How dangerous would a second Trump term be? The conventional wisdom says that after learning his lesson during his first term, Trump would be unleashed in a second term to do anything he wants with no one to push back against him. Maybe so. But I've never been too sure about this. For starters, keep in mind the three main things that motivate Trump:
- Appearing tough and getting the best in negotiations.
- Retribution against those who have laughed at him (elites) or who caused him real or perceived harm.
- Flapping his mouth and always being the center of attention.
Given all this, what is Trump likely to do in a second term? I'm reluctant to confess this, but my take has long been that it won't be a lot worse than his first term. Let's break this down by all the actions he might take. These are in no particular order:
- Stop aid to Ukraine. He might. A lot of Republicans would be on his side, and he's always been mad at Zelenskyy over the events surrounding his first impeachment.
- Appoint lunatic cabinet members. Yes, to some extent. But even a Republican Senate full of loyalists will place limits on this.
- Build the wall. This makes him look tough, so he'll probably do it. Republicans prevented this in his first term but won't in a second term. However, although this is a waste of money, it's not likely to do lasting harm.
- Deport 20 million illegal immigrants. This is big talk, like "Mexico will pay for it." But it's not feasible. It would require enormous manpower and enormous expenditures, and even at that it wouldn't work. What's more, the business wing of the party would fight hard against it. In the end, Trump might beef up ICE, but not a lot more.
- Place 10% tariffs on everything from everybody. It's unclear what Trump really wants to do on tariffs, but the maximal version isn't workable. National security goes only so far as a justification, and Trump is bound by treaty obligations just like any other president. I wouldn't be surprised if he tightened tariffs on China, but not much more.
- Appoint lots of conservative judges. Yep.
- Cut taxes on businesses and the rich. Yep.
- Kill the Inflation Reduction Act. He might very well try to do this. It's a signature Biden initiative, so it would fit his retribution motivation, and green spending is unpopular among Republicans.
- Tell the Justice Department to indict his political opponents. This is mostly big talk, used as a campaign device. Once he wins, he won't really care that much.
- Tell the Justice Department to end its cases against him. Absolutely yes.
- Repeal Obamacare. This is hard to call. He might want another crack at the one big piece of retribution that failed in his first term. But with the ACA now ten years old, it's not clear if he'd have the votes.
- Replace 4,000 civil servants with political loyalists. Again, this is mostly big talk, though Trump would probably love to do it. The problem is that he'd likely need congressional approval, and I think there would be some Republican holdouts. Plus Democrats would filibuster it. Plus there are practical issues involved in trying to hire this many people. In his first term Trump (along with every other president) had trouble even filling the thousand or so presidential appointees already on the books. Plus Democrats would get to do the same thing the next time they're in office.
- Drill for oil everywhere. Yes. But honestly, we pretty much do this already.
- Ban abortion nationwide. Trump knows this would be political suicide, and he cares way more about his own reputation than he does about abortion. He won't do it. Nor could it pass Congress anyway.
- Project 2025. This has gotten lots of attention recently, but it's really just standard boilerplate from the Heritage Foundation. Trump has given no serious sign that he plans to use it as a blueprint, and he isn't really a blueprint guy in the first place.
- Refuse to leave office after four years. This won't happen. The Constitution requires him to leave and there's no way around that. There is zero possibility of amending the Constitution and zero possibility of Trump rounding up the physical force necessary to stay in office illegally.
- Destroy democracy. Trump's assault on the 2020 election was obviously an enormous assault on democracy. But everything else Trump did was handled in the ordinary way. Bills passed through Congress. Supreme Court justices were confirmed by the Senate. Court orders were obeyed. This will continue.
- Endless chaos. Absolutely yes. This is all part of Trump's pathological desire to always be the center of attention.
- Pull out of NATO. Trump has mostly gotten what he wanted from NATO (bigger defense spending), and in any case NATO is pretty popular in Congress. He'll keep up the big talk, but he won't seriously try to leave our oldest and most basic military alliance.
- Freedom cities. Oh please.
- Sending the National Guard into high-crime cities. This is big talk, but it won't happen. Crime has plummeted since Trump left office, and if he gets back in it won't be long before he proclaims America safe once again.
- Close the Department of Education. Congress has to do this, and it probably won't since plenty of them would object (it's a source of power). And even if Trump did manage to close it down, it's meaningless unless he also shuts down all the programs currently managed by the department. He's given no indication that he plans to do that.
- Roll back Biden-era rules on electric vehicles. Yes, he'll probably do this. He has the authority; it would be a poke in the eye to Biden; and Republicans are mostly on board with it.
Aside from the usual Republican practice of cutting taxes and appointing conservative judges, Trump will probably build the wall, increase some tariffs, gut the environment, and appoint some nutballs. He might try to overturn Obamacare, kill IRA, and end aid to Ukraine.
That's it. That's my best guess about what a second Trump term will be like. Unlike most incoming presidents, I don't think Trump has anything that could seriously be called a policy agenda. He just wants to prove he can win. Once in office he'll preside over a potpourri of unrelated bad policy initiatives, but probably not anything too out of the ordinary for a Republican president.
Plus endless chaos. And, admittedly, a lot of tail risk that you wouldn't have with an ordinary Republican.
But by far the most likely outcome is that a second Trump term would be bad but not catastrophic. The United States is a very big ship, and even Trump can't turn it much in only four years. There's even an upside: If Trump wins, maybe it will give Democrats some time sit back and think seriously about why so many people refuse to vote for them even when the alternative is Donald Trump.
Out of touch.
Trump adores dictators, and regrads supressing the population ("being strong") as the highest achievement. That is what he will try to do. The rest is just noise.
I feel strikingly less sanguine about every part of that.
"this thing that's a big deal to you? it's not troubling at all to me, kevin drum".
It also omits the most obvious thing that will change, which Yglesias spelled out really nicely a few days ago: creation of a massive, entrenched corruption apparatus. He points out that tariffs in particular invite parochial corruption related to companies lobbying for exemptions to bureaucratic entities that aren’t equipped to rigorously evaluate the claims.
This is the biggest consequence of a second Trump term- straight up political corruption will be basically unfettered and the government will rapidly turn into the predatory, destructive apparatus that the Right pretends that it is.
I'm less worried about Trump himself, than I am about the D-list people he will appoint to high positions in the government. Not A-list for sure, not even B-list. They'll prove to be incompetent and/or destructive, and the destructive ones will be unfortunately competent at it. And the judges will be a weight on the nation for decades to come.
It's not Trump himself what would be any/much different.
It's the army of partisans who will come in with him. Republicans learned last time that they need to spoonfeed what they want to him and they've been preparing for that for 4 years now (or longer).
What do you think the hubbub about Project 2025 is about? It's certainly not about Trump. He's just the vehicle.
I do think the damage to the administrative state would be catastrophic. Perhaps not fatal, not immediately, but I think the damage could be irreversible in our lifetimes - and I'm in my 30s. We could be looking at an enshrinement of religious authoritarianism within the administrative and judicial apparatuses for DECADES (the judicial bit has already basically happened...). Watch for Republifucks to enact as much as Project 2025 as they can, as quickly as they can - and while sure, a Democratic administration could change the rules back, with the death of Chevron it will all be open to an avalanche of conservative lawsuits that will be ruled on by conservative judges. It's bad. Very bad. Very very bad.
That's a big fucking deal.
Obligatory:
That thing you're worried about? It's not a big deal to me, Kevin Drum.
Kevin,
This is very bad. The whole point about Trump is not what *he* will do, but what he will *let* others do. You're thinking Nixon. We need to be thinking Rwanda.
portland will be an american srebanica.
"We don't want a president who can think,we already know what the top 1% want him to do. He only needs to be capable if signing with a pen!" Grover Norquist
Why would he let up on ordering the Justice Department to go after his enemies?
Also, don't forget stealing money and exposing national secrets.
You also maybe left off sitting back while Russia invades Eastern Europe.
Russia won't stop at Eastern Europe either, there's the Baltic states plus Finland and Sweden and who knows what else.
Naive. Many forces are intending to implement those measures, and there is much less in terms of what has been called "guardrails" to stop them. Very naive take.
4 more years of destroying the judiciary (and re-stocking the Supreme Court) BY ITSELF will destroy the United States as we know it.
It's too late, they already have a majority.
Better than a liberal majority.
Please don't feed this troll.
The two worst things for the entire world at the moment would be failing to address climate change and allowing a resurgent Russia. Trump will gleefully do both of these. Anything else is just icing.
If "conservative judges" meant a lot of Robert Borks and Antonin Scalias, well, I wouldn't necessarily feel the catastrophe. But the radical judge in Texas? Aileen Cannon? Alito and Thomas? How many more are waiting in the wings? They'll be corrupt from day one insofar as they'll side with the Republican Party over the law. It's unsettling.
