So it looks like Joe Biden will be giving his State of the Union address just as Russian troops are finally entering Kyiv. And make no mistake: despite Russian military clumsiness so far, they're going to take Kyiv and there's not much we can do about it.
This puts Biden in a tough position. Will his theme be about brave Ukrainians holding out against Putin, just as Ukraine starts to fold? Will it be about how tough his sanctions are, just as they're failing to stop Putin? Will it be about the need for more weapons to arm Ukrainians, just as the war turns into an insurgency? Will it be about his promise not to use American troops, just as it becomes clear that they're the only thing that might have stopped this?
Don't get me wrong: I think Biden has steered a vigorous and clearsighted course in Ukraine. It's just that tonight is going to be a tough night to give a speech.