Month: May 2024

These are the arches that hold up the flying buttresses at the Regensburg cathedral. It's about 700 years old.

Last week the US Trade Representative published a 4-year review of the tariffs levied on China by Donald Trump and continued by Joe Biden. There are a few things of note. First of all, imports from China that were subject to tariffs did indeed fall:

As you can see, import of products from China that were subject to tariffs dropped by 30-40%, while products not subject to tariffs increased about 20%. Much of the drop in Chinese imports was made up via imports from other countries, leading to an increase of 40% in imports from elsewhere in the world.

Second, tariffs increased the average US price for the affected products:

Other effects noted in the report:

• Neither employment nor wages in US manufacturing increased, probably because most of the drop in Chinese imports was made up by increased imports from Taiwan, South Korea, and other countries.
• Tariffs pushed China to steal or forcibly transfer US technology slightly less than before, but only slightly.
• US companies are increasingly moving production out of China.
• The impact of tariffs on China's economy is fuzzy, but probably on the order of ½-1% of GDP.
• Chinese suppliers did not reduce prices in response to tariffs. The full cost of the tariffs was borne by US consumers.

So that's that. Tariffs increased some prices in the US but didn't increase manufacturing and probably had only a modest effect on China's economy. This shouldn't come as a surprise. As big as China is, imports from China still make up only about 1% of US GDP. The effect of the China tariffs is sizeable in a few very specific industries and geographic areas, but that's about all.

Donald Trump will not be testifying at his trial. That makes me sad.

A recent study has taken a broad look at the effect of internet use on personal well-being. It finds that, generally, both internet access and use make people happier and better off on a wide variety of social metrics.

My first thought was, "Duh, richer people have better internet access and richer people are also happier. Big deal." However, as in most cases when something obvious occurs to you, it's a good bet that the researchers who spent months on their study also thought of it. And they did. In fact, they took into account income, education, and several other possible confounders. They ended up with six possible confounders, and therefore 64 separate model specifications depending on which ones they turned on and off.

Are you with me so far? Here's a close-up of one particular comparison. This is for (a) females asked about (b) life satisfaction compared to (c) internet access.

What you see is a bunch of squiggly lines, one for each age band. The lines are made up of points that show the correlations for each of the 64 possible model specifications:

The important thing to notice here is that the line is always above zero. For this particular test, internet access has a positive outcome for every age group no matter what model specification is used. The more stuff you control for, the smaller the effect, but it's always well above zero.

So now you're ready for the whole result. Buckle your seat belts:

This shows results for men and women, across eight different measures of well-being, and for three different measures of internet access.

Generally speaking, the results are positive for everything. The main exception is the measure of negative experiences, which we want to be below zero. The only other exceptions are for young people, especially women, on a measure of community well-being vs. actual internet use over the previous week. There are a few other lines that just touch zero—i.e., the effect of internet access is neutral—but that's it.

Now, these measures of well-being are taken from a Gallup poll, so they aren't especially well-studied or validated. Nonetheless, they're worth something, and the study examines more than 2 million people across 168 countries. I would be interested in a follow-up that zooms in on just rich countries and, in particular, on just the US.

POSTSCRIPT: For what it's worth, this is a more sophisticated version of the crude comparison I made a couple of months ago using the World Happiness Report. My results were similar: I found that at a country level, internet penetration is positively associated with happiness.

As you know, after 9/11 airlines were required to install hardened cockpit doors. But what if the door is open so the flight crew can get dinner or take a pee? Terrorists could then storm the cockpit.

The answer is a secondary barrier, and now, two decades later, new legislation finally requires this. Better late than never, amirite? But in the New York Post article about this, I was more interested in a follow-up comment:

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) said it’s still not enough. “It’s an important measure in preventing hijacks, but we also need more stringent regulations when issuing government IDs and to stop illegal immigrants from boarding airplanes with [arrest] warrants as their sole identification, as the TSA has admitted is occurring,” said Malliotakis.

