The St. Louis Fed's GDP Nowcast is forecasting that GDP growth in Q2 will be 0.28%. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is forecasting growth of 2.1%. Big difference! So who's right?
No offense to the St. Louis folks, but it looks like the Atlanta forecast has a considerably better recent track record. GDP growth in Q2 is likely to be OK.
Inflation going down and GDP ok---what's a Fed to do?
Probably raise rates....
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OT.
Biden has already given a red line to Putin which would trigger an Article 5 and the involvement of conventional US forces: nuclear fallout reaching a NATO member.
That guarantee should weigh heavily against the use of explosives at the one ZNPP unit which remains in operation or the use of tactical nukes.
In an important way, Ukraine is already partially protected by Article 5 without being in NATO.
You would think by now that the St. Louis fed would be copying Atlanta's homework.
But I do wonder if this is intentional? Like is St. Louis tasked with taking into account a different set of data?
I would hope there's a real paper doing an in-depth analysis somewhere. Here's a very brief partial explanation:
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/10/nowcasts-compared
From the Atlanta fed: "GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. "
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow