As an experienced political pundit I'd like to share my insights into the upcoming presidential election. Here's what the bulk of the evidence tells us: maybe Joe Biden will win. Or maybe it will be Donald Trump. Either one of them could win! Or maybe even someone else, though that's unlikely. It's all going to depend on what happens over the next 18 months.
You may now safely ignore most campaign news for the next year or so. Just be sure to use your newfound expertise for good, not evil.
Thank you. Much appreciated.
Google paid 99 dollars an hour on the internet. Everything I did was basic Οnline w0rk from comfort at hΟme for 5-7 hours per day that I g0t from this office I f0und over the web and they paid me 100 dollars each hour. For more details
visit this article... https://earnwork8.blogspot.com
My prediction is that some election predictions will be right and some will be wrong.
Kevin
I think your "deep dive" was in the shallow end of the pool
It's gonna be Biden and Trump and trump will lose, again
Short and sweet. As in Biden wins. Period.
And I will never believe anything that “the polls” have to say ahead of time. I can’t understand how those people are still in business…
Why? Polling has mostly been pretty good over the last several cycles. The supposed big "exception" was 2016, and that was almost entirely a failure of journalistic interpretation of what the polling was telling us
Yes. Polls said HRC would win by a couple of points, which she did. The issue in our system is that the electoral college sometimes turns the participation trophy into the real trophy and polls have trouble predicting that.
Kind of the opposite. Polls do predict the participation trophy (i.e. the popular vote) but not the actual election. But, I get what you're saying. These polls and news sites that predict % of winning for either candidate need to be more sophisticated and look at aggregate polling for each state and then tally the likely electoral votes. Just looking at the national popular vote is keeping score to a game no one playing.
Yes. Polls said HRC would win by a couple of points, which she did.
Right. And moreover that was within the margin of error AND (critically) the pollsters themselves knew that polling can't adequately pick up very late shifts in voter sentiment.
Quoting from memory, but I think most of the polls had Trump a 30% or so underdog. And most people, guided by most pundits, thought that meant Trump was toast. But 30% is a pretty large number!
Are pollsters not aware that the Presidential election is decided by the electoral college? Predicting the electoral college result is trickier that the popular vote - a few states with narrow margins have decided things more than once - but it is their job to do that prediction, not the popular vote. The correct prognosis in some recent cases would probably have been that they didn't know who would win - correct statistics might have led to that - but they feel that they have to come down on one side or the other.
For anyone who actually read what 538 wrote, they pretty much nailed 2016. First, they gave Trump a final chance of about 30%, which is significant. Second, they correctly described the "blue wall" not as a series of independent barriers, but more as a single correlated barrier. Within that 30% chance of Trump winning, they we were bang on about the most likely way he would if he did. Pretty much by 9 PM Eastern time, you could see that the 538 scenario of a narrow Trump win was playing out exactly as they said it could.
Now, the fact that the rest of the media saw 30% as essentially zero, and really thought the blue wall was this series of hurdles that each had to be overcome, that's their problem. But some of the statistical coverage was spot on.
+1
There is a significant chance that one or both of Trump and Biden will die before the election - which will massively muddy the water
I've been hoping against all odds that all those cheeseburgers finally catch up to Trump and he has small a stroke resulting in mild aphasia.
". . . resulting in mild aphasia."
How would you tell?
'😂😂😂😂
He will start to spit true statements?
It could end up as Kamala Harris v whoever Trump picks as his new VP stooge. Truly muddy waters.
The chance of an 80-y.o. man dying over the next 1.5 years is about 8.4%, or 1 in 12.
If you assume that's roughly true for Biden and Trump, the chance of either dying is under 17%, about 1 in 6, and for both dying, under 0.3%.
Of course, neither is the average 80-y.o. (Trump is a babe of 76, but less healthy to my eye.) Neither has a life-threatening disease (afaik). Both have access to top medical care. Each had both parents live to 85+, inc. one parent to 90+.
The chance of either dying in office is, of course, greater. More likely, still, is a health problem that could affect their ability to do the work of presidenting.
