In order to blow off our free trade pact with Canada and Mexico, Donald Trump has to find some kind of national security pretext. That's the loophole. This is why he's been so careful to stick to the script that it's all about fentanyl and illegal immigrants.
This is ridiculous, but it's especially super duper ridiculous in the case of Canada. The total amount of fentanyl seized along the northern border is about the size of a sack of flour, and the number of illegal border crossings is something like 7% of the US total. There's not even a hint of a legitimate national security issue here.
I know that courts are loath to insert themselves into national security disputes, but isn't there a limit? I think it was John Roberts who wrote that courts are required to take government justifications seriously, but they aren't required to pretend to be idiots. This seems like a case that could fit his dictum.
Paul Krugman, per his latest Substack post, seems to think there will be a legal challenge. I hope he’s right.
There are going to be enough legal challenges from just his first two weeks to tie SCOTUS up for the next 5 years.
And what makes him think Trump will comply with unfavorable court decisions?
And what makes him think Trump will comply with unfavorable court decisions?
If they start ignoring judicial rulings, we really are off to the races in terms of a constitutional crisis, or indeed (if one prefers blunter language) a coup. No argument here.
But they haven't ignored the ruling (from a Republican judge, no less) on birthright citizenship, and this goes to the heart of their policy goals.
So, the evidence suggests at this point they don't have the stomach for it. But I'll update my priors if that changes.
They smashed in the heads of cops trying to prevent them from effecting a violent coup.
They then renamed all of the violent felons “patriots” and pardoned them.
You think they give a flying crap about what some judge in a robe says?
They haven’t worried about judges because their corrupt lapdogs on the Supreme Court have already said they’re above the law.
Wake up. Sheesh.
Of course there will be. That's according to plan. He can then complain about legislation from the bench and the court will stop the tariffs before they can cause real inflation.
As against Legislating by the executive?
Please. Roberts has no core other than what needs to be written or said to justify the decision immediately in front of him.
Except when it is immunity for Trump. Then the sky's the limit, even if they have to throw out the constitution and everything the founders said about the presidency.
But if they WANT to pretend they're idiots -- and they pretty clearly do, at least when it comes to the Senile Orange Guy -- ain't nobody gonna stop 'em. Plus "presidents are normally accorded great deference in matters of trade and tariffs" blah blah blah, so I'd doubt the issue would ever even get to the Supremes.
And look, NOBODY (okay, nobody except his
droolingly stupidignorant and credulous followers) thinks this is about "national security" or anything else rational or substantive. Nor does he have much if any substantive understanding of what the economic effects will be, and to the extent he does, he doesn't care.As many have observed, this is pure dominance display (plus perhaps some direct or indirect bribery, or the lack of it). He's doing it because it makes him feel good and because he thinks it'll play well with the
idiot rubeslow-information voters, who he knows won't remember it when it bites them any more than a goldfish remembers the last trip around the bowl.Starts on Tuesday sure seems to suggest we'll wait and see what the market does on Monday.
Friday reaction was negative but started recovering toward the end, so I'll guess it'll generally be wait-and-see, which means other things will affect it more.
From what I can see, though, the overall vibe is nervous. He's clearly impulsive and badly economically ignorant, and his decisions are affected to a significant (although uncertain, which itself is bad) degree by whichever random staffer or sycophant has his ear last and/or who is bribing him under the table. Half-senile grampa has the keys AND the wheel, and some of the big-money passengers are getting antsy.
I would suggest keeping the option open to get the hell out of stocks in a hurry.
You can't beat the market as an ordinary person. The die is cast and we don't have the insider info that Congress has to beat the market.
> ...courts are loath to insert themselves...but isn't there a limit?
This Supreme Court? Nope.
Meanwhile
I am sure this is fine. Nothing to be concerned with here from the one everyone assured us was the adult in the administration.
"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave representatives of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency full access to the federal payment system late on Friday. Mr. Bessent granted access to the payments system to a handful of staff members affiliated with DOGE, including Tom Krause, the chief executive of a Silicon Valley company, Cloud Software Group."
Agree. This is really disturbing. Where is the outrage?
By design, there is so much outrage no one can focus. There's a constitutional crisis unfolding in front of us and the sane people can't muster up an opposition strategy.
This stuff is strange, but personally I’m more concerned about what Musk is doing. Between that and the stuff happening with the FBI and DOJ it feels like we are already a totalitarian state. I always thought such a thing was possible but never dreamed it could happen so quickly.
It was well planned. Once they have control of the payment systems, they will decide who gets paid - no more of this congress sticking their noses in. It also allows them to use money as way to keep order, you either play ball or the check doesn't go out.
And it's beyond feeling like a totalitarian state, it's there. There has been a successful coup of our government.
Yes. We need a plan to restore democracy. It’s clear that the 119th Congress will not restrain TFM or the oligarchs backing him, and it hardly seems likely that the Supreme Court that granted him broad immunity will suddenly reverse.
And it’s not just a matter of ousting the current gang, but closing the path to power that they exploited. Ideally, drastic campaign finance reform, reversal of the money-is-speech decision, legislation or amendment to establish the President as subject to the law, and (let me dream) steeply progressive wealth taxes.
Even if SCOTUS were to act, what are they going to do? Give him a stern talking to? They have no power if nobody enforces the law.
When people like Kevin are taken off line we will know the takeover is complete.
