Germany is ordering new coronavirus lockdowns:
"We are in a very, very serious situation" due to the spread of coronavirus variants in the country, Merkel told the press conference.
"What we have is essentially a new pandemic," she said. The new virus is "significantly more deadly, significantly more infectious."
"It really makes you a bit wistful about what we could have already achieved," Merkel said. She added that the mutated virus has now "basically eaten up" earlier gains.
Here's the situation in Germany:
That might not look like much when it's spread out like that, but it represents about a 60% increase since March 1. Europe as a whole is up about 25% over the same period.
Unfortunately, this is partly a result of Germany's own self-centered—but typical—response to concerns over the AstraZeneca vaccine. Without bothering to coordinate or even investigate the true risks, they suspended use of the AZ vaccine a week ago thanks to a panic over supposed blood clotting side-effects. Other countries then felt compelled to follow suit lest they appear to be less vigilant than Germany. Four days later the whole thing evaporated in a puff of smoke. It took no more than a cursory investigation to demonstrate that the AZ vaccine was perfectly safe.
But I imagine the damage was done. Now everyone is suspicious of the AZ jab, and that's likely to reduce its use all over Europe. This is devastating on a continent that's already suffering from a horribly botched vaccine rollout.
Every country puts itself first, so it's nothing against Germany that they do the same. But it sure seems like they overdo things on this front. From their response to the Great Recession to the elimination of nuclear plants so they could keep burning coal; from the admission of millions of refugees with no regard to its effect on European politics to their insistence on building a direct gas pipeline to Russia; and finally to this latest fiasco, they seem to have no regard at all for the rest of Europe.
I don't know if this is typical of Germany or typical of Angela Merkel. A bit of both, I suppose, but it's one reason I've never been able to join in the praise of Merkel as one of the world's great leaders. Generally speaking, I think she's been something of a disaster.
POSTSCRIPT: Just in case I have to acknowledge the obvious, the United States is no great shakes on this score either. That doesn't change Merkel's record, though.
A Good read, well written with feeling...and very different than what the conventional wisdom with regard to Ms. Merkel is...but I think you caught her just right, like a butterfly stuck for study on a black silk screen, (whatever that may mean; sometimes my words run away with themselves...beyond my control...lol)
A good, smart read, thanks...Best Wishes, Traveller
There is a study -- https://bityl.co/65kH -- that purports to have identified the link between the vaccine and blood clots. They believe that the vaccine triggered a specific antibody that is responsible for the clot response.
Ultimately, every country has to make its own decision on the relative risks, but, that's not as easy a decision to make as you seem to suggest.
If further research can confirm the pathway linkage, not pausing the vaccine rollout would be detrimental to public confidence in the government's care of its citizens. People will ask if their government is covering up other serious side effects or if it approved a vaccine without sufficient evidence that it was safe.
As observed in much of Asia, it is possible to have very low vaccine rates *but* also very low infection rates, which somewhat obviates a rush to vaccinate everyone. All you need to do is give out free masks to everyone and mandate it.
Exactly. And as I note below, Germany wasn't even the first country to pause its usage.
I would go even further that the pause was only a couple of days, a calculated move to mollify the BILD readers without really putting a brake on vaccinations. There weren't enough doses to go around before, and this way a portion of trust could be restored after the media hype.
If the studies underscore our understanding of blood clotting then the studies are worth it whether we approve the AZ vaccine or not. Over 8 million Americans take blood clotting prescription medicines with others taking medicines that are non prescription but also affect clotting like aspirin.
A greater understanding COULD result in better treatment or eventually a cure for clotting issues
But the AZ story is bothersome because it points to both the pitfall and the promise of Operation Warp speed which was put in place solely to fast track COVID treatments. Are we willing to accept 70% to 79% efficiency in treating COVID along with several HUNDRED deaths associated with vaccinating the population against COVID? Or is the lessened efficiency and risk not worth it?
Given that NONE of the vaccines CURE Covid but allow for temporary build up of antibodies the best we can hope for is to get COVID somewhat under control. But even THIS is made worse by anti vaxxers and people who are just anti anything Joe Biden could get credit for...........
One thing that is not being discussed too much is how masking, social distancing and increased cleaning has drastically reduced both the number and cases of flu this year. I don't understand the how any adult can be against preventing sickness in their own families and friends by doing simple things like mask wearing.
