Via the LA Times, here's a chart about COVID booster shots from a presentation given at a San Francisco Health Commission meeting:
The effectiveness of protecting against a symptomatic case of Omicron goes from 5% to 48% following a booster shot. Protection against a trip to the hospital goes from 67% to 91%.
GET YOURSELF BOOSTED!
or at least get vaccinated if you're not already...
Cases in NY over 100/100K, i.e. >0.1% of the population per day is testing positive. And that is just a fraction of the cases..... Overall, in the US, we're at 50 new cases per day per 100K. Numbers will vary a bit, but that translates into 0.5 to 1% of the population being infected every day. And numbers are still increasing in most areas. Looks like when this wave hits an area, it will peak in two weeks to a month, then fall off a cliff. (ok, maybe wishful thinking).
Note, omicron can only spread this fast because it easily re-infects people. It will also infect vaccinated once their immunity has waned. In both cases, you can expect the immune system to respond and prevent very serious disease. However, the un-vaccinated are still dominating the hospitalizations, i.e. ca. 75% of those being hospitalized are un-vaccinated. (yes, just restating Kevin's point).
This will probably the last day with numbers unaffected by the holiday season--expect them to bounce around a lot over Christmas and New Years.
Wearing masks still helps (indoors, and with some social distancing)--esp. if you can get some good ones.
Home tests were everywhere before Thanksgiving--I should have bought extra then....
The vaccination numbers for PA have been straightened out--see CovidActNow. The statewide number is no longer way larger than the values for any given county.
I need to Go Shopping for a Costco Chicken.
Maybe not as monumental issue as the upcoming invasion of Europe by Russia, but still of some concern to me. I hope they are not sold out.
And I hope likewise, everyone gets what they want for Christmas.
Best Wishes, Traveller
We were at Costco yesterday. Tgey had chickens at about noon. Good luck! And Merry merry!
Yikes, that was supposed to go under the Shopping thread! Already I'm not getting what I want for Christmas...Have I been bad this year?!? Traveller
No. You're on Santa's "good little boys & girls" list. I suspect his list also includes folks who "identify" as neither, because it's Santa! Happy holidays! (All of 'em)
Golack .
I agree with pretty much all of what you said except maybe one little point.
It looks to me too that omicron will rise fast peak high and then fall very fast. That is not really " optimistic ". If it goes up real fast and thus peaks at a very high number and infects such a high % of the USA ( 70%, 80%!), then it HAS to fall fast . It is going to fall off a cliff.
If we manage to " flatten the curve " by masking, restrictions, etc. - forget vaccine any one today will be too late to take effect for this wave - as I strongly advocate for today but is not going to happen , then cases will not drop as fast and the wave lasts longer.
There are two sides to each coin. Either we have a flattened curve with lower peak ( good) which then last longer and takes longer to fall ( bad) or vice versa.
What you describe is the pessimistic non flattened curve, which does have an optimistic side, but the bad outweighs the good.
And I expect we will get closer to the bad result . I just hope not the super bad . As long as medical system does not totally break down , I am relatively happy.
The point I disagree is where you say that omicron can reinfect " easily " and can infect vaccinated once immunity wanes.
There is zero reason to think omicron will reduce natural immunity more than vaccine immunity. Should be the opposite. Forget arguing which is better before omicron . Which is reduced more . What omicron has is incredible number of mutations on spike protein, which is the only thing vaccine antibodies recognize ( they did not get to see anything else) . So great fear that omicron might totally nullify vaccine immunity ( but it does not ). But natural antibodies recognize entire virus and omicron has fewer mutations outside of spike. So of course more of natural immunity should survive, still reduced as spike is part of natural, just not all. Omicron sure does look like what vog was always worried about - a mutation specifically to avoid vaccine. And the reduction for natural is just a side effect.
The theory why vaccine could be better long term than natural was that covid would be unable to mutate the spike much as it was so crucial to it. And easier to mutate other less essential parts which would weaken natural but leave vaccine untouched. So expectation was we would see a lot of variants with non spike mutations penetrating natural immunity only . Instead delta seems to reduce both ( though probably not by immunity avoidance and just being overall better) and omicron which will reduce vaccine more. This is unexpected.
So " easily " reinfected is too strong. If you had delta a month ago , will make it hard , but not impossible, for omicron. You imply that omicron can only infect after vaccine immunity has waned. Wrong. There have been quite a few infections in people who have gotten recent boosters whose vaccine immunity is at peak . It is just that good .
Even if you were boosted 3 weeks ago, do not think you cannot get omicron if you go to a large unmasked indoor new years eve party with 100 people where likely multiple people are infected. Get a large viral dose and it will penatrate that peak immunity. Do NOT count on peak vaccine, or peak natural immunity, to protect you from this .
If you want to be selfish, go ahead and go to that party . Because at peak immunity, while you can get infected, the chance of getting very sick is miniscule. Because we all will eventually catch it , maybe even going to try to catch it with peak immunity is best personal choice . But really selfish aa catching now with peak approaching and increasing spread is really bad . Maybe someone else dies who gets it from you without peak immunity. Maybe someone with cancer dies, because hospitals are overloaded.
Please, golack and others, do NOT try to talk up the vaccine by exaggerating how good it still protects from omicron , thinking you are encouraging vaccination. Not NOW. This wave will be over before vaccinations today will help. And we need to flatten this curve today. And letting people think that having peak vaccine immunity is good enough so they can go to that party is BAD.
Have already talked to someone today who got a booster a few weeks ago " so they could safely go to Xmas and new year parties without worrying about a mask".
Just a few points:
1. The booster shot helps. Maximal effect may take a few weeks to kick in, but antibodies are going up within a week, and that helps.
2. "Natural immunity" is not better than vaccinations--at least not for this pandemic. Manaus (Brazil) was hit hard twice--in that case, residual natural immunity did not seem to help. This infection also triggers an overreaction of the immune system, namely inflammation, so things are complicated.
3. Most people will be fine, even if not vaccinated. Most people are not being tested on a regular bases so we can closely monitor outbreaks--so all our information is incomplete. Of course, if just a small percentage of the population is affected, then the hospitals can be overrun.
Natural immunity for millions is better. Deal.
These studies always seem to overstate their case, and when communicated publicly often missing the caveats. As far as antibodies go, neutralization is not everything, and as far as immunity goes, antibodies aren't everything. We should be long past obsessing on infections and instead laser-focused on symptomatic disease, hospitalization, and urgent care admissions (unfortunately, focusing on deaths doesn't help much after-the-fact).
Having said, people should definitely make sure they are vaccinated. Getting boosters is more a personal choice and a moral as well as pragmatic case can be made against it (lack of vaccine availability world-wide). I'm keeping an eye on things, but don't see as a 50 year old that I require a booster, as I have confidence in the long-term immunity provided by the vaccine (I'm a J&J one-and-done).
I could change my mind if things take a turn to the much worse, which I don't expect beyond some peak stressing of our health care system (largely due to the unvaccinated).
As I also said above to golack , and somewhat in contradiction to the big message of Kevin's post , getting boosted today or, even more, getting first vaccine shot, means not so much. It did for months , but not so much now.
Because by the time that booster immunity takes effect, most of the wave will have passed anyway. And looks like what is remaining will be weaker omicron and not delta. If you waited and procrastinated until now to " see how it goes " you missed the boat .
Well not entirely yet . If boosted TODAY , that should be effective before mid January. And looks like we will be at a peak maybe mid January or soon after . So still a window to get boosted immunity at least before a large part of the wave. That will help protect YOU selfishly to a useful extent . Does not do as much for society to help flatten the curve as your immunity will not kick in much before the peak anyway. But still might help a bit.
Waiting to see if the omicron wave really is bad makes no sense . Due to delay in taking effect, it will only be useful after it is not needed very much . Still will help to mitigate future infection as endemic virus but that is less important that right now with the big wave , especially for societal benefit.
If you getting the virus ever makes sense, it makes sense today. Protecting yourself from an infection in March, when covid should be diminished, and when, if you do get really sick, hospitals should not be overwhelmed , is nice. Getting it today, to protect from a high chance of infection in mid January, when, if you do get seriously ill, might be out of luck with hospitals full, is crucial . And you can do your part and reduce chance of infecting anyone before peak and thus flatten that curve.
Decide today and get it asap if you ever are going to.