Canada is the best neighbor state a nation ever had. Only an idiot would slap a 25% tariff on those guys and only 10% on China.
Ivanka does not have patents in Canada
Can we please stop saying 10% on China. It is an additional 10% above the existing targeted tariffs on specific product types. Also the elimination of the de minimis exemption* is arguably the much larger story that everybody seems to be missing. The 1 million Temu packages sent per day are now subject to import duties and must be inspected by customs. And that is just one company. There is also Shein and AliExpress and dozens of others. Good luck finding the customs and border patrol people to deal with that while also expanding efforts to roundup and deport people.
*packages under $800 sent to an individual used to be exempt from customs
Canada has allowed itself to become economically dependent on the US because Canadian governments have trusted the US. The tariffs are a lesson, and not just for Canada, about the unwisdom of trusting the US.
What a hoser.
Roberts doesn't need to pretend about that any more-- his immunity ruling made his intellectual capacities and fealty to the constitution as we've known it clear as crystal. It would be astounding at this point for him to act as you suggest. Even though I think every prior chief justice in our history would, including Taney.
For a Chief Justice that the political class all thought was concerned for his legacy, he’s set it on fire and jumped up and down on the ashes.
“No way in hell will I let a nobody like Roger Freaking Taney go down as the most infamous chief justice in history!”
The tariffs are lunacy, and I assume even more enters the country via other paths but a sack of flour is 50 lbs or 22-23 kg. And per https://www.dea.gov/resources/facts-about-fentanyl
As a check, that is also in the Jan 7 (ie pre-inaugural) version of the page: https://web.archive.org/web/20250107033628/https://www.dea.gov/resources/facts-about-fentanyl
And so we are going to wage economic war on our closest and most steadfast ally over a sack of deadly flour?
Precisely how is Canada supposed to keep Americans from demanding access to this sack of flour?
None of this is relevant.
You know what's happening right now? The tariff retaliation by Canada and Trudeau's nationwide address tonight has increased his popularity to the point to where some are asking whether he'll rescind his resignation.
What's interesting is Doug Ford, CPC Provincial Premire of Ontario has been against Trump's tariffs as well and it has increased his popularity too. In fact, he's called a snap provincial election to increase the CPC's majority in the OPP, to perhaps one day become leader of Canadian Tories because....
....current leader Pierre Poilievre took a pro-Trump line, especially during the U.S. Presidential election. Bad move pal. The Liberals could very well form another coalition government with the NDP under a new leader.
The fact that Ford has come out against Trump is interesting because his deceased brother, Rob Ford, was very much a Trump-like figure in becoming Mayor of Toronto in the teens before being forced to resign. In fact one could say his rise forshadowed Trump. Doug at least has a better head on his shoulders and doesn't smoke crack.
What a way to interfere in Canadian politics Don!
And likewise, it seems that the Alberta premier Smith is also on board with the unified response-- important because it's the major oil-exporting province and historically the most pro-American and the most at odds with Ottawa and central Canada.
It's where Poilievre is originally from, which explains a lot about him. But as you say, he's been ostentatiously playing footsie with trump and MAGA ever since covid, most clearly a couple of years ago during the trucker protests in Ottawa and at border checkpoints and during the emergencies act response. Since then he's been working hard to position himself as a centrist too, but that's part of his image. As opposition leader he's been extremely effective in spite of cultivating the loony right-- very quick, eye for the jugular, good with bumper-sticker phrases (Dems here could learn from his methods, and should, but I digress).
Since our election he's been distancing himself from MAGA and was all set to sweep in at their next election. And likely would have annihilated the national Liberals absent this tariff war. So this puts him in a real pickle, and a halfway-skilled politico will be able to slice him to ribbons over his coziness with trumpism if it isn't resolved very, very quickly (which will be up to trump, not the Canadians).
Ford is a very shrewd politician and doesn't have the weirdness baggage his brother did, just erratic in his positions. If Poilievre keeps the leadership, which is what I'd ultimately bet on, the Liberals certainly have a new lease on life as of tonight. Maybe even Trudeau personally, we'll see.
Needless assault on a well-disposed ally with troubles of its own, and maybe he felt that as weakness. But it will cause real hardship up there and down here alike, and all for a few bucks that can go to tax cuts for his rich buddies.
They must be feeling like their sometimes bothersome neighbor's house has been sold to a loud gang of louts knocking over all the fences and driving over everybody else's lawns at all hours.
While for us here it's like Elon and his Droogs have been let loose kicking over everything in the Treasury Department.
Canada should impose a 60-day pause on oil exports.
Sure, it would be costly, but I’d love to see every MAGA moron in the Upper Midwest in 1973-style four-hour lines to buy 10 gallons of gas at $10 a gallon.
The national security threat is the GOP and their craven ass-licking. Without them, the MAGA would die off on a withered vine. They give it power, so let them and their own feel the pain of allowing a total fucking idiot to lead the country down the same path Rome took.
If only the rest of us weren’t being dragged down that path.
Chevron doctrine is gone. So courts are free to not defer to whatever executive branch officer signed off on abrogating the trade treaty.
I would like to tell government workers,
Don't quit your job until you're fired. As long as you're there you're a witness.
Thank you. I'm not quitting BTW.
The only idiots are [people like Drum who think the corrupt Republicans currently cosplaying as "justices" of the United States Supreme Court have a limit to their enabling of their orange master.
The Court will save us! Lol!
There is no chance of this and you know it.