Surprisingly, it turns out this isn't just made up. But it's also not entirely right.

Non-citizens—legal or otherwise—often don't have driver's licenses or similar forms of ID, so TSA will accept other documents from them. Among other things, it accepts documents from Homeland Security if they can be validated. They are then cross-checked against the government's terrorist screening database. Amusingly, one of the acceptable DHS documents is an arrest warrant.

At first glance this seems a little crazy, but as TSA explains, they're in the business of stopping terrorists, not checking citizenship status. As long as they don't have reason to believe you're going to blow up the plane, the rest of your life is not their concern. A moment's thought suggests this makes perfect sense: do we really want to start adding other kinds of checks to TSA's remit? Felons? Child molesters? Gaza protesters? Communist sympathizers?

Nonetheless, it turns out that Republicans have been squawking about this for years. Not just for arrest warrants, but for any DHS document. They apparently think that non-citizens with DHS documents shouldn't be allowed to fly on airplanes, full stop. I'm not sure why.

The Wall Street Journal reports that CEO pay increased 9% last year, but as usual they ignore inflation. It remains one of the world's great mysteries why they do this, so as a public service here's their featured chart adjusted for inflation:

During the halcyon days between the Great Recession and the Plague Years, CEO pay increased nearly 8% annually in real terms. Since 2020, CEO pay has increased 0.5% per year. In 2023 CEO pay increased 4%.

This is from Yoav Gallant, who has been insistent that Gaza should eventually be turned over to Palestinian control:

This is not specifically in conflict with Gallant's public views. He wants eventual Palestinian control of Gaza, but not necessarily PA control. Nor has he ever suggested he favors a Palestinian state.

In one sense, this is a big "meh." Only a true Pollyanna could believe anything different. Still, it's always nice to get confirmation in blunt statements captured on tape. Israel has no intention of ever allowing a Palestinian state, full stop. After October 7, and with the Israeli electorate trending more conservative every year, I have no idea what kind of pressure could ever change their minds.

POSTSCRIPT: I haven't seen this leaked audio reported in any mainstream outlet, so maybe take it with a grain of salt? Still, even in this brave new world of AI deepfakes, I assume that audio like this (and the English translation) isn't invented out of whole cloth. Right?

I see that Donald Trump's Truth Social reported financial results today for the first quarter of the year. Total revenue clocked in at $770,000 (yes, thousand):

Results were announced after the market closed, and in after-hours trading no one seems to care. The stock price is still hovering around $49, about where it ended the day.

TMTG (the official name of Trump's company) also announced operating losses of $12.1 million, up from $9.2 million last quarter.

Naturally the company said it was focused on long-term development, not pesky quarterly results because—well, what choice do they have? Their quarterly results are terrible.

They also announced that soon they'll start streaming live TV to the Truth Social app. Sounds like a blast.

This is the Jesuit Church in Vienna. It's a fine example of Baroque architecture, but that's not why I visited. I was attracted by the remarkable—and photogenic—use of color inside. The fake marble comes in hues of green, rose, and yellow, set off by gold leaf everywhere. It's not really what I would associate with Jesuits, but I suppose Jesuit taste comes in all varieties.

In the Washington Post today, Nick Mourtoupalas writes about something that hasn't gotten much attention: Joe Biden has appointed more non-white judges than any president in history. But to really see how dramatic Biden's tenure has been, you need to look at his annual appointment rate:

Biden is appointing non-white judges at more than twice the rate of Barack Obama and three times the rate of Bill Clinton.

And 63% of Biden's judges have been women. That's half again as many as Obama, who's in second place.

Put it together, and only 13% of Biden's judges have been white men. This is almost certainly not just a record, but a massive, over-the-top record.

It's also another example of something Biden has done that he can't really brag about too much because it would probably piss off lots of centrist white voters. Nonetheless, he's done it. It's easy to talk the talk, but Biden has walked the walk.