A few days ago I mentioned that Joe Biden had pulled ahead of Donald Trump in national polling. Today brings news that he's doing better in swing states too:
Joe Biden had some good news on Tuesday as polling showed him gaining on Donald Trump in six battleground states, seven months before the presidential election. In response, one leading Democratic strategist said the “Biden bump is real”.
According to Bloomberg News and Morning Consult, Biden now leads Trump by a point in Wisconsin, having trailed by four last month, and is tied in Pennsylvania, where Trump had a six-point lead last month. The two candidates were also tied in Michigan.
We still have a long way to go before the election, but Biden is finally turning things around a bit. Cross your fingers and hope he keeps it up.
Trump never had a 6 point lead in PA. Maybe just in one poll. And the poll Kevin writes about is just one poll. Averages are much more meaningful.
Still, my sense is that Biden has made some headway. It's not enough yet, but I hope it will continue.
One reason it might is that Trump is saying things which might sound outlandish even to some of the less demented MAGA Republicans. For example, attacking Judge's Merchan's daughter because he is going to be on trial in Merchan's court.. And perhaps the only persons MAGA enough for Trump are, Marjorie T Greene, Kari Lake and Sam Alito. Everyone else gets taken to task for not being MAGA enough.
Maybe by election day, enough people will think, "maybe we better not take that chance".
Yes, it's early, and yes, a lot is yet to happen, and yes, no one knows for sure what that will be.
But I think we may be on the verge of witnessing a collapse of a presidential candidate unlike anything anyone has seen before. It's all falling apart. The incoherent ramblings. The exhaustion and desperation. The nonstop pressure cooker of 91 felony counts and extraordinary hits to his finances and business holdings. The daily reminders that everybody hates him, even those who pretend he's their man.
Throughout his life Trump never paid the price for his transgressions, and since he entered politics people have come to expect that he'll wriggle his way out of whatever mess he's in. But there comes a time when everything turns.
No one wants to tune in to the show anymore. The only drama is when the plug gets pulled.
This is a social media post he sent today:
The lights are flashing red and the sirens are blaring. The man needs an intervention. I can't imagine how he endures until November.
"i think it's hard for us political nuts to really understand how very little attention the vast majority of people pay to politics and elections. "
Trump is always talking about how everything he does is like nothing we've ever seen before. Hopefully on this count it will actually be true.
“But there comes a time when everything turns.”
Only if you believe in fairy tales. Lots of rich powerful fucks in history escaped consequences for all the bad shit they did.
Beware of self-fulfilling prophecies. If I act based on the assumption that I'll lose, then I lose. And that ain't no fairy tale my friend.
Like +10!
I sincerely hope so: "we may be on the verge of witnessing a collapse of a presidential candidate unlike anything anyone has seen before. . . . The daily reminders that everybody hates him, even those who pretend he's their man."
It's funny (not funny) that djt has amplified and unleashed hate so thoroughly--the racists and other haters are way more brazen and menacing, but also, sadly, many kindhearted people have learned more about hate, have felt it more, because what other response is there to that sleazy goon and his minions?
The first one then is on his way to being last, the slow one then is now going fast, and the times they are a-changin' ... a few decades late, but better late than never.
Both candidates are well known, so the common wisdom is that there isnt much that can alter the current state of polling.
But I cant shake the notion that the American public doesnt yet view Trump as the guy who ended Roe and the guy who wants to take away even more reproductive and healthcare rights. If the average voter does finally make this realization, Biden should cruise to an easy victory and perhaps give the Democrats a comfortable margin in the House as well.
the American public doesnt yet view Trump as the guy who ended Roe and the guy who wants to take away even more reproductive and healthcare rights.
I dunno. I rather think most Americans in fact are aware the GOP is the party that wants to ban abortion and many forms of birth control.
If the average voter does finally make this realization, Biden should cruise to an easy victory
I've long regarded Biden as the favorite (albeit a modest one), but "easy" victory seems unlikely. There's just not a lot of evidence Trump's share of the two party vote is likely to drop much below 47% or so, and that's taking into consideration post-Dobbs polling. The reality is that the overwhelmingly majority (no, not "all" but "most") of regular GOP voters (and even a fair number of persuadables) are either OK with a serious evisceration of reproductive rights or value other issues (tax cuts say, or immigration restrictionism) more.
If the election is colored by a hue similar to the elections we've seen since Dobbs, Biden will indeed win. But it won't even approach, say, Clinton's 1996 EV total, and Democrats are incredibly unlikely to hold their Senate majority.
(Mind you, I meant what I wrote earlier about Biden being the favorite; and I do think Dems will take back the House in the wake of a Biden win, as well as make other, downticket gains. And I think it's possible they could flip 2-3 states and add them to Joe's 2020 total. It's just not going to be one of those "foregone conclusion" elections we used to regularly have; it'll be a stomach turner until election day, and yes, the GOP is going to re-take the Senate.)
