Month: July 2024

This is the zeppelin field in Nuremburg, where Adolf Hitler conducted his big rallies. Below it is a picture of what it looked like in 1938.

Here are the UN reports on Gaza's food situation for two months ago compared to today:

Apparently the situation has improved. In May OCHA reported that 1.1 million Gazans were projected to face the worst level of famine. Today it's 495,000. Likewise, the number facing Level 4 famine is down by 100,000.

Virtually all of Gaza is "projected" to "face" food insecurity of some level—the same as in May and previously. However, it's unclear exactly what that means. Presumably it means Gazans aren't starving right now but might in the future. I think.

*It's remarkable how fast Republicans have pivoted from Biden is decrepit and brain dead to Biden was ousted in a coup by anti-democratic elites! I mean, I would have figured it would take at least a few days.

But no. No matter how cynical you get, Republicans can keep surprising you.

Here is the employment rate for Black men and women during (a) 2019 and (b) the past 12 months:

For both men and women, employment has been higher over the past year than it was during the final pre-COVID year of Donald Trump's presidency.

Here's some good news:

After three weeks of radiation and a couple of months of hormone therapy my PSA level has dropped to 3.2. This is almost normal and indicates that my prostate cancer is on the run.

My testosterone level has dropped from 375 to 9, which is very, very low—even lower than the normal response to Lupron. I suppose that's good? The lower the better, since testosterone is a food source for prostate cancer. Obviously I'm not going to be starring on The Bachelor anytime soon.

After seemingly endless speculation around weird mini-primaries and town halls moderated by Oprah, it took Kamala Harris a grand total of 24 hours to lock up virtually every important endorsement, a majority of Democratic delegates, and somewhere around $100 million in new donations. She has no competitors and is now the presumptive nominee.

This reminds me of 2020, when various marginal candidates won the first few Dem primaries and then Joe Biden won South Carolina. Within 24 hours all the chatter stopped and it suddenly became clear that everyone had wanted Biden all along. He sailed to victory after that. It's funny how reality intrudes on fantasy with such regularity.

Liberal myths

.
Myth: "Crisis" talk is just conservative scaremongering.
Reality: Illegal immigration has skyrocketed under Joe Biden. Both Obama and Trump averaged about 35,000 migrants per month. Biden has averaged nearly 200,000 per month.

Myth: There is broad support for liberal immigration laws.
Reality: This used to true, but not anymore. In Gallup polls, support for increased immigration rose steadily for many years, reaching 34% in 2020. Since then it has plummeted. Support for increased immigration is currently at 16% compared to 55% who want it decreased. 86% think illegal immigration is a serious problem. Support for building the wall has risen above 50%.

Conservative myths

.
Myth: We are currently in the middle of a migrant crime wave.
Reality: There's no evidence for this. Crime has declined substantially over the past few years, and multiple studies have found that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native borns.

Myth: Central American countries are emptying their prisons and mental institutions and sending their inmates to the US.
Reality. This is flatly made up. There is no evidence this is happening.

Myth: Illegal immigrants are taking jobs away from Americans who need them.
Reality: The employment rate of native borns remains near pre-pandemic highs. Generally speaking, illegal immigration rises when there are labor shortages in low-wage jobs that Americans don't want. These are typically jobs that require no English and can be paid under the table. Natives and legal immigrants work almost exclusively in conventional jobs that require English skills.

Myth: Illegal immigrants don't pay taxes and will eventually bankrupt Social Security.
Reality: Illegal immigrants pay sales taxes, property taxes (via rent), and even some income taxes and payroll taxes. However, they are not generally eligible to receive Social Security, so they make the program stronger, not weaker. Likewise, they are ineligible for most welfare benefits. They are eligible for schooling and emergency medical care, but the taxes they pay makes this roughly a wash. Overall, illegal immigration is a (small) net positive for the US economy.

wtf?

Mountain Dew has been a Pepsi product 60 years, long before J.D. Vance was born. What the hell is he talking about?

I dunno. These guys can't help themselves. Then again, maybe this was a shoutout to an old ad campaign that was widely viewed as racist. It was about a goat who loved Mountain Dew, but the punch line involved a woman who was asked to pick the goat out of a lineup where everyone else was a Black man.

If that's that case, then congrats to Vance for being woke! If it's anything else, then congrats to Vance for being an asshole.

Moonrise over the Mojave Desert. This picture was taken about ten minutes after sunset, which is what makes the moon so bright and ruddy.

At dinner last night the subject of fast food prices came up. We all agreed that prices seem to have skyrocketed recently, which I said was kind of mysterious. After all, the federal government tracks fast food prices, just like they track everything else, and the numbers are easy to find. Here they are:

Since 2021, fast food is up 23%, which is a little more than general inflation but only by a few percentage points. That's about six points more than average wage growth.

Maybe prices have gone up more in Southern California, where we happen to live? The BLS doesn't track fast food specifically for LA and Orange Counties, but they do track eating out in general. It turns out that Southern California's overall restaurant inflation is slightly less than the national average, so its fast food inflation probably is too.

So it's weird. I too feel like some of the common fast food items I eat are substantially higher priced than they were a few years ago. As in 50% higher or even more. And yet BLS statistics say I'm wrong. What's going on?