On Thursday morning the BEA will announce its first estimate of GDP growth in Q2. Here is the Atlanta Fed's final model-driven forecast:
The blue chip forecast from human beings is 1.8%. By the time most of you read this we should know who got closer.
Atlanta hit it on the head! 2.8%
SAD
Wowzer. That's REALLY strong. Looks like that Biden economy is just humming along.
It was a mistake for Biden to drop out. He is responsible for our strong economy.
Yes, and on some alternate earth, Americans are in touch with reality and are enthusiastic about the economy. Here in Moronistan, millions of people think we’re in a recession.
From an article in The Guardian:
“We expect a slowdown from here,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics told clients earlier this week, “driven by the mounting pressure from high interest rates, which likely are only now starting to exert their full impact on the real economy, given the long lags involved.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/25/june-inflation-interest-rates
Would like to see their track record for prediction.
Ah, here’s their chief economist in April 2023, predicting a recession. Swing and a miss.
Sorry, link: https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-2023-indicators-unemployment-economist-who-called-2008-shepherdson-2023-4?r=US&IR=T
Those guys in Atlanta are looking pretty smart today.
Does anybody track how bad the blue chip consensus is each quarter?