One of the things I liked about Kamala Harris's convention speech was her explicit plea at the end to reject Donald Trump's apocalyptic view of American decline:
You know, our opponents in this race are out there every day denigrating America, talking about how terrible everything is. Well, my mother had another lesson she used to teach: Never let anyone tell you who you are. You show them who you are.
America, let us show each other and the world who we are and what we stand for: Freedom, opportunity, compassion, dignity, fairness and endless possibilities. We are the heirs to the greatest democracy in the history of the world.
Consider what the country looks like if you view it through Trump's speeches:
- "70% of our people are living in poverty."
According to the Census Bureau, the official poverty rate in 2022 was 11.5%. - "They’ve allowed, I believe, 15 million people into the country from all of these different places like jails, mental institutions."
There are no figures for this because the real number is probably around zero. - "More drugs are coming into our country right now than at any time in our history."
By weight, drug seizures were 33% lower in July than in Trump's last month in office. - "43% increase in violent crime nationwide, 60% increase in rape."
According to the FBI, violent crime is down 19% since Trump left office. Rape is down 23%. - Real wages are down 6% for Black families.
Real income for Black families has increased 2.9% under Biden. (This is through 2022. It's probably more by now.) - "Border crossings were up 1,000% compared to the same month last year, 1,000% compared to last year. And by the way, last year, it was 1,000% compared to the year before."
Border crossings did increase under Biden, but obviously nowhere near 10,000%. As of July, border crossings are up 27% compared to Trump's last month in office. - "Virtually 100% of the new jobs under Biden have also gone to illegal aliens. Did you know that?"
Since Biden entered office, employment has risen 8 million among native-born Americans vs. 3.5 million for non-natives. Of that, possibly half of the non-native jobs have gone to illegal immigrants, or about 15% of the total.
- "If Kamala gets in, we will have 50-60 million illegals from all over the world ferried right into our country."
This is nonsensical. - "Real" unemployment is much higher than reported under Biden.
No it's not. - "Inflation is destroying our families."
The CPI inflation rate in July was 1.9%. Year-over-year it was 2.9%. - "Gasoline prices are now $5, $6, $7 and even $8 a gallon."
The average price of gasoline is currently $3.38.
If you take Trump seriously, America is besieged by poverty, native-born workers are unable to get jobs, drug use is skyrocketing, World War III is imminent if Democrats win, gasoline prices are through the roof, crime is rampant, wages are dropping, inflation is eating up our paychecks, the auto industry is about to implode, Democrats are working furiously to steal the election, Christianity is under siege, and before long a quarter of the country will be illegal immigrants.
If I believed all that, I might vote for Trump too. But none of it is.
Sure, we have problems. Everyone does. Ours include climate change, Black education gaps, drug overdose deaths, teen depression, and a high national debt.
But that's nothing compared to what's right with America. Economic growth is strong. Inflation is low again. Everyone who wants a job has one. Wages are going up. Illegal immigration is moderating. Manufacturing is set to grow. Poverty has been steadily dropping for a decade. We are no longer fighting in any wars. Our kids are mostly very well educated. We are energy independent. We conquered COVID in less than a year. Our entrepreneurial vigor is the best in the world by leagues. The poor have access to a wide range of assistance programs. Teen pregnancies are way down. Technological progress in medicine, AI, and renewable energy promises a spectacular future. And finally, with the usual exception of sub-Saharan Africa, the world is surprisingly peaceful.
It's long past time to rid ourselves of self-serving bellyachers like Trump and focus instead on the abundant strengths that make us, by a good bit, the best place to live in the world and the country with the brightest future.
This is standard demagoguery from a dictator wannabe. "Everything is going to hell and it's all the fault of (insert name of target group here). I alone can fix it. Blah, blah, blah." You heard it from every autocrat in history. The only thing that's surprising is how little the basic spiel changes.
.. and that it works on large fraction of Americans after 250/160/100 years of democarcay.
*democracy.
I think it works because many of the loudest voices on the Left say very similar things. Not to be bothsiderism, but the Dogma of Doom is certainly alive and well everywhere. I think the Dems are doing great to capture the sunny Reagan vibes.