No, on balance taking into all the factors I don't require a booster and other people need those shots more than me. Plus, I'm confident in the science of long-term immunity protection from vaccines (t-cells and b-cells). Antibodies from booster shots kick in after 7-10 days by the way.
First agree with golack on whether you getting it takes it away from someone else.
And, if you have seen my prior posts, I am with you on feeling fairly optimistic on long term immunity from t cells and b cells and fully agree that some focus too much on just antibodies, such as vog.
And , assuming you are younger than me and in good health , I can understand a decision not to get boosted, even if I might disagree, and would not want to judge you for that . At least if your criteria is just your own personal benefit.
But what about societal benefits. From your prior posts I doubt you are someone so selfish you only care about yourself. Think about others.
And the point is that you might be able to rely on long term tell and B cell immunity for yourself. Likely for most , if you do get covid , long term immunity will take care of it without getting sick or maybe mild symptoms. YOU might not NEED antibodies. After all, that is why your immune system stopped making them. I argue this with people like vog. That our antibodies wane is how out immune system evolved, so likely what is best for you , not bad.
But, if your long term immunity has to kick in to beat an infection, that takes more time versus having active antibodies already there. And, in the meantime, you can be somewhat infections, more and for longer than with active antibodies.
YOU might not need the booster to get active antibodies..but maybe society does to slow down a big wave and reduce the peak.
I think it would have been better to get shots out to the world than to focus on booster here--but not getting a booster now does not free up a shot for someone else in the world, Indeed, it may lead to a wasted vaccine.
Remember, it not just you--your vaccine helps those around you too.
There is a mass delusion right now society-wide about infections and neutralizing antibodies, it's as if the known science of vaccination in terms of t-cells and b-cells has been completely forgotten, and seemingly merely because we don't have a great way to test or measure these (whereas it's pretty easy to do neutralization assays).
I suppose some are wondering what happened to me . Now I am the zealot for restrictions and boosters TODAY.
I have always argued that I was sceptical of whether things like masking mandates made sense given the conditions and limited benefit at the time . But have always said they had a definite use in some situations such as to flatten a curve when facing a scary peak .
Well NOW is the time .
But it is not going to happen as much as it should. And largely because of all the excessive zealotry for restrictions for almost two years. Requiring masks here in LA indoors since spring 2020 except for a short break in spring this year for vaccinated was too much and largely ineffective ( as going to get to herd immunity through same infection number in the end ) ..and it just plain wore the public out . So now , when it is really really needed, and only for a short time until the wave has passed , people are going to resist.
Not often mentioned is that a fairly large percentage of the population suffers from trypanophobia, i.e needle phobia.
A meta-analysis of the various studies down on the past few years yielded this summary:
"The majority of children exhibited needle fear, while prevalence estimates for needle fear ranged from 20-50% in adolescents and 20–30% in young adults. In general, needle fears decreased with increasing age. Both needle fear and needle phobia were more prevalent in females than males. Avoidance of influenza vaccination because of needle fear occurred in 16% of adult patients, 27% of hospital employees, 18% of workers at long-term care facilities, and 8% of healthcare workers at hospitals. Needle fear was common when undergoing venipuncture, blood donation, and in those with chronic conditions requiring injection.
The study came out in 2018 but it does suggest that perhaps half of all the resistence towards vaccines may be attributable to an unspoken needle phobia.