Merkel really pulled a fast one on the rest of Europe in that whole Ukraine episode. They got a 2nd pipeline and Eastern Europe got screwed.
Germany will screw every other country in europe just like they did Greece. Britain was right not to give up the pound.
If you are talking about NorthStream2, that was Merkel's predecessor who signed the deal, and that was after Western Europe got a scare from Russia cutting off all gas delivery through Ukraine. Gerhard Schroeder then ended up joining GazProm and makes no secret of his buddy relationship with Putin, much to the detriment of the SPD.
The really ironic part is that the pipeline isn't needed any more, as Germany is buying less and less gas. The only real reason why construction is still going on is because hey, it's local jobs. No one wants to see the construction companies suddenly lose business.
"The only real reason why construction is still going on is because hey, it's local jobs. No one wants to see the construction companies suddenly lose business."
Joe Biden does.
Certainly Merkel deserves some criticism for various things over the years, but this analysis contains a number of errors.
After various reports of deaths from blood clotting after administering the AstraZeneca vaccine, the countries which first paused its usage were Denmark, Norway, and Iceland. Merkel only stopped its usage afterwards as a response to the political pressure from the growing public unease about the vaccine that resulted from its stoppage in those other countries. I personally would have preferred that she had maintained usage while explaining to the public how statistically small the risk was (especially compared to the high risk of greater coronavirus infections), but she was forced to respond by the other European countries' actions, not the other way around.
The acceptance of refugees into Germany was the absolute correct thing to do in order to deal with an acute, humanitarian crisis, and though highly criticized within Germany at the time, public opinion afterwards shifted strongly in favor of the decision. What the crisis revealed (again) is how weak the federal authority of the EU is in forcing member compliance of EU-wide measures. That is sadly a built-in failure of the EU's construction and not specifically something of which Merkel is responsible.
Kevin, I also think you fail to appreciate just how anti-nuclear the German public is. Much of this is no doubt a consequence of the Chernobyl disaster, which in the US is largely misunderstood just how big of a deal that was in central Europe. Note that Germany isn't alone in this: Belgium, Italy, and Switzerland are all in the process of decommissioning nuclear reactors as well. The phase-out of nuclear is all a part of a general shift to renewables -- also under Merkel's leadership -- which will eventually include a phase-out of coal-burning plants by 2038.
Thank you for this. I usually appreciate Kevin’s reflections, but this particular one appears to suffer from a lack of insight in not only German but European affairs and circumstances, perhaps also different cultural and viewpoint aspects. Europe simply does not work like the US, in so many ways.
Kevin does not recognise either that Germany & Europe have a strong anti-vax sentiment , though more from the left than the right. The blood clts were a godsend to the anti-vaxxers & confidence had to be rebuilt somehow.
Thanks for this.
I'd like to add that while Germany decommissioned nuclear reactors, it also invested heavily in renewable energy.
in 2020, nuclear energy generated 12.6% of Germany's electricity, and brown and hard coal together 24.3%. Wind and Solar together generated 37.7% of Germany's electricity, and if you add Hydro and Biomass (I realise some people don't count those two as true renewables), then Solar + Wind + Biomass + Hydro generated 50.9% of Germany eletricity (the remaining 12.2 % was Natural Gas. Source: Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Germany .
As mentioned, coal power will be phased out in Germany by 2038. Basically, this is a good thing to come out of the Merkel era.
and if you add Hydro and Biomass (I realise some people don't count those two as true renewables)
Why isn't hydro considered by some people not to be a true renewable?
You're handwaving past a lot of the criticisms:
1. Germany was forced to do something by Denmark, Norway, and Iceland? Really? If Germany had adopted Sweden's disastrous approach, would you have said they were forced by Sweden? Germany is the dominant European power -- no one's forcing it to do anything.
2. Was Merkel somehow not aware of the EU's weakness in the refugee crisis? You can't excuse her for not taking into account a factor she absolutely should have known.
3. So Merkel did decommission nuclear power plants which led to coal plants being used heavily but sometime in the future those coal plants will be decommissioned as well? That's the argument you want to go with?
This is kinda hilarious given AZ isn't even approved for us in the US yet, while it is in Europe, but Kevin is saying Europe is the reason people are "suspicious". LOL. Where is Kevin getting all his news from these days, der Stormer?
Ok - some random thoughts on the AZ vaccine
Originally Brazil, the UK and South African countries DID study the AZ vaccine and found it to be "about" 70% effective.
Is it just me or is the "about 70% effective" seem low by the rates of other vaccines?
Once that study was done AZ themselves came out with a clarification that said it was 79% effective. Still very low
Now we find that the AZ vaccine triggers clotting issues in "some" people. OK, here I am a bit prejudiced as I have had clotting issues myself - caused by 5 operations on my knees. Knee surgery seems to be a prime cause of blood clots. I had 3 issues with DVT blood clots that has lead me to have a cot filter installed.
So I have a deep fear of ANY chances of blood clots increasing..........
But, it appears as though 3 different countries found 70% effectiveness, then the company itself which has large profit $ associated with developing this drug comes out and says it's actually 79% effective and the U.S. is now saying more study needs to be done as the AZ study used flawed data.
Correct me if I'm wrong here but when we have Moderna, J&J, and Pfizer vaccines available that are MORE effective and provide LESS side effects - why are we even talking about AZ vaccines at this point?
"about 70%" is just about the efficiency of the J & J vaccine. So if one is acceptable so is the other.
For epidemiologists 70% is probably a bit low. For people seeking protection for themselves and their loved ones 70% is an awful lot better than 0%. More than that: All vaccines for which we have data practically guarantee that you won't have to go to the hospital or die if you still catch the disease. BFD.
Flu shot is 45% measeles is 98%.
Also note the efficacy was base on no symptoms. The remaining percentage was symptoms of varying severity which were all made more mild. So AZ and J&J makes you more likely to feel sick but even then you will most likely feel like you have a cold or mild flu at worst.
So better than death.
The AstraZeneca vaccine is 70-79% (depending upon study) effective at preventing mild to moderate cases of covid. It's 90-100% effective at preventing serious cases, hospitalizations, and death. The Pfizer and Moderna trials only looked at efficacy against serious cases; that was deliberate, because studying efficacy against mild cases would have meant a longer delay before the trial was complete, and the vaccines approved. This is a critical distinction that often gets elided in discussions of vaccine efficacy. You have to make sure that you are comparing the same efficacy rates for each vaccine, or it's misleading.
Sorry
Here's the link
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/astrazeneca-covid19-vaccine-data_n_60599898c5b66a80f4ea5434
Well Crap...there are Again flaws in the submitted AZ data, apparently. This is becoming embarrassing. See here at Bloomberg:
"AstraZeneca Plc’s Covid-19 vaccine encountered a fresh setback after health officials indicated that promising U.S. trial results may give an “incomplete” view of the shot’s efficacy.
In a brief statement last night, the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases said the independent panel charged with ensuring the safety and accuracy of the vaccine trial had expressed concern that results included outdated information.
The institute, headed by Anthony Fauci, urged AstraZeneca to work with the data and safety monitoring board to “ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible.”"
********************
Vog46 has a point...except for national pride, why are we talking about AZ.
It also should be notable that Pfizer's partner is BioNTech who is fully German.
Courisier
The most alarming thing Merkel said is the one thing Kevin didn’t focus on. The EU is seeing surges everywhere, and Merkel is saying it is due to the new variant. Astra Zeneca vaccines have been delayed din Europe since January, as this AP report outlines, over contractual deficiencies. https://apnews.com/article/europe-ursula-von-der-leyen-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-90aa79556ad57469f12baa108df91a57
It is not so simple.
As a Yankee living in Germany, I think the thing to remember here is that the German response on the federal level is hemmed in by the EU on one side, and the state governments on the other. As a federation, Germany has clear constitutional divisions between federal and state level responsibilities, and the response in Germany does reflect that. Ordering the vaccine was a Europe-wide job, and Germany felt that going it alone would not be as effective since new cases could then come in over the French, Italian, Polish borders. Even now, the main surges are along the Czech border.
Vaccination in places like the USA and the UK is doing better because those countries took a, well, selfish approach. AZ was already in bad press for stiffing Europe and selling to the higher bidding Brits. The USA was also hoarding vaccines so much that it was a big deal that Biden was going to allow excess doses to go to Canada and Mexico after all.
I'm also going to ding you on the nuclear power over coal thingy, as Merkel was trying to slow-walk a decision to get out of atomic power that Schroeder's government made. It took Fukishima to get the decision back on track, as Germany still has no "final tomb" for the atomic waste. All that radioactive garbage is sitting in storage, waiting.