Sorry, but it's not the same at all. Pointing out problems is not the same. Even wailing loudly about problems is not the same. What's different is:
1. blaming some "out" group for all the problems, and
2. asserting a messianic role in one's ability to solve the problems.
I can't recall anyone on the left fitting that description.
Its good work not to go back down the "basket of deplorables" line, but remember: if you believe abortion is murder, and there are millions who do, the US has been "in decline" ever since Roe, and is not back to where it should be since Roe was reversed as many states, as far as they are concerned, still allow "babies to be murdered."
There aren't like a thousand of such people, there are millions.
Trumps genius is he says America is in Decline to people who actually believe it is.
So not “deplorable”, just fucking stupid.
What’s the tangible difference?
Zilch
We have real problems, and the Democrats' program is not complete and probably has some less than perfect ideas.
Arguing about Donald Trump's cartoon universe crowds the real discussion out. His brand of stupidity is making us all a little more stupid.
Of course "we have real problems", and yes, "the Democrats' program is not complete and
probablycertainly has some less than perfect ideas". But Kevin's point is that nattering on and on about the "real problems" while making up several-fold times as many imaginary ones is absolutely not solving anything. It just makes people sad, bitter and subject to a sense of yawning helplessness.Huge swaths of America both believe and prefer this narrative. They know that it has always been true.
Nobody is forced into the Far Right gravitational field, most people jump eagerly.
I think you're wrong and have explained why but fuck it, lets do the hack gap. Until November yeah we are on the rise USA!
While generally on point, the ongoing comfortable Democrats denialism on inflaiton is rather politically autistic re : "Inflation is destroying our families."
The CPI inflation rate in July was 1.9%. Year-over-year it was 2.9% - with the rather self-harming ongoing denialism over the negative impact for certain socio-economic segments of the inflationary burst and the equally politically autistic 'false consciousness' discourse
As various reporting like in The Financial Times has highlighted (in a UK context but the lesson is useful), decomposing the components in inflation, there is a real basis for lower and fixed income reaction as certain product categories price inflation and wage changes were rather negatively distrubuted for them - while the comparatively comfortable professional class that dominates the modern Anglo Left had a more balanced experience.
That's not to say Trump's claims are well-founded, but the autism around inflation denialist / poo-pooing segment on the Left (in obvious defensive reaction on political basis) doesn't help. Harris seems to have a rather better response reflex, luckily (for all that the price proposition was in substance silly pandering, but some silly pandering in election campaigns can be a wise thing to do)
Generally the counterpoint involves employment, wage gains, health coverage and other asset/income type of improvements. These also had a large skew to them with lower and medium income families coming out ahead.
When thinking about how people are faring, you have to actually consider how they are faring. Plus, we have to avoid the trap of anecdotal stories standing in for averages/medians because they make for a more dramatic narrative.
Well of course one has to look at "actual" which is why Democrats engaging in inflation denialism and poo-pooing and generally taking an elitist "you just don't understand that the macro data says your life experience is wrong" is bad politics.
You arent making any sense.
If you truly think that the actual experience is important, you must consider the facts that show strong wage gains and other various income, asset and benefit related improvements.
But you make it clear that you arent actually interested in that. Instead, you only just want to scream at liberals for talking about these 'actuals' . Its not elitist to consider actual wage data along with actual inflation data.
Your angry, petulant, whiner act is tiresome.
1) Don't use the term 'autistic' in this inappropriate context;
2) The US and the UK are on different trajectories at this time;
3) I am a retiree; but about half my income (US Social Security) is adjusted to cost-of-living; pension income is fixed; investment income has been generally rising over the seven years since I retired, as one expects in a growing economy. However, that means I am old enough to remember the far higher and longer-lasting inflation of the 70's and 80's, so this episode doesn't seem particularly onerous to me. I wonder how others in my cohort see it.
4) I've frequently advocated for disaggregated data; for economic data, quantiles are often the best look. Kevin has presented data showing that lower-income quantiles in the US are doing better over recent years:
https://jabberwocking.com/raw-data-wage-growth-at-top-and-bottom/
https://jabberwocking.com/inflation-is-pretty-much-the-same-for-all-of-us/
Of course, there will always be those in the tails of any distribution.
(1) I shall use autistic as I bloody well so desire, having no patience for namby pamby bleeding heart Lefty-cultural twattery. Save your special Sensitivity blithering on for engaging in tedium with your own inwards looking autistic tribe natting on.
(2) the UK was an illustrative (as a recent FT article readily available), similar data exist for USA in differntiation, notably regionally and the lagging impact of real income pick-up had an clear sociopoltical effect.
In short, you idiots need to stop being so elite autistic in your communications, with Uni dorm room arch "correctives" and modernised-version of false consciousness narratives if you wish to stop losing / winning by skin of teeth.
JFC, Lounsbury, "autism" refers to a specific neurological condition; using it to describe some thing you don't like about how "the left" talks about inflation makes you look like an ignorant asshole, just the same as if you'd used words like "Down syndrome" instead.
And that's not just some "Uni dorm room Sensitivity"--autism has nothing to do with the concept you are flailing to convey; it's bizarre that you are aggressively doubling down on defending your inapt and confusing word choice.
+1
You made some excellent points.
And then you destroyed that good work with this childish, petulant and just flat out wrong rant.
Disappointing.
The proper response to this is:
What a wanker.
I'm in the retired cohort, too, and I vividly remember the late Carter and early Reagan era. In fact, I was the accounts payable clerk and, ipso facto, cash flow manager for a smallish natural foods wholesaler at the time. Interest rates were quite high -- we had a line of credit with a local business bank which carried 26% rate, compounded daily of course because of its use.
In those days "2% 10 Net 30" was a frequent discount offered in the wholesale business, which meant that a canny cash manager could make a pretty return by using some working capital to capture those discounts. If you can consistently turn over $10K in so doing you essentially make the $10K on the investment. Sweet.
But of course, that meant running the end of day cash balance pretty close to the ground, and making the call to the bank for a couple of thousand could put the kibosh on that month's returns and then some, depending on how soon the loan float could be repaid.
It was fun being a small bore rate swaps investor.....
When i began ,this comment was set to be in reply to Jen schukzThank you for your first point, in particular ; I'm glad I read down the comments instead of adding my objection immediately. Such misuse of words is demeaning.
Again, misplaced apparently due to extreme delay in this blog!
Yeah, it is in the toilet. ????
https://nypost.com/2024/08/22/us-news/toilet-paper-that-fell-out-of-nancy-pelosis-pants-on-dnc-stage-was-really-notes-source-says/
CHICAGO — Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has gone viral over what some suspected was toilet paper falling from her pants as she walked on stage Wednesday night at the Democratic National Convention — but a source tells The Post the rampant speculation is incorrect and that it was actually notes.
This is not a serious country. Life may be good for the me in the upper middle class, but this is no shining city on a hill. My MAGA neighbors are freaks. I can’t even talk to them. Don’t want to. They are not my fellow citizens and I have no interest in improving their lives.
"... that make us, by a good bit, the best place to live in the world and the country with the brightest future."
No - not by a long way. I'm an Australian living in Germany and there is NO WAY, I would choose to move to the USA.
For a start, there is your crazy constitution. Then there are guns everywhere, and like all countries you have your share of nutcases. Then there are those with "Libertarian" beliefs who want to poison everything and destroy democracy. And there is your insane weather. And the amazing ignorance of many of your inhabitants. And, and, and ....
. . . and healthcare.
Better, faster, cheaper, everywhere in the first world and a good part of the third world.
Unlikely to be faster in most of the world than for American's with money.
You've got a couple points, but I would hesitate to describe Australia and its bewildering array of ungodly and terrifying wildlife as preferable to the US. Also, libertarians take it too far, but Australia really went too far in restricting basic human rights like freedom of movement during the pandemic.
You have got to be kidding me. In the USA there are Grizzly Bears and Pumas. Australia has nothing like that.
Australia is home to no less than 145 species of venomous snakes, including 9 of the 10 most dangerous. More by far than any other country.
Have you actually been to Oz? Snakes generally get out of your way, and if you leave them alone, they will leave you alone. The one poisonous animal that is a serious nuisance are box jellyfish - which basically mean you should avoid swimming in the ocean in tropical Australia during the monsoon. But hardly anyone lives in tropical Australia. And why would you want to go there during the monsoon?
They live in Germany.