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https://www.biospace.com/article/omicron-vastly-outpaces-previous-strains-in-replication-/
https://www.google.com/search?q=omicron+upper+respiratory+%22cytokine+storm%22
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/omicron-may-not-damaging-lungs-covid-variants-says-study/
The guest on this show Paul Offit was one of the FDA advisory board members who voted against boosters for everyone:
https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-844/
I posted this last night on a thread further down. It needs moving
Someone here in a previous post mentioned Delta and Omicron existing side by side . IT is an interesting theory
I am not familiar with this website nor do I endorse it over others but the rheory put forth here is interesting
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/is-omicron-a-new-wave-or-a-parallel-pandemic.html
I will produce a number of snips from this article:
But for those used to interpreting pandemic news in terms of “good news” and “bad,” the new variant also raises some disorienting questions about future immunity and the course of the pandemic to come. That is in part because, to this point, the Omicron wave has been defined primarily by breakthrough infections and reinfection, rather than new illnesses among the unvaccinated and unprotected. *************Three-quarters of early U.S. Omicron cases were among the vaccinated or already infected; in Denmark, with some of the world’s best variant surveillance, the share was the same; in other parts of the world, the figure has been 80 percent or higher. If the new variant spread rapidly through the susceptible population, it would mean huge spikes in hospitalizations and deaths, even at much lower levels of severity. But, in theory, at least, it is also those unprotected who would benefit most from exposure to a “mild” strain, acquiring immunity from an encounter with a relatively less-punishing form of the virus. At the moment, however, it does not appear that Omicron is operating that way. Instead, its astonishingly rapid growth appears to be powered by spread among the already protected.***********
.......But while an early consensus formed that the variant was inarguably more transmissible than Delta, a few newer data points suggest, at least, a more complicated picture. In Denmark, it appears not only that previous infection or vaccination offers less protection against infection with Omicron, but that the new variant is in fact spreading faster among those considered “safe” than those we reflexively consider “vulnerable.” And according to a report published Tuesday by the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics, “Those who have received three doses of a vaccine and test positive for COVID-19 are more likely to be infected with infections compatible with the Omicron variant compared with those who are unvaccinated.”
This doesn’t mean that Omicron prefers the vaccinated, or that the vaccinated are more vulnerable to infection than the unvaccinated, but that the immune evasiveness of the new variant gives it a much bigger relative competitive advantage over Delta among those with prior immune protection than among the unvaccinated.
.......These are just a couple of data points, compiled in the very early — and not necessarily representative — stages of the new wave. The course may well shift as Omicron spreads further, changing the picture and composition of the wave overall. But the early data does suggest the possibility that, as virologist Trevor Bedford warned several weeks ago, Delta and Omicron may be sufficiently distinct that the growth of Omicron doesn’t mean the end of Delta, but that the two ongoing waves are running basically in parallel.
And if the two variants are competing for hosts in two separate populations, it may only be among the vaccinated or previously infected that the new variant has a significant advantage — and that among the vulnerable unvaccinated, Delta may be able to very well hold its own or even outlast Omicron, continuing to infect people and cause severe illness and death after the Omicron wave has crashed.
...........If you remember with Alpha and with Delta, each of them rapidly replaced previous variants.********Here, now, Omicron is growing very rapidly, but it seems to be growing on top of Delta, rather than replacing it, which suggests that they might be occupying different spaces.******** In some individuals, perhaps Omicron has less of an advantage. Delta may even have an advantage. And if Delta has a small advantage in unvaccinated and unexposed people, what you’ll see is that Delta will continue to circulate in people who are susceptible to both. And if Omicron’s major advantage comes from immune evasion, which is what it looks like, then it’ll have a huge advantage over Delta but mainly in vaccinated groups and those with previous infection
Q/A
Q:Here, the advantage seems enormous.
A: It almost feels like they’re operating in two different immunological compartments, and that the cross-immunity between Omicron and Delta is very low because of that high level of divergence. Whereas with Delta and Alpha, they were kind of in the same immunological compartment, but with some escape.
Q: Let’s focus on the lack of replacement: that we’re basically seeing two waves unfolding at once. First of all, is that true everywhere you’re looking? Because I’ve seen some data that suggests in some places, there has been a more total displacement.
A: I think that’s because they started with very, very small Delta waves. South Africa had hardly any cases of Delta when they got Omicron there.
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One of the problems with all of this is that we are basing our current thoughts on what we have seen before. Alpha, Beta, Delta
This guy is saying Omicron is totally different and he is epidemiologist Deepti Gurdasani of the Queen Mary University of London
Now I'm not sounding any alarms here because I believe at least for myself that I am at peak booster protection so if I do get it I am assured that my case will probably be mild.
But make NO MISTAKE this is NOT your daddy's Delta variant, or alpha or Beta.
Where is a study done for people unlucky enough to get a first dose of J&J?
How can a single mRNA booster be anywhere near as good as three doses of an mRNA vaccine?
When will unlucky souls like me get an extra booster shoot?
And boosted… and boosted … and boosted: https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-does-booster-protection-omicron-covid-last-study-2021-12?amp