Let's break down the $15 minimum wage fight to its tactical basics so that we understand exactly why it went down to defeat:
- As part of the coronavirus bill it could have passed with 50 votes in the Senate, but it failed because it attracted only 48 votes. This had nothing to do with the parliamentarian's ruling. It was because Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema opposed raising the minimum wage to $15.
- As a compromise standalone bill (at, say, $11 per hour) it might get Manchin and Sinema's votes, but Republicans would filibuster it and it would lose.
- If Democrats had been willing to compromise in the first place, it might have passed as part of the coronavirus bill. The parliamentarian still would have ruled against it, but Kamala Harris could overrule her and then it could have passed with 50 votes. Maybe.
Any other questions?
Hold on - if Democrats had compromised from the beginning, how would that solve the reconciliation issue?
I agree that the lack of a majority for a $15 minimum wage is the most relevant issue and not the parliamentarian, but I don’t understand your last bullet. If a $15 minimum wage is not germane to the budget, how would an $11 minimum wage be germane?
This could still be done. If Schumer made an agreement with Mansion and Sinema they could substitute that agreement into the bill. Then pass it with 50 votes with Harris overruling the Parliamentarian. Yes it would have to go back to the House but whatever they pass will have to go back to the House because the bill with or without the minimum wage won't be the same bill.
So...bringing it up to $11 would have been achievable?
I doubt it. The Democrats can't overrule the Parliamentarian without losing some of their credulity. That's their counter to the Republican's complete lawlessness and chaos.
Because overruling the parliamentarian is exactly like invading and vandalizing the Capitol, beating and trampling people to death, and attempting to overturn the election. /s
In this Ohio diner, it's worse.
Just get $12 in five years into law now. Manchin and Sinema will accept that as a compromise. An immediate dollar+ increase -- maybe close to 20% -- will be a huge help to low wage workers, as will roughly a dollar a year after that. If $15 looks more feasible later, it can be done before it would have kicked in anyway.
Nobody gives a crap about credibility. The Senate President overruling the Parliamentarian has been done before, by both parties. Do it even if Biden doesn't want to. Just frickin' get it done. Let the Republicans who voted against Covid Relief AND an increase in the minimum wage, both extremely popular non-partisan moves with Democrats, Independents and Republicans, stew in their own juices, which, we would hope, will be kept simmering by Democratic messaging and brought to a boil in the fall of 2022.
The general popularity of both measures even in the business community, means the only vote that's based solely on partisanship is the Republican vote. It's beyond time to make clear that it is the Republicans who bear the responsibility for reducing partisanship, not Democrats following policies Americans want. Biden should make that clear and remind people, especially the gutless American press afraid of Republican complaints, even as in bad faith as they are, that it takes two to tango.
Yes, go for the achievable - classic example of 15 letting the 'Perfect' be the enemy of the 'Good'
Focusing on achievable broadly popular levels that gets enough votes on board moves things forward.
Messaging about real achievements, bread-and-butter...
There is always the possibility of attaching the minimum-wage increase to a must-pass bill; though that may have to wait for the appropriations bill for FY2022. At least by then the opposition shouldn't be able to credibly use the excuse that the economy is in too precarious a state.
Oh, who am I kidding. Right now Republicans are saying that the economy is doing so well we don't need the Covid relief bill; but businesses will be destroyed if they have to pay their employees $15/hr.
When your opponents have turned themselves into 'the knights who say "Ni!"' setbacks such as this are not unexpected. The thing to do is to accept them with equanimity, pursue your overall agenda, and wait for the voters to do the things that have made democracy largely workable so far.
I do not understand what Manchin and Sinema think they're proving. Republicans don't like it because they're evil. Why don't Manchin and Sinema accept it?
I have never heard a cogent argument from them.
Tis better to let them go against the minimum wage NOW and keep the Senate DEM. If they support this now we lose both states and McConnell becomes the king pin again.
I'd rather fight a delaying action to see how 2022 turns out.
We rail against republicans who don't want COVID relief passed when their constituents actually WANT it. DEMs are now being asked to do things their constituents DON'T want (not as high as $15).
Do we risk control of the senate over the minimum wage or no?
https://www.wdtv.com/2021/02/25/poll-majority-of-west-virginians-support-15-federal-minimum-wage/
What are dems being asked to do that their constituents don't want?
It is a bit of a head-scratcher, because one would imagine the 15 hour minimum wage polls well in their states (it polls well everywhere). I have to assume they're fearful of pushback from business interests in their states.
That's exactly it, I think. Lots of businesses employing minimum-wage workers are screaming bloody murder about this, though I can understand that better in the case of Arizona (lots of ag, landscaping, etc.) than WV.
Manchin, Sinema and every Republican.
I think that's a fair assessment. Right now, Biden/Harris/Schumer are playing a comparatively conservative (as opposed to risky) legislative strategy, one of Getting Things Done to get a positive first 100 days balance, and to get pieces in place to kill the filibuster if needed. Though the minimum wage is popular, it just misses the threshold of getting enough public support for "look what you made us do".
The VP hasn't overruled the Senate parliamentarian since 1975, IIRC. Doing so now would generate a fair amount of blowback by the right -- some of which might stick. No, the voting public doesn't closely follow the minutiae of the legislative process, but headlines screaming "Power-drunk Dems are running roughshod over the rules!" might penetrate the fog. Not what you want when you've still got a key piece of legislation (the relief bill) that ^must^ be passed to maximize the political fortunes of Democrats over the next four years (states can increase their own minimum wages, after all, and have been doing so with abandon in recent years).
I agree with Kevin that the primary issue is the opposition of Sinema and Manchin, but like a lot of the analysis, I think it's possible he underestimate the devotion to the filibuster on the part of Manchin. No, the WV Senator doesn't possess ^substantive^ reasons for wanting to uphold the filibuster. His reasons are entirely political: it's all part of his ongoing branding effort to avoid being seen as an out of the mainstream, radical (ie, overly loyal) Democrat. He's very mavricky!
IOW, in the parallel universe where Manchin would prefer that the minimum wage hiked to fifteen bucks, he might nonetheless not be willing to see the parliamentarian overruled to get us there.
Also, one other thought: if it's true that Manchin/Sinema won't support an increase to 15 dollars, shouldn't we all be thanking the Senate parliamentarian? Because if she hadn't issued her ruling, isn't there a possibility Biden's relief bill would have failed in the Senate?
Again, an increase in the federal minimum wage would be nice (it's overdue), but in my view the relief bill is truly a must. Republicans sharply increase their odds in both 2022 and 2024 if they can defeat it.
Yes, I think it's better for the Democrats to have the parliamentarian toss the minimum-wage hike out of the covid relief bill than for Manchin and Sinema to face the choice of either voting down relief or voting for the $15.
Got it in one! Why is this so hard to grasp -- adding the $15/hr minimum wage provision to the relief bill just gives cover for Manchin and Sinese to vote yes after it's been dropped. Or, alternatively, it's a way to chivvy them into voting for the relief bill once the provision they've objected to has been dropped.
Why don't people get that Democrats have upped their optics game by an order of magnitude or more over their pre-Trump era play?
Yes, next question(s): what's going on in Manchin's and Sinema's minds and what do they really want? We might as well just give it to them and save a lot of trouble.
What do they want? I think they want to signal to their constiuents in a very purple state (Sinema) and in a batshit Trumpist one (Manchin) that they aren't slavish devotees of the antichrist -- that is Warren and/or AOC.
Yes, but why were Manchin and Sinema opposed to something that would help their states, business and labor, so much?