Really, Dr. Merkel is a typical German conservative, prone to waiting things out and hoping everything blows over before she has to do anything. It paid off for her in the past, it just remains to be seen if it will cost her party the upcoming elections in September (she's retiring, so lame duck rules apply).
This fellow expat in Deutschland concurs with everything you wrote.
Stiffing Europe? From whence came the vaccine AZ distributes? My understanding is it came out of Oxford. Has anything come out of the Pasteur Institute or it’s German equivalent if there is one?
Well, if you want to go down that route, BioNTech is a German company which the Robert Koch Institut did support for years. And AstraZenica has manufacturing plants in Europe, not just in the UK.
I think the part you are missing is that AZ underdelivered, and admitted that it did sell shipments that the EU had already paid for to the UK because of a secret deal. This was particularly irksome because the EU was one of the first to order before the vaccine was proven, and for putting their trust in AZ they ended up holding the bag, forced to wait.
The end result now is that the EU is banning all export of components from AZ to Britain until Britain stops hoarding on their side.
Apparently it's exported to the UK from Belgium and the Netherlands.
As for the German equivalent vaccine that would be BioNTech. developed with German and EU taxpayer money and distributed around the world by Pfizer
"The USA was also hoarding vaccines so much that it was a big deal that Biden was going to allow excess doses to go to Canada and Mexico after all."
The USA *may* loan Canada and Mexico some of the AZ vaccines (the US has 30 million in stock and it isn't approved yet). So far Canada and Mexico have gotten their vaccines from Europe because the US doesn't deliver to it's neighbours.
"I don't know if this is typical of Germany or typical of Angela Merkel."
Given our anti-vax movement and Republican Covid denialism, I am pretty confident that if we were in a similar situation, it would have played out as badly, or worse. It didn't impact us much because it already wasn't approved here, and we have enough vaccine that we don't need it. If we were relying on AZ, it would be a madhouse.
(NIAID just this morning released a statement that some of the data AZ included about the vaccine was outdated, which doesn't mean it's not a safe, effective vaccine but WILL help sow more doubt, so we're not doing Europe a lot of favors here. Nor is AZ's sloppiness in the approval process.)
I have found that whenever a mistake is chalked up to some variation of "national character", it's usually the wrong (or oversimplified) explanation. Differences exist, but broadly speaking, in the modern world we're all equally incompetent.
Germany is tottering on the brink of an election for a new chancellor, & the far right candidate is posef to triumph.
I see no problems here.
*poised, NOT posef
Still, almost seems like your spellink was kompromat 🙂
Which far-right candidate are you talking about? Armin Laschet? He's a moderate conservative. His CSU rival Markus Söder may test the right-wing waters more, but he's also mostly a run of the mill type for the CDU/CSU.
Olaf Scholz is pretty rightwing as far as the SPD goes, but that still puts him to the left of Laschet, Söder, and even Bernie Sanders. The Greens haven't announced their candidate yet, but it looks like it's going to be Annalena Baerbock.
If anything, the AfD may end up losing a few seats this time around, as the pandemic suddenly reminded people of why we need competent politicians instead of just spite voting.
Everybody knows that the FDA is not easy to fool. Yet people keep trying. Just remember Purdue Pharma. They had "data" that "proved" that their slow release formula would lower the risk of addiction. And FDA let them pull the wool over their eyes and approved the drug. The rest of the story is not pretty. FDA ought to have been sued along with the industry.
But in general trying to fool FDA is a bad idea. Which AZ ought to have known.
as some already commented on this I just confirm that Mrs Merkel policy is to not take a decision and wait for the problems to fade away. This has been called wise.. and is seen as such in Germany. Otherwise Mrs Merkel tends to have a totally mercantile approach toward international problems. What benefit the German economy is good even if that means selling off to very ugly regimes. This attitude is the side effect on the German psyche of the deliberate policy to not be a voice on the international scene in an effort to attune the perception of WW2 Germany with foreigners. What scares me a bit is the totally unilateral moves, on Nuclear and Immigration being the latest exemple were Mrs Merkel made her move without regard at all on the direct impact on Germany direct neighbors.
Many of the things KD complains about AM’s policies can actually be construed as pro-German instead of Pro-European. From this perspective her energy policies and immigration policies help Germany.
Isn't there an old joke to the effect that Angela Merkel is luck that the bar for worst German leader is set really, really low?