Maybe, but I think that a surprisingly large number of people (who arent tuned into politics as entertainment but still vote) dont think Donald is anti-abortion and will further restrict womens healthcare if elected.
Anecdata perhaps...but ive been surprised by many conversations over the last year or so. Polling seems to support this notion as well.
Its wrong to assume that potential voters understand all the nuances.
Maybe, but I think that a surprisingly large number of people (who arent tuned into politics as entertainment but still vote) dont think Donald is anti-abortion and will further restrict womens healthcare if elected.
Really? I've seen no evidence of this.
Democrats have been doing well in most elections since Dobbs. That's a good sign—but it also suggests lots of voters are in fact knowledgable about the politics of abortion. On the other hand turnout tends to be much higher in presidential elections than in midterms or special elections, and this now likely hurts Democrats in presidential years (in contrast to what used to be the case, say, 20+ years ago), because Dems rely heavily on college-educated voters.
So yes, I stand by what I wrote: there's not much evidence of a coming "easy" win for Biden and Democrats, although I do think most of the fundamentals favor them. And I think they Kennedy factor is potentially a big danger.
You are misstating my argument.
It can be true that some/many voters currently see the Republican party as anti-abortion but do not also see Trump as anti-abortion.
That voters have voted for Dems in recent house/senate elections in part due to abortion policy does not mean that likely voters currently see Trump as a threat to abortion/healthcare.
Trump has received a lot of friendly coverage that paints him as a moderate on abortion. That seems to be reflected in some of thr polling on the issue. Voters see a generic GOP candidate as a bigger threat to abortion than they do Trump.
If Biden can change the perception of the many people who value womens healthcare but do not currently see Trump as a threat to womens healthcare.....there is a lot of upside for Biden. That is all. How big of an upside is there...i have no idea.
You are misstating my argument. It can be true that some/many voters currently see the Republican party as anti-abortion but do not also see Trump as anti-abortion.
I'm not "mistaking" your argument. I just think it doesn't hold water. Trump, now eight years after taking control of the Republican Party, has been thoroughly branded as "GOP" in the minds of most voters. Or, more precisely, the GOP has been thoroughly branded as the "party of Trump/MAGA." Thus, there's just not a lot of confusion out there among the electorate as to what a Trump victory means in terms of reproductive rights.
As I wrote at the outset, an election colored like the several, post-Dobbs backlash contests would probably result in a victory for Joe Biden. I just see no evidence it's likely to result in an "easy" or particularly big victory for Democrats, especially in light of the fact that turnout will certainly be higher than any of the post-Dobbs elections we've seen so far.
These are the same voters who seem to believe the Oval Office has a Lower Prices Now button alongside the Increase Employment lever. George Carlin never gets old: “think about how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of people are stupider than that.”
Trends are more important than actual numbers at this point, and all the trends are pointing in the right direction. And Biden is just beginning to fight. Biden's money is going to campaigning and Trump's to keep him out of court until November.
Trump getting a break on his bond is going to irritate a large percentage of the people who are paying attention. They know they would never get such kid glove treatment.
Trump getting a break on his bond is going to irritate a large percentage of the people who are paying attention.
What'll really cheese off normie voters is if Trump makes a big score on his stock market flotation and then small investors are left holding the bag. It doesn't appear to be settled yet as to when he's allowed to start selling. "Sooner" is obviously better than "later" for him given the stock's absurd overvaluation and the short-sellers smelling chum in the water. But a real time example of Just Plain Folks being suckered by this crook could hurt the MAGA cause.
People may believe that "they would never get such kid glove treatment" but they don't KNOW it. The fact is that New York courts have reduced appeal bonds for lots of appellants before Trump and will reduce appeal bonds for lots of appellants after Trump. I haven't reviewed cases in which others have been granted, or refused, a reduction so I have no idea whether Trump is receiving special treatment or not.
"And Biden is just beginning to fight."
This was the part that I always thought of when the "Oh no! Biden stands no chance and should withdraw now." doomsayers let loose. You don't lose the election in January, you lose it in September. Ask Michael Dukakis.
There is no positive trend for Biden in the swing states.
Wisconsin - Trump +2 with Kennedy, Biden +1 without Kennedy
Michigan - Trump +3 with Kennedy, tie without Kennedy
Pennsylvania - Trump +7 with Kennedy, tie without Kennedy
Georgia - Trump +6 with or without Kennedy
Nevada -Trump +5 with Kennedy, Trump +2 without Kennedy
Kennedy will likely become more popular, not less.
Kennedy is the X factor, and has to be a real worry for Team Biden. I'm finding it a bit perplexing that RFKJR seems to hurt Biden more than Trump, given that his stock in trade is junk science and vaccine quackery. But the polls seem to be pretty persistent. And unlike other third party candidates who have faded badly in past cycles, Kennedy has massive name recognition.