Talk about whistling past the graveyard, Pollyanna! One of the very few times I deeply and actively disagree with you, Kevin.
"18. Endless chaos. Absolutely yes." And that concession is repeated later. And it's the whole ball of wax right there, isn't it?
There are a few things trump personally cares about, and he'll push them to the hilt-- vengeance, windmills, showerheads, making money from any and every official function he can think of, etc. The rest he'll leave to the most lickspittle functionaries, so the likes of Stephen Miller can go ahead and do whatever their hard little hearts desire.
Think senate approval will be a check? I see we've forgotten "acting" appointments already, even neglecting the MAGAfication of all things gop.
So, as others have said, it's the underlings who matter. We know that personnel is policy, and he'll get the personnel he wants-- Heritage and Johnny McEntee are already working on it, they'll be "acting" if that's what it takes, and he'll enjoy watching McEntee and Heritage fight for his favor. He won't care what these appointees end up doing, but the process is a good way to destroy institutional structures and bring on kleptocracy.
As for us little people, we'll just have to spend inordinate amounts of time, money, and energy trying to avoid getting caught by the fallout one way or another, trying to figure out what the rules are, trying (eventually) to figure out who we have to pay off.
Chaos is not without consequences.
The word optimist pales in comparison.
"Replace 4,000 civil servants with political loyalists. Again, this is mostly big talk, though Trump would probably love to do it."
Yeah, but that misses the point. You don't *have* to replace government employees with loyalists. You just have to make enough examples by firing a few career types, stripping away their pensions, and or subjecting them to audits or other legal troubles such that the rest of the bureacracy voluntarily toes the line in small ways.
This isn't about replacing principled people with toadies--it's about morally compromising the great majority of them so that, when called upon to make any of the millions of decisions that federal employees make every day, they think "If I do something the ruling party doesn't like, could I be next? Can we afford the kids' tuition on just my spouse's salary? If I lose my retirement benefits, where will I go?" etc.
Look at what Trump did to McCabe--how many nobodies in the bureacracy have the profile and the resources to fight back against that? Especially if Trump Admin 2 strips away their employment protections?
BTW, if I'm remembering right, that 4,000-employee number is the *current* list of political appointees that every incoming administration fills. They'll need that number regardless if they win (and won't have a speck of trouble finding them).
When we're talking about reclassifying civil service slots as Schedule F, which essentially means making them at-will employees, the numbers are in the tens of thousands-- 50,000 or more has been talked of. "At-will" in a loyalty-above-all administration means, as you say, they don't need to find 50,000 loyal people. It'll be enough to make a few examples of current civil servants "pour encourager les autres."
And that really is trump's style. He loves to threaten.
"Sending the National Guard into high-crime cities. This is big talk, but it won't happen."
Sounds like somebody doesn't remember the federal stormtroopers all over DC back in summer 2020. I do. I was there. That's not any america I recognize or want to recognize. But Trump will absolutely do that again. Esp. to crush protests against his presidency.
And he will intentionally provoke such protests so he can crush them.
Agreed.
I mean, ffs, has Kevin forgotten how Trump praised the Tiananmen Square massacre? How he had to be disuaded from having tanks roll through DC as part of his idiot 4th of July military parade? All the praise that he heaps upon Putin and Xi and Kim Jong Un? The dude wants to be seen as a strong man crushing dissent. And he'll be surrounded by people who want to see him that way.
how about CA burns to the ground or illinois gets hit by storm flooding and trump denies federal aid
new pandemic-grade covid variant hits and trump outlaws masks in all federal buildings/military installations
the comstock act gets dusted off
You could have stopped at #1. Pull funding from Ukraine, let Putin advance, and with the repercussions from that alone a Trump term would be “catastrophic.”
You could add: arrest members of Congress. You don’t need Trump for that though. That threat came today from Mike Johnson. He says he will arrest members who dare to protest Netanyahu’s speech.
This is who these people are. Don’t be a fool. Wake up!
One other point; if Trump wins, expect to see a new president named Vance before 2028.
Yeah Trump is the cutout fall guy. When Vance was announced it was clear that he is the anointed one to enact Project 2025.
if vance tries to 25th amendment trump in summer 2025, does the trump brood (donald john, jr, ivanka, eric) help their dad contest it, or will jr & eric be bought in on moving on & riding as ambassadors to say czechia & australia in a vance regime?
Good point. Republicans have been saying for a long time that the race is really about Kamala Harris. Fine. Let's make this about J.D. Vance, then. The likelikhood that he may succeed Trump before 2028 is pretty high. He's a rich oppo research target if there ever was one.
irs investigates every congressional democrat and they all get assigned their own personal special prosecutor
Good gravy Kevin is at it again. Comfortably retired closer to the end than the beginning he blithely brushes off our very real fears at being targeted by a Trump administration. I'm an early Gen X'er, too young to retire but too old to being able regroup if The Purge happens and yet they are resolute about that don't be stupid EVERY GOP'er will be on board for that, they are being blackmailed to be kept in line or primaried out if they aren't faithful enough. Worse still I'm the one sibling who had a prayer of being able to afford to retire and maybe help my other two sibs out because life handed them lemons that they've run out of time to overcome.
Here's my hot take. If Democrats retain one or both houses of Congress (especially the Senate) for all four years, yes, they can probably blunt a lot of the worst impulses of a second Trump administration and Kevin's scenario here probably holds. Probably. If Trump wins the WH *and* both houses of Congress, it's the end. Full stop. The End. Look up Gleichschaltung and buckle up.
And Kevin didn't even get to all the ways Trump will politicize the military, LEOs, etc. around the country.
the scotus immunity decision was a big wet kiss to an incoming T2 administration
"Trump's assault on the 2020 election was obviously an enormous assault on democracy. But... "
But other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
Also, put me down as endorsing almost every other comment posted so far.
I haven’t heard much about “the wall”. He is promising to “close the border”. I think he will do his damdest to do that including Abbott tactics. I’m assuming a minimum a lot of deaths. Who will care?
I wonder how Ukraine feels about Kevin’s lack of concern for their ability to exist?
I do think there will be mass deportations. They won’t get all 20 million, but millions will suffer and natural born citizens will be among those deported. Plus Trump will work on ending citizenship for people born here.
I can see a way around the 22nd amendment. So let’s say Michelle Obama runs for President with Barack as vice president. Then, just after being sworn in she resigns.
Of course, the Obamas wouldn’t do that. Trump? Vance? And really that’s only if you think Trump will even bother obeying the constitution. And why would you do that?
In order for the U.S. to remain in NATO its leaders will have to act like Ted Cruz. Maybe yes, maybe no. But you can bet Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will be sacrificed.
There will be drilling/mining in our national parks.
The entirety of the LBGTQ community will be in deep do-do. I don’t know how far he will go except to say “too”.
Etc. It might not be as bad as I think (the end of democracy, full authoritarian dictatorship) but I’m sure it will be way worse than Kevin thinks.
"If Trump wins, maybe it will give Democrats some time sit back and think seriously about why so many people refuse to vote for them even when the alternative is Donald Trump."
I've given up trying to find an answer to this question. My only conclusion is that roughly half the people in this country are mean, stupid, vengeful assholes just like Trump, and love what he has done and wants to do. There is no other *logical* reason I can see.
Trump's support is based on two factors:
1) Our economy completely fails working-class people. Millions of Americans are one serious illness away from bankruptcy, and they resent mainstream pols who they don't see doing anything about it. Had Trump not entered the race, many of these people would have gone for Sanders.
2) Trump really does have charisma. I mean, I don't see it myself, but The Apprentice became a hit for a reason.
I don't disagree. But when Obama proposed a reform of the health-insurance system that would keep them form being "one serious illness away from bankruptcy", they -- and the politicians they supported -- they fought against it to the end.
1) Trump's supporters are NOT the overlooked working poor struggling to make ends meet and afford medical insurance. Those people vote Democrat by fairly large margins. MAGAt's are overwhelmingly what we call the petit bourgeoisie: (almost all) white, small business owners who think any challenges they face are the result of women and minorities being given a "free ride" by the liberal welfare state or whatever argle, bargle, and evangelicals who see him as the last, best chance to vindicate their faith -- violently if necessary -- after half a century of being relegated to the wilderness in modern American culture (if not politics). Then you've got your old-school rich Republicans who just want tax cuts and don't give a shit if everything burns to the ground around them.