The problem with both "best place to live" and "no way I would choose the USA" is that there just isn't a singular USA experience.
5 years ago, I lived on the very edge of Philadelphia, in a leafy green middle class mixed age suburb with lots of kids, lots of orthodox Jews, and everything that Phila had to offer.
Now I live in a small village (250 mostly aging people) in rural New Mexico.
While some elements of my life are the same (mostly the good parts), others are completely different (including many of the bad parts of both places).
The idea that there is such as a thing as "what it is like to live in America" is just completely misleading before anyone even gets started on any particular version of that thing.
One quibble - not sure that judging the amount of drugs by weight is a good measure when one issue is the increased *potency* of illicit drugs...
Democrats: It was the best of times.
Trump: It was the worst of times, and only I could save them.
Media: Both parties lie.
Billionaires weigh in heavily on the "it's just a horse race" side to keep government divided and incapable of solving America's problems, so that they can keep the Reagan Ride going.
Lol, Trump and the MAGAts talk as if some middle management job at the local Ford dealership is suddenly taken by some Guatemalan asylum seeker and now Steve in parts and service won't get it (*sad trombone*). Or as if a bunch of blue-collar white guys were lining up to pick tomatoes in the 100-degree Florida heat for a few bucks an hour, but they bussed in a bunch of illegals who took all the jobs at the last minute (*sad trombone*).
What color is the sky in this world?
"Nobody can afford to eat bacon anymore!"
Bacon is widely available in the range of 4 to 6 dollars a pound.
Less if you make your own (like I do). It isn't hard.
I just don't have the space to grow my own pig.
"Less if you make your own (like I do). It isn't hard."
I'm very curious to learn how this could be true--unless you are already making bacon at, like, a volume large enough such that your own personal supply is just a cheap skim off the top of that, how can you produce bacon at sub-$4/lb prices?
I mean, given the average wage in this country, I don't see how it could be worth your _time_ to do it, let alone the cost of the materials and cleanup etc. But I don't know anything about pigs or butchery etc., so what's the secret?
The country has a large number of problems but in almost no case does Trump propose to fix them and in specific cases like climate change, he proposes to make the problems worse.
It's not just Trump, it's the whole Republican party. The House Republicans have been introducing legislation to ban energy-efficiency requirements in cars and household appliances. They don't even want to do the easy stuff.
Is there any other political party anywhere in the world that is actively promoting accelerating climate change by putting more greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere? Those people are friggin' weird.
Not so. Haven't you been paying attention? The problem is "those people". Trump will round them up in camps and deport them all. Henceforth there will be no unemployment, no crime, and everyone will fart perfume.
"And finally, with the usual exception of sub-Saharan Africa, the world is surprisingly peaceful."
Gaza
Ukraine
Uighur oppression
"Ours (problems) include climate change, Black education gaps, drug overdose deaths, teen depression, and a high national debt."
Gun violence
Climate change
Seems to me our #1 problem and #2 possibly #3 is homelessness.
#1 problem is definitely gun culture.
Only if you’re a fucking psycho maga tard
And that blanket dismissal is how Kevin can justify 200+ mile late/overnight astrophotography jaunts.
public service announcement: i don't expect anyone here to justify their life choices to me
????????????
+1
When they go on about how climate change is an urgent crisis, but do not themselves seem to do anything about it personally, they are very much fair game.
gotcha; personal action is the solution to every problem
maybe people should hang out at gas stations yelling at anyone filling their cars on the way to work
anyone who thinks russia's invasion of ukraine is wrong should pick up a gun and go to russia
if you see a pothole on the interstate you should put up a couple cones and toss in some asphalt
if you think a local church has its theology wrong you're obligated to stand on the sidewalk with a poster outlining their doctrinal errors
etc, etc, ...
Personal action is not sufficient, but it is necessary.
"how Kevin can justify 200+ mile late/overnight astrophotography jaunts"
Don't be shitty. Kevin is a senior citizen cancer patient who provides--for free!--an interesting, informative, and enjoyable blog that many people (you quite apparently included) get value from. God forbid the man have a hobby.
And, fwiw, we are not going to defeat climate change by shaming people out of doing things they enjoy. Kevin, his cats, and the entire readership of this blog could be Thanos-snapped right out of existence along with our personal carbon emissions, and it would make not one iota of difference in the global picture.
