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Oh ffs:

Transgender Floridians can no longer change the listed gender on their driver licenses.

...."Permitting an individual to alter his or her license to reflect an internal sense of gender role or identity, which is neither immutable nor objectively verifiable, undermines the purpose of an identification record and can frustrate the state’s ability to enforce its laws," wrote Robert Kynoch, the department's deputy executive director, in the memo.

There are gray areas in transgender policy that are legitimately hard to settle. Most of them have to do with minors, who are edge cases in lots of policy areas.

But there's no excuse for harassing adult trans people like this. It's just performative cruelty with no serious state interest involved.

Everyone involved in this should be ashamed of themselves, and that includes the entire Republican caucus in the state legislature, which has been pushing a bill to make this state law. Their goal isn't to protect kids or anything like that. It's to come as close as they can to outright criminalizing being trans.

Atrios says this about Joe Biden's efforts to pass immigration legislation:

If you concede the issues that the other side have made their own are important, you have conceded that the other side is, in fact, correct, and that what they say is important is, in fact, important.

Immigration is especially fraught as there is no "solution" that will make the people who are mad about it stop being mad, or making the people who are screeching about it stop screeching about it. There is no rationality to anti-immigration rage, no wonky policy solution to address the discontent.

This is all true. At the same time, isn't it true about nearly everything? And true of our side as well? No plausible compromise will stop us from screeching about climate change, abortion, taxing the rich, universal health care, or a bunch of other issues we liberals feel strongly about.

Atrios is pleading for Biden to be more consistently liberal, but this is also a counsel of despair. Literally nothing will ever happen if both sides simply refuse to pass anything because they know the other side will never be satisfied.

It's true that the other side will never be satisfied! But that's just the nature of politics. You have to keep soldiering on regardless.

Immigration hawks say that Joe Biden has cut back on deportations. Biden partisans say he's been tougher on deportation than anyone in recent history. Who's right?

Both! Here are the stats:

In his first three years, Trump deported 408,000 migrants. Biden deported only 385,000.

But—in FY23 Biden deported 236,000 migrants, the highest total ever and far more than Trump ever deported in a single year.

On the other hand, Trump holds the record for deportations in a single month, at 29,204. Biden's highest month was last August, at 24,019.

On yet another hand, Biden is on track to beat Trump's single-term record, 633,000 to 572,000.

Bottom line: You can say anything you want and there's some statistic or another that will back you up. Probably the most honest thing you can say is that deportations are limited mostly by court capacity and don't have much to do with either Trump or Biden. But that's no fun.

Charles Littlejohn was sentenced today to five years in prison for stealing the tax returns of Donald Trump and thousands of other rich people. But Trump himself has been silent about this. Why isn't he crowing?

That's easy. Littlejohn didn't work for the IRS. He was a Booz Allen Hamilton contractor. He was caught by Joe Biden's Treasury Department; prosecuted by Joe Biden's Justice Department; and given the maximum sentence from a judge appointed by Joe Biden. This doesn't fit well with Trump's insistence that he's being persecuted solely as a Biden revenge op.

Which isn't to say that some of Trump's allies aren't trying. They're complaining that Littlejohn should have been charged more harshly. Or that he probably had a partner who's being protected. Or that Booz Allen Hamilton is a known den of Democratic sympathy and never should have received an IRS contract. But that's just noise. Trump himself knows better than to acknowledge something helpful that came out of the Biden administration.

Well, this is weird:

The folks at Nine News in Melbourne say that Photoshop AI just did this on its own volition—which is, needless to say, not even possible. But that's their story and they're (so far) sticking to it.

Welcome to the brave new world of generative AI. It can produce phone calls allegedly from Joe Biden. It can create photorealistic nude pictures of Taylor Swift. And now it's an all-purpose excuse when you get caught doing something idiotic.

A few days ago I came across this tweet from Matt Yglesias during a stretch of bad weather that was tying up air travel:

This has been followed by a bunch of edgelord conservative types complaining that DEI initiatives are making it unsafe to fly. Is this just an offshoot of the recent right-wing kvetching about DEI in general?

No! By an odd quirk I happened to get sucked down a rabbit hole today, and among other things learned that Black air traffic controllers have been an obsession on the right for more than a decade. Here's the story, as briefly as I can possibly tell it.

The FAA hires air traffic controllers from a variety of sources: veterans, retired military controllers, the general public, and—notably—something called the College Training Initiative (CTI). Since 2002, both CTI grads and the general public have been required to take the Air Traffic Selection and Training test (AT-SAT) when they apply to the federal air traffic academy.

You will be unsurprised to learn that the air traffic community has long been almost all white and all male. The FAA has studied this off and on for years, and in 2013 published a "barrier analysis" report that came to a few conclusions. First, nearly all CTI grads were white. Second, something was wrong with the AT-SAT test. When it was given to actual air traffic controllers, a whole bunch of them failed. The test was reworked to fix that, but the result, contrary to expectations, was that close to 100% of everyone now passed. So the FAA increased the passing standard, and the result of that was significant bias in favor of white applicants.

Third, there were particular features of the AT-SAT that seemed to favor white applicants more than others. In particular, white applicants did better on some of the cognitive tests but Black applicants generally did better on parts of the test that measured personality traits (composure, work behavior, concentration, decisiveness, etc.). This portion of the test was confusingly called the Experience Questionnaire.

Long story short, in 2014 the FAA gutted the CTI program and created a longer version of the Experience Questionnaire called the Biographical Assessment. This was also confusingly named, since it was designed to test things like decisionmaking, handling pressure, teamwork, efficiency, and so forth. In any case, applicants were now required to take the BA first, and only if they passed did they move on to the AT-SAT.¹

And there was one other thing. Before all this, CTI students had been allowed to take the AT-SAT while they were in school. Now those scores were tossed out. They had to retake it under the new rules, and some of them washed out on the BA. They were understandably infuriated and filed a class-action lawsuit against the FAA. Here's how this is typically described on the right:

Candidates who had trained for years and who had scored high on aptitude tests were dropped from consideration, in favor of lesser-trained people who fit the right biographical profile.

....The FAA’s new hiring regime abandoned the CTI program as a basis for hiring new controllers, and instead based hiring on a “biographical questionnaire” designed to screen out candidates who weren’t members of a preferred minority racial group.

The lawsuit is ongoing, with briefings scheduled throughout 2024. There's no telling how long it will be until a trial is actually held.

In 2016 President Obama signed a bill that discontinued the Biographical Assessment and allowed anyone who had failed it to reapply. In 2020, as part of that year's defense bill, Congress passed the bipartisan ATC Reform Act, which reinstated the preference given to CTI grads.

There are lots of other little details here and there, including a weird quasi-cheating scandal, but they're mostly of minor interest. The nickel summary is that (a) the FAA has never included race in a "biographical questionnaire," but (b) they have changed their testing to emphasize traits that show less bias in favor of white applicants. It remains a matter of controversy which version of the test is better at predicting success as an air traffic controller.

However, this is all moot since the 2014 changes have now all been reversed. What's more, by far the biggest concern at the moment is general understaffing of air traffic controllers. There's currently bipartisan agreement that the FAA just needs to figure out a way to hire more controllers regardless of race or gender.

So that's the story. The idea that Black hiring is making the skies unsafe has been rattling around on the right for years, and the recent discourse about DEI and affirmative action in universities and corporations has just given it an opportunity to pop into mainstream consciousness. It's not brand new racism, just the usual old kind.

¹In the end, the result was a small uptick in the hiring of Black air traffic controllers. Maybe a few percentage points or so.

Did you know that 23,000 shipping containers have been lost at sea since 2008? That's about 1,500 per year. In 2020 there was a huge spike to 4,000 containers, which prompted the World Shipping Council to start a safety campaign. In 2022 a mere 661 containers were lost:

The WSC would like you to know that the 2022 total amounts to only 0.00048% of the 250 million containers shipped that year—or possibly even less if you do the arithmetic correctly.¹ Also, the leading cause of lost containers is parametric rolling in following seas. And the WSC is committed to improving container safety.

I wonder what was in all those containers now bobbing around in the ocean?

¹My trusty Windows calculator returns 0.00026%.

Everyone's campaign strategy against Donald Trump appears to have converged on the same tactic: trolling. It's all about deliberately hurling insults at him in the hope that he'll melt down completely and eventually lose the plot.

Neither Nikki Haley nor Joe Biden are even trying to hide this. They're all but daring Trump to maintain his composure, confident that he can't do it even when he knows he's being baited.

Do you think it will work? I do.