2) Trump does have charisma. The greatest threat to a liberal democracy since ancient Greece has always been the populist demagogue who harnesses some discontent and weaponizes it to become a tyrant. It looked for a while that the American Constitution had found a formula for holding that at bay, but it seems that our luck may have run out there...
yup.
it's people like kid rock's dad, the cadillac dealer, not the mechanics they underpay, who are trump's base.
Now take a look at that list through the eyes of a 22 year-old living in a purple state--without a safe, solid blue government, like California.
That's my niece's situation, and I look at the prospects for her--or any woman at peril from the He Man Woman's Hater's Club.
You will never have this moment. They will:
https://youtu.be/rP4lFtw0Hfo?si=eDIqY6vZPXM1mle_
pretty sure those constitutional sheriffs will rape that girl too, without a rubber, knowing she can't get pregnant twice.
& if the stress of the assault induces a miscarriage, charge her with murder.
All of the above comments, and more. My contribution is about Trump as a person. Trump is not just a venal, narcissistic, vengeful, amoral, gutless asshole. He's a deeply f***ed up human being, of which I guarantee we have only seen glimmers of yet. He's like the stock market - past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes. If he wins in November we'll be lucky to see only the list that Kevin outlined, but that won't happen. There is darkness in Trump that will be given full license if he wins; yes, the forces a second Trump term would unleash are full on fascist, but Trump himself has been twisted in deep and dark ways by his upbringing and life. I've never seen anyone with more repressed shame and rage than Trump; it's at the core of why so many identify with him, it's at the core of modern American 'conservatism.' What's being unleashed is not just politics as usual. If anyone wants a crystal clear picture of what we're facing, I highly recommend reading "For Your Own Good" by Alice Miller. If he wins we are in big, big trouble.
""For Your Own Good" by Alice Miller"
I was thinking a second Trump term, combined with the recent SCOTUS rulings, would lead to a scenario more like "Parable of the Sower" by Octavia Butler.
Now let's do what would be so bad about a second Biden term. Seriously, if you think a 2nd Trump term will be bad but not catastrophic, then let's do why a second Biden term will be so catastrophic.
Low unemployment, more people with health insurance, low inflation, strong international leadership. Yeah, a second Biden term will be catastrophic--for Putin.
Smarter trolls, please.
yup.
inflation was higher during the roaring 90s of bill clinton, & the economy was acknowledged as great by all sides.
trump had low inflation because he came at the end of the decade post-great recession, when the economy still hadn't fully recovered from the price collapse of the housing crisis.
Who thinks it will be? People calling on Biden to step aside are not doing it because they think he was/will be a bad president, it is entirely about thinking he will be unable to win.
massive taxes on lithium/windmills/solar panels
gut federal budgets at the IRS, SEC, CFPB, EPA, NRC
Mr. Drum forgot looting and grifting. The deportation scheme is probably the worst thing on that list and it does seem a bit far fetched. He’ll need a lot of help to pull that off. Maybe it’s just a reign of terror instead. Local cops cruise up to the Home Depot parking lot and roust the day laborers for fun. Certainly they have a list of people to target. Vance said they would start with violent criminals which seemed to narrow the scope considerably.
So who knows? I am surprised Mr. Drum thinks there are republicans in congress who would stand in the way of these things.
Is there anyone that thinks violent criminal illegal aliens should remain in the US? That seems like a no brainer that we should make every effort to deport them.
did op say anything about violent criminal immigrants without visas?
& you say you aren't racist nor xenophobic.
I was replying to Justin’s comment. He was talking about deportations. You don’t deport American citizens.
undocumented immigrants are pointedly not citizens.
but, yes, trump will absolutely bring back operation wetback, during which citizens were unquestionably deported.
"Is there anyone that thinks violent criminal illegal aliens should remain in the US?"
No. Most undocumented immigrants are not violent criminals.
yup.
Deportation will be an opportunity to make local law enforcement outside the major cities into the party's army/internal security force (I think poster Yehouda is right that trump, and more importantly the organized Bannonite faction using trump as cover, hankers for a private army to keep the populace in line).
I'd fully expect them to use enticements to get the locals on board, like, for example, paying a bounty for each person they round up. That'll encourage them to be sure they don't round up any citizens or legal residents by accident, you betcha. But don't worry, you'll be fine as long as your skin is paper-white and your eyes are blue.
" Maybe it’s just a reign of terror instead."
Bingo.
The whole "massive deprtation" thing as a fig-leaf for creating a Trump-loyal militia, so he can use against anybody he wants to.