So it looks like Joe Biden will be giving his State of the Union address just as Russian troops are finally entering Kyiv. And make no mistake: despite Russian military clumsiness so far, they're going to take Kyiv and there's not much we can do about it.
This puts Biden in a tough position. Will his theme be about brave Ukrainians holding out against Putin, just as Ukraine starts to fold? Will it be about how tough his sanctions are, just as they're failing to stop Putin? Will it be about the need for more weapons to arm Ukrainians, just as the war turns into an insurgency? Will it be about his promise not to use American troops, just as it becomes clear that they're the only thing that might have stopped this?
Don't get me wrong: I think Biden has steered a vigorous and clearsighted course in Ukraine. It's just that tonight is going to be a tough night to give a speech.
My fellow Americans, the State of Our Union is meh. Goodnight and god bless!
Rashida Tlaib is going to give a response to the State of the Union to support “Joe Biden’s bill” I mean, good gravy no one wants to hear her response and the narcissism to think of yourself as so important. She would be the last person in Congress who I would choose to pitch this bill. This, along with the DSA declaring Ukraine is result of NATO imperialism and the US should withdraw from NATO immediately and Cullers idiot stance on Defund is going to kill the Dems
Just read the Republican response is going to be from Kim Reynolds, the governor of Iowa.
That's how far down the line they had to kick it!
Courage is grace under pressure.
~Ernest Hemingway
Biden needs to continue being an example of courage, something that was missing in the previous president and is missing from the modern GOP.
How many of the Crazy Caucus will try to get into the chamber without a mask?
How many of the Crazy Caucus will try to get into the chamber packing heat?
If any of them manage to sneak a gun in, will they actually take a shot at Biden?
They don't need to mask, CDC relaxed it's guidelines.
The mask requirement for Congress was just canceled not just by the CDC, but specifically by Congess' physician.
I am more worried about Andy Harris or Lauren Boebert trying to bring their guns.
I'm certain the President's speechwriters will be amending the address throughout the day as reports come in.
Also too: I'm certain Kevin will decry Biden's speech as being insufficiently whitebread centrist, regardless of what Biden says.
If he can tie Putin to gas prices I'd be happy, but not calling out Rus (and SA) already for OPEC+ under production makes me doubt.
Didn't you notice that the conflict is not about all oil prices? It is about something that matters.
Didn't you notice that Putin was underproducing as a chaos multiplier leading up to their attack and Faux et all have been putting all the blame on Biden?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/02/investing/opec-saudi-arabia-oil-prices/index.html
Won't be surprising if Putin slashes oil production to punish the world, but yes, letting the right put that all on Biden without noticing that other actors are doing it to intentionally divide is working amazingly so far.
"Won't be surprising if Putin slashes oil production to punish the world"
I mean, sure, in the same way that it wouldn't be surprising for Putin to set a big pile of foreign currency on fire as a way of punishing the world. Putin needs to sell Russia's oil a hell of a lot more than the rest of us need to buy it.
Which other time would you have thought preferable. During the retreat from Afghanistan? In the middle of the delta wave? During the Manchin/Sinema sabotage campaign?
The fact is: Right now is actually a good time for the speech given the Biden administration's "assignment" of crises they have had to deal with. He and the administration are coming off a brilliant performance in international diplomacy. Biden looks stronger than ever during his presidency (except maybe the initial "honeymoon" when the above mentioned sabotage was not yet in evidence).
Yes, I agree. As I say down below, Kevin has it backwards. Now is exactly the right time for Biden's speech.
Ditto, there is an article out on the web that basically asks the question, did Putin help re-set the Biden Presidency?
I will not go so far as to say that the minds of MAGA folks have been changed by the restraint President Biden has used to not send our men and women off to die fighting Russian troops, but for folks that are not die-hard Trumpists, they probably appreciate how Biden has steered the ship to get us to a point where folks are praising Biden for how he did not take Putin's bait and get us involved in another potential forever war.
Yeah, now is as good a time as any for the speech. Solid handling of the Ukraine war, mask mandates ending across the United States, heck...the environment is just right or Biden to give his speech.
Vigorous and clear-sighted would have been the full set of sanctions, announced in advance as what would result when Russia invaded Ukraine, implemented once they did so.
Instead he tried to slowly turn up the heat on a creature which has not shown any concern about subtlety.
Two days isn't really slow.
In this day and age, two days is a long time. If the Russian military were in better shape at the outset they’d like have gotten the rapid result they sought. Further, for how long was the US telegraphing Russian intentions? And we aren’t at the full set of sanctions.
It's all seemed to me to be blindingly fast and has had a blindingly fast effect.
Virtually everyone on Earth who can divest from a Russian connection has been doing so.
No, it isn't slow. And threatening sanctions that Germany hasn't agreed to would have been stupid. The West was sending some clear signals to Putin, and it's hard to imagine that anything more specific could have changed his mind.
Bingo.
No!! You don't want your opponent to have time to preempt the measures! You want to keep them guessing.
Whether the sanctions so far announced went far enough is debatable (I obviously don’t think so) but you don’t tell your opponent in advance what the consequences will be only that there will be consequences. That leaves open the possibility that the opponent will foresee something much worse and be deterred. And the opponent can’t gauge the response and decide it’s worth the price.
I think Biden’s playing his hand well and he’s done extremely well at taking advantage of Putin’s Bond villain television performances to subtly push the world towards sanctions. And by not making this USA versus Russia and demanding unconditional support for the Republican Party the way Trump would’ve done. So, in balance, I think Biden’s playing a relatively weak hand extremely well.
Great analysis of Qanon spinning Ukraine into their narrative, which 'gives people permission for their boredom to be participatory',
https://www.rawstory.com/qanon-followers-are-casting-putin-in-a-positive-light/
"I think Biden has steered a vigorous and clearsighted course in Ukraine. It's just that tonight is going to be a tough night to give a speech."
Yes. And that is the tragedy of American politics.
This is a great night to give a speech. We the people of the world need a speech from the leader of the democratic world about the long struggle of peoples to live freely, a struggle that unites people everywhere, one in which our country has played no small role. The spark of the American Revolution, the right for a people to choose its own leaders, is the same light we see burning bright in Ukraine, where an outmatched nation is now struggling to defend itself against the relic of an old autocratic empire that is at war with the idea of a people's right to be free. The democratic movement may not win every battle, but in the end we will surely prevail.
The president needs to speak with confidence and conviction about the eventual triumph of freedom, not with the fear of losing a battle. If he does, he will succeed.
...despite Russian military clumsiness so far, they're going to take Kyiv and there's not much we can do about it.
Last week, Kevin said he's no expert on Ukraine. I take him at his word. I won't pretend to know what's going to happen in Kyiv, but the Russians have yet to take Kharkiv and that's not a good sign for Mr. Putin's side. I've seen a lot of armchair warriors writing "I was wrong about ..." posts the past few days. Nobody knows anything with certainty.
Meanwhile, we're getting news like this:
* RUSSIAN MOVE ON KYIV IS STALLED, OFFICIAL SAYS
* U.S. HAS INDICATIONS THAT SOME RUSSIAN UNITS HAVE SURRENDERED WITHOUT A FIGHT, U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1498690938989858819?s=20&t=rZ1iRnJ_A8BzA5iDcFK62A
"And make no mistake: despite Russian military clumsiness so far, they're going to take Kyiv and there's not much we can do about it."
This seems likely to me, but I've actually not seen much in depth military analysis, and what I have seen has not been so definitive, so I'm curious what you're basing this on.
I HOPE Biden highlights that only one of our political parties seems capable of governing in these dangerous times.
In contrast, I think it would be a political mistake, given Russian actions in Ukraine, to double down on green energy: the sad reality, in the near term (say the next five years) green energy can not direct substitute for Russian gas for Europe. With US inflation and the rise of gas prices, the Republicans will kill Biden over energy policy.
Great players want the ball in tough, clutch situations. The best clutch hitter I ever saw was a guy named Dave Henderson. Henderson was mostly a journeyman level player, unless he came to bat in a late-inning situation where he could do some damage.
If you watched him, he loved being in that situation. He thought it was amazing and fun, regardless of what happened. And more frequently than his record would predict, he did something valuable - hit, rbi, sac fly, something good.
Great players want the ball in clutch situations. I think Biden might be one of those guys, but that isn't super clear yet.
RIP DONNIE MOORE
The big convoy that was supposed to overwhelm Kyiv is stalled about 20 miles from the city, not moving. I think Biden will be fine.
I don't doubt that Russia can eventually bludgeon the Ukrainian military into yielding the capital. But man, they are stepping all over their own feet right now. And every day they stumble is a day that Ukraine bolsters their defenses, and Russia's economy tanks, and Western arms and money flood into Ukraine.
By the time Russia finally wins the "militaries clashing on the battlefield" part of the war, there will be a well-armed, well-financed, highly motivated insurgency waiting to bleed them dry. You can make comparisons to Chechnya if you like, but keep in mind that Russia's first attempt to reconquer Chechnya ended in abject failure. And Ukraine has 30 times the population and far more international support than the Chechens ever did.
Yes, there is news that the convoy moving towards Kiev has stalled. Reports of shortages of gas and food. I'm not knowledgeable about military stuff, but do know that re-supply lines are crucial in an invasion.
https://twitter.com/nprworld/status/1498738105695674369
US intelligence has been correct right along, so I don't see any reason to doubt this report.
It sounds like Putin is as incompetent as Trump, but without the ability to persuade people otherwise. Unless you count the KGB as a means of persuasion.
I'm wondering if every Russian commander with any capability was careful to absent himself from this campaign, leaving only the real wingnuts and not-so-capable in charge.
Is Putin directing it personally?
"And make no mistake: despite Russian military clumsiness so far, they're going to take Kyiv and there's not much we can do about it."
I'm not convinced. History (I'm thinking of places with names like Leningrad and Stalingrad) shows us that major cities are very difficult to take if vigorously defended. Blitzkrieg works fine in open country, and advances may be measured in tens of miles per day. You can't blitz a major city; the rate of advance in an urban offensive is measured in blocks per day, and casualties per yard. The Ukrainians are apparently prepared to defend Kyiv street by street and room by room. Given sufficient determination, they can create a meatgrinder that will chew up the entire Russian Army.