Until he opens his mouth on national TV. Kennedy is surging purely on the name. Nothing he actually says appeals to Biden voters.
I’d like to see data on why people express a preference for RFK Jr. Any third-party candidate will get some support from people who don’t like either the R or D candidate, and there is definitely polling showing that there are a significant number of them this year. Some of these people will eventually realize that RFK Jr. has no chance of winning, or even polling more than a minute percentage; they might grudgingly vote for a candidate with a chance, or just stay home. Third-party candidates typically fade: https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/17/politics/third-parties-elections-what-matters/index.html
Writing from Michigan, a state led by several powerhouse women who are brilliant and hellbent on saving democracy. (Tricky situation re. Rashida Tlaib, who was able to win her seat--John Conyers's old seat!--in an overcrowded field. Then redistricting happened, and her district changed considerably. She is not one of the powerhouses I was talking about--not our best rep. But a different Palestinian American, yes.)
As for RFJ Jr., like a letter writer to the Detroit Free Press put it the other day, if someone tells you they're voting third party--"on principle" or any other bogus reason--just say, "Just vote for djt then because that's all you're doing." Can refine and make it quippier, but having a quick, sharp comeback (without rage!) will be handy. It's really unfortunate that Joe Rogan appeals to so many young white male Americans who think--who know--they're smarter than everyone else and think RFK Jr. is legit and cool. Ugh.
Kennedy will definitely not get more popular. This is likely his peak. 3rd party candidates always lose support as the election gets closer. And guarantee you that 80% of the people saying they will support Kennedy know nothing about him other than his famous name.
There is no way one can know this is Kennedy's peak. and your 80% figure comes out of thin air. Perot ended up getting 19% of the vote in 1992 and likely cost Bush the election.
I've heard a lot of people talk about the 1992 election. I've heard a lot of people talk about Perot. I've never heard any of them say it likely cost Bush the election.
Perot had polled at 39% in June of 1992, so he lost half his support by Election Day. (Wikipedia)
The Trump machine and reliable bot roboto are going to be hyping Kennedy all summer as a popular alternative to Biden.
Few Biden voters will find interest in Kennedy's take on the issues, but Trump and his reliable messengers will insist otherwise. Expect to see lots of Trump sponsored polls attempting to sell this story.
Keep in mind that Biden will be six months older in September. Is ageing will look much worse than Trump or RFK Jr's coming six months.
Keep telling yourself that.
TFG’s mental issues will have progressed six months by Election Day.
More popular? Are you kidding? Non-major party candidate who poll well in the spring of an election decline in the polls by the fall as voters basically decide, even if they don't like it, between the two major party candidates likely to win Kennedy faces this same outcome, so his seven percent now, or whatever it is, is going to shrink to almost nothing by election day. Not to mention the fact his VP candidate was basically chosen to fund his campaign, especially for ballot access, all but precluding any candidacy on the LP ticket (otherwise he wouldn't have chosen her.) Indeed, picking someone, essentially of the elite, sent a lot of his support scurrying away yesterday, presumably back to Trump.
I think Biden can win but it will be close and no one should be delusional about it and it will come down to to basically six states: Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina (instead of Georgia), Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
"picking someone, essentially of the elite, sent a lot of his support scurrying away yesterday, presumably back to Trump."
What about the so-called tech bros who are all in for RFK Jr. (or supposedly are)? Will having a female running mate dent their enthusiasm?
Arizona - Trump +6 with or without Kennedy
North Carolina - Trump +6 with or without Kennedy
I think Biden can win but it will be close and no one should be delusional about it...
Also my take.
Source, roboto?
Stop saying anything that reduces to "the American people will ultimately save themselves". 1980 says otherwise, in a voice so loud that it will never fade.
I always hated Reagan but comparing this election to 1980 is just not reasonable. Trump and Reagan have very little in common. I mean say what you want about Reagan, he didn't lead an attack on the US Congress and he had significantly fewer indictments than Trump.
This. TFG is beyond. Different in kind
This. TFG is beyond. Different in kind
I think there's a pretty strong case the US electorate is likewise "different in kind." I mean, this electorate has given Trump very nearly half the major party vote two elections in a row.
Please let this not be just a bump but a huge run on winning! Vote blue folks.
Ultimately, what is Kennedy's campaign about anyways? Hmm? Nobody should be getting vaxxed? What? Running against the establishment? Then why pick someone who is tech. billionaire to run on the same ticket instead of say, another ex-Democrat in Tulsi Gabbard (because she has no money) like himself or Aaron Rodgers or Jesse Ventura outside the mainstream? After a while people are going to realize there's no there there other than his last name and will react accordingly, and abandon it.
…..trump and Republicans prove almost daily that most Americans can’t trust them to govern..