Another way to look at it.
The last president to die in office died a month after the Dodgers won the World Series (1963).
The last ex-president to die died a month after the Dodgers lost the World Series (2018).
A lot is riding on what the Dodgers do in the World Series.
Yes, but what about the SF Giants???
It's probably more likely than any other election in history but not sure I'd call it it a "significant chance". I'd say maybe it's significant if you're talking about the winner dying before he finishes his term, but not necessarily before the election.
Guessing Joe dumps Kamala
No.
Not happening.
Next to zero chance.
But no matter how it turns out, it will be the fault/doing of the Federal Reserve, or foreign interference, or some other, single reason…
Well, the economy is very often the decider. The President himself does not control the economy, contrary to common belief, although the past actions of his party have a great deal to do with it. The Fed, whose directors are not elected, does have a great deal to do with the economy, and its decisions probably have had effects in certain past elections.
I don't think the Republican establishment, whatever that is, will allow Trump to be nominated. Maybe I'm wrong because I have not been following the news much lately, but... there's no way. He'll damage the brand, he's not that popular, they just have to find someone less unctuous than DeSantis. Really, just anybody.
The GOP has made no moves to change its nomination process; which doesn’t offer much maneuvering space for ‘the establishment’, and I think it’s getting late for any significant changes. Trump has a considerable lead over DeSantis, and no other candidate shows much vote-getting potential. That means Trump can win the nomination again with just the votes of his cult in primaries and caucuses.
Wow. So hard to imagine. Feels like his core support must be down to 10% of electorate, 20% of R’s, max. I know primary voters are the most motivated (loons) and more extreme, but… don’t even they wanna win? And aren’t a lot of former Trump voters kind of bored with the guy? I feel like a lot of people supported him kind of on a goof, just trolling the libs. Just feels like his time is long past, like a joke that was barely funny 8 years ago, now? Way past embarrassing.
I believe what you said, but, I just can’t imagine it… And if he is nominated, it’s gotta be good for Dem chances.
What about the R equivalent of Buttigieg, someone seemingly a little outta left (right) field. Anyone’s gotta be better. Guess I’m naive.
They (TFG cult) do want to win, and a whole bunch of them think he actually did win in 2020, but the evil Dems switched millions of his votes to Biden, and threw in millions of votes from ‘illegals’ and dead people, and stole the election.
Ok, I’ll admit it. I am very curious to know what was in those redacted Tucker Carlson messages that caused Fox to settle and then fire him:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/business/media/tucker-carlson-dominion-fox-news.html
I would not be surprised if someone leaks them. Also, can't Smartmatic subpoena both the texts and Carlson himself? I think he's a lot more dangerous to FOX now that he's been fired by them.
You guys remember when Obama wore that tan suit?? Scandalous!
TFG had the advantage of incumbency in 2020, and lost the popular vote by 7 million to Biden. If it’s Biden v TFG, Biden now has the incumbent advantage. Plus, TFG killed off some of his cult thanks to his chaotic Covid policy. Some more of them will have died of other, natural causes. The only thing in TFG’s favor is that lots of Americans seem to be in a shitty mood, and that leads to a ‘throw the bums out’ election. That factor would also favor any GOP candidate.
If we avoid recession or if the recession is mild but we're palpably in a strong recovery by next summer, Biden should be a fairly strong favorite, partly for the reasons you cite.
I really do fear even a standard-issue recession—one that's not particularly severe but is nonetheless lingering into the second half of next year (similar to, say, 1970, or 1990) —gives Republicans the advantage. The last three times an incumbent president tried to win a second term during year in which there was a contraction—1932, 1980, 2020 — the president in question lost.
The "structural" factors surely aren't quite as determinative as was the case once upon a time in US presidential politics. Extreme polarization has seen to that: the vast majority of voters won't abandon their preferred party no matter what. But it's likely the case that 10-15% of the electorate is still up for grabs. But sure, Donald Trump is sui generis, and also, it's hard to imagine abortion politics will vanish any time soon.
The robots are talking to one another on the other thread.
Is this how they become self-aware, by realizing other robots exist?
Trump will win the R nomination but has no chance in the general. However the nightmare scenario is it’s Trump v. Biden and Biden has a stroke or something similar.
At this very moment I predict it’s the election that finally forces the Rs to reassess their lizard brain approach. Meaning, Texas goes D and Rs get 35% of the vote. But who knows.
Trump will win the R nomination but has no chance in the general.
No chance in the general?
Where do people come up with this shit? Four of the last six elections have been objectively close by historical standards—five of the last six if you count 2012, which I would (two party vote went 52-48 Obama). And Republicans appear to enjoy a substantial advantage in the Electoral College. So a Democrat needs, like, 52% of the two-party vote at this point.
I don't care how much you hate Republicans. The guy with an "R" next to his name on the ballot—yes, even Donald Trump—has a shot in the general election simply because he has an "R" next to his name, which appears to guarantee a floor of around 46% of the two party vote, which automatically puts him within 3 points of an EC majority (Republicans probably need only 49% of the two party vote to win it all).
Sure, sure, all the usual caveats apply: I don't have a crystal ball. Maybe things will have changed radically by the fall of 2024. Maybe Dobbs was the straw that broke the GOP's camel in terms of the Electoral College. Maybe! Anything's possible. But at least based on what we know, it's simply not tenable to write off either major party candidate as having no shot. Such is the inevitable, mechanical effect of the intersection of our highly polarized politics and the Electoral College.
This. Very much this.
Which is why when I see the Left try to game out who they would like to win the R nomination bring in the second order musings about who might be most "beatable", it drives me crazy. (See recent musings by Jonathan Chait on DeSantis vs. Trump, which dwells almost entirely on who might be most vulnerable in the general.)
I go with the above philosophy of if they have an R by their name, they start at a floor of a 20% chance to win. That's just too darned high to want anyone other than the least batshit crazy of them to win the nomination.
Haley this time? (Not that I think she has a chance in hell of winning the nomination.) But both Trump and DeSantis are nightmares in their own way.
when I see the Left try to game out who they would like to win the R nomination bring in the second order musings about who might be most "beatable", it drives me crazy
Same here. It's possible Trump would be a weaker general election candidate. Possible! But it's hard to say. And in any event I want no part of his having the launch codes again.
Here’s where I come up with this shit: Trump has lost the popular vote twice, with the margin increasing considerably the second time. And that was before the attack on the Capitol, and the improper concealment of documents. I have stated my position, that it is marginal voters who determine elections, i.e. those who don’t vote in every election. Many in that group tell pollsters they want the parties to work together; they don’t like the partisan acrimony. It’s clear by now which party and which candidate are most divisive.
Neither party is ‘guaranteed’ the long-term-average vote share, because in addition to the base (those who always vote, and vote party), they have to motivate the marginal voters, who will vote party but may or may not vote at all.
Actual swing voters are about as common as snail darters.
I like it. Plus demographics. A lot of R voters are dying of old age or covid...
Here’s where I come up with this shit:
You lay out reasons why you think Trump wouldn't win the general election, or wouldn't be favored. Fair. But the comment I was responding to opined Trump has "no chance" of winning the general election.
That's just pure nutsville. Believe me, the political landscape is going to look very scary for Democrats if ten months from now we're clearly in a recession and unemployment is swiftly increasing.
Have to agree. Lots of Americans in a foul mood despite low unemployment, (slowly) declining inflation, almost no military casualties. What will they be like if the economy turns down?
This Public Service Announcement has been paid for out of the goodness of Kevin's heart.
This morning, I think Pence is going to win the nomination.
Pence will be the redeemer for the Republican fall from grace. Jan. 6, classified docs., rape, election tampering. . .and the crass talk of Tucker and the latest security leaker. . .
Pence did escape hanging, remember. And he seemingly incapable of sexcapades.
tomorrow's new may leave a different flavor.
