Are we at the start of a big ol' bull market? Maybe. But I'm skeptical of the hype:
Since the beginning of the year the S&P 500 has been virtually flat—right until the beginning of June. Then it started to surge a bit, but even at that it's grown only 8.5% on a real basis since January 1. Not bad, but three weeks is hardly something to bet the ranch on. Stay cool.
P:E ratios are still high. The recent ability to raise prices and increase margins has helped a bit--but there's only so much that can be squeezed out of consumers. The wealth gap really inhibits growth.
May I suggest an overlay of the 3-month volatility index over the S&P500 through a longer horizon to see how the two interplay?
I'd be interested in the details on your inflation adjustment. What I get is a 13% rise in the S & P 500 since the beginning of the year, unadjusted, and I figure inflation has amounted to 2% over the January-to-June timespan. That leaves the real increase at around 11%. That's on top of a nearly 7% gain between October 2022 and the end of 2022. Seems bullish enough to me.
The June surge has only been 4%, by the way. There was plenty of gaining going on in the months before, with some hot streaks and some cool ones, but climbing overall.
If you are going to adjust for inflation then you need to also adjust it for dividends.
Right now, without the dividends, your chart is worthless.
This is an excellent point. During the "lost decade" following the financial crisis, you still made money in the stock market through dividends, even though returns were relatively flat.
It's all about inflation. If it continues to fall me may skirt a recession and actually grow again
To be clear, my guess is no better than the next. With that said, I am very bearish...
It is stupid to speculate about market direction! Just keep investing over the course of your career -- https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio