd half of the month that shows up.
Don’t feed the troll.
I don’t even read the idiot.
Golack.
Well not quite. Idaho is grey for not having case data . Not sure what is going on there . But they still do have positivity which is high. How do you have positivity and not case numbers ?
And positive rate high enough alone to be in red so do think they deserve a red on map .
But I do think that actual infections are going down now probably most places ( by pop not area). Case numbers lag actual infections too and everything now affected by lack of testing. Testing limits probably mean reported case numbers are underestimating the increase and understating the decline. As actual infections decline, testing becomes available and then reported cases can stay near flat . Plus i am more aware now of how much school opening and closing affects numbers where they require tests . Makes a big difference here in LA.
What convinces me more are waste treatment data like from Boston where it clearly shows a peak and a massive decline. And reported case numbers not yet showing that .
Are other places testing wastewater to more certainly know what is happening? If not, why the hell not? If so, why is that not public data?
I have been bitching about the lack of any random testing program. But wastewater tests are likely just as good and easier . Such a non Brainer for that to be done in every large city.
Not sure about other states, but Washington has some occupancy rules that add up to a big push toward vaccine mandates.
If an employee is not vaccinated they have to be masked and occupancy limits are reduced and maybe tested occasionally?
It wouldn't usually be possible to fully fill an office or other dense workplace with a bunch of unvaccinated employees and you would have to know which employees are not vaccinated to comply at all and get anywhere near full occupancy.
Illinpois has stayed the rule for the moment: The Illinois Department of Labor is aware of the United States Supreme Court decision that was released on January 13, 2022 staying the Federal OSHA COVID-19 vaccination and testing emergency temporary standard. Because IL OSHA’s peremptory rule incorporates the federal standard, IL OSHA will similarly stay enforcement of its rule while it monitors federal litigation and determines next steps. Please check back at our website for updates.
I think that should the blue states enact Covid laws, the red states would react louder and stronger. This is their way. Then the Supremes would really step in.
I haven't looked at what the SCOTUS majority's reasoning for invalidating the federal vaccine mandate was, but I had assumed it would preclude state mandates as well. Is that not true?
No, that's not true: the SCOTUS decision was specifically focused on what authority OSHA has--it would be irrelevant to any state mandate.
Basically, SCOTUS held that OSHA can't use "workplace safety" to mitigate a hazard that is not related to the workplace specifically.
thanks
Yes I agree . Nothing in the ruling even hinting at anything that would preclude a state mandate .
Not to say that someone will not sue in federal courts to stop a state mandate too. I am sure they will and will come up with the best possible legal argument under the constitution that it violates the constitution.
But they cannot argue that the rule violates wherever osha type law the state has or the state constitution
That is for state court . And that will be a difficult argument. Much more difficult that just having to show that the admin was not really in compliance with the details of the federal osha law here. As vog explained above , that was a fairly easy case as they really were not and were using osha as a way to just impose a general mandate as much as they could.
Possible some state mandates might also not comply with details of the state osha type statute but federal courts have no authority there.
"In other words, twice as many Republican deaths than Democratic - a margin of 40k."
I'm not sure that the people dying in Trump counties are necessarily Republicans. The white/black/Hispanic vaccine gap is about 10%, so in a lot of rural areas it could be nonwhites who are dying as well.
But in any event, that may be why California and other blue states aren't enacting vaccines. They might not have a lot of Republican whites, but they have a ton of Hispanics, and they have a higher non-vax rate than whites. Not as many blacks, but they, too are lagging by 10%.
So a vaccine mandate would disproportionately hit blacks and Hispanics and force them out of work. Not necessarily what they'd want.
I’m curious to understand what a mandate is mandating. Is “fully vaccinated” a moving target including boosters? Who decides? Does it extend in perpetuity, or us it dependent on other factors such as disease prevalence, virulence, or seasonality? I suggest it’s important to get this right as these phenomena are likely to increase in frequency.