Isn't it too early to discount Herman Caine, Fred Thompson, the Starbucks guy, Poirot, Pauls I and II, Nader, Pat Buchannon, Rubio, Cruz and the myriad of touted front runners who have flashed across the media skies? Sure, some of them may be dead, but like bad economic theories, the fear lives on.
Um, yeah, no it's not too early to dismiss them.
The only fun speculation at this point is trying to figure out who will be Trump's VP pick.
Who will be willing to do whatever Trump wants, while also being willing to hide in Trump's shadow?
But also, know that Trump is going to either berate him or do something morally repugnant.
I think the current speaker of the house, what's his name, Kevin McCarthy is showing .that he has all of those qualities.
Tucker. And yes, Tucker purportedly hates him. But Trump curiously doesn't seem to care about that sorta thing. I think his ego gets off on sworn enemies of his kissing his ring. Plus, he'll do what he thinks maximizes chances of winning.
That rules out EmptyG.
I’ve heard speculation that it could be Robert Kennedy Jr. That would be weird, but his followers seem to have a Kennedy fixation.
Kirsten Sinema.
Since the point here is that deep dives aren't worth much, I'll cut to the chase.
The winner of the 2024 presidential election will likely be Joe Biden. I give him a slightly better than 2 in 3 chance. Expect his pop vote percentage to be in the low to mid 50s. The EC vote will be close in a few states but Biden will get about 55% to 60% of the total. Networks will call the race on Election Night or the next morning.
That's my guess and I would take exception to one point above:
"It's all going to depend on what happens over the next 18 months."
I don't think what happens will have a big effect on the race. But if it does and things go kerflooey, that falls into the 1 in 3 scenario.
One thing that will happen is that "experts" will weigh in with lots of analysis and data and try to get everyone worried and paying attention. That's literally their business. But consider this. For all the expert analysis and data crunching about the economy (which has far more data than a presidential election), the experts just missed today's GDP number by 50%, and that's for the past three months, not an event happening 18 months in the future. (The economy is actually growing much slower than expected, so of course, the stock market is zooming.)
So, your observation the economy has dramatically slowed gives you reason to think Biden's chances are greater? Really?
The economy in Q1 won't be relevant in Nov '24. Even if GDP slips negative for one or two quarters, it's likely to be growing next year, which will be very relevant.
I don't expect a deep, prolonged recession. A deep recession would be the Republicans' best (and maybe only) chance. Anything's possible, but I don't see one as likely.
Biden has many advantages: incumbency, some significant accomplishments to tout, sanity, majority support on social issues, esp. abortion. He'll be facing a weak (damaged and/or inexperienced) opponent. It would be stupid to bet against him.
One note about that last point.
Trump is the odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination, even if under indictment. There is no bad news that will convince the MAGAs to drop him, and with that support the rest of the party doesn't have a chance. He is not just unpopular. He is deeply hated by a majority of voters. In comparison, any concerns about Biden fade into the background.
But let's say Trump is not the nominee. Assuming he is still breathing, what does that look like? Does Trump concede gracefully and rally support for his victorious opponent? We know what happens and it's not that. Trump goes to war against the GOP establishment that stole the nomination from him. The GOP base is fractured like we never saw before. Any non-Trump GOP nominee will be sorry he or she ever ran.
Tradition says the economy is about everything when an incumbent runs for reelection. I don't think that will hold next year.
I think the economy will be fine (probably!), but unless we see an extreme downturn the odds are in Biden's favor.
(And if an extreme downturn happens because Republicans cause a default, then it's debatable whether Biden gets the blame.)
Spot on, about TFG. If he isn’t the nominee, the least bad thing for the GOP is for him to stay on the sidelines sniping and finding ways to monetize his defeat. Most of the cult will sit out the election and Republicans will be crushed. The worst is, he runs third-party, splits the R vote, and comes in second. Republicans will be crushed.
What I hear you saying is that we have a lot of work to do to ensure some 80+ year old while male isn't the next president of the united states.
Sure, because everything, everywhere, all the time has to be all about identity ....