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Because of the extreme heat in Rome I've been waking up early and wandering around before I start to melt. On Saturday I walked over to the Colosseum, which I wasn't even planning to visit on this trip, and took pictures at around 5 am. This turned out to be well worthwhile: the sodium lights and the deep blue pre-dawn sky combined to produce some beautiful images.

The Colosseum at night is home to dozens of knots of kids doing normal kid stuff (drinking, Lime-ing, showing off, etc.). It's also probably the safest place in the city since police outnumber the kids about two to one. But no cats. This is a mystery.

July 31, 2021 — Rome, Italy

This happened to come up in a Twitter thread I was just reading, and it's worth putting it in a quick blog post. Here it is: The cost of new federal programs is almost always measured over ten years. The latest version of the infrastructure legislation, for example, is usually called a "$1.2 trillion bill," which means that it actually spends about $120 billion per year.

So why not just say that? Unfortunately, most new programs have different spending levels each year, so it's not perfectly accurate to just divide the cost by ten. Sometimes this is a function of spending keeping up with inflation each year. Sometimes it's because of assumptions about how fast a program will take root and begin to grow. And sometimes it's a deliberate choice to "backload" spending for smoke-and-mirrors reasons.

This is why news outlets are reluctant to use one-year figures: they're not 100% accurate and pedants will complain about them. However, for you and me it's sufficient to just divide by ten. This is close enough, and it's way less misleading than using the ten-year number, which is easily misunderstood.

The outrage over the end of the CDC's eviction moratorium seems odd to me. We've known it was going to expire on July 31 for a long time, so why is everyone acting so shocked that it happened on schedule? And if it's really as big a deal as some people are making out, why weren't they yelling about it in May or June rather than July 29th? Did they not care enough? Or were they ignorant of how the moratorium worked?

In any case, if the CDC is truly following the best legal advice about the Supreme Court's ruling on the moratorium, then good for them. That's what we should expect them to do.

But I do have a question for moratorium supporters: When do you think it should expire? Should it depend on some set of economic parameters? Some kind of COVID goal? Something to do with payouts of rental assistance? It can't just be left in place forever, after all. To my eyes, the economy is finally doing pretty well; jobs are returning at higher pay than before the pandemic; and CTC payments have started going out. It seems like this is not such a bad time to let it go.

Also: given the large amount of general assistance provided during the pandemic—big checks, expanded UI, and now CTC—do we even know how many people are in danger of being evicted above normal rates? I haven't seen a credible estimate, and I'd like to.

POSTSCRIPT: Please note the modifier above normal rates in my penultimate sentence. It's important!

Jane Mayer has a long piece in the New Yorker this week about The Big Lie—the belief that Democrats stole the 2020 election from Donald Trump. She focuses a lot on the influence of the Bradley Foundation—which donates millions of dollars to conservative groups that promote election fraud narratives—as well as the Heritage Foundation, Turning Point, and other right-wing organizations dedicated to the notion that election fraud is widespread.

It's a good enough piece, but not really anything new. I did my own version in 2012 and dozens of others have written similar articles over the years.

So what makes this time different? Obviously one difference is that it was a presidential election being challenged and the president in question was Donald Trump. And maybe that's all.

But it's noteworthy that over the course of 8,000 words Mayer doesn't once mention the fact that The Big Lie was was promoted relentlessly for more than two months by Fox News. The Bradley Foundation is a pipsqueak by comparison. If there's a reason that more than half of all Republicans think the race was stolen, it's twofold:

  • Fox News has spent the past two decades scaring its viewers into believing that an enormous nationwide effort to steal a presidential election is exactly the kind of thing the Democratic Party would do. They have both the predatory desire for power at all costs to motivate them and the scary Deep State means to pull it off.
  • Fox News spent all of November and December reporting with a straight face on literally every single allegation of fraud, no matter how nonsensical.

This is why I keep insisting that we pay more attention to Fox News. I know it's been around forever. I know we've never been able to make much of a dent in it. I know it's kind of boring. I know there are shinier toys around these days to distract us.

But Fox News is still the main enemy of decent government in the United States, and it will stay that way as long as its brand of fearmongering earns the Murdochs truckloads of money and the rest of the conservative movement takes its cues from them. It's hard for any right-wing meme to gain big-time nationwide exposure without support from Fox News, just as it's hard for any right-wing meme supported by Fox News to fail to catch on. They're still the 800-pound gorilla in the conservative movement.

Is Fox News really the reason we're all so angry about politics these days? You can read my case for the prosecution here, and then you can read a critique from Dan Drezner here. Dan makes some good points that others have also made, which prompts me to make two points of my own in response.

First, and most obviously, I agree that there are no monocausal explanations for things like this. In particular, I give Newt Gingrich credit for being the godfather of American outrage politics in the early '90s. However, although he may have been first, he sputtered and imploded pretty quickly. It was Fox News that picked up the ball and turned it into a relentless 24/7 money spigot starting around 2000. Similarly, social media has probably made things worse over the past few years—though by less than many people think—but the real rise of outrage politics happened between roughly 2000 and 2015. Clearly social media played no role during that period.

More generally, there were lots of things going on over the past 20 years that played a plausible role in our broken politics. I won't even try to list them all. However, I'm aware of most of them and agree about their odiousness. I just don't think they're the major actors in fomenting political rage over the past couple of decades.

This leads into my second point. Dan says that "elite polarization" far predates the year 2000, and he's right. The wellspring of modern polarization was the counterculture movement of the '60s, with its liberal emphasis on civil rights, gay rights, and feminism. The subsequent switch of Northeast liberal Republicans and Southern conservative Democrats to the opposite party played out over the '70s and '80s and produced the ideologically polarized parties we have today. Robert Bartley played an underappreciated role by turning the Wall Street Journal editorial page—with its highly influential readership—into a take-no-prisoners conservative juggernaut beginning around 1978. Finally, in the early '90s, conservative actors like Rush Limbaugh, Matt Drudge, and Newt Gingrich brought everything together in the sweep of the 1994 election by a cadre of ultra-conservative true believers. From that point on, Republican elites were fully bought into the radicalization of their party. A decade or so later Democrats began to follow suit, though with different factions playing the radicalization role.

This is all a longwinded way of saying that I agree with Dan on this point. But polarization is not what I care about. I care about explaining anger and rage—and while polarization may help that along, it's neither necessary nor sufficient.

To build up rage you need to deliberately and relentlessly feed it. That's what Fox News does, and it's never relied especially heavily on polarization. Rather, it relies on a single-minded dedication to finding and exaggerating things about liberals that are most likely to induce fear and fury in its viewership. That's the battle plan Roger Ailes put in place and that Rupert Murdoch funded: not just conservative advocacy per se, but making liberals into objects of rage. This is the machine primarily responsible for the destruction of American politics over the past couple of decades. Newt Gingrich may have created the blueprint, but it's Fox News that engineered and won the insurgency Gingrich only dreamed of.

So is there anything we can do about Fox News? I think there is, though I suspect that even hardnosed liberals may quail at its incivility. But that's a subject for another post.