Here are a couple more boring economic charts. I'm almost done for the day, I promise.
(Almost.)
The first is new orders per capita for capital goods from manufacturers. It just keeps going down and down. Manufacturing is not going to save us.
But here's something a little cheerier:
We've all seen the charts showing that semiconductor companies are spending a lot of money on new construction, but when are they going to actually start producing more stuff? The answer seems to be that they already have. In the middle of 2023 the growth rate of semiconductor output abruptly jogged upward. It's been rising at a 9% annual rate since April of last year.
You're right, Manufacturing won't save us. But we just elected a guy who will guarantee that we pay about a third more for most of our technology -- Japan, Singapore and South Korea will breathe a genuine sigh of relief that they can boost their margins now since China will no longer be able to undercut them.
Everything nice will be a third more expensive, but plastic plates from a Texas City factory will still be cheap.
That's nothing. Wait until you see the increased production next year. He has a 3-step strategy:
1. Tariffs
2. ???
3. Big increases in domestic production!
Bbbut, wasn't the IRA also supposed to help get manufacturing going?
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/16/fact-sheet-two-years-in-the-inflation-reduction-act-is-lowering-costs-for-millions-of-americans-tackling-the-climate-crisis-and-creating-jobs/
But the boards are still made in China.
A sad lose-lose for Taiwan As soon as China can make enough, they’ll invade. As soon as we can make enough Trump will do a Kurds sequel