There are exactly two options: colossal human die-off and regression to a pre-industrial civilization, or transition to a zero-carbon global economy. I daresay that by advocating against the right wing and for a solutions-based lefty pragmatism, Kevin is doing--if not *all* that he could--a hell of a lot more than most to achieve that second path forward.
Really? What exactly has he done? Has he put solar panels on his roof? Has he switched to at least a hybrid automobile if not an EV? Has he replaced his furnace with a heat pump? Had he stopped cooking with gas?
Does he have an EV ?
LA's electricity is largely oil and gas fired. There's relatively little hydropower that far south. So an EV is a little better because of the solar farms, but not as good as in the Northwest.
Nobody but isolated islands makes electricity from oil.
In 2021 LA's electricty sources. (Including imported)
0.2% coal
6.2% large hydro
50.0% natural gas
8.5% nuclear
0.20% Petroleum/waste heat
2.8% biomass
5.7% Geo Thermal
1.3% small hydro
17.1% solar
7.8% wind
Renewables has likely increased since then.
The Bonneville Power Grid sells power, mostly hydro, to California. Some of the resulting revenue makes its way as far north as British Columbia.
wapo says:
The Wall Street Journal editorial page labeled her “the least known presidential nominee in modern times.”
well, if the wsj had spent a little less time fellating trump maybe they could have spared a few minutes to do a little actual journalism
but no matter; six months ago they wrote up a bunch of articles stating that biden is a lying commie fascist socialist authoritarian pedophile who shouldn't be within a thousand miles of the oval office
and through the magic of search/replace they'll just be redirected at harris
Why do lower-income whites vote for Trump, or actually for Republicans over the last 50+ years, when Republican economic policies and actions, including actual actions by Trump, are to their detriment? The simple and only answer is that Trump and Republicans have signaled that they support White Christian Supremacy.
MAGAs do not support Trump because they believe all his multiple lies, they claim to believe those lies and parrot them in polls and interviews because they are indicating their support for the White Christian tribe. Even on the right it is not accepted to admit to racism, so these other things provide false reasons or excuses for support of Trump.
Attacking the lies does not address the real reasons for MAGA support, but hopefully there will be effects on swing voters who are influenced by right-wing propaganda and the coverage of the MSM which has effectively reinforced that propaganda, emphasing Biden's age and the false perception that the economy is bad. Coverage has just not reflected the important issues, including Trump's increasing detachment from reality.
Now that Harris has replaced Biden the media seem to have made a major change - they run headlines and opeds about the speeches at the Democratic convention and represent Trump's absurd speeches more truthfully. This is a matter of the media's coverage, not some magical change in the attitude or capabilities of Democratic politicians.
"The simple and only answer"
Reductionism so often is!
"Even on the right it is not accepted to admit to racism, "
If you spend any time talking to MAGA people you will soon discover that racism is core to their whole belief structure (occasional exceptions notwithstanding). They'll never admit to it, but what used to be dog-whistled, Trump loudly blares through a megaphone, and they love it. That's a big part of his appeal - he gives them permission to express what they couldn't before. Culture (white Christian) is intertwined with this, so delineating "those people" who are trying to destroy America is flexible. It's all an exercise in dividing people into "in groups" and "out groups", the latter of which are to be suppressed or eliminated.
Minor correction to an otherwise great post, Kevin. When Trump talks about "illegals" taking 100% of the jobs he has, on multiple occasions, said they are, in fact, taking substantially more than 100% of the jobs. "Illegals" taking more jobs than have been created is truly a scandal of epic proportions!
Seen on the internet,
https://i.redd.it/8un1ilrtkbkd1.jpeg
Yeah Kevin, Make America Grateful Again!
The problem with this and all your subsequent counterpoints to Trump's blather is that there are way too many low information people that are viewing the world through a very different lens. They get their information casually from social media, fox news, etc. They do NOT pay attention. They do not discern. Critical thinking skills are lacking. Trump's lies are not lies to them. Finding a way to change THAT is the huge challenge.
"We conquered COVID" is real Earth 2 stuff, Kevin. A million cases a day, right now. Over 1000 died last week. In summer.
Psycho shit